Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

The Original BJ
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by The Original BJ »

I do think it's worth noting that the critics' groups haven't been immune from rewarding very traditional Oscar bait -- Jamie Foxx and Charlize Theron both won National Society, Colin Firth won NY/LA, Helen Mirren of course made a clean sweep in a very competitive year. I'm not suggesting that the traditional choice is always an unworthy one -- I think Mirren especially was quite praise-worthy -- just that the critics' groups aren't always reaching far afield for the quirkiest choices.

I'm not saying those candidates are all analogous to Oldman -- The King's Speech and The Queen were certainly more enthusiastically received films than Darkest Hour -- but I do see quite a bit of genuine acclaim in those reviews for him personally, regardless of my own more muted response to the work. I think he still may well contend for some of those prizes, though I'm certainly on the side of hoping for some more eclectic selections.

And in terms of other wishes...I would like to say that I REALLY hope no one runs the table in the Best Actress category. There are so many impressive performances by leading ladies this year, it just wouldn't seem fair for one of them to become an overwhelming consensus.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Precious Doll »

Oh shit. I wrote out a big lengthy post and it didn't appear. I'm too ill with the flu to attempt to redo it. :twisted:
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Mister Tee »

Well, we'll know the answer in a week, but my impression has been that that Oldman's performance is the kind many critics tend to sneer at when Oscar voters go for one -- the whole prosthetics/impersonating a famous figure thing. None of the major critics' groups went for Eddie Redmayne. They did go for Hoffman in Capote, but Capote was, unaccountably, a very highly-rated film -- I believe it topped Metacritic's chart for 2005. Darkest Hour isn't near that in status. Is it just Oldman's reputation that makes you think he'll carry the day? Because I don't think the mere fact that competition is thin is enough to sway critics' voting -- we're talking about people who've gone for movies like Locke and Paterson (and pretended Patricia Arquette was a lead actress) rather than opt for a choice that struck them as too obvious and mainstream.

I'm not remotely suggesting Oldman can be upset at the Oscars. The three TV awards will go to him effortlessly, which is a guarantee of an Oscar these days. But I really expect the three old-line critics' groups to search for something hipper. LA, especially -- I think James Franco seems like the kind of thing they'd go for in this situation.

I of course haven't seen Oldman yet, and maybe I'll come out loving him. But I'm surprised to hear him analogized to Forest Whitaker in '06, whose performance was certainly attention-getting but seemed genuinely admired by most critics. He also needed the help from awards, because his film wasn't much of a box-office success. (If I recall, till Whitaker made his unexpected run of the critics' prizes, many of us thought Peter O'Toole might win on sentiment.) That had him in a far different position from where Oldman stands today.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by The Original BJ »

Best Actor seems like a category where the critics groups could seriously make a difference by pushing someone on the fringes of the race (Stanton in Lucky? Bale in Hostiles? Pattinson in Good Time?), thereby vaulting them into a conversation where people start to ask, why not him?

I could even imagine this happening to one of the more talked-about contenders (like Franco or Gyllenhaal), who have always seemed to be in the conversation, but are a long way off from nailing down one of those non-Oldman spots.

That said, I think there’s also a decent possibility Oldman does quite well with these groups — the way Forest Whitaker did in a similarly thin Best Actor year — and just starts his march toward the inevitable.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Okri »

The one thing I’ve been trying to figure out is if critics settle on an advocacy pick of sorts. I’ve started this post so many times I may have actually posted it already, but let’s try again.

Tee pointed out a couple things from last Oscar season that intrigued me

a) That Portman, despite amazing reviews, couldn’t win any major critics prizes. She, of course, took a couple of the next level down awards (Chicago, for example) but despite not winning the critics prizes for Black Swan, they didn’t go for her.

b) Los Angeles, for all their rep about going outside the AMPAS mainstream, actually went for films well within the race that required help (Moonlight, Ali, Huppert) but avoided films that didn’t seem to (Affleck/Manchester/La La)

The former is odd in a couple ways, but mainly – critics groups don’t generally mind repeating themselves. Streep won in 2009 and 2011 from New York. Day-Lewis did in 2007 and 2012 from New York and National Society. And it’s not as if they’d be repeating themselves for Portman. A similar thing happened to Cate Blanchett the year prior. Though she ran the table for Blue Jasmine, her career redefining work in Carol couldn’t get her a seat at the table with the critics.

I mention that in tandem with Huppert last year. Now, Nathaniel Rogers over at The Film Experience predicted Huppert quite early in the Oscar race and basically stuck with it for the season. He pointed out that SPC was actually mounting a visible campaign and she seemed entirely game for it. I mean, it’s easy to imagine her not giving a shit, but she seemed genuinely enthusiastic the entire time. And then the critics endorsed her in the race in a big way. I don’t think the critics do that unless she actually has a shot at the Oscar nomination – even the BFCA predicted her and this was still early before she became central to the race. They didn’t recognize Sonia Braga for Aquarius and she was at least as great (but her film, of course, wasn’t eligible for Oscars in the end and it was also much much smaller. Elle grossed 2+ million, which is very respectable).

Both these things suggest that critics, whether accidentally or purposely, have their response shaped, in part, by this echo chamber and want to contribute/push people to the conversation. And if so, who do they push? I don’t really have a sense of what can win, beyond Oldman (and yes, I think the critics will rubber stamp him pretty quickly). Admittedly, I never get confident this early (because where’s the fun in that?) but at this time last year I thought that La La Land was in with a strong chance (admittedly, I had seen it). There are a few films that definitely need boosts to get into their races (The Breadwinner in animated, BPM in foreign/screenplay, Lucky for best actor) but they equally might be too far out of the race to really get that endorsement.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Mister Tee »

My weekly-for-a-few-weeks look at how the box office is affecting the Oscar outlook:

Coco opened about like Moana, which this year is plenty to move ahead in the animated feature race.

Wonder continues to do well, and could get that adapted screenplay nod I suggested, given the non-competition.

Murder of the Orient Express, despite critical indifference, is playing well enough to probably crack $100 million, which could be enough to get it into the design categories.

Call Me by Your Name had exactly the boffo opening it needed to validate the critical enthusiasm -- over $100,000 per, close to the year's best PTA. There's no telling where the film is going in the end -- LGBTQ films have a tendency to perform great in small samples and sink like a fallen souffle when they go wide -- but this opening suggests it's precisely the contender we've thought since January.

Darkest Hour seems determined to be the test case for how mediocre a movie can be and still get those "we love Brit period pieces" nominations. The film has a ho-hum 73 Metacritic score, and opened well-but-not-that-well this weekend -- a per-screen of $44,000 at 4 theatres, roughly comparable to what Theory of Everything did in its first weekend (when you figure in inflated holiday Friday results), well short of what The Imitation Game did three years ago in the same weekend/same number of theatres ($119,000 per). Is that enough to secure the best picture slot many seem to feel it gets simply for subject matter? I can think of a bunch of films I think are clearly ahead of it in the best picture queue (Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Three Billboards, Shape of Water), several others I think are probably ahead of it (Lady Bird, Get Out), with a few who-knows candidates (The BIg Sick, The Florida Project) and the two still unseen (The Post and The Phantom Thread). At best, it feels like the film might eke its way onto the slate, but I could see it topping out with actor/design/costumes/make-up.

Speaking of Three Billboards and Lady Bird -- both expanded well, the former, somewhat surprisingly, leapfrogging over the latter in PTA, meaning it might be a bigger success than I thought. Roman J. Israel, Esq., conversely, is Denzel's worst opening in forever, and seems dead even as an emergency best actor hopeful.

In non-money-oriented news: the social media embargo on The Post expires at midnight, so we'll soon have reactions -- though plenty of read-between-the-lines info has been dribbling out. Sabin's critic friend's response may well be the verdict from hipper corners of the film world, but the bland center seems to be going for it -- people like Tom O'Neil are going to be all in.

More interestingly, responses to The Phantom Thread have started to appear, and, while it's dangerous to make judgments based on limited data, I'd say at the very least the film is not as divisive as Inherent Vice. It's got a number of truly enthusiastic backers, which might be enough to get it into some high-profile categories, up to and including best picture/director.

Of course, we'll have better information on both these films in the days just ahead. The Post seems more NBR's cup of tea -- should it not appear in their Top Ten, its hopes will be diminished. Paul Thomas Anderson, by contrast, can hold out hope till at least a week from today, as LA has always been his most enthusiastic rooting section. And NY, in-between, could of course boost either film on Thursday.

Shit is finally getting real. This strikes me as a fairly interesting, wide-open year with pretty likable contenders. I hope I still feel that way after the next two weeks of narrowing-down.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by bizarre »

I expected nothing more from The Post, honestly. I expect that to be the consensus opinion judging from everything released so far.

To my mind these are the only viable contenders in each acting category, barring some major last minute campaigns or SAG tomfoolery:

Best Picture

SAFE BETS:
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

IN THE RUNNING:
The Big Sick
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Florida Project
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post

ON THE BUBBLE:
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Phantom Thread
Wonder
Wonderstruck

Best Director

SAFE BETS:
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

IN THE RUNNING:
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)

ON THE BUBBLE:
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
Dee Rees (Mudbound)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)

Best Actor

SAFE BETS:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

IN THE RUNNING:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

ON THE BUBBLE:
Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)

Best Actress

SAFE BETS:
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

IN THE RUNNING:
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)

ON THE BUBBLE:
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actor

SAFE BETS:
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

IN THE RUNNING:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Idris Elba (Molly's Game)
Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Bob Odenkirk (The Post)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

ON THE BUBBLE:
Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)

Best Supporting Actress

SAFE BETS:
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

IN THE RUNNING:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Julia Roberts (Wonder)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

ON THE BUBBLE:
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Allison Williams (Get Out)

Best Adapted Screenplay

SAFE BETS:
Call Me by Your Name

IN THE RUNNING:
Blade Runner 2049
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder
Wonderstruck

ON THE BUBBLE:
It
Last Flag Flying
Stronger
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder Woman

Best Original Screenplay

SAFE BETS:
Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

IN THE RUNNING:
The Big Sick
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
The Post
The Shape of Water

ON THE BUBBLE:
Beatriz at Dinner
Downsizing
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Sabin »

My film critic friend just saw 'The Post' and was not impressed. He is a fan of 'Bridge of Spies,' 'Lincoln,' and this mode of Spielberg overall. These were his thoughts:

* The movie is about Meryl Streep hemming and hawing about whether or not to release the papers, then she does. End of movie. Ultimately, there just might not be much of a story there.
* It can't decide whether or not it's about Kay Graham overcoming sexism or about publishing the papers. In the end, it's not really about either one.
* Lots of speeches.
* Everybody has a bad wig. No standouts. It feels like Hollywood dress-up.
* Neither Hanks or Streep are anything special, and neither convince in their roles.
* It has a terrific opening sequence that recalls 'Bridge of Spies' though less good, and the movie is a comedown from there. There's one scene that he loves that he didn't want to ruin for me.
* It's not going to win Oscars. People will find enough to like in it, but it's not a contender.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Okri »

Mister Tee wrote:Does opening on December 8th (like I, Tonya is doing) really provide that much more traction?
I'm not sure, but what I expect is that I, Tonya does terrific numbers in limited release, thus convincing voters to pop in the screener (which they already have). Janney is already a top-tier contender in supporting so I think that helps too. I do think Hawkins/McDormand/Ronan are ahead of the pack, though.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Mister Tee »

Does opening on December 8th (like I, Tonya is doing) really provide that much more traction? It seems to me the things that propel people/films into the Oscar race these days is showing at a September festival and screening for Guilds/critics/HFPA so as to secure slots when they release their lists in the first two weeks of December -- and Molly's Game appears to have done all these things just as much as I, Tonya (and more than The Post, which I realize is higher-profile, but still...). I've seen the Molly's Game trailer the last two times I've been to the movies; it's not like it's hiding. Does being out in theatres a few weeks earlier for general audiences even make any difference these days?

That list you guys are talking about seems to be turning up everywhere, and it's reminding me of Dern/Ejiofor/Hanks/McConaughey/Redford from 2013, which was everybody's list till 2 of the 5 ended up missing the Oscar slate. I obviously haven't seen Jessica Chastain yet, but my impression is her reviews are on par with the others, and she's not going to be a solo campaign -- nearly everyone thinks Sorkin will get a screenplay nod, and Idris Elba seems to be at least a contender in the supporting actor field. I see no reason why she can't make her mark, if groups like the Broadcaster and Globers come through for her.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Okri »

The Original BJ wrote:I've been thinking that lineup too, Sabin (though I think Winslet probably has more in common with the "on the bubble" group than the "dark horses," but that's nit-picking.)

By all accounts Chastain is wonderful -- I'm actually seeing Molly's Game tonight -- but it struck me as a really dumb campaign strategy to move that release to Christmas Day, which just doesn't leave that much runway for her to build traction. (Recall that Chastain missed what could have been a pretty gettable nomination a few years back with A Most Violent Year, but the New Year's release proved deadly.)
Yeah, at least A24 has learned since then.

I'm assuming that the Christmas release means this will be more a box office player than anything.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Sabin »

The Original BJ wrote
By all accounts Chastain is wonderful -- I'm actually seeing Molly's Game tonight -- but it struck me as a really dumb campaign strategy to move that release to Christmas Day, which just doesn't leave that much runway for her to build traction. (Recall that Chastain missed what could have been a pretty gettable nomination a few years back with A Most Violent Year, but the New Year's release proved deadly.)
I'm pretty sure I predicted Jessica Chastain would get in that year, but I think A Most Violent Year just wasn't their jam. It has an affected rhythm that they couldn't get into. The shift to New Year's was probably a terrible move. After the National Board of Review declared it their surprise winner on December 2nd, it had a burst of momentum. "What's that film?" By the end of the month, it had stiffed at the Golden Globes and the SAG awards, and its moment was gone.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by mlrg »

Those five are exactly the same I'm predicting as per my last weeks post on this thread.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by The Original BJ »

I've been thinking that lineup too, Sabin (though I think Winslet probably has more in common with the "on the bubble" group than the "dark horses," but that's nit-picking.)

By all accounts Chastain is wonderful -- I'm actually seeing Molly's Game tonight -- but it struck me as a really dumb campaign strategy to move that release to Christmas Day, which just doesn't leave that much runway for her to build traction. (Recall that Chastain missed what could have been a pretty gettable nomination a few years back with A Most Violent Year, but the New Year's release proved deadly.)
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Post by Sabin »

It seems a consensus is building. Kristopher Tapley on Best Actress. It seems solid to me. Reminds me of 2004, 2006, 2010...

LEAD ACTRESS FRONTRUNNERS
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

ON THE BUBBLE
Annette Bening, “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Vicky Krieps, “Phantom Thread”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

DARK HORSES
Diane Kruger, “In the Fade”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Mother!”
Brooklynn Prince, “The Florida Project”
Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”
Kate Winslet, “Wonder Wheel”
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