Screen Actors Guild Awards

For the films of 2018
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8636
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Mister Tee »

MaxWilder wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:etc.
Great insights, as usual. You spoil us!
You do me honor, sir.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
(Sabin feels so strongly about this, he gives the film two slots.)
Ugh, two typos. I was having a day....

I liked what you were saying about the Best Cast Award being an essential gatekeeper towards an Oscar win. Last year, I became mildly fanatical about how no film had won Best Picture without a Best Cast nomination since Braveheart. I saw The Shape of Water’s omission as a soft indicator that it wouldn’t end up winning. I came around on Oscar day because, well, it may not have got the nomination but it may as well have. It had a very strong cast. This year might test that theory even more.
"How's the despair?"
anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 6374
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by anonymous1980 »

MaxWilder wrote:
Are you sure Ryan Eggold (BlacKkKlansman) is ineligible for the ensemble award? That would be fairly ridiculous.
Oops. Okay, I have to address this. I have yet to see BlacKkKlansman. My basis for listing down some of the names is just educated guess work on who gets a solo title card in the film's main credits. According to SAG rules, only cast members who get solo title card credit gets the official nomination and a trophy if it wins. (Or in the case of something like a Woody Allen movie where everyone is credited in one title card credit, those credited in the first title card).

This has been a bone of contention of some awards bloggers and critics because more often than not, newcomers/unknowns who do have important roles in the films nominated often get left out of the nomination because they don't get a solo title card and big-name stars who have glorified cameos get included because they have solo title cards.
MaxWilder
Graduate
Posts: 238
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by MaxWilder »

Mister Tee wrote:etc.
Great insights, as usual. You spoil us!
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by flipp525 »

Mister Tee wrote:I’m a bit surprised BJ omitted If Beale Street Could Talk, though of course he has the advantage over me of having seen the film. From all that I can glean, the film is middle-pack and has a fairly sprawling cast, which would seem to make it a strong prospect.
I have to piggyback onto this. One of the strongest scenes in If Beale Street Could Talk is an extended ensemble scene (several characters’ only scene in the film) that I think reverberates throughout the rest of the movie. Picking up an Ensemble nod here would also satisfy my season-long desire to award Brian Tyree Henry in a cameo that I think has been missing from the Supporting Actor awards discussion.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8636
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Mister Tee »

I’m not going to map out individual acting categories because, as BJ says, there are too many things we don’t know: whether some late efforts were even seen, what kind of screener operation various films had, and the eternal question, who was on this year’s nominating committee? There can be lunatic, where-did-that-come-from? inclusions (Woman in Gold) or equally insane omissions (Damon in The Martian I’ll never understand).

But I do want to go through Best Cast, because it’s the most unique category -- not strictly an Oscar Best Picture forecaster, though it shares elements – and because it has the slipperiest standards. We know it usually traffics in the same films from which other groups, and eventually AMPAS, select nominees. But it shuns films that don’t focus on actors (leaving, say, something like Dunkirk out in the cold) and tends to prefer larger, even expansive casts to small ones, no matter how accomplished (cue La La Land). And it, too, can throw in a WTF? choice, like Captain Fantastic, or Trumbo. It really is a hybrid, and thus more interesting to try and scope out.

And, of course, noteworthy in all this is that, somehow, with all those caveats, getting onto this slate has been, historically, an absolute must for a film hoping to win best picture at the Oscars. From 1996 (its second year) through 2014, no film omitted from the Best Cast category ever won AMPAS’ top prize. In 2015 and ’16, we had very good excuses for The Revenant and La La Land being SAG-omitted (one-man show and glorified two-hander, respectively), so, with trepidation, we predicted them for Oscars regardless – only to see each falter at the finish line, making us wonder in retrospect if a Best Cast designation was an ironclad precursor. That idea endured for exactly one year – at which point The Shape of Water, a film that had no excuse whatever for missing a SAG slot, did so, but ended up winning at the Oscars anyway. Which is to say, we’re in a kind of odd spot with the category just now.

Anyway…to go through some of this year’s most discussed films, and how they might or might not go over in SAG’s top category:

Roma fails on all kinds of levels here, without even getting into the black-and-white/subtitled aspect. The film is pure directorial vision, one of the least actor-centered films ever in competition for the top Oscar; on top of that, its central character is played by a first-time actress, with rest of the cast populated with unknowns. They might as well have put up a sign saying “Nothing for SAG here.” Put it this way: if, despite all this, Roma shows up on this list tomorrow, it’s going to have a bigger Oscar run than anyone imagines.

The Favourite’s only drawback is the smallish size of its cast – some might think of it as the three leading ladies and no one else. In rebuttal, you might throw in Nicholas Hoult and Joe Alwyn, but I’m not sure beefing up the roster that way is even necessary. I think this film operates like Sideways: the fact that the cast so clearly carries the film outweighs any hesitation over on cast size. I say it easily makes the cut. (Sabin feels so strongly about this, he gives the film two slots.)

I’ve heard some people express doubt about A Star is Born on a similar basis – analogizing Cooper/Gaga to Gosling/Stone in La La Land, thinking they’re the whole cast. But that’s short-sighted. Minimally, Sam Elliott and Andrew Dice Clay can be added, and the evil manager as well. Anyway, the whole thing is moot: it’d be unprecedented for a movie this obviously beloved to miss a SAG mention over a technicality. It’s in.

Vice has everything going for it to be included here – a hot film, a big and big-name cast, the director’s track record with the Guild. The only question, a big one, is: did it get screened in time? We’ll know the answer to that in the morning.

BlackkKlansman seems likely to turn up simply by having just enough of everything – it’s in the Oscar discussion (if not top 2-3), has a big enough cast (including semi-names), has done decent box-office, and is widely available for home viewing. That should serve it well in this year where many films fall short in one area or another.

I’m a bit surprised BJ omitted If Beale Street Could Talk, though of course he has the advantage over me of having seen the film. From all that I can glean, the film is middle-pack and has a fairly sprawling cast, which would seem to make it a strong prospect.

This will be one place where we find out how serious the Black Panther thing is. No other Marvel big-cast film has even threatened to take a spot here, but the film’s critical praise, staggering box office, and large/stellar cast combine to make it a decent prospect. It’ll be helped by the fact that, as I note, several of this year’s contenders aren’t terribly SAG-friendly. But a word of caution: The Dark Knight – our prime precedent – failed at SAG before it failed at the Oscars. So I don’t think it’s 100% certain.

I think BJ remains a bit too optimistic about Green Book being ignored. The film, as I feared, has rallied some at the box-office, holding on extremely well week-over-week, possibly turning into something of a success story. I also have yet to see the film, and I take BJ’s word that the film is limited in cast size, but that may be offset by the fact that there are actors who fall way too easily for this sort of slop. I wouldn’t put it past the film to score in this category.

I’m still dubious about the whole Mary Poppins Returns thing, but the combination of retread and late screening should at least keep it out of this category.

Were it not stigmatized as commercial failure, I’d think the cast of Widows would have a good shot, and I’m not ready to fully eliminate it even as is. (By the way: those who thought Widows’ low Cinemascore would make it a complete box-office dud were wrong; it’s held up reasonably/normally well. Its mediocre opening will prevent it from doing any better than mid-40s, but it didn’t do a full crash-and-burn.) But it’s strictly a long shot.

Finally, there’s always the possibility of a high-grossing, large-cast interloper – along the lines of The Butler or Bridesmaids. This year’s clear candidate is Crazy Rich Asians, which would have the subsidiary benefit of spotlighting a talented but mostly unknown cast. The Guild that once nominated My Big Fat Greek Wedding could very well go for the film.

So, all that said, my prediction:

BlackkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Alt.: Vice

…but, as detailed above, there’s lots of ways I could be wrong.
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by The Original BJ »

I'm going to make a few random predictions, just because SAG is never quite the match for "what everyone thinks will be Oscar-nominated" in every category.

One big question I have is whether or not enough voters saw the late releases. Last year, the films that didn't do the festival circuit (The Post and Phantom Thread) were left off here, despite Streep & Day-Lewis OBVIOUSLY being candidates that would have been included by this group. So I wonder if Vice and Mary Poppins Returns could both be excluded in a similar way this year. (If they saw them, I definitely think at least Vice does well.)

The other big question is how Best Actress will be filled out -- the other races seem to have really slimmed down to a core group of contenders, but the number of women who could still conceivably nab a Best Actress spot feels pretty big at this stage.

Anyway, my guesses:

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
A Star is Born
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

Reza wrote
Don't you think Jordan's nod as part of the ensemble in Black Panther is enough that he has to take this slot too? I think Chalamet will get this spot very easily.
These are not preference picks, Reza. I'm just saying what I think will end up getting nominated. Michael B. Jordan's performance in Black Panther was standout (even if I think it was more the role than his acting), it resonated with viewers, and since the SAG-AFTRA merger we've seen more and more black films and performances nominated in this competition.

I looked at all the performances in competition. Beautiful Boy did not do well at the box office and I wonder how widely seen it really was. Could be wrong. We'll find out.
"How's the despair?"
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10029
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Reza »

Sabin wrote:
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
BLACK PANTHER / Michael B. Jordan
Don't you think Jordan's nod as part of the ensemble in Black Panther is enough that he has to take this slot too? I think Chalamet will get this spot very easily.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

My bad
"How's the despair?"
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10029
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Reza »

Sabin wrote:[BEST LEAD MALE[/b]

BOY ERASED / Ethan Hawke

Comments: I'm just not sure they're going to like First Reformed more than Boy Erased.
I guess you really want Hawke to get in :D
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10740
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

BEST ENSEMBLE
BLACK PANTHER
BLACKKKLANSMAN
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVOURITE
VICE
Comments: This one is a little crowded. I think the fact that it has a small ensemble will work against A Star is Born. I'd be more bullish on Widows' chances if it were a hit.

BEST LEAD MALE
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY / Rami Malek
BOY ERASED / Lucas Hedges
GREEN BOOK / Viggo Mortensen
A STAR IS BORN / Bradley Cooper
VICE / Christian Bale
Comments: I'm just not sure they're going to like First Reformed more than Boy Erased.

BEST LEAD FEMALE
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Melissa McCarthy
THE FAVOURITE / Olivia Colman
A STAR IS BORN / Lady Gaga
WIDOWS / Viola Davis
THE WIFE / Glenn Close
Comments: the fifth spot in this lineup is tricky. I know they've seen Widows more than Destroyer. They like Davis and Widows probably played fine at home.

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
BLACK PANTHER / Michael B. Jordan
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Adam Driver
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Richard E. Grant
GREEN BOOK / Mahershala Ali
A STAR IS BORN / Sam Elliot
Comments: seven actors, five spots. Rockwell's part is too small. Chalamet... I just think the other actors are going to get more support.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
THE FAVOURITE / Emma Stone
THE FAVOURITE / Rachel Weisz
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK / Regina King
VICE / Amy Adams
WIDOWS / Elizabeth Debicki
Comments: the fifth spot is up in the air. I could've gone with Claire Foy (First Man bombed), Nicole Kidman (she should get something this year), Michelle Yeoh (esp. if they love Crazy Rich Asians), Leticia Wright (don't underestimate how much people loved Shuri in Black Panther)... but ultimately I settled on Debicki because if voters are watching Widows, she's a true standout worth getting excited about.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
ANT-MAN AND THE WASP
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
BLACK PANTHER
JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE -- FALLOUT
Last edited by Sabin on Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"How's the despair?"
MaxWilder
Graduate
Posts: 238
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by MaxWilder »

No Ethan Hawke? Bold.

Are you sure Ryan Eggold (BlacKkKlansman) is ineligible for the ensemble award? That would be fairly ridiculous.

I'm guessing Tom Cruise wouldn't be nominated if M:I-F gets a stunt ensemble nod. Can't they make an exception? Jeez.
anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 6374
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by anonymous1980 »

They announce Wednesday. My predictions:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MOTION PICTURE CAST

BlacKkKlansman
Harry Belafonte, Robert John Burke, Adam Driver, Topher Grace, Laura Harrier, Corey Hawkins, Jasper Pääkkönen and John David Washington.

The Favourite
Joe Alwyn, Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Nicholas Hoult, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz.

If Beale Street Could Talk
Michael Beach, Colman Domingo, Dave Franco, Brian Tyree Henry, Stephan James, Regina King, KiKi Layne, Diego Luna, Teyonah Parris, Pedro Pascal, Emily Rios, Ed Skrein and Finn Wittrock.

A Star Is Born
Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, Bradley Cooper, Sam Elliott, Lady Gaga, Ravi Gavron and Anthony Ramos.

Vice
Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Lisa Gay Hamilton, Justin Kirk, Eddie Marsan, Alison Pill, Tyler Perry, Jesse Plemons, Lily Rabe, Sam Rockwell and Shea Whigham.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale as Dick Cheney, Vice
Bradley Cooper as Jackson Maine, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe as Vincent van Gogh, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen as Frank "Tony Lip" Villelonga, Green Book

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close as Joan Castleman, The Wife
Olivia Colman as Queen Anne, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher as Kayla Day, Eighth Grade
Lady Gaga as Ally Maine, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy as Lee Israel, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali as Don Shirley, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet as Nic Sheff, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver as Det. Flip Zimmerman, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott as Bobby Maine, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant as Jack Hock, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams as Lynn Cheney, Vice
Claire Foy as Janet Armstrong, First Man
Regina King as Sharon Rivers, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone as Baroness Abigail Masham, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz as Duchess Sarah Churchill, The Favourite

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Ant Man and The Wasp
Aquaman
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Post Reply

Return to “91st Academy Awards”