Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Picture (Drama): The Shape of Water
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Actor (Drama): Gary Oldman
Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Actress (Drama): Sally Hawkins
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf
Screenplay: Lady Bird
Foreign Language Film: The Square
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: Remember Me
Original Score: The Shape of Water

TIE-BREAKER: 7

Drama: The Shape of Water
Comedy/Musical: Get Out
Animated: Coco
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Drama Actor: Gary Oldman
Drama Actress: Sally Hawkins
Comedy/Musical Actor: Hugh Jackman
Comedy/Musical Actress: Margot Robbie
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf
Screenplay: The Shape of Water
Original Score: The Shape of Water
Song: This Is Me
Foreign Film: First They Killed My Father

Me Too: 2

Here's my predictions, without seeing any of the films, as is my tradition in recent years.

Picture - Drama: The Post
Picture - Comedy: Lady Bird
Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Actor, Drama: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Actress, Drama: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Actor, Comedy: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Actress, Comedy: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards...
Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Song: "Mighty River", Mudbound
Animated Film: Coco
Foreign Film: The Square

Tie-Breaker: 8

I've been so enjoying the uncertainty of so many of these races that I'm reluctant to end that stage and start projecting actual winners.

I've been convinced, mathematically, that one's score is almost certain to be higher if one avoids runners-up. But that's the only thing that makes me play it that way. If I were to go by actual instinct, the only category that wouldn't have a back-up choice would be animated feature.

Picture (Drama): The Shape of Water
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Actress (Drama): Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Foreign Language Film: The Square
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: "Mighty River" (Mudbound)
Original Score: The Shape of Water

EDITED TO ADD TIE-BREAKER: 5

Picture (Drama): The Post
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor (Drama): Gary Oldman
Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco
Actress (Drama): Sally Hawkins
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf
Screenplay: The Post
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: "Remember Me"
Original Score: The Shape of Water

Tie-breaker: 3

Best Film (Drama) – The Post
Best Film (Comedy/Musical) - Lady Bird
Best Actor (Drama) - Timothee Chalamet
Best Actress (Drama) - Sally Hawkins
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) - Daniel Kaluuya
Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) - Saoirse Roan
Best Supporting Actor – Armie Hammer
Best Supporting Actress - Hong Chau
Best Director - Christopher Nolan
Best Screenplay – Molly’s Game
Best Animated Film - Coco
Best Foreign Language Film – In the Fade
Best Score - Dunkirk
Best Song – The Star

Picture (Drama): The Shape of Water
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet
Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco
Actress (Drama): Sally Hawkins
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf
Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: "Mighty River"
Original Score: The Shape of Water

Tie-breaker: 3 (I'm actually shocked some of you think NO ONE will make a reference to this, it's the biggest story in Hollywood in years)

BEST FILM - DRAMA: The Shape of Water
BEST FILM - COMEDY: Lady Bird
BEST ACTRESS - DRANA: Frances McDormand
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA: Timothee Chalamet
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY: Saorse Ronan
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY: Daniel Kaluuya
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laurie Metcalf
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Willem Dafoe
DIRECTOR: Guilermo Del Toro
SCREENPLAY: Three Billboards...
ANIMATED FILM: Coco
FOREIGN FILM: A Fantastic Woman
BEST SCORE: The Shape of Water
ORIGINAL SONG: Mudbound

Tie-breaker: 3

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: Lady Bird
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
BEST DIRECTOR FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
BEST SCREENPLAY FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: In The Fade
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SONG FOR A MOTION PICTURE: "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

Tie-breaker: Two

I should join my own contest!

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: The Post
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: Lady Bird
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY or MUSICAL: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (RU: Willem Dafoe)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: Allison Janney, I, Tonya (RU: Laurie Metcalf)
BEST DIRECTOR FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
BEST SCREENPLAY FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (RU: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: A Fantastic Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG FOR A MOTION PICTURE: "Mighty River", Mudbound

Tie-breaker question: 5.

Best Film - Drama: THE POST (RU: The Shape of Water)
Best Film - Comedy/Musical: LADY BIRD
Best Animated Film: COCO
Best Foreign-Language Film: FIRST THEY CAME FOR MY FATHER
Best Actor in a Drama: DARKEST HOUR / Gary Oldman
Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical: THE DISASTER ARTIST / James Franco
Best Actress in a Drama: THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins (RU: Three Billboards... / Frances McDormand)
Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical: I, TONYA, / Margot Robbie
Best Supporting Actor: ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD / Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress: LADY BIRD / Laurie Metcalf
Best Director: DUNKIRK / Christopher Nolan
Best Screenplay: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI / Martin McDonagh
Best Original Score: THE SHAPE OF WATER / Alexandre Desplat
Best Original Song: THE GREATEST SHOWMAN / “This Is Me”
Tie-Breaker: 6

Motion Picture Drama: The Post (The Shape of Water)
Motion Picture Comedy: Lady Bird
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor Drama: Gary Oldman (Tom Hanks)
Actress Drama: Frances McDormand
Actor Comedy: James Franco
Actress Comedy: Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Screenplay: Lady Bird (Three Billboards)
Song: Remember Me
Score: Dunkirk
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father

Tie Breaker: 6 mentions

Picture Drama: Dunkirk (RU: The Shape of Water)
Picture Mus/Com: Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor Drama: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (RU: Gary Oldman)
Actor Mus/Com: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Actress Drama: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards (RU: Sally Hawkins)
Actress Mus/Com: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Sup Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (RU: Christopher Plummer)
Sup Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya (RU: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird)
Screenplay:The Post (RU: Lady Bird)
Original Song: “Remember Me” from Coco
Original Score: The Shape of Water (RU: Dunkirk)
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Language Film: The Square (RU: In the Fade)

Tie breaker: None

Picture Drama: Call Me By Your Name
Picture Mus/Com: Get Out
Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (Guillermo del Toro)
Actor Drama: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (RU: Gary Oldman)
Actor Mus/Com: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (RU: James Franco)
Actress Drama: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards (RU: Sally Hawkins)
Actress Mus/Com: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (RU: Margot Robbie)
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (RU: Willem Dafoe)
Sup Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (Allison Janney, I, Tonya)
Screenplay: The Post (RU: Lady Bird)
Original Song: “Remember Me” from Coco
Original Score: The Shape of Water (RU: The Phantom Thread)
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Language Film: The Square (RU: In the Fade)

TIE BREAKER: 3

Picture Drama: The Post
Picture Mus/Com: Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor Drama: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Actor Mus/Com: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Actress Drama: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Actress Mus/Com: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sup Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Screenplay: The Post
Original Song: “Mighty River”, Mudbound
Original Score: The Post
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman

Tie breaker: 5