Working against Willem DaFoe is that he doesn't so much play a character so much as lend his presence to the film in a way we haven't really seen before. I expect he will do well with critics which should help the fact that this isn't an Academy-friendly film.The Original BJ wrote
I think Dafoe has a solid shot at nomination, but I'd still hesitate to call him locked up, mainly because I don't feel like I have a great idea of how strong The Florida Project will end up being. Even with critics' awards, it's not unheard of for widely-praised guys from indie movies that aren't major contenders to miss with Oscar (Buscemi, Sarsgaard, Albert Brooks, Michael Shannon two years ago).
I think one of the reasons why the category hasn't quite come into shape is so many of the films seemingly have two supporting performances that could end up nominated. Call Me By Your Name with Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg. The Shape of Water with Richard Jenkins and Michael Shannon. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell.
I think the Screen Actor's Guild is going to nominate Tiffany Haddish for Best Supporting Actress. Since the AFTRA-merger, they've nominated more black performances and films about black people. I'm sure there are other ways to say that sentence but, y'know, what's the point? They nominated Lee Daniels' The Butler for Ensemble, Actor, and Supporting Actress. They gave Beasts of No Nation a nomination for Ensemble and Idris Elba a win as a clear rebuke to the Academy. They nominated Straight Outta Compton. They gave Best Actor to Denzel Washington for Fences. I think they'll nominate Tiffany Haddish and the film itself might be up for Best Ensemble.The Original BJ wrote
How serious should we be taking the push for a Supporting Actress nomination for Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip? Earlier in the year, it seemed insane, but there don't appear to be a ton of strong candidates in that category, and she was widely singled out as a standout in a movie that was a surprise hit. (I haven't seen it to be able to comment on the performance.) She's hosting SNL this week. There aren't a ton of actors of color in the race. Could there be a scenario where enough people start asking, why not her?
Will Haddish get nominated for an Oscar? At this point, it depends on The Post and Phantom Thread. If there aren't any standout supporting female performances in either film, I think the case for Haddish will probably have to be made.
I've seen the film. It's not bad. The first twenty minutes or so are torture but I more or less got on board with its mediocrity. She's the best part of the film. She plays a trainwreck of a slut who in the film's strongest moment turns out to have an unexpected side to her that simply deepens the character more than one would think. I don't think she deserves an Oscar nomination, but then again I didn't think Melissa McCarthy deserved one for Bridesmaids, but Tiffany Haddish almost certainly will end up giving the supporting female performance of the year that audiences responded to the most.