Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Sabin
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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:45 pm

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but the last time a movie got six Golden Globe nominations and won zero? 'The Godfather: Part III,' which was actually up for seven awards that night.

'The Post' started the evening with Seth Meyers pretending to give it all the Golden Globes in the world, and it ended up the biggest loser in twenty-five years.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Jefforey Smith » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:57 am

Thanks for the kudos!

And thanks anonymous1980 for having the contest & tallying results quickly!

Cheers!!

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Heksagon » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:01 am

anonymous1980 wrote:The correct answer to the tie-breaker question is 8. Only Heksagon got it right so he earns a bonus triple points for that.


Oh, nice. I said to myself, surely no one will overestimate how many times the subject will be brought up. So I checked what was the highest number anyone has suggested and added one.

Congrats to Jefforey who seems to be very good at this, and thanks to Anonymous for doing the tallying, and so soon even.

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:52 am

anonymous1980 wrote:THE RESULTS!!!

The correct answer to the tie-breaker question is 8. Only Heksagon got it right so he earns a bonus triple points for that. I thought "This Is Me" prediction would earn a couple people double points but there were four people who predicted it so that didn't pan out.

Here are the scores (let me know if I have any errors):

12 points = Okri
14 points = criddic
15 points = CalWilliam
18 points = AceIsGreat
19 points = mlrg
21 points = Precious Doll, Oscar Guy, ITALIANO, The Original BJ, FilmFan720 and dws1982
22 points = flipp525 and Sabin
23 points = Reza
24 points = Big Magilla
26 points = anonymous1980
30 points = Mister Tee and Heksagon.

and the winner with a whopping 39 points and the only person to correctly predict Three Billboards to win Best Drama (no one else had it, not even for a runner-up) without a runner-up and thus earning him triple points is...

JEFFOREY SMITH!!!

Take a bow. I believe this isn't your first time to win! You earned it.



Congratulations to the winner, of course. I've never been so bad at this game, but in a way this is good - it means that the race is still, at this moment, quite open and unpredictable. And this isn't always the case by early January, especially in the recent past. Let's hope it goes on like this.

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:41 am

THE RESULTS!!!

The correct answer to the tie-breaker question is 8. Only Heksagon got it right so he earns a bonus triple points for that. I thought "This Is Me" prediction would earn a couple people double points but there were four people who predicted it so that didn't pan out.

Here are the scores (let me know if I have any errors):

12 points = Okri
14 points = criddic
15 points = CalWilliam
18 points = AceIsGreat
19 points = mlrg
21 points = Precious Doll, Oscar Guy, ITALIANO, The Original BJ, FilmFan720 and dws1982
22 points = flipp525 and Sabin
23 points = Reza
24 points = Big Magilla
26 points = anonymous1980
30 points = Mister Tee and Heksagon.

and the winner with a whopping 39 points and the only person to correctly predict Three Billboards to win Best Drama (no one else had it, not even for a runner-up) without a runner-up and thus earning him triple points is...

JEFFOREY SMITH!!!

Take a bow. I believe this isn't your first time to win! You earned it.

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:19 pm

Should we start a new thread for reactions, or just tack on here?

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby flipp525 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:08 pm

What a great night for Three Billboards!
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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:04 pm

Well, I'm an idiot. I changed my prediction from Frances McDormand to Sally Hawkins, from Saoirse Ronan to Margot Robbie, and from Guillermo Del Toro to Christopher Nolan. Now we wait to see if 'The Post' will indeed win Best Motion Picture - Drama, which does not seem very likely at all. That being said, it doesn't seem to me like any of these films exactly fits the mold.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:31 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Seems most people are picking either McDormand or Hawkins in Actress-Drama, but is Streep totally out of it?

I'd think Saoirse Ronan's star-rising moment would make her a logical choice here, but Margot Robbie strikes me as enough analog to Sharon Stone/Casino that I have my doubts. (Especially with I, Tonya's Best Film-Comedy/Musical nomination, and the unrelated but germane WGA/PGA nods.)

If Dafoe and Metcalf both win, I'm afraid another promisingly competitive season will have been undercut by precursors decreeing the agenda.

Plummer winning his category would be the next best thing for Dafoe, since I don't see him having any chance at competing for a second Oscar so soon (against formidable competition). What is it makes people predict him, if I may ask? I'm curious because I barely gave him a thought.

Best director feels like it's narrowed down to Nolan and del Toro. (Though I suppose there's always the "for auld lang syne" possibility of Spielberg -- this group has given multiple, sometimes surprising wins to Scorsese and Eastwood over the years.) If Nolan loses, though...do we start wondering why he's stayed in the conversation despite basically minimal critical encouragement? Are we all keeping him on board simply from fading memories of the reviews last summer?

Screenplay also seems thorny. Sorkin has surprised within recent memory. The Post is not without chance. Three Billboards seems a real writerly effort, and McDonagh has been popular with them in the past. But Greta Gerwig is the celebrity they might like to see on stage.

Rooting, as always, for whatever makes the Oscars more confusing.


1. No, I actually think she could take it. But she's won so much recently that it doesn't seem necessary.

2. Hmm..... Yeah, I'm scared of that scenario.

3. Rooting for Metcalf in general, but yeah, I don't get how Dafoe is sweeping his way to a win.

4. I think mentioning Nolan is the internet equivalent of S&M - right up until the painful snub. But I think he's in a similar spot to Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down - the technical work is so notable in both. Heck, Mel Gibson got nominated last year for less (I'm sorry for bringing up darker memories).

5. Yeah, I have no idea which way they'll go for screenplay.

6. Best Actress to Michelle Williams!

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:52 pm

Mister Tee wrote
Seems most people are picking either McDormand or Hawkins in Actress-Drama, but is Streep totally out of it?

I think Meryl Streep is absolutely in the race. Especially after her comments last year. In fact, I could very easily see her winning. That could end up being the token win for 'The Post' as a whole.

Mister Tee wrote
I'd think Saoirse Ronan's star-rising moment would make her a logical choice here, but Margot Robbie strikes me as enough analog to Sharon Stone/Casino that I have my doubts. (Especially with I, Tonya's Best Film-Comedy/Musical nomination, and the unrelated but germane WGA/PGA nods.)

I am very nervous about choosing Ronan over Robbie. My reasoning is that Ronan has two previous nominations under her belt. But Margot Robbie seems like more of the kind of performer that the Hollywood Foreign Press would honor: gorgeous, box office draw, demanding validation. In fact, the parallels between her and Stone are very astute, except Margot Robbie seems to be in better standing across the board. She may have played very sexual roles in the recent past, but 'I, Tonya' is more beloved than 'Casino.' The Best Actress race is very strong but she's in better standing than Stone was. And her performance is showier than Saoirse Ronan, who's character work would be one of the more subtler recent wins...and while I expect 'Lady Bird' to win, I don't know if it's really the kind of film to win three or four awards...hmm...thinking about making a quick change...
NOTE: well, that was a mistake

Mister Tee wrote
Plummer winning his category would be the next best thing for Dafoe, since I don't see him having any chance at competing for a second Oscar so soon (against formidable competition). What is it makes people predict him, if I may ask? I'm curious because I barely gave him a thought.

It's ironic that I'm picking Christopher Plummer because the closest thing to a Willem DaFoe win IS Christopher Plummer. I'm just wondering if they really nominated 'All the Money in the World' for nothing.
Last edited by Sabin on Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby dws1982 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:50 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Plummer winning his category would be the next best thing for Dafoe, since I don't see him having any chance at competing for a second Oscar so soon (against formidable competition). What is it makes people predict him, if I may ask? I'm curious because I barely gave him a thought.

I feel like Metcalf and Dafoe will not both win, but that Metcalf, with a multiple-nominated movie, is a far better bet than Dafoe, whose film never quite broke out. I feel like Jenkins is the only one totally out of it. Rockwell, with a movie nominated across the board, definitely has a shot, and I considered him. It may be my personal indifference to his performance that's causing me to underrate his chances. Hammer has that good-looking young star vibe that the Golden Globes often go for--and unlike the Oscars, they'll reward young actors sometimes--but I feel like Chalamet is still the better bet if they're going to honor Call Me By Your Name. And then Plummer is another one of those things the Globes like--an old star. He got good reviews, plus plenty of good will for stepping in at the last minute. Since the whole last minute recast thing is deemed, for the most part, to have worked out, it's the type of attention-getting stunt that I would expect the Globes to be impressed with. But I would put Dafoe, Rockwell, and Plummer on very equal footing, with Hammer not very far behind.

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:24 pm

Since Sabin opened the door, a few let-all-your-misgivings-hang-out thoughts:

I think anything but Call Me by Your Name could win Film-Drama. And, given the Bugsy/Babel/12 Years/Moonlight precedents, the winner could be something that hasn't won a single thing up till then.

I've got James Franco winning his category, despite wondering if his film is much liked, largely because of the murmur that the HFPA just doesn't go for Get Out. But now I'm starting to wonder if the organization's long-established fawning for musicals could bring Hugh Jackman to the stage again.

Seems most people are picking either McDormand or Hawkins in Actress-Drama, but is Streep totally out of it?

I'd think Saoirse Ronan's star-rising moment would make her a logical choice here, but Margot Robbie strikes me as enough analog to Sharon Stone/Casino that I have my doubts. (Especially with I, Tonya's Best Film-Comedy/Musical nomination, and the unrelated but germane WGA/PGA nods.)

If Dafoe and Metcalf both win, I'm afraid another promisingly competitive season will have been undercut by precursors decreeing the agenda.

Plummer winning his category would be the next best thing for Dafoe, since I don't see him having any chance at competing for a second Oscar so soon (against formidable competition). What is it makes people predict him, if I may ask? I'm curious because I barely gave him a thought.

Best director feels like it's narrowed down to Nolan and del Toro. (Though I suppose there's always the "for auld lang syne" possibility of Spielberg -- this group has given multiple, sometimes surprising wins to Scorsese and Eastwood over the years.) If Nolan loses, though...do we start wondering why he's stayed in the conversation despite basically minimal critical encouragement? Are we all keeping him on board simply from fading memories of the reviews last summer?

Screenplay also seems thorny. Sorkin has surprised within recent memory. The Post is not without chance. Three Billboards seems a real writerly effort, and McDonagh has been popular with them in the past. But Greta Gerwig is the celebrity they might like to see on stage.

Best song has often been this group's least predictive category -- some of their winners have missed Oscar nominations, and vice versa. They're already minus the possible contender from Call Me by Your Name, but still have to decide among the popular PIXAR number, Hugh Jackman singing an entry from one of last year's winners, and a celebrity also nominated for acting.

Rooting, as always, for whatever makes the Oscars more confusing.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:25 pm

I'm very torn on Best Motion Picture - Drama. It seems hard for the Hollywood Foreign Press to resist a film like 'The Post.' By the same token, a movie like 'The Shape of Water' seems right up there alley as well. But what wins and how many?

Well, first there's the presence of 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.' Martin McDonagh is a UK playwright whose first film, 'In Bruges,' they gave three Globe nominations and one win. It seems unlikely that he's going to walk away empty handed without a writing win, especially when 'Three Billboards...' is such a writerly film. And with the exception of the 'Short Cuts' ensemble award, Frances McDormand has never won a Golden Globe. In 'Fargo,' she lost to Madonna. In 'Almost Famous,' she lost to Kate Hudson. And in 'Olive Kittridge,' she lost to Maggie Gyllenhaal. She's due. And this seems like a great opportunity to give her one. But am I just resisting the fact that Sally Hawkins has momentum?

If 'Three Billboards...' weren't in competition, I would almost without hesitation predict 'The Post' for Best Screenplay and Sally Hawkins for Best Actress - Drama. Likewise, I'm totally split on Best Director. With seven nominations, they clearly like 'The Shape of Water' but what about Christopher Nolan who now has six Golden Globe nominations to his name for 'Dunkirk' (Picture and Director), 'Inception' (Picture, Director, Screenplay), and 'Memento' (Screenplay). Are they going to let this UK import go home empty handed?

After this math, 'The Shape of Water' basically has two categories to compete in (Dramatic Picture and Score) and 'The Post' has one (Dramatic Picture). I'm switching my prediction from Johnny Greenwood to Alexandre Desplat by virtue of the latter being nominated for now nine Golden Globes and having one only once over a decade ago. There's something fitting about 'The Shape of Water' winning only two. But that leaves 'The Post' out completely and that doesn't feel right, now does it?

So, I've decided to give 'The Post' Best Motion Picture - Drama, 'The Shape of Water' Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama and Score, and 'Three Billboards...' Best Screenplay. And against my better judgment, I'm doing two runners up for Dramatic Picture and Actress.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby flipp525 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:05 pm

Picture (Drama): The Shape of Water
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) r/u: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Actress (Drama): Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Foreign Language Film: The Square
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: "Mighty River" (Mudbound)
Original Score: The Shape of Water

Tie-Breaker: 7
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Re: Golden Globe Predictions Contest!

Postby dws1982 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:52 pm

Picture (Drama): The Post
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Lady Bird
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Actress (Drama): Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father
Animated Feature: Coco
Original Song: "This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
Original Score: Dunkirk

Tie-Breaker: 6


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