Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[Mister Tee]

The fringe/handicapped best actor candidates are really crashing at the box-office. Breathe opened this weekend to less than $500 per at 300 theatres. Stronger is actually -- well, stronger -- but is finishing at about $4 million. Given neither film got any real critical support, it's hard to see how either hold up for nominations...except for how spectacularly barren the field is. If ever there was a year for some studio to look at a male-lead vehicle they were holding for Spring and say, you know what, let's give it a qualifying run, this is it. At this point, I have no idea beyond Chalamet who would win the serious critics' awards (I don't think Oldman is the kind of thing they'd go for).

In other box-office "news", The Florida Project has cooled down from its relatively strong specialty release. It's not doing horribly -- $5-6,000 per at over 100 theatres -- but it's not floating up into Moonlight/Boyhood territory, let alone Spotlight/12 Years a Slave. BJ may be right, that it's more American Honey, thus more Spirit Award than Oscar.

[bizarre]

And here's my longlists for Picture-Director-Adapted-Original:

01. NOMINEE – “The Shape of Water”
02. NOMINEE – “Dunkirk”
03. NOMINEE – “Call Me by Your Name”
04. NOMINEE – “Get Out”
05. NOMINEE – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
06. NOMINEE – “Darkest Hour”
07. NOMINEE – “The Post”
08. NOMINEE – “Blade Runner 2049”
09. NOMINEE – “Lady Bird”
10. “The Florida Project”
-
11. “Molly’s Game”
12. “Downsizing”
13. “Phantom Thread”
14. “The Big Sick”
15. “Only the Brave”
16. “Last Flag Flying”
17. “Mudbound”
18. “Hostiles”
19. “Battle of the Sexes”
20. “I, Tonya”
-
21. “Coco”
22. “Mother!”
23. “Wonderstruck”
24. “Wind River”
25. “Wonder”
26. “Detroit”
27. “The Death of Stalin”
28. “First They Killed My Father”
29. “It”
30. “The Greatest Showman”

Bubble Contenders:
“All the Money in the World”, “Baby Driver”, “The Beguiled”, “The Disaster Artist”, “Girls Trip”, “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”, “Kodachrome”, “The Leisure Seeker”, “Logan”, “Murder on the Orient Express”, “Novitiate”, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”, “The Square”, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”, “Stronger”, “Thank You for Your Service”, “Wonder Woman”

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01. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
02. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
03. Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
04. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
05. Steven Spielberg (The Post)
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06. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
07. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
08. Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
09. Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game)
10. Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
-
11. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
12. Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
13. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
14. Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)
15. Joseph Kosinski (Only the Brave)
-
16. Scott Cooper (Hostiles)
17. Darren Aronofsky (Mother!)
18. Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
19. Dee Rees (Mudbound)
20. Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father)
-
21. Taylor Sheridan (Wind River)
22. Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
23. Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
24. Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
25. Andy Muschietti (It)

Bubble Contenders:
Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled), Dan Gilroy (Roman J. Israel, Esq.), Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman), Jason Hall (Thank You for Your Service), Armando Iannucci (The Death of Stalin), Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman), Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Killing of a Sacred Deer), James Mangold (Logan), Ruben Östlund (The Square), Mark Raso (Kodachrome), Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

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01. “Call Me by Your Name”
02. “Darkest Hour”
03. “Molly’s Game”
04. “Blade Runner 2049”
05. “The Death of Stalin”
-
06. “The Disaster Artist”
07. “Mudbound”
08. “Last Flag Flying”
09. “Wonderstruck”
10. “Hostiles”
-
11. “First They Killed My Father”
12. “Wonder”
13. “It”
14. “Kodachrome”
15. “Stronger”
-
16. “All the Money in the World”
17. “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
18. “The Leisure Seeker”
19. “Victoria and Abdul”
20. “Wonder Woman”
-
21. “Thank You for Your Service”
22. “The Beguiled”
23. “The Lost City of Z”
24. “Logan”
25. “The Zookeeper’s Wife”

Bubble Contenders:
“The Glass Castle”, “Lean on Pete”, “The Mountain Between Us”, “Murder on the Orient Express”, “My Cousin Rachel”

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01. “The Shape of Water”
02. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
03. “Get Out”
04. “Lady Bird”
05. “The Post”
-
06. “The Big Sick”
07. “Downsizing”
08. “The Florida Project”
09. “I, Tonya”
10. “Phantom Thread”
-
11. “Battle of the Sexes”
12. “Coco”
13. “Wonder Wheel”
14. “Dunkirk”
15. “Beatriz at Dinner”
-
16. “Wind River”
17. “Only the Brave”
18. “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
19. “Detroit”
20. “Brad’s Status”
-
21. “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
22. “Good Time”
23. “Lucky”
24. “The Square”
25. “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)”

Bubble Contenders:
“Baby Driver”, “Chappaquiddick”, “A Fantastic Woman”, “A Ghost Story”, “Girls Trip”, “The Greatest Showman”, “Novitiate”

[bizarre]

I'll put out my current acting category longlists which are ranked by my perception of the likelihood of an Oscar nomination (precursors will obviously be a different story):

01. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
02. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
03. Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
04. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
05. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
-
06. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
07. Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
08. Tom Hanks (The Post)
09. Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
10. Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)
-
11. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
12. Sam Elliott (The Hero)
13. Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
14. Christian Bale (Hostiles)
15. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
-
16. Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
17. Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
18. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
19. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
20. Miles Teller (Thank You for Your Service)
-
21. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
22. Vince Vaughn (Brawl in Cell Block 99)
23. Josh Brolin (Only the Brave)
24. James McAvoy (Split)
25. Jason Sudeikis (Kodachrome)

Bubble Contenders:
Claes Bang (The Square), Javier Bardem (Mother!), Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool), Chadwick Boseman (Marshall), Kenneth Branagh (Murder on the Orient Express), Jason Clarke (Chappaquiddick), Bryan Cranston (The Upside), Matt Damon (Downsizing), Colin Farrell (The Killing of a Sacred Deer), Kevin Hart (The Upside), Hugh Jackman (Logan), Liam Neeson (Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House), Charlie Plummer (Lean on Pete), Ben Stiller (Brad's Status)

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01. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
02. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
03. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
04. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
05. Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
-
06. Meryl Streep (The Post)
07. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
08. Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)
09. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
10. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
-
11. Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
12. Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
13. Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
14. Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
15. Claire Foy (Breathe)
-
16. Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker)
17. Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)
18. Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
19. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
20. Sareum Srey Moch (First They Killed My Father)
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21. Cynthia Nixon (A Quiet Passion)
22. Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
23. Jessica Chastain (The Zookeeper's Wife)
24. Kristen Stewart (Personal Shopper)
25. Margaret Qualley (Novitiate)

Bubble Contenders:
Chanté Adams (Roxanne Roxanne), Jessica Chastain (Woman Walks Ahead), Danielle Macdonald (Patti Cake$), Rooney Mara (Una)

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01. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
02. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
03. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
04. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
05. Idris Elba (Molly's Game)
-
06. Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
07. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
08. Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
09. Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
10. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
-
11. Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049)
12. Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
13. Bob Odenkirk (The Post)
14. Miles Teller (Only the Brave)
15. Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World)
-
16. Patrick Stewart (Logan)
17. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
18. Will Poulter (Detroit)
19. Ed Harris (Kodachrome)
20. Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)
-
21. Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)
22. Christoph Waltz (Downsizing)
23. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
24. Joe Cole (Thank You for Your Service)
25. Simon Russell Beale (The Death of Stalin)

Bubble Contenders:
Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel), Steve Buscemi (The Death of Stalin), Bruce Dern (Chappaquiddick), Zac Efron (The Greatest Showman), Colin Farrell (Roman J. Israel, Esq.), Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul), Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying), Michael Greyeyes (Woman Walks Ahead), Woody Harrelson (The Glass Castle), Paul Walter Hauser (I, Tonya), Garrett Hedlund (Mudbound), Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories - New and Selected), Oscar Isaac (Suburbicon), Beulah Koale (Thank You for Your Service), John Lithgow (Beatriz at Dinner), Ben Safdie (Good Time), Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories - New and Selected), Bill Skarsgård (It), Wes Studi (Hostiles), Bradley Whitford (The Post)

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01. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
02. Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
03. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
04. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
05. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
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06. Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
07. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
08. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
09. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
10. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
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11. Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
12. Julia Roberts (Wonder)
13. Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
14. Allison Williams (Get Out)
15. Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel)
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16. Rosamund Pike (Hostiles)
17. Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)
18. Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
19. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
20. Michelle Williams (The Greatest Showman)
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21. Kirsten Dunst (The Beguiled)
22. Catherine Keener (Get Out)
23. Nicole Kidman (The Killing of a Sacred Deer)
24. Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)
25. Julie Walters (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

Bubble Contenders:
Haley Bennett (Thank You for Your Service), Jennifer Connelly (Only the Brave), Sylvia Hoeks (Blade Runner 2049), Kate Hudson (Marshall), Keala Settle (The Greatest Showman), Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project), Naomi Watts (The Glass Castle)

[Sabin]

The Original BJ wrote
I wonder if Sabin's hunch about The Post shifting over into the Adapted race might be a possibility. There's no source material credited on IMDB, but it's widely reported that it was inspired by a read of Katharine Graham's memoir, and screenplays have been deemed adapted for less. Certainly if there's a way to finagle that credit between now and its release, you'd have to imagine that team would rather be in the (way) less competitive writing category if they could.

They basically did the same thing for Lincoln. Both films occupied a grey “inspired by” zone. I’m not sure the internal discussion that was had, but perhaps they saw an advantage to riding a wave of affection for Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book. Little did they know that the film would have a better shot that year in the original lineup that year, where it wasn’t up against Argo, another film that would seem to be “inspired” by source material.

There is something a little weird about this process considering its origins as a Black List script.

[The Original BJ]

Two random Adapted Screenplay thoughts:

I wonder if Sabin's hunch about The Post shifting over into the Adapted race might be a possibility. There's no source material credited on IMDB, but it's widely reported that it was inspired by a read of Katharine Graham's memoir, and screenplays have been deemed adapted for less. Certainly if there's a way to finagle that credit between now and its release, you'd have to imagine that team would rather be in the (way) less competitive writing category if they could.

Could Lost City of Z be a stronger possibility than we thought in this category? I'm genuinely struggling to come up with options that don't seem totally lame (i.e. failed Oscar bait), and this was a generally well-reviewed film that's in the spirit of the kind of movies the writers have often gone out on a limb to cite.

[bizarre]

bizarre, what is your reasoning for Kate Winslet almost running the gauntlet of precursors? I thought she was perfectly fine in the trailer, but didn't really see any amazing moments for her. I actually think that Juno Temple looked more impressive.

I love your Salma Hayek mentions being a big fan of her Beatriz at Dinner performance.

After watching the trailer, reading the reviews and considering the effect the current paradigm shift Hollywood is experiencing (as represented by this Weinstein phenomenon) would have on a Woody Allen picture, especially one with a middling reception, she became a factor in the minor edits I was making the day I posted the predictions I'd already drafted.

Right now my acting predictions are:
ACTOR - Chalamet / Day-Lewis / Franco / Gyllenhaal / *Oldman*
ACTRESS - *Hawkins* / McDormand / Ronan / Stone / Vega
S. ACTOR - Dafoe / Elba / *Rockwell* / Shannon / Stuhlbarg
S. ACTRESS - Chau / Hunter / *Janney* / Leo / Metcalf

I'll have to do updated precursor predictions at some point too, but outside of my changing expectations and feelings on Winslet and Streep's probable trajectories the general gist of the ones I posted the other day still stands.

[OscarGuy]

Since her performance was being hailed sight-unseen, it smacks of a pre-campaign for her by getting her in the competition before anyone had seen the film such that she seemed like a guaranteed nominee even if her performance wasn't great.

[flipp525]

Wonder Wheel is trending on Twitter after premiering at NYFF last night. Early reactions are mixed, with most of the praise going to Vitorrio Storaro's photography. The movie is apparently very static and "play-like."

Matt Neglia: "WONDER WHEEL is overly dramatic & self indulgent with its writing & performance. But Vitorrio Storaro's cinematography was [emoji with hearts as eyes] #NYFF # NYFF55"

"Honestly, Winslet is such an unlikable character who consistently nags and has no redeemable qualities. She could very well miss Actress."

"Jim Belishi surprised me the most but everyone is so over the top in their melodrama. Allen even shoots it like a play at times!"

[flipp525]

bizarre, what is your reasoning for Kate Winslet almost running the gauntlet of precursors? I thought she was perfectly fine in the trailer, but didn't really see any amazing moments for her. I actually think that Juno Temple looked more impressive.

I love your Salma Hayek mentions being a big fan of her Beatriz at Dinner performance.

[ThePianist]

Kate Winslet is not winning best actress. Aside from her having won fairly recently and the size of her role, I doubt people will be in the mood to reward a Woody Allen film.

Agreed (for the most part) in regards to this. Not that It's a "reward" to a Woody Allen Film (Blanchett Won Lead Actress for Blue Jasmine 3 years ago), but she honestly doesn't look THAT strong. Granted, (from what I remember) a little bit more than a half of minute of unimpressive-looking work in a Trailer, isn't a clear indication that she won't be strong enough to pull a win. But just look at her competition.

I personally believe It comes down between Francis McDormand and Sally Hawkins. Meryl and Winslet are non-factors IMO.

[MaxWilder]

Kate Winslet is not winning best actress. Aside from her having won fairly recently and the size of her role, I doubt people will be in the mood to reward a Woody Allen film.

[Precious Doll]

I week ago I thought Blade Runner 2049 would do $700 million worldwide. Looks like it will struggle to $300.

I do think the film will have legs at the box office though and lots of repeat business but I clearly over under estimated the younger demographic of filmgoers who appear to not have widespread interest in the film.

Still, I hope that the Academy will still find room for a Best Picture nomination of the critical strength of the film and it's much beloved predecessor.

[Mister Tee]

Don't we think Blade Runner's box office is going to be a pretty big issue for that movie's chances in the Picture/Director department? That seems like the kind of movie/genre that really needs to be a hit to get into major Oscar territory, and I'm not sure the "big flop" tag that's been attached to it is going to do it any favors.

I even wonder if Roger Deakins's front-runner status has to be questioned -- something I didn't at all imagine when I saw the movie on opening day and thought this might really be his year to win.

Like the original, Blade Runner 2049 is a cult movie made on a blockbuster's budget. The original, as no one seems to remember, was a box-office bust. Which caused it to lose Oscars it should have won for art direction and visual effects. (Though ET might have won the latter, regardless.) It was probably insane to think the film's popularity among film scholars was going to turn a reboot into a Marvel film at the ticket counter.

I saw 2049 this afternoon and don't have the energy to write about it fully. Except to say, Jesus Christ, it was gorgeous. Across the board -- in terms of design, lighting, framing -- I don't think there was a a single moment in the film that wasn't visually striking and/or stunning. To watch this film lose any of cinematography, production design, or visual effects would be a stone bummer.

[Sabin]

The Original BJ wrote
I even wonder if Roger Deakins's front-runner status has to be questioned -- something I didn't at all imagine when I saw the movie on opening day and thought this might really be his year to win.

I do as well. In fairness, he's probably the favorite. He's likely going to win every critic's award this year as well as another ASC Award (his fourth), but he's probably even odds with Dunkirk's Hoyte van Hoytema. Working in Deakins' favor this time is that Dunkirk isn't a 3D film, merely 70mm, but that could be enough.

I haven't seen Blade Runner 2049 yet but it's already been declared a flop. I think it's probably more of a sleeper that won't recover its budget. I think it's going to end up with a lot of nominations. Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects. Adapted Screenplay is a very weak field so I suppose it's in the running. I have a feeling that The Post might try to sneak into that category.

I'm also feeling a sinking feeling around Wonder Wheel and Winslet's chances. It's going to screen tomorrow night so we'll have a better idea but I think Woody Allen is going to have a very public backlash and unlike in previous years his actors are going to face very serious questioning for their decision to work with him. At this point, I think Frances McDormand is going to win.

[ThePianist]

As a rule, "little" films don't need to be box-office hits to be a major Oscar player, but "big" films that underperform almost always do. The question, though, is what replaces Blade Runner 2049 in the categories outside of the obvious technical ones?

Either of these 2: