PGA Nominations

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OscarGuy
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:34 pm

The Shape of Water is likely to come out of Oscar morning with 14 nomination. Yes, La La Land did the same, but I wonder if the nostalgia element and Guillermo del Toro being one of the Three with a prior beloved Oscar winning film (Pan's Labyrinth) could break the recent trend of heavy tech films not materializing a win. After all, it has the PGA and Critics Choice awards, and will probably get the DGA. It reminds favorably of Old Hollywood and has an underlying sweetness that belies its R rating.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:49 pm

I'm a tad surprised by the instant-negative responses here. Most everyone I've spoken to of late really likes/loves The Shape of Water. It wouldn't be my number one -- that'd be Three Billboards, with Phantom Thread nipping at its heels -- but it'd be one of several films (along with those I've mentioned, Lady Bird and, a bit lower down, Call Me by Your Name) that I'd find perfectly acceptable best picture choices. This is a year with many solid choices; the converse is, almost every contender has at least some core of loud opposition.

In fact, thesis: many people are grading this year's movies on a curve. We tend to think of that term as only applying to upgrading a mediocre field, but it can also be the reverse: taking an above-average group (which I think this year easily is) and leveling it out so we have standard rankings/preferences. I'm not immune to this, myself -- I'd view contenders like Dunkirk, Get Out or The Florida Project disappointing winners in such a year...but, in real terms, I'd consider all of those better picks than, say, Argo, and not appreciably worse than The Artist or The King's Speech. (The Post and Darkest Hour, on the other hand, would truly not sit well -- I'd put them in Gandhi territory).

Anyway, let's slow down. The Shape of Water hasn't even won DGA yet (and Max's post makes me wonder if this guild, which has nominated Nolan those three previous times, might think it's time he won a prize, a la Spielberg/Color Purple, del Toro momentum be damned). We know Shape can't win tonight at SAG -- and that SAG Ensemble stat was one we all ignored to our detriment last year. And BAFTA could go any number of ways. This season is still very much alive -- especially given the still-evolving stats on best picture/preferential ballot, and the significant expansion/diversification of the voting roster. I'm still holding to the premise that this year's precursors will not necessarily narrow the field in the way to which we're accustomed. (Like: wasn't it just two weeks ago everybody thought Three Billboards was running away with it?)

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby MaxWilder » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:55 pm

Sabin wrote:At this point, I'm pulling for 'Dunkirk' to win the DGA Award just to throw this whole thing out of wack.

This reminds me: Nolan has received three prior DGA nods (Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception). How has none translated to an Oscar nom? I thought there was significant overlap.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:02 pm

I think 'The Shape of Water' has two things for going it...

1) It will likely be the choice of all the below the line people. The art directors, cinematographers, costume designers, etc. Maybe not all of them, but it's clearly supplanted 'Dunkirk' as the craftsperson's choice.

2) The SAG Ensemble nomination. Now...I know I've made the case that the only way to win is SAG+PGA+DGA+BAFTA+Screenplay+Film Editing, which puts 'The Shape of Water' out of it. And clearly other people are thinking it too. I took a cursory glance at one of those other message boards and that's all you read (which is another reason to give thanks for this place). But 'Birdman' won without a Film Editing nomination. Sometimes there are just exceptions. 'The Shape of Water' is likely to pull in at least three acting nominations. 'Braveheart' won without a SAG nomination and had zero actors nominated.

'The Shape of Water' is clearly in the hunt. And I would imagine that the new Academy is bit by the brand of cinephilia that 'The Shape of Water' has. It's clearly in the hunt. I just have a tough time seeing it as number one on 50% of the ballots.

At this point, I'm pulling for 'Dunkirk' to win the DGA Award just to throw this whole thing out of wack.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:54 am

MaxWilder wrote:That could be it. Will that clinch BP from the Academy, which has been youngening (not a word) in recent years?

Doubt it. Lady Bird is still the one I expect to place 1st, 2nd or 3rd on most ballots, but who really knows?
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby MaxWilder » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:48 am

That could be it. Will that clinch BP from the Academy, which has been youngening (not a word) in recent years?

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:34 am

I think it's the nostalgia thing. It brings back memories of 1950s sci-fi films that were part of the growing-up experience for both baby boomers who experienced them in real time and later generations who experienced them on TV.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby MaxWilder » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:03 am

If it indeed happens, The Shape of Water’s win will be the first in years and years I just don’t ‘get.’ At all. I liked it well enough, especially Hawkins, Jenkins and Desplat’s score, but the themes are all well-traveled. Military = bad, tolerance and being different = good. (Audiences seem to feel the same: respectable gross but it’s not catching fire.)

I wanted to love it but I just didn’t see that extra something special that voters are responding to. Is it the movie-about-movies thing? That’s there but almost tangentially. It’s not front and center like The Artist. If Trump-era relevance were #1 on voters’ mind, The Post would dominate, as observers lazily predicted.

If del Toro has director on lock, I would love to see a split. I’ll take almost anything.
Last edited by MaxWilder on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby danfrank » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:41 am

Sabin wrote:This can’t all end with ‘The Shape of Water’ winning.

It could, but I hope not.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:17 am

This can’t all end with ‘The Shape of Water’ winning.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby nightwingnova » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:58 am

I went with Shape of Water first...but then switched to Lady Bird as my pick tonight, thinking it was more "serious"

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:41 am

And the winners are...

Feature: The Shape of Water
Animated: Coco
Documentary: Jane

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Greg » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:45 pm

The Original BJ wrote:One thing I've been wondering about lately -- what nominations is Wonder Woman going to get? It seems like the kind of cultural event/well-liked summer hit that shows up SOMEWHERE, but its tech credentials aren't terribly strong -- it's already been bounced from Makeup/Visual Effects. The Sound categories seem like its best bets, but even there, I wouldn't bet the farm on the movie making it. It's not outside the realm of possibility it blanks completely.


Because the character Wonder Woman already exists, it could sneak in the weak Adapted Screenplay category.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:46 pm

I, Tonya could be on its way to a Dallas Buyers Club-like trajectory. That was another film that looked like it was competing solely for a pair of acting nominations, then emerged with much stronger Guild support than anticipated. (What's really weird about this comparison is that, on its best day, I, Tonya could pick up nominations in the exact same 6 Oscar categories Dallas Buyers Club did, just swapping out the gender of the acting categories.)

Molly's Game is another film that has had a stronger than expected week, with both the PGA and ACE citations, along with the expected WGA spot. At minimum, it gives one hope that if there IS a spoiler in Best Actress, it comes from Chastain and not Dench.

One thing I've realized about an eleven-wide precursor slate like this (as well as the Broadcasters' 7-wide nomination fields in some acting categories) is that they really get people's hopes up for unlikely Oscar candidates who honestly might not have even made the precursor fields if they played by Oscar's stricter rules. Which is to say, this sort of just feels like set up for media folks/Twitter to be outraged about inevitable Oscar omissions for Wonder Woman/Patty Jenkins. (One thing I've been wondering about lately -- what nominations is Wonder Woman going to get? It seems like the kind of cultural event/well-liked summer hit that shows up SOMEWHERE, but its tech credentials aren't terribly strong -- it's already been bounced from Makeup/Visual Effects. The Sound categories seem like its best bets, but even there, I wouldn't bet the farm on the movie making it. It's not outside the realm of possibility it blanks completely.)

Also, with so many movies in contention, I'm starting to wonder if some of the films that just aren't showing up at a lot of these precursors might really struggle to sneak into the Best Picture category. Darkest Hour -- the most traditional, and thus precursor-friendly option -- seems done completely. The Florida Project isn't making inroads anywhere -- even Beasts of the Southern Wild got a PGA nom. Phantom Thread could still be The Tree of Life/Amour, but it's worth noting that Tree of Life was competing in a MUCH thinner field, and even in Amour's year, PTA's own The Master remained more a cinephile enthusiasm than an Oscar one. (I sort of thought Phantom Thread might show up at ONE of these Guilds to foreshadow a sneak Oscar run, but it hasn't even managed that.) And Mudbound does have the crucial SAG spot (as well as the de facto WGA nom), but feels like it keeps getting pushed further to the fringes of the race as movies like I, Tonya/Molly's Game have risen.

But, Mark Harris's point remains -- there are A LOT of new members in the Academy, many of them younger/foreign, whose tastes we haven't yet seen in action a lot, so there's certainly the possibility these on-the-bubble contenders show more strength than anticipated.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 pm

Female-powered moves truly dominate -- not an easy thing to happen at this guild, which passed up not just Carol but also Room two years ago.

Phantom Thread and The Florida Project will be competing for the Tree of Life/Amour position at AMPAS (of the two, I thought Florida had a better chance here). Darkest Hour's slim hopes take another hit. The Post revives after its one bad day. Molly's Game/I, Tonya -- two of those female-centered films that were far less gimmes than Carol/Room seemed two years ago -- get a big boost. (Maybe Jessica Chastain isn't 100% out of the nomination race.) Logan gets traded for Wonder Woman. And The Big Sick continues its roller-coaster ride -- miss one, get one, miss one, get one.

People at Awards Daily keep trying to make "well, now Film X is dead/soaring" pronouncements, only to be confounded by the next set of precursors. Like I said two weeks ago: we may need to view this year as sui generis -- one where all precursors aren't put together by one governing intelligence, but expressing different views of a year so varied, so full of candidates, that tying to intuit the ultimate Oscar slate from each Guild or precursor is like that old parable about the blind men touching different parts on an elephant.


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