Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[bizarre]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bob Odenkirk (The Post)

Early word from the first screening of The Post last night says that only Streep and Hanks have enough to do in the film to warrant awards attention. There also seems to be a “haven’t we seen this before?” kind of response to the film. I see a respectful response given the timely subject matter and maybe a few acting nominations could be in the cards, but a huge haul is probably not (and no way is it going to win Best Picture). Also, Tom Hanks has a bad wig!

Personally I think The Post looks fucking boring, I expect above-the-line nominations out of respect for its topicality and the talent involved, but I don't think Streep will get in in a competitive category and I think Hanks (who looks terrible in the trailer) probably won't have the support to break a rarefied field that is nevertheless populated with passion-driven contenders in smaller actors' vehicles.

Supporting Actor is such a bloodbath though I'd totally expect them to throw a bone to someone like Odenkirk. He has one "fun" line in the trailer, he plays the supporting character most featured in the script, and they did give do-nothing nominations to Ruffalo (bad) and McAdams (egregious) for Spotlight. And Ruffalo's category was insanely competitive that year - they snubbed Jacob Tremblay for him, and Tremblay would have won!

This year is baffling. It's exciting! But the one thing that would spoil it would be trifecta nominations for The Post and The Shape of Water. I love Hawkins and support her nomination but we don't need coattails for Jenkins or Shannon in audience surrogate and poorly-reviewed villain roles nor Spencer (bless her heart) playing another regressive stereotype without superlative reviews backing it up, especially when there are so many different interesting performances in the mix in both categories, albeit contending more competitively in Supporting Actress. And I'm not here for Hanks and Streep nominations for what look like phoned-in performances in a prefab DNC-liberal comfort blanket movie cynically churned out within the span of ten months simply to capitalise on today's political anxiety. They've done great things but I'm just hoping Hanks, Streep and Spielberg consider retirement and let some young turks come up and change the face of the Academy and its legacy, lol.

[flipp525]

How could I have forgotten Dougie Jones from Twin Peaks?! My favorite Doug Jones of the year so far.

[FilmFan720]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bob Odenkirk (The Post)

Also, how interesting that the Amphibious Man in The Shape of Water is being played by an actor named Doug Jones. Hopefully the character and the politician of the same name will both win out this year.

Throw in the fan-favorite Twin Peaks: The Return character, and it is the year of Doug(ie) Jones'!!!!!

[flipp525]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bob Odenkirk (The Post)

Early word from the first screening of The Post last night says that only Streep and Hanks have enough to do in the film to warrant awards attention. There also seems to be a “haven’t we seen this before?” kind of response to the film. I see a respectful response given the timely subject matter and maybe a few acting nominations could be in the cards, but a huge haul is probably not (and no way is it going to win Best Picture). Also, Tom Hanks has a bad wig!

Someone pointed this out to me last night and Octavia Spencer apparently herself pointed it out in a recent interview: Spencer was nominated for (and won) an Oscar for her role as a cleaning lady/maid in The Help. Last year she was nominated for playing a woman working at NASA in Hidden Figures. If she’s nominated again this year for The Shape of Water, it will be for playing a cleaning lady working at a NASA-ish facility. Also, I think I have this right, she would be the first African-American actress to have been nominated for back-to-back acting Oscars.

Also, how interesting that the Amphibious Man in The Shape of Water is being played by an actor named Doug Jones. Hopefully the character and the politician of the same name will both win out this year.

With the success of Wonder, Julia Roberts needs to at least be considered in supporting. That category is lacking in old-fashioned star power, and I can see her making it in on the popularity of her film. Sort of like the Cher nomination for Mask that never happened. I like Tee’s idea that Jacob Tremblay could become a factor in Best Actor. I think the fact that he just lost out on a nomination for Room a couple years ago could really work in his favor. And that category is so lost at sea right now. That would be cool to have two of the youngest nominees ever competing in that category. And are folks just taking for granted a default Gary Oldman win? Granted, I haven’t seen Darkest Hour yet, but the default win for Oldman doesn’t seem as inevitable to me here as it might’ve been in another year. There also seems something very been-there-done-that especially with John Lithgow’s surprising turn as Churchill in The Crown just last year.

[Mister Tee]

Since this is the time of year when box office results actually impact the Oscars, this week's report:

First, to pat myself on the back a bit, I said a few months back that Justice League would offset all the goodwill DC had gained with Wonder Woman. The film's flop status ($96 million a flop? In this perverted world, yes) vindicates me. Not on the level of Sonic's Al Franken call, but still...

To more Oscar-specific thoughts...word had been out for months that Wonder might be an audience favorite, and the way-over-expectation $27 million first weekend proves that out. Some hysterics at AwardsWatch have jumped to full-on "it's another Blind Side!", but we'll have to wait a while on that. I will say, though, that the bereft adapted screenplay slate might find a spot for it, and, maybe-maybe, Jacob Tremblay could contend for a filler spot in the refuses-to-improve best actor field.

Lady Bird and Three Billboards continued to shine with expansion. Lady Bird looks like a true general audience success, at least at Big Sick level, maybe much more with Oscar help. Three Billboards is still only at 50 or so theatres, but at the moment is tracking Spotlight's trajectory. Next weekend: Darkest Hour and Call Me by Your Name join the fray, with Shape of Water and Wonder Wheel to follow in short order. As usual, we wade through months of mediocrity, then are offered an over-full buffet.

Less of a success story: Roman J. Israel, Esq. managed only a $16,000 PTA in 4 theatres. It's conceivable Denzel's dependable audience will come out when the film goes wide next week, but as a specialty item it's faltering, which doesn't suggest the best actor campaign will have a lot of lift to it.

Last Flag Flying is down to under $2000 per at only 60 theatres, so it appears a dead issue.

ON EDIT: I didn't mention Mudbound, because there's no info available. Is Netflix refusing to provide numbers for it? I don't mean streaming numbers; I'm talking about box-office. Unlike Beasts of No Nation, this film did manage to get some prime NY/LA real estate -- in NY, playing the Lincoln Plaza, same place Darkest Hour is opening this week. The same was true of The Meyerowitz Stories, and no numbers were reported for that, either. I don't understand what game Netflix is playing. AMPAS doesn't like/seems to be opposing their model, and getting the films booked into major venues seemed to be a counter to that. But what's the point if you don't track grosses, since they're what the Hollywood powers that be judge by? Most people think Mudbound has a shot at nominations -- the easy-get adapted screenplay, maybe a supporting actor, even film or director at best. But the studio isn't making their task any easier.

[bizarre]

Here's mine:

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
* The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR
* Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Bob Odenkirk (The Post)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Breadwinner
* Coco
Ferdinand
In This Corner of the World
Loving Vincent

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Chasing Coral
* City of Ghosts
Faces, Places
Jane
One of Us

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
A Ciambra (Italy)
* Foxtrot (Israel)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
The Wound (South Africa)

[mlrg]

Every year I post my final pre-precursors predictions by the end of November. I think this year nothing much will change in the next couple of weeks, so I´ll post them today:

Best Picture
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
The Shape of Water

Best Director
Christopher Nolan “Dunkirk”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Phantom Thread”
Steven Spielberg “The Post”
Guillermo del Toro “The Shape of Water”
Martin McDonagh “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri”

Best Actor
Thimotee Chalamet “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day Lewis “Phantom Thread”
James Franco “The Disaster Artist”
Jake Gyllenhaal “Stronger”
Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand “Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri”
Margot Robbie “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep “The Post”

Best Sup Actor
Willem Dafoe “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer “Call Me By You Name”
Richaed Jenkins “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell ““Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri”
Michael Stuhlbarg “Call Me By Your Name”

Best Sup Actress
Mary J. Blige “Mudbound”
Holly Hunter “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer “The Shape of Water”

[Mister Tee]

I know the analogy isn't perfect, but Mark Rylance in Dunkirk reminds me a bit of Sean Astin in Return of the King. In each case, the film was (rightly) considered a prime best picture hopeful, and, given that such films often generate acting nominations, the search was on for who in the cast MIGHT be singled out, and Astin/Rylance is where the search ended up. Rylance is certainly the standout actor of the Dunkirk cast, but I'm not sure that translates to standout performance.

Where Rylance has an edge on Astin is, of course, his greater fame and his two-years-ago Oscar. Where he seems weaker is vis a vis the level of competiton. Astin lost out to a truly motley crew of nominees -- one of the last genuinely eclectic supporting slates, with never-before-nominated actors from beyond-weak efforts like The Cooler and The Last Samurai securing slots, and only Tim Robbins representing a best picture contender. This year, we have, as you guys are noting, multiple candidates from best picture hopefuls (Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards), as well as prominent former nominee Wille Dafoe, and Idris Elba, attached to a prominent best actress hopeful. I'm with Sabin: if Rylance does manage to secure a slot over one of those more-highly-praised gentlemen, it will be seen as the Academy doing something stupid/rote, at the expense of someone more deserving.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
That’s fine! Just trying to explore all possibilities. I’m not necessarily predicting him either. It just seems like he was one of the first acting nominees in the conversation (in any category, really).

I mean, you're right. He unfortunately has to be in the conversation as is the actor with the most visible role in ostensibly the Best Picture front-runner who happens to be a recent winner in this category and is also super British. He will most assuredly end up with a BAFTA nomination, which for the past ten years has matched up with the eventual nominees 3-4/5 in this category (except for 2009, but that one was weird). So, it is entirely possible that Rylance will end up nominated. But if nominated, it will be the biggest waste of an acting nomination since who? Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland?

[flipp525]

That’s fine! Just trying to explore all possibilities. I’m not necessarily predicting him either. It just seems like he was one of the first acting nominees in the conversation (in any category, really).

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
Also, Dunkirk might pull Mark Rylance into the race. He was a name bandied about early on and if we apply BJ’s “bird in the hand” rule he could benefit from the amorphous nature of the category.

No. That's nonsense. I know he's going to end up getting a BAFTA nomination, but I will bet against a Rylance nomination because I just have to.

[flipp525]

Also, Dunkirk might pull Mark Rylance into the race. He was a name bandied about early on and if we apply BJ’s “bird in the hand” rule he could benefit from the amorphous nature of the category.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
Personally though, of the several dual-nominee Supporting Actor possibilities this season (The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Call Me), I think Call Me (and Armie Hammer), has the best shot.

Could be wrong, but it's hard to look at The Shape of Water as a film that gets several acting nominations. Some combination of Harrelson and Rockwell for Three Billboards, Hammer and Stuhlbarg for Call Me..., and/or Willem DaFoe and Idris Elba.

[ThePianist]

Dunkirk - Globe and BAFTA
Three Billboards - SAG Ensemble and Oscar
Lady Bird - PGA?

[flipp525]

Does your friend say which Supporting Actor?

Michael Stuhlbarg.

Personally though, of the several dual-nominee Supporting Actor possibilities this season (The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Call Me), I think Call Me (and Armie Hammer, has the best shot.

I seem to recall Jake Gyllenhaal not being as sure of a thing as Heath Ledger’s well-assured, near-win lead performance in Brokeback. He pulled through into the awards season easily.