Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[Big Magilla]

As a rule, "little" films don't need to be box-office hits to be a major Oscar player, but "big" films that underperform almost always do. The question, though, is what replaces Blade Runner 2049 in the categories outside of the obvious technical ones?

[The Original BJ]

Don't we think Blade Runner's box office is going to be a pretty big issue for that movie's chances in the Picture/Director department? That seems like the kind of movie/genre that really needs to be a hit to get into major Oscar territory, and I'm not sure the "big flop" tag that's been attached to it is going to do it any favors.

I even wonder if Roger Deakins's front-runner status has to be questioned -- something I didn't at all imagine when I saw the movie on opening day and thought this might really be his year to win.

[bizarre]

Long post coming up. I'm in the middle of doing a slight update but these are basically my current predictions for all Oscar categories apart from the shorts and for acting categories at the major precursors:

OSCARS

Best Picture:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
* “The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Director:
* Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Blade Runner 2049”
* “Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“The Death of Stalin”
“Molly’s Game”

Best Original Screenplay:
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
* “The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Animated Feature:
“Birdboy: The Forgotten Children”
“The Breadwinner”
* “Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“In This Corner of the World”

Best Documentary Feature:
“Chasing Coral”
* “City of Ghosts”
“Faces, Places”
“Jane”
“Strong Island”

Best Foreign-Language Film:
“A Ciambra” (Italy)
* “BPM (Beats per Minute)” (France)
“Foxtrot” (Israel)
“On Body and Soul” (Hungary)
“Wajib” (Palestine)

Best Cinematography:
* “Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Wonderstruck”

Best Costume Design:
“Darkest Hour”
“The Greatest Showman”
* “Murder on the Orient Express”
“Phantom Thread”
“Victoria and Abdul”

Best Film Editing:
“Blade Runner 2049”
* “Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
“Darkest Hour”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
* “The Shape of Water”

Best Original Score:
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
* “The Shape of Water”
“Wonderstruck”

Best Original Song:
“Battle of the Sexes”
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Call Me by Your Name”
* “Coco”
“Detroit”

Best Production Design:
* “Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Downsizing”
“Murder on the Orient Express”
“The Shape of Water”

Best Sound Editing:
“Blade Runner 2049”
* “Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Wonder Woman”

Best Sound Mixing:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
* “Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Wonderstruck”

Best Visual Effects:
* “Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

---

SAG

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Best Actress:
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Allison Williams (Get Out)

---

GOLDEN GLOBES

Best Actor (Drama):
* Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Best Actress (Drama):
Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical):
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
* Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical):
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Best Supporting Actor:
Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)

Best Supporting Actress:
* Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Julia Roberts (Wonder)

---

BAFTA

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Supporting Actor:
Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
* Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
* Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel)

---

BFCA

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Supporting Actor:
Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Will Poulter (Detroit)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)

---

NBR

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Actress: Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau (Downsizing)

---

NYFCC

Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

---

LAFCA

Best Actor: James McAvoy (Split)
Best Actress: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

---

NSFC

Best Actor: Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Best Actress: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

[MaxWilder]

Cate Blanchett got in for her Queen Elizabeth I reprisal in the underwhelming The Golden Age.

I'm still not OK with that. Clear case of members scrambling to complete their ballots and choosing Blanchett, sight unseen, based on reputation and memories of the first film. Amy Adams (Enchanted) should've gotten that nomination.

[Sabin]

My critic friend just saw Wonder Wheel. Admittedly, he is not a fan of twentieth century Woody Allen but he’s told me it is not good.

“Definitely not one of his worst. Just found the whole thing schematic. It's one of his "woman with a shitty life circles the drain." And it has this super incongruous fourth-wall-breaking narration. beautifully shot though.”

[Big Magilla]

The trailer for Roman J. Israel, Esq. looks really impressive despite the mixed reviews for the film at Toronto. Looks like Denzel Washington could be back on everyone's short list.

[flipp525]

Entertainment Studios has decided to release Chappaquiddick for Oscar consideration so look for Jason Clarke to enter the Best Actor conversation.

The same studio has also acquired Hostiles and plans to release that also so ditto the above for Christian Bale (who's quickly becoming a perennial favorite of the Academy's). Bale is apparently doing "career-best" work in the film, according to sources.

Primarily know for television acquisitions, this is Entertainment Stuidios first foray into the theatrical distribution game.

[Sabin]

And Storaro. This film looks gorgeous.

[flipp525]

Wonder Wheel trailer is out. Kate Winslet looks strong (shades of her Mildred Pierce?) and I would definitely start pencilling in Juno Temple as a Best Supporting Actress contender. Woody Allen ladies positively excel in that category.

Jim Belushi could be a veteran-to-watch in Best Supporting Actor.

[ThePianist]

My Current Winners
(I suppose I'll elaborate and be more in depth on my next post in a few weeks or so.)

Best Picture: Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory - Call Me By Your Name

[criddic3]

I'm not sure of its eligibility for awards consideration, but I just watched the just-released film adaptation of Stephen King's Gerald's Game on Netflix and Carla Gugino is really excellent in the lead role turning in a ferocious performance. The Guardian calls her work a "barn-storming showcase" in their review this weekend. The adaptation is extremely faithful to what I had always considered an unfilmable King book; director Mike Flanagan pulls it off beautifully.

Isn't Netflix seen as more of a TV platform than a movie platform? I can only see it being eligible if they released the film theatrically if that's the case.

[Mister Tee]

I'm largely in agreement, except for:

1) The comparison of Darkest Hour to The King's Speech. Though lots of us considered King's Speech a square-ish choice, critics were quite enthusiastic -- it sits at 88 on Metacritic, and I think that's actually down a few notches from where it sat during the season. Darkest Hour is at 72, which is more Imitation Game/Theory of Everything territory. I'm not even fully sold it makes the best picture slate, and I'd definitely be wary of Wright in directing. (I also question the premise that Social Network was King's Speech's only competition that year. It appeared that way because of the critical unanimity, but, had Fincher's film not existed, I'd expect The Fighter, True Grit, Black Swan or even Toy Story 3 would have had support.)

2) In addition to The Post, you can't rule out the PTA film. I know, after The Master and Inherent Vice, we tend to think his films are never in the Academy zone, but we'd have said much the same just before There Will Be Blood came out. High-level talent can sometimes just break through (as Guadagnino appears to have done, this year).

I'm also still open to Wonder Wheel being something special. The fact they're positioning it in high season the way they are makes me think they see it as more than an actress play -- if that were all it was, they could have released it in the Jasmine spot late summer. Obviously we'll know better about this shortly.

[Sabin]

Obviously we don't know anything at this point, but I think the likeliest is 'The Shape of Water.' It looks en route to at least eight nominations (but the final total might be closer to eleven or twelve). It has an emotional core. It's a love story but also clearly a plea for acceptance. It has strong reviews. To me, it looks like a hit.

The second likeliest probably has to be 'Dunkirk' if only because it's a known quantity. It's a giant hit from a filmmaker that is perceived as overdue for an Oscar. It's a war movie without an emotional core but as the Academy grows more diverse that might not be a bad thing. It's possible it could be honored for is artistic ambition (if not execution). Christopher Nolan is three DGA nominations in and this will likely be his fourth.

The third likeliest is probably 'Darkest Hour,' following 'The King's Speech''s path. The only difference is 'The King's Speech' had weaker competition. As every month of the fall rolled on, it became clear that the only contender was 'The Social Network' until the tables turned. On the other hand, Winston Churchill is probably a stronger draw to audiences than Bertie, if a less fresh quantity. It looks corny to me but it's possibly it just doesn't trailer well. Possible nomination leader.

The fourth likeliest to me is 'Call Me By Your Name.' It has great reviews from Sundance. The biggest handicap against it (a too conservative Academy) is getting more and more phased out every year. These days, Best Picture winners are not the ones that pull in the most Oscars. This decade's biggest winner is 'The Artist' with five. Sony Pictures Classics has a lousy track record but we're in an age where that might not matter anymore. It's going to be a lightning rod.

And the fifth likeliest is total speculation. 'The Post.' Spielberg. The Pentagon Papers. Totally unseen at this point. Every live action Spielberg movie this decade has been nominated and before their release looked like major contenders. 'The Post' could easily follow suit. On Oscar night, none of them really had a chance of winning. Ditto.

[FilmFan720]

In regards to what'll win Best Picture, IMO It’s coming down to ‘Call Me By Your Name’, ‘Three Billboards’,‘The Florida Project’, and ‘The Shape of Water.’

Or Darkest Hour (if it picks up a King Speech-like audience). Or The Post (if it is vintage, timely Spielberg). Or Dunkirk (if it remains in everyone's minds come January). Or something we haven't considered yet, like Wonder or Wonder Wheel.

[ThePianist]

In regards to what'll win Best Picture, IMO It’s coming down to ‘Call Me By Your Name’, ‘Three Billboards’,‘The Florida Project’, and ‘The Shape of Water.’