I don't know. Someone who refuses to campaign for himself might be a refreshing choice. The bigger problem for Armie Hammer is that his role could be conceived as either lead or supporting, which puts him at a disadvantage as he could come up short in both categories. The same is true for Jamie Bell, although no one seems to be predicting him in either category.
I am far from calling a winner in any category. One day it seems it could be this, another day it seems it could be that, but nothing looks like a foregone conclusion yet.
The Florida Project seems like a nice little movie, something like The Little Fugitive, but hardly an awards magnet. Get Out was a nice surprise, a modern horror film that was actually good, but an Oscar contender in major categories? I think the most it could end up with is a screenplay nod. If it were a five-way race, I could see Dunkirk, Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as likely contenders at this point with Last Flag Flying, Darkest Hour and the still unseen The Post vying for the fifth slot, but zeroing in on ten at this point is still just speculation for me.
Gary Oldman remains the one constant in the Best Actor predictions with Jake Gyllenhaal coming on strong. Everyone else is a question mark at this point.
My vote for best actress would probably be Frances McDormand, but that's in part because although Fargo was my choice for Best Picture of 1996, Debbie Reynolds was my choice for Best Actress in Mother so I owe her, especially since I've already given my Best Actress award to Annette Bening and Judi Dench in recent years. If Oscar wants a fresher face this year, then it's likely to be Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan. Kate Winslet, who was robbed of a nomination for last year's The Dressmaker, is another veteran who could displace one of the already seen front-runners. One can never count out Meryl Streep of course, but really, enough is enough for giving her routine nods for marginal work and her Katherine Graham looks like another one of those.
Supporting actor is beginning to look solid for Michael Stuhlbarg, Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell with all others fighting for the remaining two spots.
Supporting Actress is still a giant question mark, with Laurie Metcalf slowly emerging as the sentimental favorite.
Director looks good for Nolan, del Toro and Guadagino, but Martin McDonagh seems to be emerging as a strong fourth contender. It does look like someone other than the same old same old will win here.
“Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire