Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

[Okri]

I dunno Sabin - those nominations for Molly's Game seem like small potatoes. The writer's had basically nobody to vote for; Aaron Sorkin feels like a big name debut director and I don't know how much a get ACE really is. I think Streep's shaky for the fifth slot, but we've said that about her before - heck, she even beat Chastain to a 5th slot (2014).

[OscarGuy]

...would feature five women playing women who are the driving force of their films, who struggle against establishments that want to suppress them.

I know you hate The Post, but you just described Streep's character as well.

[criddic3]

The reviews I've seen have had nothing but praise for Michelle Williams, and having seen the film I think she's good enough to be a surprise nomination morning. I have also read very good things about Meryl Streep and The Post in general (which I will see hopefully this weekend), but maybe this year is just too crowded in that category (a rarity I know). So if either misses out, I wouldn't necessarily say it was because people didn't like what they did, but that there were others they simply were more inclined to vote for as their top choices.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
5) Chastain seems more of the moment, with Molly's Game doing better than many anticipated, and with the film almost certainly to get the screenplay nod

I think you've touched on another reason why the fifth slot might belong to Jessica Chastain. 'Molly's Game' has nominations from the Editors Guild, the Writer's Guild, the Producer's Guild, AND as of today it's been nominated a Best First Feature DGA nomination. And there's something right about Jessica Chastain getting that spot. A lineup of Jessica Chastain, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, and Saoirse Ronan would feature five women playing women who are the driving force of their films, who struggle against establishments that want to suppress them.

I'm not Jessica Chastain's biggest fan but she's better than usual in 'Molly's Game.' If those five were the nominees, it'd be one of the best lineups in a while.

[Mister Tee]

Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game got a Golden Globe nomination. She has a much more interesting role than Meryl Streep. Aaron Sorkin has a pretty good track record of writing movies that get Oscar nominations. And she's probably due for a third nomination. She's sort of always on the bubble. She could've been nominated for 'A Most Violent Year.' It's not doing great box office but the script will be nominated as well. (Two previous nominations)

Judi Dench for 'Victoria & Abdul' missed out on a BAFTA nomination but why do we care so much about that? It grossed more than 'Molly's Game' and she's always in the running.

True only for this moment. By the end of next weekend, Molly's Game should pull ahead, and, barring total collapse, it will finish with 1 1/2-2 times the gross of Victoria & Abdul. It's Chastain's biggest personal success since Zero Dark Thirty (though of course it won't end up close to that).

I'd say many things are true:

1) Streep can never be counted out

2) The Post is still hovering in the bottom half of best picture candidates, which should grant her a boost, but...

3) Relative to where she seemed to stand three weeks ago, I think we can say Streep's slot is wobbly

4) SAG was a big plus for Judi Dench, but missing at BAFTA -- her base -- is a big blow

5) Chastain seems more of the moment, with Molly's Game doing better than many anticipated, and with the film almost certainly to get the screenplay nod

6) Margot Robbie now seems a sure number 4, but number 5 could be any of these three. (I don't see Michelle Williams or Annette Bening.)

[Sabin]

Meryl Streep has gotten nominated for three Best Picture nominees: The Deer Hunter, Kramer vs. Kramer, and Out of Africa. She wasn't nominated for 'The Hours.' Similarly, she's not doing anything exceptional here. I'm inclined to say she's the favorite, but who's her competition...?

Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game got a Golden Globe nomination. She has a much more interesting role than Meryl Streep. Aaron Sorkin has a pretty good track record of writing movies that get Oscar nominations. And she's probably due for a third nomination. She's sort of always on the bubble. She could've been nominated for 'A Most Violent Year.' It's not doing great box office but the script will be nominated as well. (Two previous nominations)

Judi Dench for 'Victoria & Abdul' missed out on a BAFTA nomination but why do we care so much about that? It grossed more than 'Molly's Game' and she's always in the running. It's just such an inconsequential affair. Reminds me of 'Florence Foster Jenkins' actually. (Seven previous nominations)

Annette Bening for 'Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool.' Or is it 'Film Stars Never Die in Liverpool' or 'Always Die in Liverpool?' I forget. Anyway, she got a BAFTA, but the more major thing if note is she wasn't up for an award within the past twelve months for '20th Century Women' so that could possibly carry over. (Four previous nominations)

Michelle Williams 'All the Money in the World.' Can pay disparity really get you an Oscar nomination? I haven't read anything great about this film. She has a Golden Globe nomination and the film and she has fantastic optics. Have enough people seen it? (Four previous nominations)

Emma Stone for 'Battle of the Sexes.' Not a great film but I don't understand why this performance didn't do better. She got a Golden Globe nomination. It did poor business. Steve Carell got a nomination from SAG but not her? Weird. (Two previous nominations)


None of these performers are bad but none of them are really exciting choices. They just occupy the middle ground. It stands to reason that Judi Dench should be the favorite because of her SAG nomination.

[flipp525]

Maybe I’m alone in this, but why exactly would Streep be viewed as a slam-dunk for a nomination? Her movie is not popular and there are several other options this year. Last year, after I saw Florence Foster Jenkins, I immediately stated that she would be nominated for it and that it was never a good move to count her out. I’m not counting her out this year, but I could definotely see her missing out.

So, yes, that fifth spot is still very much in play.

[Big Magilla]

What fifth slot? Is anyone predicting anyone other than Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, Ronan and Streep?

I have Dench in my CinemaSight predictions, but that was before BAFTA put the kibosh on her altogether.

[flipp525]

Well, I didn’t say that she deserved a nomination, Magilla. That’s not what this is about. I said in my original review of the film that she was, at best, serviceable in the role. Just advancing a theory on the continued drama of the film’s production and how it might be reflected on nomination morning.

Dench is certainly not getting that fifth spot.

[Big Magilla]

The furor seems to be more over Wahlberg's greed in holding the production hostage after everyone else, not just Williams, agreed to do the re-shoots for scale. Why that would translate into a sympathy nomination for her, I don't know. Plummer might earn one because not only did he do a last minute fill-in, he excelled in the role. She did nothing special.

[flipp525]

I’m not sure where we’re putting general thoughts about the races at this point, but I was thinking about something.

This brand-new development that Michelle Williams was apparently grossly underpaid for the All the Money in the World re-shoots ($1,000 versus $1.5M for Marky Mark) might help bump her up in the Best Actress race. I don’t really think she can overtake Meryl Streep, but awards bodies seem to be considering other factors when citing nominees for her film this season. That fifth spot seems very up-for-grabs and, let’s just face it, people are underwhelmed by The Post.

[flipp525]

I haven’t seen The Shape of Water, The Post, A Fantastic Woman among others, but this is my current top five lead female performances for the year:

Carla Gugino, Gerald’s Game
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

[Greg]

I'd like to think too that older voters in the Academy are getting a lot more broadminded and free thinking these days. After all we are talking about people like Jack Nicholson, Jane Fonda, Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Dustin Hoffman, etc.

Who are all now 80, except for Redford who is 81.

[OscarGuy]

I don't know if I'd compare to Firth. Bridges, I get, but Firth has been around awhile, but other than playing Mr. Darcy, I can't say that he was really a longstanding actor who'd earned significant respect and had never been recognized. Bridges differs from Oldman in that he had several nominations prior.

[anonymous1980]

Oldman has DC, NY Online, Dallas Fort Worth, St Louis, Southeastern, Phoenix, and Nevada
Chalamet has New York, LA, Boston Online, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and Florida

To be fair, Chalamet does have the two most major ones on that list: New York and L.A. and that should count for something. National Society of Film Critics will PROBABLY go Chalamet but if not, I doubt they'll go with Oldman (I think if not Chalamet, Franco or Day-Lewis are more likely). Critics Choice will likely go Oldman since they like to predict the Oscars. The Globes, as mlrg said below, will be interesting. If Oldman manages to win that, with his film not being nominated for anything else AND him bashing the HFPA in years past, it should be smooth sailing to the Oscars for him. If Chalamet (or any one of the other three) wins that, we'll have to wait for SAG.