Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by flipp525 »

OscarGuy wrote:Your ignorance of what political correctness is and is not doesn't make you look less Trump-like, Reza. The Trumpanzees are very against this "political correctness" thing for a similar reason. I defended you after your expulsion from the Cinema Super Friends saying you were quite progressive, but perpetual comments like this aren't helping me feel good about that defense.
The accusation of being “overly-politically correct” is a well known Fox/Trump voter talking point to deflect from the basic rules of common human decency in polite society.
Last edited by flipp525 on Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by ThePianist »

On a side note...

Best Picture
1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Get Out
5. The Shape of Water
6. Dunkirk
7. The Post
8. I, Tonya
9. Darkest Hour

Best Actor
1. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
__________________________________________________
4. Tom Hanks - The Post
5. James Franco - The Disaster Artist
6. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
7. Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

Best Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
2. Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep - The Post (Near-Locked Nom, but no chance of winning.)
__________________________________________________
5. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
6. Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game
7. Vicky Krieps - Phantom Thread
8. Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
3. Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
__________________________________________________
4. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
5. Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
6. Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
7. Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
8. Bob Odenkirk - The Post
9. Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World

Best Supporting Actress
1. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
__________________________________________________
3. Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
4. Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
6. Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
7. Hong Chau - Downsizing
__________________________________________________
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound (NETFLIX STIGMA)


Best Director
1. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
4. Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
5. Steven Spielberg - The Post
__________________________________________________
6. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Jordan Peele - Get Out

Best Original Screenplay
1. Greta Gerwig - Ladybird
2. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Jordan Peele - Get Out
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
5. Liz Hannah, Josh Singer - The Post
__________________________________________________
6. Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor - The Shape of Water


This Adapted Category is absolutely fucked.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. James Ivory - Call Me By Your Name
2. Michael H. Weber, Scott Neustadter - The Disaster Artist
__________________________________________________
3. Aaron Sorkin - Molly’s Game
4. Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying
5. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne - Wonder
6. John Pollono - Stronger
__________________________________________________
7. Virgil Williams, Dee Rees - Mudbound (NETFLIX STIGMA)
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10031
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by Reza »

OscarGuy wrote:Your ignorance of what political correctness is and is not doesn't make you look less Trump-like, Reza. The Trumpanzees are very against this "political correctness" thing for a similar reason. I defended you after your expulsion from the Cinema Super Friends saying you were quite progressive, but perpetual comments like this aren't helping me feel good about that defense.
Well instead of acting like a reprimanding school teacher why don't you explain to me what is wrong with the question I asked below. The character played by McDormand uses the N word. Why would that antagonize Academy voters? Are you saying nobody uses that word in the United States anymore?
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by OscarGuy »

Your ignorance of what political correctness is and is not doesn't make you look less Trump-like, Reza. The Trumpanzees are very against this "political correctness" thing for a similar reason. I defended you after your expulsion from the Cinema Super Friends saying you were quite progressive, but perpetual comments like this aren't helping me feel good about that defense.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10031
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by Reza »

Sabin wrote:The interrogation room. ""N**** torturing." She's setting Sam Rockwell up, and he responds by saying "We don't call it that anymore. We call it colored people torturing." Something like that.
Why would this antagonize voters? In character McDormand used the N word - people use that word a lot in your country so it was quite natural - and then she was corrected/rebuked by Rockwell.

People are now taking "political correctness" to a realm that is bordering on paranoia.
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by flipp525 »

Oh, you’re right. Now I remember.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by Sabin »

The interrogation room. ""N**** torturing." She's setting Sam Rockwell up, and he responds by saying "We don't call it that anymore. We call it colored people torturing." Something like that.
"How's the despair?"
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by flipp525 »

Not that I’m doubting you, Sabin, but when did McDormand’s character say the N-word in Three Billboards? I don’t remember that at all. I just remember her saying “black folks.”
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by Sabin »

Well, we're onto the next leg of the precursors, which mainly means a week off and then the Broadcasters, Golden Globes, and (most meaningful) the SAG nominations. Although since the AFTRA merger, their nominations have been a bit off.

So, what just happened? America's film critics just gave a round of endorsements out. These boost visibility and promote viability of candidacy. The National Society of Film Critics will vote next month but the conversation will be on these others groups. So, let's play who needed help, who didn't need help, and who got it?

At this point, it would be easier to pick the films that didn't need help from the film critics that are in the mix for Best Picture. 'Darkest Hour,' 'Dunkirk,' 'Get Out,' and 'The Post.' I'd say those films could've stiffed completely and picked up momentum down the road. 'Darkest Hour' might have ceded some Best Actor terrain to Timothée Chalamet, who seems to be the most meaningful contender to Gary Oldman, and Guy Lodge has all but declared 'Dunkirk' dead in the water, but they're still in the mix. 'The Post' was a big winner. After months of waiting to hear word, within hours it was seen, reactions were ecstatic, and it won the first big award. And 'Get Out' won its first screenwriting award as well as several awards from Gotham. Considering that it came at the expense of Martin McDonagh, who will not be up for a WGA award, we're looking at a very competitive Best Original Screenplay race. And 'The Disaster Artist' didn't need much help either at this point, but it picked up an award for writing and James Franco came in runner up for Best Actor and won a Gotham for Best Actor.

What films needed help? Again, I'm just throwing out films in the Best Picture mix. 'The Big Sick,' 'Call Me By Your Name,' 'The Florida Project,' 'I, Tonya,' 'Lady Bird,' 'Molly's Game,' 'Mudbound,' 'Phantom Thread,' 'The Shape of Water,' and 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.' All these films needed a boost, either to start a wave or because it was going to be one of their only blips throughout the season.

Some of these films completely stiffed, others got runners up mention, but which film got the biggest boost by this week? I'd say 'Call Me By Your Name.' In a post-Spacey world, this film started with a surprise win from Gotham that garnered little enthusiasm compared to the sweep by 'Get Out,' it did incredible business, and then it won the LAFCAA. It didn't tie. It won outright. Its lead actor has emerged as the underdog in the Best Actor race. And Luca Guadagnino got a directing award. Make no mistake about it. It had a great week, and even if it doesn't do well with the Hollywood Foreign Press or the Screen Actor's Guild, I think it's in the mix.

I'm going to cheat, but next up is A24. 'Lady Bird' and 'The Florida Project' don't have the heft of 'Moonlight'...or do they? 'Lady Bird' has racked up awards for Picture, Directing, Actress, and Supporting Actress at all three groups. It's doing great business, it was recently declared the best reviews film in the history of Rotten Tomatoes, and in a world desperate to honor women's stories, it's becoming something to champion. 'The Florida Project' was runner up for Best Picture, won Best Director, and is sweeping for Willem DaFoe. I thought the film might get a little lost in the shuffle, but that hasn't been the case. 'The Florida Project' started the season with nominations for Film and Directing, but not for DaFoe. While it's hard to imagine the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Screen Actor's Guild going for the film as a whole, the DaFoe train is likely to keep going.

The biggest loser? 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.' It did a bit better this weekend with runner up mentions for acting and screenwriting, and it has many opportunities to bounce back in the coming weeks...but if it doesn't pick up a nomination for Best Dramatic Picture, will anyone be terribly surprised at this point? Especially when it couldn't even get a nomination for Best Film from the Independent Spirit Awards?

Going for it: if it's not a critic's film, then it's an art house hit, right? But going against it: I have had more than one conversation in the past week with industry folk who outright hated the film for three reasons: 1) it dares to get you to have empathy for a racist cop, 2) it backgrounds the racism of the police department, and 3) Frances McDormand says the N-word. They weren't thrilled that a film primed for a explosion instead lead to understanding, but it was these three little things. We'll see how it does in the coming weeks, but I have a bad feeling that this movie isn't connecting and it missed its big moment to make a showing.
"How's the despair?"
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by ThePianist »

bizarre wrote: Best Picture
* "The Post"
Last BP winner without wins at NYFCC or LAFCA was Crash.
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by ThePianist »

bizarre wrote:and I ultimately think the age handicap could very likely push Chalamet out - though who knows this year.
No... just no.

I don't mean to be rude; but some of your predictions are really asinine. It's delusional to doubt Chalamet's chance for a nom during this point in the race. His praise is undeniable. His buzz is through the roof. Hanks, Franco, Gyllenhaal all hang in the balance and two of them is probably going to end up flopping. Timmy just won NY, and could win LA too. He's in.

It's yet to be seen if his universal renegotiation could propel him to a win. The age factor does play a part in that. Plus, that 'Win' spot is definitely reserved for Oldman right now. But doubting him for a nomination, is completely ignorant.
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by bizarre »

No critics groups have gelled around Stuhlbarg yet, which worries me, and I ultimately think the age handicap could very likely push Chalamet out - though who knows this year.
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by flipp525 »

Chalamet and Stuhlbarg give the best performances in Call Me By Your Name. Hammer is wonderful in it but there’s just no way those two are left off with Hammer making it in as the sole acting nominee from the film.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Post by bizarre »

As LAFCA voting is underway, NBR and NYFCC have announced and we wait on Globe and Critics' Choice nominations, the season has entered a new phase. Here are my updated predictions marking the beginning of the precursor whirlwind (* denotes a winner, longlists for the Top 8 categories only):

Best Picture
"Call Me by Your Name"
"Darkest Hour"
"Dunkirk"
"The Florida Project"
"Get Out"
"Lady Bird"
* "The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
10. "Mudbound"
11. "I, Tonya"
12. "Blade Runner 2049"
13. "Phantom Thread"
14. "The Big Sick"
15. "Wonder"
16. "Coco"
17. "Downsizing"
18. "Wonderstruck"
19. "The Disaster Artist"
20. "Molly's Game"
21. "Wind River"
22. "Wonder Woman"
23. "Last Flag Flying"
24. "Logan"
25. "It"


Best Director
* Guillermo del Toro, for "The Shape of Water"
Greta Gerwig, for "Lady Bird"
Martin McDonagh, for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Christopher Nolan, for "Dunkirk"
Steven Spielberg, for "The Post"
06. Luca Guadagnino, for "Call Me by Your Name"
07. Denis Villeneuve, for "Blade Runner 2049"
08. Jordan Peele, for "Get Out"
09. Sean Baker, for "The Florida Project"
10. Dee Rees, for "Mudbound"
11. Paul Thomas Anderson, for "Phantom Thread"
12. Joe Wright, for "Darkest Hour"
13. Alexander Payne, for "Downsizing"
14. Aaron Sorkin, for "Molly's Game"
15. Todd Haynes, for "Wonderstruck"


Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, in "Phantom Thread"
James Franco, in "The Disaster Artist"
Jake Gyllenhaal, in "Stronger"
Tom Hanks, in "The Post"
* Gary Oldman, in "Darkest Hour"
06. Timothée Chalamet, in "Call Me by Your Name"
07. Daniel Kaluuya, in "Get Out"
08. Jacob Tremblay, in "Wonder"
09. Robert Pattinson, in "Good Time"
10. Kumail Nanjiani, in "The Big Sick"
11. Denzel Washington, in "Roman J. Israel, Esq."
12. Jeremy Renner, in "Wind River"
13. Sam Elliott, in "The Hero"
14. Harry Dean Stanton, in "Lucky"
15. Ryan Gosling, in "Blade Runner 2049"


Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, in "The Shape of Water"
Frances McDormand, in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
* Saoirse Ronan, in "Lady Bird"
Emma Stone, in "Battle of the Sexes"
Meryl Streep, in "The Post"
06. Margot Robbie, in "I, Tonya"
07. Daniela Vega, in "A Fantastic Woman"
08. Judi Dench, in "Victoria and Abdul"
09. Jessica Chastain, in "Molly's Game"
10. Vicky Krieps, in "Phantom Thread"
11. Brooklynn Prince, in "The Florida Project"
12. Salma Hayek, in "Beatriz at Dinner"
13. Kate Winslet, in "Wonder Wheel"
14. Jennifer Lawrence, in "Mother!"
15. Gal Gadot, in "Wonder Woman"


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, in "The Florida Project"
Armie Hammer, in "Call Me by Your Name"
Bob Odenkirk, in "The Post"
* Sam Rockwell, in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Michael Shannon, in "The Shape of Water"
06. Michael Stuhlbarg, in "Call Me by Your Name"
07. Richard Jenkins, in "The Shape of Water"
08. Jason Mitchell, in "Mudbound"
09. Mark Rylance, in "Dunkirk"
10. Ray Romano, in "The Big Sick"
11. Idris Elba, in "Molly's Game"
12. Ben Mendelsohn, in "Darkest Hour"
13. Woody Harrelson, in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
14. Dustin Hoffman, in "The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)"
15. Bryan Cranston, in "Last Flag Flying"


Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, in "Downsizing"
* Allison Janney, in "I, Tonya"
Lesley Manville, in "Phantom Thread"
Laurie Metcalf, in "Lady Bird"
Octavia Spencer, in "The Shape of Water"
06. Holly Hunter, in "The Big Sick"
07. Melissa Leo, in "Novitiate"
08. Mary J. Blige, in "Mudbound"
09. Tiffany Haddish, in "Girls Trip"
10. Julia Roberts, in "Wonder"
11. Kristin Scott Thomas, in "Darkest Hour"
12. Michelle Pfeiffer, in "Mother!"
13. Allison Williams, in "Get Out"
14. Lois Smith, in "Marjorie Prime"
15. Tatiana Maslany, in "Stronger"


Best Adapted Screenplay
* "Call Me by Your Name"
"The Disaster Artist"
"Molly's Game"
"Mudbound"
"Wonder"
06. "Wonderstruck"
07. "Blade Runner 2049"
08. "Last Flag Flying"
09. "Stronger"
10. "Wonder Woman"
11. "Victoria and Abdul"
12. "It"
13. "The Lost City of Z"
14. "First They Killed My Father"
15. "Marjorie Prime"


Best Original Screenplay
"The Big Sick"
"Get Out"
"Lady Bird"
"The Post"
* "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
06. "I, Tonya"
07. "The Shape of Water"
08. "The Florida Project"
09. "Phantom Thread"
10. "Darkest Hour"
11. "Downsizing"
12. "Beatriz at Dinner"
13. "Coco"
14. "Wind River"
15. "Dunkirk"


Best Animated Feature
"The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales"
"The Breadwinner"
* "Coco"
"Ferdinand"
"Loving Vincent"

Best Documentary Feature
"Chasing Coral"
* "City of Ghosts"
"Faces Places"
"Jane"
"Last Men in Aleppo"

Best Foreign-Language Film
* "Foxtrot" (Israel)
"The Insult" (Lebanon)
"Loveless" (Russia)
"On Body and Soul" (Hungary)
"The Wound" (South Africa)

Best Cinematography
* "Blade Runner 2049"
"Dunkirk"
"The Shape of Water"
"Wonder Wheel"
"Wonderstruck"

Best Costume Design
* "Beauty and the Beast"
"The Greatest Showman"
"Phantom Thread"
"The Post"
"Victoria and Abdul"

Best Film Editing
* "Dunkirk"
"Get Out"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
"Darkest Hour"
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2"
* "The Shape of Water"

Best Original Score
"Darkest Hour"
"Dunkirk"
"Phantom Thread"
"The Post"
* "The Shape of Water"

Best Original Song
"Battle of the Sexes" - 'If I Dare'
"Beauty and the Beast" - 'Evermore'
"Call Me by Your Name" - 'Mystery of Love'
* "Coco" - 'Remember Me'
"Cries from Syria" - 'Prayers for This World'

Best Production Design
* "Blade Runner 2049"
"Darkest Hour"
"Downsizing"
"Murder on the Orient Express"
"The Shape of Water"

Best Sound Editing
"Blade Runner 2049"
* "Dunkirk"
"The Shape of Water"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Wonder Woman"

Best Sound Mixing
"Baby Driver"
"Blade Runner 2049"
* "Dunkirk"
"The Shape of Water"
"Wonderstruck"

Best Visual Effects
* "Blade Runner 2049"
"Dunkirk"
"The Shape of Water"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"War for the Planet of the Apes"
Post Reply

Return to “90th Predictions and Precursors”