2018 BAFTA's

For the films of 2018
FilmFan720
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by FilmFan720 »

Sabin wrote:
FilmFan720 wrote
In a similar vein, could Jonathan Pryce be this year's Maggie Gyllenhaal?
I thought so... but there's really no excuse for him to miss out on a BAFTA nom is there?

Good point. Hadn't thought of that.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by Sabin »

FilmFan720 wrote
In a similar vein, could Jonathan Pryce be this year's Maggie Gyllenhaal?
I thought so... but there's really no excuse for him to miss out on a BAFTA nom is there?
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by criddic3 »

FilmFan720 wrote:
MaxWilder wrote:
Sabin wrote:Could Linda Cardellini become this year's Jacki Weaver and just roll up on Green Book's coattails?
That's...actually a great call. She was mentioned/thanked/praised a few times in those Green Book acceptance speeches, putting her name in voters' minds at just the right time. I can see this happening.
In a similar vein, could Jonathan Pryce be this year's Maggie Gyllenhaal?

You have a never-awarded veteran who is a strong contender for their first lead Oscar in a film that isn't in the running anywhere else (I know, Crazy Heart had the song, but neither film is a real picture/director/writer contender). After winning the Globe, there's a chance that The Wife moved up a little bit in people's screener piles if they hadn't seen it already. Jonathan Pryce seems like the sort of person who people would see in the film and think, "I've always liked him...let's give him a nomination."

This is a race that seems muddled: Sam Elliott can't get traction, Timothee Chalamet got the GG/SAG/BAFTA trifecta for a film no one seems to be talking about at all (and that just came to Amazon Prime with seemingly no buzz), and Sam Rockwell picked up GG and BAFTA for, it seems, merely being a recent winner in a film that is getting some attention. There seems to be a lot of wiggle room in this category, and this could be a surprise nomination for a veteran supporting actor.
Jonathan Pryce is fine in the film, as is for that matter Christian Slater, but supporting actor has other potential surprise nominees like Michael B. Jordan or even Hugh Grant.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by FilmFan720 »

MaxWilder wrote:
Sabin wrote:Could Linda Cardellini become this year's Jacki Weaver and just roll up on Green Book's coattails?
That's...actually a great call. She was mentioned/thanked/praised a few times in those Green Book acceptance speeches, putting her name in voters' minds at just the right time. I can see this happening.
In a similar vein, could Jonathan Pryce be this year's Maggie Gyllenhaal?

You have a never-awarded veteran who is a strong contender for their first lead Oscar in a film that isn't in the running anywhere else (I know, Crazy Heart had the song, but neither film is a real picture/director/writer contender). After winning the Globe, there's a chance that The Wife moved up a little bit in people's screener piles if they hadn't seen it already. Jonathan Pryce seems like the sort of person who people would see in the film and think, "I've always liked him...let's give him a nomination."

This is a race that seems muddled: Sam Elliott can't get traction, Timothee Chalamet got the GG/SAG/BAFTA trifecta for a film no one seems to be talking about at all (and that just came to Amazon Prime with seemingly no buzz), and Sam Rockwell picked up GG and BAFTA for, it seems, merely being a recent winner in a film that is getting some attention. There seems to be a lot of wiggle room in this category, and this could be a surprise nomination for a veteran supporting actor.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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Mister Tee wrote:
MaxWilder wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:I had Blunt pegged until I actually saw Mary Poppins Returns and poor Emily Blunt gets lost in the ensemble.
There are long stretches of the movie where she's either not in the scene or off to the side, not talking. It's insane and baffling, to put it mildly.
I think Emily Blunt getting a lead actress nomination for Mary Poppins Returns was one of those Ideas that permeated the blogosphere prior to release and has hung around on inertia, with no real reason behind it. The film got far worse reviews than imagined and, while its gross is something First Man or Widows would have craved, it's not been big enough to offset the general ho-hum surrounding the entire project. I'd say Emily Blunt, if she's in the conversation at all this year, would have a better likelihood at a best actress nod for A Quiet Place. (Not that I'd do it myself, but if there's a spot to do a Kate Winslet/Reader category bump, that's it.)
"Mary Poppins Returns" has a 78% Fresh Rating on RT, with 230 positive reviews (average of 7.3/10) with only 65 negative reviews. Metacritic has it at 66, but a much smaller sampling of critics (merely 54 reviews), calling it "generally favorable."

I saw it with family and we were all quite entertained. I thought Blunt did an admirable job of making the role her own while honoring Julie Andrews' performance. Not an easy balance to pull off. At this point I'd say a nomination for Blunt for this role could go either way, but I would think she'd have a better chance for this than her very good work in "A Quiet Place," which I had thought was a lead when I saw it. I think the entire cast was campaigned for support, which is rather odd.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
Incidentally, I disagree it’s a weak year in the category. By me, King, Adams, Weisz and Stone are easily deserving of note (though the latter is closer to lead), and Foy is a perfectly solid ballot filler (as would be the till-now-ignored Debicki). If you want to argue that no one jumps out as obvious winner, I wouldn’t strenuously argue. But that’s not the same as calling the field weak.
True. It's not weak. There's just no obvious winner. This is the first time since 2007 where we're toying with the notion of a repeat winner (if it happens, it will be the first time in 1994).

As I write this, I realize perhaps I'm underrating Amy Adams. This will likely be her sixth nomination. I might not think that she did enough to warrant an Oscar, but I've felt that way about previous winners.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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FilmFan720 wrote:
Sabin wrote:
flipp525 wrote
Who am I missing?
Thomasin McKenzie, but have enough people seen that film?
Maybe those that have think the idea of her as supporting is laughable.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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MaxWilder wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:I had Blunt pegged until I actually saw Mary Poppins Returns and poor Emily Blunt gets lost in the ensemble.
There are long stretches of the movie where she's either not in the scene or off to the side, not talking. It's insane and baffling, to put it mildly.
I watched the original Mary Poppins a year or two ago -- first time in decades -- and, you know what? Julie Andrews has a pretty long disappearing act in the second half, as well. Shocked me.

I think Emily Blunt getting a lead actress nomination for Mary Poppins Returns was one of those Ideas that permeated the blogosphere prior to release and has hung around on inertia, with no real reason behind it. The film got far worse reviews than imagined and, while its gross is something First Man or Widows would have craved, it's not been big enough to offset the general ho-hum surrounding the entire project. I'd say Emily Blunt, if she's in the conversation at all this year, would have a better likelihood at a best actress nod for A Quiet Place. (Not that I'd do it myself, but if there's a spot to do a Kate Winslet/Reader category bump, that's it.)

Not that I have any idea who the fifth best actress nominee will be (assuming Close/Colman/McCarthy/Gaga all show up, as they do here). Any one of the names BJ mentions could take the slot; it's going to be random, whoever it is.

The two-day-old hysteria over Bohemian Rhapsody can calm down a bit: yes, it got a bunch of techs, and the certain Malek, but none of the glamour categories (I don't count Best British Film as important).

Green Book showed up here, but its miss in directing suggests its status in the race is somewhere between top and second tier. Ali will certainly stay in the supporting actor race -- it'll be interesting to see how many of the upcoming TV awards he can grab -- but I think our only deep worry about the film is its winning screenplay. (Though not here at BAFTA: I'd faint dead away if The Favourite failed to win.)

Roma did about as well as could be hoped, short of an Aparicio nod (which has always struck me a deep long-shot: she's a non-professional, and it's just not that kind of part. If people think Amy Adams doesn't have enough big scenes -- something on which I disagree, by the way -- how can they argue for Aparicio?).

A Star is Born got the top-line citations, but was soft in the lower echelons -- no Elliott or editing, to indicate the film really has immense popularity. Such omissions at the edges may not hurt in the end -- remember how we over-interpreted every shortfall for 12 Years a Slave? -- but they don't seem to point to a King's Speech sort of romp ahead. I do think the Globe wipeout will have us all wary of Cooper's film the rest of the way.

And then there's BlackkKlansman, which continues to quietly rack up everything it needs. Its worst news of the day was missing under editing, which barely qualifies. BAFTA continues to have a reputation for ignoring black artists -- where are you, Regina King? --but they came through bigtime for Spike. Since I remain agnostic about the entire best picture race this year, I can't help wondering if BlackkKlansman could have a right place/right time scenario for lucking into a win at AMPAS. (Again, not here: I see The Favourite as the clear likelihood here, with Spike relegated to adapted screenplay.)

It's weird that First Man did so well in the undercard categories, but missed the one where it seemed to have its best shot at winning, score. The haul it did get (including supporting actress and screenplay) reinforces my thought that the film isn't utterly out of the running for a best picture slot with the Academy (had BAFTA had up-to-ten nominees, it would have had an excellent chance at a nod, given its overall haul).

On the other hand, Black Panther. I wasn't much surprised at its failure under best picture/director -- BAFTA was the one group that resisted the siren call of Mad Max: Fury Road, so they seemed likely to steer clear of such a pulpy contender. But Mad Max did kick butt in their tech categories, so it's shocking to see Panther limited to one nomination (in its far from most impressive area).

Though people will inevitably lump them together for demographic reasons, I'd say the omissions for If Beale Street Could Talk are more for esthetic reasons. I've indicated how much I like the film, but it seems clear by now that large swaths of the awards-giving community are putting it in the Carol "too art-house" category. There's a chance the film could be rescued by AMPAS, the way Room was, but an equal possibility is it falls way short. The primary question is, what to make of Regina King? Her omission here – coupled with the SAG miss – is a dark cloud, and there’s no point trying to brush past it. She could well win the Broadcasters' prize – I expect it, in fact – but to have no chance at winning the other two TV awards puts her in the exact same spot as Sylvester Stallone a few years ago. Remember how, after the fact, we realized that the two places Stallone was left out were the ones with industry overlap? Same here. Perhaps we should also prepare ourselves for a repeat of the “it’s still ok; the other prizes were split” argument, since that’s likely to happen, as well. The best argument for why it’s different is, King had a massive run at the critics’ awards, which makes her more Rylance than Stalllone. But the way the season has gone, we’re going to be in doubt about the outcome right up the envelope-moment. For which I say, hooray.

Incidentally, I disagree it’s a weak year in the category. By me, King, Adams, Weisz and Stone are easily deserving of note (though the latter is closer to lead), and Foy is a perfectly solid ballot filler (as would be the till-now-ignored Debicki). If you want to argue that no one jumps out as obvious winner, I wouldn’t strenuously disagree. But that’s not the same as calling the field weak.

I was watching the live-stream of the nominations last night/early this morning, and I knew someone I’d been expecting was missing from the best actor slate (in favor of Coogan), but it wasn’t till I woke this morning that I realized who: Ethan Hawke. How bizarre, to have a sweep-the-top-critics performer fail to be nominated by three of the four TV precursors. The guy who won the minor critics as well, by landslide, is in the same category as Cotillard in Two Days, One Night: hoping a sliver of art-house fans sneak him onto the AMPAS ballot.

BAFTA went for a bunch of on-the-bubble candidates who seemed aided by carryover from breakthroughs last year: Chalamet, Robbie and Rockwell. I haven’t seen the first two, but Rockwell I find puzzling. Talk about someone who didn’t truly have much to do in his film: I found Carell both better and more integral to the film. Supporting actor still seems a fuzzy category to me, beyond Ali/Grant/Driver.

Still a ways to go, but everything so far seems to be setting up an uncharacteristically competitive Oscar year. Let’s make it happen.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by MaxWilder »

Sabin wrote:Could Linda Cardellini become this year's Jacki Weaver and just roll up on Green Book's coattails?
That's...actually a great call. She was mentioned/thanked/praised a few times in those Green Book acceptance speeches, putting her name in voters' minds at just the right time. I can see this happening.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by FilmFan720 »

Sabin wrote:
flipp525 wrote
Who am I missing?
Thomasin McKenzie, but have enough people seen that film?
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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flipp525 wrote
I actually thought that Margot Robbie was pretty good in MQOS. She was certainly more memorable as Elizabeth I than Ronan was as the title character. The “Your inferior?” line delivery was great. There was a slight edge of camp I thought she infused in the role that worked for the tone and design of her scenes. I wouldn’t begrudge her a nomination. Let’s just be honest: it’s a weak year for that category.
Shockingly.

Without having seen If Beale Street Could Talk, I can only find one precedent for Regina King winning the Oscar: it was 2018 and there aren't really any rules.

I've written about this elsewhere but:

I'd feel more bullish on Mary Queen of Scots if I felt like anyone really saw that film. It makes sense that the BAFTA's honored her. It's a British film. I don't totally understand her SAG nomination. For a movie like this, it seems like nominations for Production Design, Costume, and Makeup should be givens but they're not.

On paper, this should be Amy Adams' for the taking for Vice... if she had more to do. It would easily be her least impressive nomination. It's hard for me to see her winning.

If Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz weren't previous winners, they'd be walking away with it. If Isabelle Huppert had won in 2016, this race would be over. Emma Stone for The Favourite. Done.

Claire Foy has a Golden Globe and a BAFTA. I guess that puts her back in the race.

It seems crazy that Emily Blunt doesn't have an Oscar nomination yet. It's a weak race. People like A Quiet Place. I'm just saying... it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in a year where everything was a franchise film film.

Elizabeth Debicki is the Best Supporting Actress contender that never got started.

Could Linda Cardellini become this year's Jacki Weaver and just roll up on Green Book's coattails?

Nicole Kidman seemed like a great bet... but then Boy Erased just disappeared.

Who am I missing?
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by flipp525 »

I actually thought that Margot Robbie was pretty good in MQOS. She was certainly more memorable as Elizabeth I than Ronan was as the title character. The “Your inferior?” line delivery was great. There was a slight edge of camp I thought she infused in the role that worked for the tone and design of her scenes. I wouldn’t begrudge her a nomination. Let’s just be honest: it’s a weak year for that category.

I’m also beginning to doubt Regina King’s chances at the Oscars. She seems to be a very soft frontrunner if she can even be called that anymore. I think one of The Favourite women should win. I don’t give a shit that they both already have Oscars. They were both exceptional, especially Emma Stone who I’ve never really enjoyed and whose first two nominations felt very lackluster to me (including her awful win for La La Land).
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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Precious Doll wrote:If Emily Blunt had just walked away half way during the film never to return I doubt many people would even noticed or cared.
I could be watching Lawrence of Arabia and it would bother me that Emily Blunt was not on screen. Imagine how I felt during Mary Poppins Returns.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

Post by Precious Doll »

MaxWilder wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:I had Blunt pegged until I actually saw Mary Poppins Returns and poor Emily Blunt gets lost in the ensemble.
There are long stretches of the movie where she's either not in the scene or off to the side, not talking. It's insane and baffling, to put it mildly.
If Emily Blunt had just walked away half way during the film never to return I doubt many people would even noticed or cared.
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Re: 2018 BAFTA's

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The Original BJ wrote:Thankfully we were spared Bohemian Rhapsody in the top category
It was nominated for Best British Film. :cry:
The Original BJ wrote:I don't really know what to say about Margot Robbie continually showing up for nominations.
I read she's been meeting-and-greeting. I'd like to scoff but if Margot Robbie even looked in my general direction I'd do whatever she asked.
Precious Doll wrote:I had Blunt pegged until I actually saw Mary Poppins Returns and poor Emily Blunt gets lost in the ensemble.
There are long stretches of the movie where she's either not in the scene or off to the side, not talking. It's insane and baffling, to put it mildly.
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