Re: Golden Globes
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:51 am
Current Rankings/Predictions.
Final Ballots are mailed today, and we’re currently 20 days until the event.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
1. The Post
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Dunkirk
4. Call Me by Your Name
5. The Shape of Water
Since this year has been batsh*t insane, I’m expecting a singular “Babel-esc” victory in this category for ‘The Post.’ Which also means ‘The Post’ will probably have no other wins during the season, whether it be BAFTA or any of the Guilds. Having this film win seems like a choice the HFPA would go with, considering It’s ‘press-based.’ And It’s also a big middle finger to Trump, which they would salivate at. Anything besides that or Three Billboards--which also has pretty good chances; is probably an unlikely possibility.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. Get Out
2. Lady Bird
3. The Disaster Artist
4. I, Tonya
5. The Greatest Showman
This has somehow become a bit dependent on the division of social issues, such as Race and Sexes. (At the very least, If you consider the inclusion of the Press and Social Media.) ‘Get Out’ has been the presumed frontrunner (even the “lock” according to some) for many months now. But It’s only competition in the form of ‘Lady Bird’, has definitely garnered some steam during the November-December period. However, coupled with the snub of director and screenplay, the category placement, plus the rumblings of the “race card” being thrown around; the backlash against the Globe’s treatment of the film might propel it to a victory. Granted, the same Director snub was delivered onto the aforementioned LB. And may I add, that both situations have gotten quite the same amount of backlash. The Globes will probably end up having ‘Get Out’ win this category, It’ll end up satisfying everyone. (LB will probably win ‘screenplay’ and 2 acting awards anyway.)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
1. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
3. Tom Hanks - The Post
4. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
5. Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I originally perceived Chalamet as the victor here. But I believe this “HFPA Beef” with Oldman might be a little overestimated by some. The only reason why I believe Hanks or Day Lewis could have a bigger shot of winning, is because Oldman is a sole nominee. The Globes have a tendency to give Best Actor to a film that has either a Best Director or Motion Picture nomination. Or at the very least, someone who has more than 1 nomination (in general) to their film--hence DDL. Members of the HFPA might split between Oldman and Chalamet, and could end up voting for a retiring Day Lewis. It really seems like anyone but Washington could end up taking this.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
1. Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
3. Meryl Streep - The Post
4. Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game
5. Michelle Williams - All the Money in the World
Don’t let the foolish and ridiculously biased ‘Stans’ on AW tell you different; because Streep is not winning this. She’s probably the most likely out of the 3 non-factors. The HFPA won’t hand it to her just because of ‘that speech’ she made at this year’s Globes. (And no, I don’t believe the #MeToo/Female Empowerment-esc movement that’s impacting the industry will help her here either.) The performances of the nominee’s retrospective films will triumph in this category, and It’s between McDormand and Hawkins. However, I’m putting my money on Frances McDormand, considering she’s never won a Globe yet (was snubbed for ‘Fargo’), also coupled with the industries support for Three Billboards; McDormand has quite the edge here. Also, Hawkins already won a Globe for ‘Happy-Go-Lucky’ several years ago. I believe Marge Gunderson has it here.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. James Franco - The Disaster Artist
2. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
3. Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Showman
4. Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes
5. Ansel Elgort - Baby Driver
Maybe this proclaimed ‘industry support’ Kaluuya has that AW has been talking about, could help him win this? But that’s probably one of their many overreactions (and Stan Agendas) to contenders. The only thing that can help Daniel win this, is probably the aforementioned backlash against the Globe’s treatment of the film. But Franco has this. Little doubt about it.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
2. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
3. Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul
4. Emma Stone - Battle of the Sexes
5. Helen Mirren - The Leisure Seeker
Robbie could surprise… but I believe Ronan has this. The support for 'Lady Bird' is too strong.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
1. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
3. Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
4. Armie Hammer - Call Me by Your Name
5. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
The Veteran Dafoe has taken NBR, NY, and LA In a surprise mini sweep. However, I’m taking a risk, in predicting that the path for Rockwell's Oscar begins here. Even if this supposed (and probably overestimated) backlash kicks up, the Academy will probably end up giving Rockwell the Oscar to reward the film. And the Globes will end up taking part in the formation of his frontrunner buzz.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
1. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
3. Hong Chau - Downsizing
4. Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
I first thought that Janney was the sure fire frontrunner here, considering It seems like a very “Globes Thing” to do. But like I mentioned with Ronan, the support for Gerwig’s film is very strong. Metcalf is taking the Globe (in what I predict) is one of her 2 major precursor awards. Because I believe Janney takes the BAFTA, while Metcalf wins the Globe, SAG and Oscar. It’ll be yet another way for the Industry to award ‘Lady Bird.’
Best Director (Motion Picture)
1. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
3. Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Steven Spielberg - The Post
5. Ridley Scott - All The Money in the World
Del Toro has a good chance, and could end up with the BAFTA and DGA in his road to the Oscar. However, I believe Nolan wins here. It's between those 2 for the Director Awards, across the entire board. No doubt about it.
Best Screenplay (Motion Picture)
1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Post
4. The Shape of Water
5. Molly’s Game
Since 3BB has a good chance to take the Drama Globe; I’m suspecting the support for ‘Lady Bird’ will help Greta Gerwig win screenplay here. No-one was expecting the backing that the HFPA gave Three Billboards, so who knows? 3BB could end up taking screenplay, with several other major awards. But for now, I’m betting my bottom dollar on LB taking this.
Final Ballots are mailed today, and we’re currently 20 days until the event.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
1. The Post
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Dunkirk
4. Call Me by Your Name
5. The Shape of Water
Since this year has been batsh*t insane, I’m expecting a singular “Babel-esc” victory in this category for ‘The Post.’ Which also means ‘The Post’ will probably have no other wins during the season, whether it be BAFTA or any of the Guilds. Having this film win seems like a choice the HFPA would go with, considering It’s ‘press-based.’ And It’s also a big middle finger to Trump, which they would salivate at. Anything besides that or Three Billboards--which also has pretty good chances; is probably an unlikely possibility.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. Get Out
2. Lady Bird
3. The Disaster Artist
4. I, Tonya
5. The Greatest Showman
This has somehow become a bit dependent on the division of social issues, such as Race and Sexes. (At the very least, If you consider the inclusion of the Press and Social Media.) ‘Get Out’ has been the presumed frontrunner (even the “lock” according to some) for many months now. But It’s only competition in the form of ‘Lady Bird’, has definitely garnered some steam during the November-December period. However, coupled with the snub of director and screenplay, the category placement, plus the rumblings of the “race card” being thrown around; the backlash against the Globe’s treatment of the film might propel it to a victory. Granted, the same Director snub was delivered onto the aforementioned LB. And may I add, that both situations have gotten quite the same amount of backlash. The Globes will probably end up having ‘Get Out’ win this category, It’ll end up satisfying everyone. (LB will probably win ‘screenplay’ and 2 acting awards anyway.)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
1. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
3. Tom Hanks - The Post
4. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
5. Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I originally perceived Chalamet as the victor here. But I believe this “HFPA Beef” with Oldman might be a little overestimated by some. The only reason why I believe Hanks or Day Lewis could have a bigger shot of winning, is because Oldman is a sole nominee. The Globes have a tendency to give Best Actor to a film that has either a Best Director or Motion Picture nomination. Or at the very least, someone who has more than 1 nomination (in general) to their film--hence DDL. Members of the HFPA might split between Oldman and Chalamet, and could end up voting for a retiring Day Lewis. It really seems like anyone but Washington could end up taking this.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
1. Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
3. Meryl Streep - The Post
4. Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game
5. Michelle Williams - All the Money in the World
Don’t let the foolish and ridiculously biased ‘Stans’ on AW tell you different; because Streep is not winning this. She’s probably the most likely out of the 3 non-factors. The HFPA won’t hand it to her just because of ‘that speech’ she made at this year’s Globes. (And no, I don’t believe the #MeToo/Female Empowerment-esc movement that’s impacting the industry will help her here either.) The performances of the nominee’s retrospective films will triumph in this category, and It’s between McDormand and Hawkins. However, I’m putting my money on Frances McDormand, considering she’s never won a Globe yet (was snubbed for ‘Fargo’), also coupled with the industries support for Three Billboards; McDormand has quite the edge here. Also, Hawkins already won a Globe for ‘Happy-Go-Lucky’ several years ago. I believe Marge Gunderson has it here.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. James Franco - The Disaster Artist
2. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
3. Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Showman
4. Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes
5. Ansel Elgort - Baby Driver
Maybe this proclaimed ‘industry support’ Kaluuya has that AW has been talking about, could help him win this? But that’s probably one of their many overreactions (and Stan Agendas) to contenders. The only thing that can help Daniel win this, is probably the aforementioned backlash against the Globe’s treatment of the film. But Franco has this. Little doubt about it.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
1. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
2. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
3. Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul
4. Emma Stone - Battle of the Sexes
5. Helen Mirren - The Leisure Seeker
Robbie could surprise… but I believe Ronan has this. The support for 'Lady Bird' is too strong.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
1. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
3. Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
4. Armie Hammer - Call Me by Your Name
5. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
The Veteran Dafoe has taken NBR, NY, and LA In a surprise mini sweep. However, I’m taking a risk, in predicting that the path for Rockwell's Oscar begins here. Even if this supposed (and probably overestimated) backlash kicks up, the Academy will probably end up giving Rockwell the Oscar to reward the film. And the Globes will end up taking part in the formation of his frontrunner buzz.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
1. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
3. Hong Chau - Downsizing
4. Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
I first thought that Janney was the sure fire frontrunner here, considering It seems like a very “Globes Thing” to do. But like I mentioned with Ronan, the support for Gerwig’s film is very strong. Metcalf is taking the Globe (in what I predict) is one of her 2 major precursor awards. Because I believe Janney takes the BAFTA, while Metcalf wins the Globe, SAG and Oscar. It’ll be yet another way for the Industry to award ‘Lady Bird.’
Best Director (Motion Picture)
1. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
3. Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Steven Spielberg - The Post
5. Ridley Scott - All The Money in the World
Del Toro has a good chance, and could end up with the BAFTA and DGA in his road to the Oscar. However, I believe Nolan wins here. It's between those 2 for the Director Awards, across the entire board. No doubt about it.
Best Screenplay (Motion Picture)
1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Post
4. The Shape of Water
5. Molly’s Game
Since 3BB has a good chance to take the Drama Globe; I’m suspecting the support for ‘Lady Bird’ will help Greta Gerwig win screenplay here. No-one was expecting the backing that the HFPA gave Three Billboards, so who knows? 3BB could end up taking screenplay, with several other major awards. But for now, I’m betting my bottom dollar on LB taking this.