Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[mlrg]

How can you call me crazy for predicting Robbie to win Best Actress while saying you get a Dallas Buyers Club from I, Tonya and recommending I predict it for Best Picture?

Why are you predicting Robbie in the first place?

Tiresome

[ThePianist]

How can you call me crazy for predicting Robbie to win Best Actress while saying you get a Dallas Buyers Club from I, Tonya and recommending I predict it for Best Picture?

Why are you predicting Robbie in the first place?

[bizarre]

How can you call me crazy for predicting Robbie to win Best Actress while saying you get a Dallas Buyers Club from I, Tonya and recommending I predict it for Best Picture?

[flipp525]

I think both Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell should be nominated for Three Billboards. I was already expecting to be impressed by the buzzed-about Rockwell, but I was really surprised at how much I enjoyed Woody in this. He’s wonderful in it.

[ThePianist]

Is there any reason Harry Dean Stanton is no longer being touted as a possible nominee?

He has virtually no buzz, and the hype behind the film has slowly drifted away. There's so many others that are waves ahead of him.

I mean, this is a weak category. If the studio starts campaigning (let alone like wild-fire) to get him in, there might be a chance. But there's no evidence to suggest they're trying--like, at all. He might be up for some critics' awards, but that's it.

[Precious Doll]

Is there any reason Harry Dean Stanton is no longer being touted as a possible nominee?

[ThePianist]

Stans on AW are currently making this mistake and predicting Greta Gerwig without Spielberg. Don't listen to them.

May I mention this one more time: AT LEAST ONE past director nominee will be included.
THIS IS A 20 YEAR STAT!

[ThePianist]

We could have our youngest Best Actor winner since Adrien Brody.

Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner so far.

... That's what it means.

[Greg]

We could have our youngest Best Actor winner since Adrien Brody.

Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner so far.

[ThePianist]

I don't mean to go all Goldderby about this... but Gary Oldman is gonna win. It's not that it's necessarily such an undeniable performance as it is, simply, a PERFORMANCE, full of capital-A acting from beginning to end, with a significant physical/vocal transformation, in the role of a legendary world leader, delivered by an actor who has been widely respected for decades but has never won an Oscar. No other actor who has been seen already is even going to come close, so unless Hanks or Day-Lewis turn out work that's so legendary they can overcome the challenges of winning a third or fourth Oscar (possible in theory, but sight unseen, that's not the way I'd bet), it's Oldman. (And it's definitely not Chalamet -- I think some folks who haven't seen that film yet will be surprised just how recessive his role is.)

Yeah, I think you're right. Remember when Denzel Washington beat Casey Affleck? ... oh wait.

Granted, there have been times where a more baity role (in terms of a performance) overcame a more subdued one. But It's never smart to doubt someone just because they're subtle. His reviews are overwhelming fantastic, and age is his only setback. And plus, that's the problem: OLDMAN IS ACTING WITH A CAPITAL A. While Chalamet is said to be so amazing, It doesn't even seem like he's acting. (His praise goes beyond that too.) Also, I've seen CMBYN, and one thing I can say is; you're definitely underestimating him. It's foolish to believe this still isn't a race.

This isn't "Leo Overdue.'"(Fucking hell, DiCaprio wasn't predicted from the end of March to wherever we are now.) Leo not only had a way stronger narrative, but his film was a top-of-the-line Best Picture contender. It was the favorite to win among mostly everyone after December. I believe people are incline to forget that Oldman's film is borderline mixed, and the reviews aren't really that inspiring. The only thing that really stands out is Oldman, and a couple of supporting performances. It's essentially the Gary Oldman Show. It could even miss the Best Picture lineup; and what then? Does Oldman still beat his competition based on name recognition alone? 'Call Me By Your Name' on the other hand, is definitely going to aspire passion for a massive portion of the voters. We could have our youngest Best Actor winner since Adrien Brody. It's not impossible, not even unlikely.

Why is it crazy to suggest that Margot Robbie might be the Best Actress winner? She's wonderful in a totally baity part. (Not making a prediction in this category yet -- it seems like such a collision course of great candidates, I don't even have a grasp on who is even safe for a nomination at this point.)

Her reviews aren't as stellar as Hawkins and McDormand. (Janney completely outshines her.) Plus, the aforementioned 2 are in way stronger films--ones that are considered among the strongest BP candidates. Robbie has enough recognition to get nominated, but not enough admiration and buzz to win. It's not like she's campaigning like a mad dog or anything; so why are you doubting her loss? (Also IMO, TSOW is winning Director and 3BB is winning Picture. So there's that as well.) I'd put Ronan and Streep above Robbie.

[The Original BJ]

Thoughts on a few things that have been discussed recently:

I don't mean to go all Goldderby about this... but Gary Oldman is gonna win. It's not that it's necessarily such an undeniable performance as it is, simply, a PERFORMANCE, full of capital-A acting from beginning to end, with a significant physical/vocal transformation, in the role of a legendary world leader, delivered by an actor who has been widely respected for decades but has never won an Oscar. No other actor who has been seen already is even going to come close, so unless Hanks or Day-Lewis turn out work that's so legendary they can overcome the challenges of winning a third or fourth Oscar (possible in theory, but sight unseen, that's not the way I'd bet), it's Oldman. (And it's definitely not Chalamet -- I think some folks who haven't seen that film yet will be surprised just how recessive his role is.)

Neither Jenkins nor Shannon would be coattails nominees -- they both have plenty to work with. (In Shannon's case, I personally didn't think it showed a fresh enough side of him, but he's clearly got dominant scenes.) It's also not fair to refer to Octavia Spencer's role as a regressive stereotype -- she's a good-humored, caring woman who is shown to be a hard worker while struggling against racism and sexism. (Is it the simple fact that she plays a cleaning woman I'm supposed to find demeaning? Weren't plenty of janitors in 1960s Baltimore women of color?)

Why is it crazy to suggest that Margot Robbie might be the Best Actress winner? She's wonderful in a totally baity part. (Not making a prediction in this category yet -- it seems like such a collision course of great candidates, I don't even have a grasp on who is even safe for a nomination at this point.)

[Sabin]

bizarre wrote
Supporting Actor is such a bloodbath though I'd totally expect them to throw a bone to someone like Odenkirk. He has one "fun" line in the trailer, he plays the supporting character most featured in the script, and they did give do-nothing nominations to Ruffalo (bad) and McAdams (egregious) for Spotlight. And Ruffalo's category was insanely competitive that year - they snubbed Jacob Tremblay for him, and Tremblay would have won!

Well, I think it's very unlikely that Tremblay would have won. If it wasn't going to be Mark Rylance, it would have been Sylvester Stallone.

bizarre wrote
This year is baffling. It's exciting! But the one thing that would spoil it would be trifecta nominations for The Post and The Shape of Water. I love Hawkins and support her nomination but we don't need coattails for Jenkins or Shannon in audience surrogate and poorly-reviewed villain roles nor Spencer (bless her heart) playing another regressive stereotype without superlative reviews backing it up, especially when there are so many different interesting performances in the mix in both categories, albeit contending more competitively in Supporting Actress.

But you haven't seen these films. You're just basing this off of reviews. How can you claim without seeing the film "Sally Hawkins deserves a nomination for a film I haven't seen, but not Shannon or Jenkins?" I haven't seen 'The Shape of Water' but Richard Jenkins is one of my favorite actors and if he's good I'd love to see him nominated again.

bizarre wrote
And I'm not here for Hanks and Streep nominations for what look like phoned-in performances in a prefab DNC-liberal comfort blanket movie cynically churned out within the span of ten months simply to capitalise on today's political anxiety. They've done great things but I'm just hoping Hanks, Streep and Spielberg consider retirement and let some young turks come up and change the face of the Academy and its legacy, lol.

This strikes me as silly. You're complaining that Steven Spielberg, Meryl Streep, and Tom Hanks teamed up to make a project that would be socially relevant for the time that we live in? Don't we want that? This also minimizes the role of the writer, Liz Hannah, who wrote about Kay Graham out of a desire to tell a great story, apparently she did a great job, and then she just so happened to have her screenplay picked up by Steven Spielberg. Who knows how the movie will turn out (my prediction: pretty good), but what part of this process isn't inspiring?

[ThePianist]

But who would upset him?

TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET

[ThePianist]

I have a few words for this, I hope you don't mind. Not trying to be rude or confrontational. Just my thoughts.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
* The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I'd say this lineup is almost perfect. All you need is 'I, Tonya' and you'll be set.

Trust me, I'm getting 'Dallas Buyers Club' vibes from that.
(Plus, how can the film garner a Screenplay nom while Janney and Robbie win the acting awards, If the film doesn't have a BP Nom? Seems like a massive hole in logic.)

And predict TSOW to win at your own risk.

A Fantasy Film hasn't won Best Picture since 2004, mate. Nor is it a good idea to predict a BP Winner that's not nominated for screenplay, let alone winning. I seriously suggest leaning to Three Billboards for BP.

BEST DIRECTOR
* Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

Wait a minute, how can 2 studios balance 2 directing noms at the same time? WB is going to put all their load into Dunkirk, trust me. You should probably switch back to Luca, or someone else.

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

I'm not sure why you're predicting Emma Stone for a nomination. She seems fair for a Comedy Globe Nom, but nothing else. There's still a large influx of contenders with much stronger films. Please don't bring up 'The Feminist' angle, either. That's why we have Meryl Streep. Who (may I add) always gets nominated.

And you’re out of your mind If you believe Margot Robbie wins. I have no other words for that.

[bizarre]

And I do hope Oldman doesn't win. It's certainly one of those situations where the 'preordained' narrative was so strong it stood up to uninspiring reviews, a viable slate of competitors and the performance itself being hammy and crappy. Think The Last King of Scotland but with a Best Picture nomination. But who would upset him? Gyllenhaal would be the obvious alternative on paper but audiences seem to hate that film. It'd be a very 2017 thing for Franco to end up winning a Best Actor award for playing Tommy Wiseau while Best Actress goes to someone playing Tonya Harding!