Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

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flipp525 wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:The real-life mother of Tonya Harding disputes the characterization.

Well, I mean, of course she does!

I don't under the Renée Zellweger comparison on a performance level.

Both Janney and Zellweger's performances are exaggerations.

Here's one of several news articles on the real mother:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ton ... 18089.html

Big Magilla wrote:The real-life mother of Tonya Harding disputes the characterization.

Well, I mean, of course she does!

I don't understand the Renée Zellweger comparison on a performance level.

Big Magilla wrote: Janney, who may well be a really nice person, always seems to me to come off smug and entitled no matter what she says.

See: her repeat Emmy wins for "The West Wing" and subsequent speeches.

Janney's performance is fictional, too. The real-life mother of Tonya Harding disputes the characterization. Janney is about as true to life as Renée Zellweger in 2003's Cold Mountain who won at the Globes, SAG and Oscars after Shohreh Aghdashloo won the triple crown of critics awards (N.Y., L.A. and NSFC) for The House of Sand and Fog. Will history repeat itself?

OscarGuy wrote:Metcalf's performance isn't flashy, but Janney's is. I also think that Janney's requires something far more difficult: making an awful, hateful character credible and on very rare occasion identifiable.

Whereas Metcalf's character is identifiable throughout to women (and to men who grew up with sisters) who had the sort of conventional upbringing that isn't often the stuff of movies. Marion McPherson is fictional but very real. I've seen a million coming-of-age stories and Lady Bird was the first that left me a sobbing mess. I didn't see anything new in Janney's character. Didn't Melissa Leo just win an Oscar for playing an athlete's monstrous mother? One per decade is enough for me. I had misplaced hope in actors, more so than critics or the foreign press, appreciating what Metcalf had to do.

I haven't seen this anywhere, but Julia Louis-Dreyfus became the winningest person in SAG history last night. She now has 9 trophies.

Allison Janney and Frances McDormand each have three film SAG awards now, which is the most anyone has ever won (although 12 people have done that). McDormand is the only person ever to win two Best Lead Female Actor trophies.

MaxWilder wrote:
I've lost hope in either Dafoe or Metcalf winning the big one, much less both.

Dafoe might sneak in a win as the 'overdue veteran', as he has been in the film industry longer than Rockwell (I always have to go back and check his name). But having said that I do think that this is Rockwell's to loose.

I believe the studios pick the clips, not the awards shows themselves.

I think clips like these can also impact how future voters go. Metcalf's performance isn't flashy, but Janney's is. I also think that Janney's requires something far more difficult: making an awful, hateful character credible and on very rare occasion identifiable. Metcalf's performance is terrific, but it's on the subtle end, which is harder to appraise. Plus, it's always been clear that TV voters LOVE Janney. They have for years. She's always nominated and has more trophies than you can shake a stick at. Globe and SAG voters were bound to adore her. The Broadcast critics I don't quite understand. Of course, I think they are mostly all just populist assholes at times, though I do know a handful of voting members who genuinely do vote their opinions/consciences.

Further, I think that the larger the body of voters, the more likely less idiosyncratic choices prevail, which is why groups like BFCA, SAG, and the Academy tend to shift towards more populist films. And less I need to remind anyone that countless supporting frontrunners of the past, though seldom this quickly. I seem to recall everyone saying that season-long frontrunner Amy Ryan was just going to run away with the Oscar and I just felt that wasn't going to happen and I couldn't see Blanchett winning, so it took until BAFTA until I finally found the person who would take over the lead: Tilda Swinton. I think this is a similar case. Sometimes, critics go one direction, but it's towards a contender the Academy isn't likely to recognize. I think that's the whole Metcalf thing. I always thought Janney's showier performance was sure to do better eventually and it seems like that has borne itself out.

Big Magilla wrote:Alexander Skarsgard seemed genuinely embarrassed, as he said, to have won over Robert De Niro.

I got what he was going for but the joke sank like a stone. Sheepish delivery and at this point True Blood has no currency as a reference.

Olivia Munn and Niecy Nash's bit was painful. If you don't watch those shows, you won't get that they're joking about not watching those shows. My family was so lost.

I've lost hope in either Dafoe or Metcalf winning the big one, much less both. If only Brady & Belichick could take over their campaigns...

Does the later show this year mean a longer voting period?

Of course, one always hopes for some kind of surprise. Having seen Three Billboards, I know - and knew - that it had to win at least one acting prize (at the Oscars I mean). It's simply too well-acted, and even too showily acted, not to win SOMETHING. But I haven't seen most of the other possible nominees yet, so I'm wondering if there's still a chance for an upset - I guess in Best Actress (which still looks quite competitive in theory) rather than Best Supporting Actor.

But yes, these four could easily bring home Oscars, and at least three certainly will.

Now, if only Best Picture COULD surprise...

The show itself, however, was one of the better ones. Kristen Bell's dig at Melania Trump's lack of follow-through on her promise to fight cyberbullying was so subtle I doubt many actually got it, but it was hilarious if you did.

Rita Moreno brightened things up considerably with her presentation to Morgan Freeman, who was also good in his acceptance.

Nicole Kidman, who I usually find too mechanical, gave an impassioned speech with her TV win despite fighting the flu, and Alexander Skarsgard seemed genuinely embarrassed, as he said, to have won over Robert De Niro.

McDormand had the best finish with "there are younger people who need a doorstop, too" as she hoisted and walked off with her statuette.

Worst winners were Oldman and Janney. Oldman, who is obviously trying too hard to be on his best behavior, is just plain boring these days. Janney, who may well be a really nice person, always seems to me to come off smug and entitled no matter what she says.

flipp525 wrote:And that was the scene they decided best shows off Timothee Chalamet's performance? I mean, I know he's pretty much destined to lose to Oldman now, but they could have chosen a better clip.

Given that most of Chalamet's most impressive scenes are near the tail end of the movie, it's possible they all might have been too spoiler-ish for a movie that has only just this weekend finally gone wide.

It appears a bunch of other folks on Twitter were also confused by Rockwell's clip, so it does appear to be a scene that was cut from the actual movie. How bizarre!

My initial cantakerous reactions are in the earlier SAG Nominations and Predictions thread, but one or two additional thoughts:

I apologize for my glee at the Golden Globe choices. That was entirely based on the premise that the Broadcasters would surely echo the critics' dominant supporting choices -- Dafoe and Metcalf -- and make it into a race. I underestimated their venality. How sad, that what two weeks ago seemed the race of the decade is just another Xerox-fest.

The small saving grace: the impact of preferential voting on the best picture category -- especially in the last five contests -- suggests that that one slot, at least, will remain competitive to the end.

Odd fact-let someone turned up: the three films to previously take 3 of the 5 main movie awards all included best actress in that haul -- Bening in American Beauty, Zellweger in Chicago and Davis in The Help -- but none of those actresses carried over to AMPAS.

Three Billboards is also by miles the least commercially successful of that group of three; the others were all at $100 million or better by SAG-time.