DGA Nominations

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:03 pm

The kids at Awards Watch frequently drown themselves in barely-meaningful stats, but they've managed to come up with an interesting one that I thought I'd share before this weekend's presentation:

We tend to think of PGA and DGA as largely separate but, in fact, since the PGA's establishment in 1989, the two have been in agreement 20 of 28 times (with one more asterisked, 2013, where PGA offered a tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, but DGA went for Gravity solo). Some of the 20 agreements were for unsurprising, landslide choices (Titanic, Slumdog Millionaire and the like), but it also included years where the matches didn't seem certain upfront -- Silence of the Lambs, American Beauty, No Country for Old Men, The King's Speech.

But that's not the interesting part. Someone highlighted that, in six of those seven years where PGA and DGA didn't agree, the DGA winner replicated the Golden Globe directing choice -- Oliver Stone in 1989, Clint Eastwood in both 1992 and 2004, Ang Lee in 2000, Martin Scorsese in 2006, and Alejandro Innaritu in 2015. (The sole exception was in 2001, where Moulin Rouge took PGA, Robert Altman won the Globe, and Ron Howard was the DGA champ.)

This is especially striking because correlation between the Globe directing winner and either PGA or DGA hasn't historically been that strong -- over that 28-year period, it's coincided with PGA a mere 11 times, and with DGA only 18 times (again, with 2013 excluded). It's only as a combo that it creates this near-perfect pattern, which seems a pretty wild fluke.

As far as this year: in those 11 years that PGA matched up with the Globe winner, all 11 went on to win DGA (and the Oscar -- though 3 of them, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain and La La Land, failed to take best picture). So what seems the obvious pick for this weekend -- del Toro -- is backed up by stats. Though the fact that Nolan has been nominated four times now at DGA makes me think he has a slight chance at pulling the upset.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Okri » Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:47 pm

I think Peele and Gerwig needed this recognition. Should they have missed out on this, the Globe nod and BAFTA, I'd say they were sunk (particularly because we know both have been widely seen). Arguably McDonagh as well, but I could've imagined a scenario where he missed this but still got the oscar nomination. I agree Spielberg is hurt by this - he gets the DGA more readily than the Oscar nomination.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:50 pm

The Original BJ wrote
I also think the omission here REALLY hurts Spielberg's chances. Because if Oscar comes up with an alternate name, history has shown it's likely to be from the hipper end of the spectrum. I guess last year the Academy resuscitated Mel Gibson -- who wouldn't fit that bill at all -- but in a much stronger field, it seems less likely that a more middle-of-the-road movie like The Post could break into that lineup as a lone director-type player.

Last year is an interesting case study because there were four solid contenders for Best Director (Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, Villeneuve) and NOTHING. Garth Davis for 'Lion.' Mel Gibson for 'Hacksaw Ridge.' Martin Scorsese for 'Silence.' Contenders with major deficiencies. This year is more bountiful, but we have five solid contenders Del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, and Peele, and then a few others who seem like stronger versions of the outliers we had last year. But like you, I'm just not convinced they like 'The Post.' At this point, it is doing worse with the precursors than 'The Reader.' So who will they turn to? It's a strange world where "honoring a veteran" means turning to Paul Thomas Anderson.

They lined up five for five in 2009, with Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman, and Tarantino, and that's what I'm thinking they'll do this time.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:21 pm

Excellent nominations, although I would have preferred Guadagnino over Peele who is already a slam dunk for debut winner.

A Gerwig/Peele win would suit the current climate well.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby CalWilliam » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:03 pm

It doesn’t matter who gets snubbed at the Oscars. There will be outrage anyway. If Gerwig, no women. If Peele, no black. If Nolan, let’s burn the theatre. If Del Toro, doesn’t make sense. I only see McDonagh missing, even if Three Billboards is the presumable frontrunner. No matter what it’s really too sad for the other potencial worthy candidates. They will be as politically correct as possible. Gerwig deserves it, in my opinion. Peele, I’m not so sure. There’s such a lack of subtlety in Hollywood when it comes to dealing with these complex matters, in my opinion, that only diminishes the conversation about the worthiness of the films as products of quality or works of art.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:49 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Maybe he can knock out Nolan? That'd be the ideal solution.


Although that outcome would lead to its own kind of outrage -- and possibly the expansion of the Best Director category to 10 slots!

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:42 pm

flipp525 wrote:
OscarGuy wrote: Can you imaging the hue and cry over Gerwig or Peele getting left off in favor of say Spielberg or Anderson?

Anderson should absolutely make the final five. I’m just going to say it.

Obviously I agree, and it makes me sad that if such an excellent film gets an unexpected nomination over either Gerwig or Peele, the only headline will be about optics.

Maybe he can knock out Nolan? That'd be the ideal solution.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:40 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I think Baker, and his film, are probably not as competitive as people think. The guilds have utterly ignored him.

I think you have to consider Spielberg a possibility, largely because, other than PTA, any of these five or Guadagnino or even Baker would make for an all-first-time nomination slate at the Academy and it's never happened (unless I'm blanking on something). There is always a veteran director among them.

Putting things in perspective, Christopher Nolan has been ignored three previous times when the DGA cited him, so perhaps he finally gets in this year or perhaps he's the odd-duck out. Can you imaging the hue and cry over Gerwig or Peele getting left off in favor of say Spielberg or Anderson?

It's extremely rare to have five first-timers, but it's happened -- in both 1995 and 1997, most recently.

I think Spielberg is less likely than PTA, if that stat kicks in. DGA as been Spielberg's home-court for over 40 years; it would reverse all precedent for him to miss here and get the usually-artier replacement spot at AMPAS. PTA fills both requirements (previous nominee/arty achievement) -- plus he's a guy who's often had his films score better at AMPAS than at Guilds (the Phoenix/Adams nominations in 2012, the Inherent Vice screenplay nod in 2014).

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby flipp525 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:34 pm

OscarGuy wrote: Can you imaging the hue and cry over Gerwig or Peele getting left off in favor of say Spielberg or Anderson?

Anderson should absolutely make the final five. I’m just going to say it.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:34 pm

My initial thought was "PHEW!" -- we avoided a by-rote Spielberg nomination, and included the Gerwig/Peele pair many were outraged missed at the Globes.

My second thought was, the DGA list rarely ever transfers perfectly to Oscar...and the assumption that all five of these nominees are safe could lead to some big disappointments in a week and a half.

I think we need to get serious about just how much The Post has collapsed as a candidate. It entered the season with some people -- though not most of us here -- thinking it the easy Best Picture winner, simply based on subject/pedigree. And it scored pretty solid notices, and has been performing well in limited box office. But...no wins at the Globes, a BAFTA shut-out, PGA its only major Guild. At this point, simply hanging on to an Oscar nom for Best Picture will probably make for a GOOD nomination morning for that movie.

I also think the omission here REALLY hurts Spielberg's chances. Because if Oscar comes up with an alternate name, history has shown it's likely to be from the hipper end of the spectrum. I guess last year the Academy resuscitated Mel Gibson -- who wouldn't fit that bill at all -- but in a much stronger field, it seems less likely that a more middle-of-the-road movie like The Post could break into that lineup as a lone director-type player.

Of course, it's also worth bringing up the stat that the director's branch typically likes to include one past nominee, and these five would all be first-timers. (Though I do wonder if the fact that Del Toro and Nolan have simply been around for so long makes them feel like vets.) And there is one contender who would be BOTH a lone director type AND a past nominee in Paul Thomas Anderson, gunning for the Malick/Haneke slot, and still a very possible curveball.

I know it's only a few years old, but it's actually impressive how interesting the DGA nominees in that debut category have been over the past couple years.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:34 pm

Even though I don't love 'The Shape of Water' or like 'Dunkirk,' a five film roster of 'Dunkirk,' 'Get Out,' 'Lady Bird,' 'The Shape of Water,' and 'Three Billboards...' feels pretty good.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:30 pm

I think Baker, and his film, are probably not as competitive as people think. The guilds have utterly ignored him.

I think you have to consider Spielberg a possibility, largely because, other than PTA, any of these five or Guadagnino or even Baker would make for an all-first-time nomination slate at the Academy and it's never happened (unless I'm blanking on something). There is always a veteran director among them.

Putting things in perspective, Christopher Nolan has been ignored three previous times when the DGA cited him, so perhaps he finally gets in this year or perhaps he's the odd-duck out. Can you imaging the hue and cry over Gerwig or Peele getting left off in favor of say Spielberg or Anderson?
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:25 pm

Completely forgot Wind River would be a debut. Peele obviously wins there.

Still thinking we could see any of Guadagnino, Baker or PTA get on the directing slate at AMPAS. And I wouldn't know who to knock off from this list, without screaming.

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DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:18 pm

The five most of us expected:

FEATURE FILM
Guillermo del Toro, "The Shape of Water"
Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird"
Martin McDonagh, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Christopher Nolan, "Dunkirk"
Jordan Peele, "Get Out"

DEBUT
Geremy Jasper, "Patti Cake$"
William Oldroyd, "Lady Macbeth"
Jordan Peele, "Get Out"
Taylor Sheridan, "Wind River"
Aaron Sorkin, "Molly's Game"


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