Screen Actors Guild Awards

For the films of 2018
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by flipp525 »

BJ: On the Margot Robbie nomination, it seems like she’s been available for a lot of in-person hobknobbing with voters.

This is from The Hollywood Reporter: “The committee tends to reward talent who are available to do post-screening Q&As and gladhanding (lovely Robbie certainly wasn't hurt by pressing the flesh), as opposed to others who are unavailable or unwilling to do so (it may have kept her co-star Saoirse Ronan, who has been in production on another film, from joining her on the list of nominees)."
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by The Original BJ »

There is a lot of fraud going on.

After that initial surge of critics' prizes seemed to give it some real heat, First Reformed is performing with the televised groups at more or less the level I thought it would when I saw it, when I assumed it would just be too tiny to make an impact. I agree Hawke might still have a chance at an Oscar nod, but it's also possible the film's miniscule gross (under $3.5 million) will keep it more of an Indie Spirit player.

The reviews for Mary Poppins Returns have started to come out, and they seem just okay. I think Blunt's Best Actress nomination could still transfer over to the Oscars -- she's been waiting on a first nomination for a while, has had a great year, and a lot of her competitors are in divisive/underseen movies. But I still think a Best Picture nomination would be totally uncharacteristic, like nominating a Harry Potter film in that category.

Bohemian Rhapsody over The Favourite and Vice (which clearly they did see) is bananas.

It sure feels like this is the Oscar list in Supporting Actor. The double category fraud is depressing, but at the same time, I can't really come up with a lot of alternates I'd be desperate to see included.

Although I couldn't imagine it would extend to omitting Regina King, I thought If Beale Street Could Talk's artiness might be an issue with this group, which is the main reason I didn't predict it in Ensemble despite obviously qualifying. My hope is that King still takes the Globe and keeps this race up-in-the-air, rather than someone else emerging as a new front-runner.

I haven't seen Mary Queen of Scots yet, so I have no idea what to make of Margot Robbie's nomination. Is she being underestimated? Ditto Blunt in A Quiet Place?
MaxWilder
Graduate
Posts: 238
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by MaxWilder »

Mister Tee wrote:Speaking of McCarthy: Max, have you seen Can You Ever Forgive Me?, or is your annoyance with McCarthy personal? Because I think she's sensational in her film -- right up there with Colman as my choice.
She should not be forgiven (har-har) so quickly for The Happytime Murders. Not to mention the other dismal titles she has cranked out in the past ~5 years.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
But, seriously: the real shock in the category is how generally lame it is -- it rivals the 2007 roster, where No Country for Old Men was the only serious best picture contender to qualify. Here, A Star is Born fills that role -- I expect it to win here, unless either Black Panther or Crazy Rich Asians pulls a Hidden Figures surprise.
Black Panther will.
Mister Tee wrote
Overall, the best actress slate could carry over to AMPAS, but there are so many "other" candidates (Colette, Kidman, etc.) that surprise is not out of the question, with Blunt seemingly most vulnerable.
One of Emily Blunt's biggest opponents could be Emily Blunt. She's a lead in A Quiet Place by any standard. Like Kate Winslet for The Reader, maybe she ends up a Best Actress nominee for A Quiet Place? She's having a great year, she's certainly due for a nomination, and she's very good in the film.
Mister Tee wrote
ON EDIT: I never could understand the push for Michael B. Jordan (esp. the blogger who compared him to Ledger in The Dark Knight), but can we agree he kind of needed to show up here, at the most populist group, to really have a shot at an Oscar nod?
Yes, he's done.
I never thought he'd be like Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, but (just like the film) he had a better chance at a nomination than many on this board were even willing to consider. At this point, Best Supporting Actor seems like the most solidified race we have: Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott, and Grant. Sam Rockwell at this point might be the spoiler but I don't know who he would upset.
Mister Tee wrote
The Regina King omission upended what seemed the one sure thing this year's Oscars had (well, apart from best song). What explanation could there be?; it's not as if the film hasn't had months of festival exposure.
Not enough people saw the film.
Mister Tee wrote
The question might come down to, who wins here at SAG? If, say, voters further indulge their Emily Blunt jones and pick her, it'd be meaningless.
Emily Blunt could win the Oscar for A Quiet Place. Why not? She's British so she could get a BAFTA nod possibly. She's a lead, but so is Ali this year and he could win. "It's not serious?" Uh... Hollywood isn't a very serious place right now, and they're VERY proud of A Quiet Place, which is a horror film that older voters can enjoy as well.
Mister Tee wrote
If they go for one of the Favourite ladies, Oscar voters might say, thanks, but we've already given them our prize.
Withholding judgment until I see the film, but prob.
Mister Tee wrote
If Amy Adams wins, though...her long-denied route to Oscar could finally be in sight.
I'd feel more bullish on her chances had I not seen the film. She just doesn't have enough to do. That said, just being Amy Adams in a weak field might be enough.
"How's the despair?"
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19312
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:Oh, and, Magilla: Blunt isn't "arguably" the lead in A Quiet Place, any more than McCarthy is arguably the lead in her film.
I was being diplomatic.
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8636
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Mister Tee »

First shocker in Best Cast was finding out the "A" in A Star is Born apparently put it alphabetically first.

Second was Bohemian Rhapsody showing up at all. I'd been meaning to mention: my friend who's an Academy member told me last week that, when he and his wife go to Academy screenings and events, the three films that get mentioned the most to him are Roma, A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. People are just ENJOYING the damn thing. Nonetheless, I was utterly unprepared for this.

But, seriously: the real shock in the category is how generally lame it is -- it rivals the 2007 roster, where No Country for Old Men was the only serious best picture contender to qualify. Here, A Star is Born fills that role -- I expect it to win here, unless either Black Panther or Crazy Rich Asians pulls a Hidden Figures surprise. As we know, No County went on to a surprisingly easy best picture victory in '07. We'll find out if that history repeats, or if this merger with AFTRA has genuinely changed SAG's value as super-precursor.

Even more seriously: the omission of The Favourite is insane. It's the one true indie hit of the Oscar contenders, and is an actors' picture par excellence. Had it been nominated, I'd have bet it to win.

In the acting categories:

Ethan Hawke seems the kind of hip choice that can make the Oscar ballot despite failing here. (Who's most hurt is Willem Dafoe, who was hoping to travel that same route, and will now have to compete with Hawke.) Without a Globe or SAG nod, though, Hawke has essentially no path to developing a serious challenge to Cooper. I'd have to say Bale now stands as Cooper's prime opposition.

Emily Blunt's knack for grabbing SAG and Globe nominations seems inversely correlated to her failures with AMPAS. I still have no idea whether to take this Mary Poppins thing seriously (i.e., for above-the-line nominations). Oh, and, Magilla: Blunt isn't "arguably" the lead in A Quiet Place, any more than McCarthy is arguably the lead in her film.

Speaking of McCarthy: Max, have you seen Can You Ever Forgive Me?, or is your annoyance with McCarthy personal? Because I think she's sensational in her film -- right up there with Colman as my choice.

The Glenn Close "is this the real life/is this just fantasy?" tour continues. She's getting all the nominations she needs to keep hope alive. But the win stage is where the rubber meets the road. See you at the Globes for chapter one. (How's that for some mixed metaphors?)

Overall, the best actress slate could carry over to AMPAS, but there are so many "other" candidates (Colette, Kidman, etc.) that surprise is not out of the question, with Blunt seemingly most vulnerable.

Supporting actor could also repeat at the Oscars. I'm not sure who to expect to win even at SAG -- Elliott will be the most widely seen by far, but his part is smallish; Ali's film is popular enough, but he just won two years ago; Chalamet and Grant are widely admired, but their films are commercially soft. Is it possible Adam Driver has the same "just enough of everything" that I described his film having, and could pull an inertial win?

ON EDIT: I never could understand the push for Michael B. Jordan (esp. the blogger who compared him to Ledger in The Dark Knight), but can we agree he kind of needed to show up here, at the most populist group, to really have a shot at an Oscar nod?

The Regina King omission upended what seemed the one sure thing this year's Oscars had (well, apart from best song). What explanation could there be?; it's not as if the film hasn't had months of festival exposure. She could still win the Oscar if the other TV prizes go unanimously her way, but we'll have to see on that (Dafoe and Metcalf can tell you how much critics' awards mean when the TV round starts). The question might come down to, who wins here at SAG? If, say, voters further indulge their Emily Blunt jones and pick her, it'd be meaningless. If they go for one of the Favourite ladies, Oscar voters might say, thanks, but we've already given them our prize. If Amy Adams wins, though...her long-denied route to Oscar could finally be in sight.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

MaxWilder wrote
I really wonder if the BR fans in SAG could name more than three actors in it.
To be fair, being able to name the actors isn't criteria for a good ensemble cast. Wanting to be able to name the actors is.

THOUGHTS:
-- One of the two big question marks around A Star is Born was whether or not it was going to be rewarded for its ensemble (the other being script). The actors clearly loved this film despite its small cast. They had other alternatives: The Favourite, Green Book, Vice, and Widows. That being said, The Shape of Water had just as rough competition last year failing to get a nomination over The Big Sick and Mudbound. This is a very good day for the guy who spent $71 on A Star is Born in my Oscar league.

-- I had a hunch that John David Washington was going to do well with this crowd. I was too wussy to swap out him for Ethan Hawke. I still think Hawke has the leg-up at the Oscars though. It's hard to imagine the BAFTA's falling in line between JDW considering his Dad has zero Oscars to his name. I just watched BlacKKKlansman again recently and John David Washington's contributions to the film are very easy to undervalue. The film walks a tightrope between comedy and drama throughout and he has the right amount of tongue in cheek.

-- Best Supporting Actor is going to be this.

-- Best Actress is going to be this?

-- Is it anti-indie bias that Regina King lost a nomination or do people just love A Quiet Place that much? I can't properly emphasize how nerdy Hollywood has gotten and I think A Quiet Place might do better than some people think. That said, did SAG just pave the way for an Amy Adams victory or is this thing still massively up in the air?
"How's the despair?"
MaxWilder
Graduate
Posts: 238
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by MaxWilder »

Sabin wrote:What a mainstream group of nominations
Especially the Bohemian Rhapsody ensemble nomination. Whenever people say good things about that movie, they couch it in anti-critic, snobs-vs.-slobs screed. It's this year's The Greatest Showman.

I really wonder if the BR fans in SAG could name more than three actors in it.

At least today was a break from Roma.
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19312
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Big Magilla »

The SAG nominations, as we know, depend on who the randomly selected nominators are. Now that it's the combined SAG-AFTRA membership that is involved, it's not that surprising to see two films containing lots of music among the cast picks, although one would think that Mary Poppins Returns would be a more likely choice than Bohemian Rhapsody.

Male lead actor is highly competitive this year, so it isn't at all surprising that Ethan Hawke, Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe and Lucas Hedges missed the mark. Lead actress and lead supporting male are the likely Oscarf nominees. Supporting female is odd for several reasons. Emily Blunt didn't need a second nomination, especially for what is arguably her film's lead performance. A nomination for Queen Elizabeth (Margot Robbie) in a film about Mary, Queen of Scots receiving a nomination when Mary herself (Saoirse Ronan) did not is a real head-scratcher. One thing's for sure, we will no longer have to wonder if Regina King will tread an unbroken path to the Oscar amongst the major precursors.

R.I.P. - Supporting Actress Oscar campaigns for Claire Foy and Nicole Kidman.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

What a mainstream group of nominations
"How's the despair?"
mlrg
Associate
Posts: 1746
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by mlrg »

Ethan Hawke is your usual critics darling, failed to get GG and SAG, kind of Oscar nominee
MaxWilder
Graduate
Posts: 238
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by MaxWilder »

Bohemian Rhapsody?? (Insert queasy emoji.) This has to be one of the more obscure casts nominated. It's Rami Malek, incognito Mike Myers and some British character actors.

This has to be a case of SAG voters treating best ensemble as best picture. Was anyone talking about that cast?

Supporting actress is a total shocker.

That's it, I have to accept that Melissa McCarthy will be nominated. :cry:

I just noticed no Ethan Hawke. What the shit. :x

I'm quite let down. For some reason I thought SAG was more discerning than this. I can only blame myself for that.
Last edited by MaxWilder on Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 6374
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by anonymous1980 »

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Crazy Rich Asians”
mlrg
Associate
Posts: 1746
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by mlrg »

Can someone please post the full set of nominees?
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by flipp525 »

Well, they sure liked Emily Blunt! Two kind of unexpected nominations for her (Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place). Remember that she placed here in Best Actress for The Girl on the Train.

I’m shocked by the Regina King snub. And continually confused by the awards attention for Adam Driver.

The Ensemble nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody is out of left field.

I have never bought into Claire Foy as a supporting nominee.
Last edited by flipp525 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Post Reply

Return to “91st Academy Awards”