BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:16 pm

SPOILERS

He beats up the ad exec...that's a pretty shitty thing to do. Yeah, it takes that interaction and his later hospital stay to make him realize what kind of a monster he is, but I would hardly call his past actions abstract.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:55 pm

MaxWilder wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:Well, as we saw with the attacks on ZERO DARK THIRTY and THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, depicting despicable behavior without explicitly attacking it means your movie is endorsing that behavior. :roll:

In fact 3BB gives Rockwell something of a redemptive hero arc (especially the DNA scene), and McDonagh lets Rockwell bring some of his goofy likability to the character. He's leaving us an opening to like the character. I don't fully agree with the detractors but I understand their points.


From what I understand, some people are upset that, yet again, a white male is given a redemptive arc without having to directly (on-screen) face his past transgressions - we never see the black man he tortured in the past (so his action is abstract), and when he does a terrible thing onscreen, he is given a very good excuse to do so, that wide opening to be liked.

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby MaxWilder » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:34 am

rolotomasi99 wrote:Well, as we saw with the attacks on ZERO DARK THIRTY and THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, depicting despicable behavior without explicitly attacking it means your movie is endorsing that behavior. :roll:

In fact 3BB gives Rockwell something of a redemptive hero arc (especially the DNA scene), and McDonagh lets Rockwell bring some of his goofy likability to the character. He's leaving us an opening to like the character. I don't fully agree with the detractors but I understand their points.

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:19 am

criddic3 wrote:
Sabin wrote:
Working against the film is another thing that might end up working for it: there's a backlash. I want to watch it again before I chime in but I'm convinced that it's not a racist film but rather it doesn't handle racism as nimbly as it could.


I think some of those people might be confused and need to be told that just because a movie features racist characters does not make the film itself racist.


Well, as we saw with the attacks on ZERO DARK THIRTY and THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, depicting despicable behavior without explicitly attacking it means your movie is endorsing that behavior. :roll: If Kathryn Bigelow had to be snubbed for a nomination and called Leni Riefenstahl then Martin McDonagh will have to put up with being called a racist, which is not new for him.

I thought THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MO was a well acted film with some great dialogue. I found it very unrealistic how both McDormand's and Rockwell's characters were able to get away with such public violent acts (her assaulting two minors at school in front of dozens of witnesses, him attempting to murder a man in front of half the town). These two moments kept me from being fully absorbed in the movie. Obviously this was not an issue for a great number of people considering how well the film has done during the awards season.

Unclear if the backlash can in any way impede the movie's momentum, but McDonagh seems to be taking a page out of Trump's book by going on the attack rather than offering even a conciliatory apology. :?
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby criddic3 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:07 am

Sabin wrote:
Working against the film is another thing that might end up working for it: there's a backlash. I want to watch it again before I chime in but I'm convinced that it's not a racist film but rather it doesn't handle racism as nimbly as it could.


I think some of those people might be confused and need to be told that just because a movie features racist characters does not make the film itself racist.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:24 am

Sabin wrote: I don't love what Natalie Portman said at the Golden Globes,


I hope she remembers to repeat it next time a male director is nominated for a film that she appears in. Or to paraphrase a quote from Louise Fletcher over 40 years ago "I wish she had said that when Darren Aronofsky was nominated."
Last edited by Precious Doll on Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:15 am

Well, my hat's off to Mister Tee. The DGA nominations have yet to come out, but a month ago he predicted that 'Three Billboards...' would play better as an art house crowd-pleaser rather than a critic's film. I thought it was dead in the water. Now, it looks like Fox Searchlight has the two front-runners.

I watched a video yesterday where TCM's Ben Mankiewicz called 'Three Billboards...' his favorite film of the year. We're going to have new Academy membership but increasingly I'm thinking the old Academy would really flip for this film. As for the new one, we'll find out.

The major thing working for 'Three Billboards...' is that it's the only film to pick up nominations from the PGA, SAG, and BAFTA, and likely it'll pick up a DGA nomination. It wasn't eligible for a WGA award. It's hard to imagine that on Oscar morning it's going to miss a writing nomination or an editing nomination. Very slowly, it's being wheeled out as a contender. I'm increasingly convinced that Fox Searchlight has been doing a genius job of rolling this thing out. It stands at $25 mil right now and all of a sudden people are going to line up to see it now that it's big news. It could end up with legs.

Working against the film is another thing that might end up working for it: there's a backlash. I want to watch it again before I chime in but I'm convinced that it's not a racist film but rather it doesn't handle racism as nimbly as it could. The most I can weigh in on it now is that I know people who have walked out of the fucking thing (or turned it off) thirty minutes in, they're ranting about it on Facebook and at parties, and they look like absolute children. However, Martin McDonagh is now on record bashing "bland PC filmmaking." This is...not a cautious way to handle some pretty fair criticisms of the film, but I'm sure a lot of people agree. 'Three Billboards...' has the capacity to turn into 'Million Dollar Baby,' a movie that drums up a conversation about just "What the Fuck It Is Saying" while pretty much everybody agreeing that it is AT LEAST a good film. Being the 'Million Dollar Baby' of the season isn't that bad, and 'Three Billboards...' could end up courting a fascinating mix of voters with different political agendas.

Obviously, the BAFTA's are going to be more inclined to favor a Martin McDonagh film. But at this point we have to ask: what is over-performing for 'Three Billboards...' and what is under-performing?At this point, I think Best Director and Best Editing are pretty likely. So, on a bad day, it misses Best Supporting Actor (for Woody Harrelson), Best Original Score, and Best Cinematography for six. On a good day, it has between seven and nine. That's...a very Best Picture-looking total.


---

That was longer than intended...

The other big takeaway from the BAFTAs will be answered on Thursday. "What about 'Lady Bird' or 'Get Out'...?" Can we chalk this poor showing up to the fact that there were A LOT of UK-US films in competition this year, or is it simply a case of "These are small American films and they simply didn't get it?" Let me put it this way: I don't love what Natalie Portman said at the Golden Globes, but if Greta Gerwig and/or Jordan Peele don't get nominated for Best Director...it really is fucking bullshit and worth getting pissed. The last time people will be that angry at the Academy will be when 'The Dark Knight' lost to 'The Reader' and the reasoning will be the same.

On the other end of the spectrum, 'The Shape of Water' looks like the nomination leader come Oscar morning. I think it's a bit shaky on nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing. Both are likely, but if it missed out on one, I wouldn't be surprised -- or bothered. I think its biggest sins are in the writing and editing. But something that very few people are talking about is the fact that it could very easily end up picking up fourteen nominations. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects. All of these nominations are in range. If somehow Michael Shannon finds his way in there, it will be the most nominated film of all time. I give that slim odds but it's possible...
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby criddic3 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:12 pm

Franz Ferdinand wrote:
Is Paddington 2 regretting not having a week's engagement in the U.S. in 2017?


I think one film that might have that aura is Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, which has gotten good notices from those who have seen it. Had it been released, say, at the beginning of December rather than the end it might have had a shot at the Oscars.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:12 pm

Since I've been nightowl-ing it of late, I was up to watch the livestream. The biggest shock by far was the Villeneuve nod...which I'm sure won't repeat with AMPAS, but, combined with the massive below-the-line haul, suggests the film could have a significant nominations total.

Good day (picture/finally! director/screenplay nods) and bad (no supporting actor) for Call Me by Your Name, whose ultimate showing remains a mystery.

Darkest Hour, Brit-bait supreme, kills below the line and gets the tack-on Kristin Scott Thomas, but misses both director and screenplay. We all remember Atonement shocking us on Oscar nominations morning; most credited the Brit faction with making it happen. But Atonement did better in nominations and, in fact, WON best film at BAFTA. Today's showing may make costumes/production design/score/even cinematography more likely at AMPAS, but I'm still not inclined to try and wedge the film into the best picture field. (I think the Brit contingent will put more of its weight behind Dunkirk.)

You really should take a look at the Awards Daily board -- people who a week ago were telling us Get Out was for sure winning Oscar best picture and now saying Three Billboards has it nailed down. Bringing up the old bromide "frequently wrong, but never in doubt".

It's funny how Shape of Water can lead the nominations and still be ignored as winner possibility by so many. (Also funny how Richard Jenkins could be left out in that circumstance. Best supporting actor feels like the shape-shifter category this year -- beyond Dafoe and Rockwell, we've had lots of fluidity from our major precursors, and I think it's foolhardy to call anyone in or out.)

It's official: Ameicans (as in SAG) are now further in the tank for Judi Dench's shtik than even the Brits, these days. Victoria & Abdul didn't even get a costume nod!

I rather suspect the key word "Liverpool" is the beginning and end of the reason for the Bening/Bell nominations, and don't remotely add them to my calculations.

I'm very pleased by the Manville inclusion and, because it wasn't attached to a big overall showing for Phantom Thread, I choose to believe it could be repeated at the Oscars.

Get Out and Lady Bird don't do particularly well relative to the expectations that have been built up here of late. Possibly they're both too American for Brit tastes. Lady Bird actually has one fewer nomination than I, Tonya, thanks to the latter's make-up nod.

This group essentially finessed the adapted screenplay category by posting a bunch of "AMPAS will never" local favorites. It's worth noting that they passed on The Disaster Artist in both spots, screenplay and actor. I still wonder if that film will turn out too weird for the nominations most have been expecting.

You could move over most of the below-the-line categories to AMPAS without editing and I'd have little complaint.

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby mlrg » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:03 pm

FilmFan720 wrote:However, don't you feel that the preferential ballot would hurt a film with so many detractors?


Yes. That's why La La Land and The Revenant lost in my opinion.

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:40 pm

I think Darkest Hour has a strong run at some of the below-the-line nominations, particularly Cinematography, Score, and Production Design.

So far, every film has missed at least one major Guild citation...but Three Billboards only missed WGA, where it was ineligible, so you would have to argue that it is running the best so far. However, don't you feel that the preferential ballot would hurt a film with so many detractors?
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:10 pm

Would this indicate that Darkest Hour may have a shot at any Oscar nods beyond Oldman and Makeup?

Is Three Billboards starting to pull away from the pack and moving into frontrunner status?

Is Paddington 2 regretting not having a week's engagement in the U.S. in 2017?

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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:08 am

Dench & Streep have each been nominated for 13 times for film roles by the BFTAs. One does ponder......why stop now?

Throw out Margot whatshername and Annette Benning for a film that has no business at any awards show. Problem fixed.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:02 am

Takeaways...

1) 'Darkest Hour' stays in the race.
2) 'Three Billboards...' is having an incredible week.
3) They clearly saw 'Get Out' and 'Lady Bird,' and preferred their own stories. In fact, none of their Best Film nominees were directed by Americans.
4) They clearly saw 'Call Me By Your Name'...and preferred Hugh Grant in 'Paddington 2' to Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg.
5) 'I, Tonya' gets a boost past 'The Big Sick' for Screenplay.
6) Annette Bening gets some recognition in an already exhaustingly packed Best Actress race. And Jamie Bell, who's now older than both Daniel Kaluuya and Timothée Chalamet, gets his first inclusion.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations & Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:53 am

Very interesting.

Dench was the best thing about Victoria & Abdul, but it was a minor film. In a less competitive year she would have been nominated, but Streep is the more shocking snub, but I'm happy to see Bening there instead. And Jamie Bell, too, beating out the also-rans for the fifth Best Actor slot.
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