Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[Big Magilla]

I think the one we're underestimating the most for Supporting Actress is Claire Foy as Andrew Garfield's supportive wife in Breathe. Granted, the film received mixed reviews and had no traction at the box-office, but will likely get attention on screeners from the legion of fans she picked up with The Crown.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Lady Bird continues to thrive -- looking for $35,000 per at 37 theatres, meaning around $1 million and potentially a top ten finish. This looks like a real hit.

I agree. I think it’s time to start viewing Lady Bird as a major contender. People are ecstatic about it.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
Haddish herself is enormously likable. They should send her to every meet & greet opportunity.

This is true, but it’s still an uphill battle. Working in her favor though are organizations like the critic’s choice awards who will at least put her chances on the map, allowing her to campaign more.

[Mister Tee]

You could look at it this way: we'll find out if Oscar is truly an eternal sucker for such films, or if it was just that Harvey Weinstein knew how to pitch them to voters.

coughcoughTheTheoryofEverythingcoughcough

Also, both have 72 at metacritic

Full disclosure: I don't remember the advance praise for The King's Speech even though I know it won Toronto.

Theory of Everything is, you're correct, a non-Weinstein instance. Though, even there, the Felicity Jones nod resulted from a truly barren best actress field -- an advantage I don't think Scott Thomas or Mendehlson have -- and it also benefited from softer competition on the adapted side of screenplay. (If Darkest Hour now decides it, after all, is adapted, I'd fully expect it to get a nomination there.)

Because The King's Speech got pigeonholed as the square option vis a vis the hipster Social Network (not claiming that as reality, but the perception), people seemed to understate how well-reviewed it was. It still sits at 88 on Metacritic, and roughly that score was already in view after the festival response.

Box-office update:

Lady Bird continues to thrive -- looking for $35,000 per at 37 theatres, meaning around $1 million and potentially a top ten finish. This looks like a real hit.

Three Billboards did the huge-per-screen dance this weekend, scoring likely over $70,000 each at 4 theatres. Obviously unknowable if that will translate to a wide run, but at least to start it's behaving like an art-house hotshot (to use an old Variety term).

Last Flag Flying is comparatively a disappointment, doing much more flaccid numbers.

Is it pure coincidence, or part of the zeitgeist, that the female-fronted films are the ones breaking through best (with Shape of Water to come)?

[Okri]

Helena Bonham Carter didn’t have a huge part in King’s Speech, but I thought she was at least a delight when she was on screen. I personally thought Thomas didn’t make much of an impression at all. (I also found King’s Speech far more entertaining/fresh overall than Darkest Hour, even if I didn’t want it to win Best Picture.)

Mendehlson has a solid part, though, probably the strongest of the supporting cast. I could see him getting some traction.

I remember thinking Helena Bonham Carter might have been the winner after the first 40 minutes or so of The King's Speech, but then she disappeared.

Much of the blogger hype around Kristin Scott Thomas stems from 1) the fact the role had her on all the year-in-advance lists and 2) the presumption that Darkest Hour is such an Oscar sure-thing it's going to carry everything along with it, the way The King's Speech did. This in spite of the fact the film is WAY behind King's Speech level in advance praise. I'm not saying it's impossible it'll do well; The Imitation Game did, with a similarly mediocre response. But I think it's as likely to be limited to actor/design/costumes/makeup as it is to truly sweep the boards.

You could look at it this way: we'll find out if Oscar is truly an eternal sucker for such films, or if it was just that Harvey Weinstein knew how to pitch them to voters.

coughcoughTheTheoryofEverythingcoughcough

Also, both have 72 at metacritic

Full disclosure: I don't remember the advance praise for The King's Speech even though I know it won Toronto.

[MaxWilder]

Will Haddish get nominated for an Oscar? At this point, it depends on The Post and Phantom Thread. If there aren't any standout supporting female performances in either film, I think the case for Haddish will probably have to be made.

Haddish herself is enormously likable. They should send her to every meet & greet opportunity.

[flipp525]

I saw Michelle Williams in Cabaret on Broadway a few years ago and it was one of the most electrifying performances I had ever seen on stage. I know that everyone was talking about Emma Stone’s take on Sally Bowles that season (she took over the role for Williams), but I was just astounded when I saw her.

I’m looking forward to her musical numbers in The Greatest Showman but not much else about the film.

[Sabin]

I read somewhere that FOX isn't positioning it for major awards consideration because they don't see the point. That's the reason why I'm not predicting it for much.

[OscarGuy]

I see little mention of Michelle Williams for The Greatest Showman. I know the film hasn't been seen and everyone believes it will be a turd (I think it looks like it might be spectacular). Jackman is often mentioned as a Best Actor contender, but Williams who has four nominations so far and was near-miss on nominations at least two or three times. She plays a role of supportive wife that has gotten recognized before and while a case could be made for her being co-lead, I'll bet they push her in support. That she also sings could be icing on the cake for the Academy.

Considering the Academy's further penchant for nominating supporting actresses in musicals (Chicago, Nine, Dreamgirls, Les Miserables) and the other factors working in Williams' favor (such as her willingness at re-shooting scenes for All the Money in the World), I think she's a very strong contender and possibly even the strongest (considering her resume) for a win.

[Mister Tee]

Helena Bonham Carter didn’t have a huge part in King’s Speech, but I thought she was at least a delight when she was on screen. I personally thought Thomas didn’t make much of an impression at all. (I also found King’s Speech far more entertaining/fresh overall than Darkest Hour, even if I didn’t want it to win Best Picture.)

Mendehlson has a solid part, though, probably the strongest of the supporting cast. I could see him getting some traction.

I remember thinking Helena Bonham Carter might have been the winner after the first 40 minutes or so of The King's Speech, but then she disappeared.

Much of the blogger hype around Kristin Scott Thomas stems from 1) the fact the role had her on all the year-in-advance lists and 2) the presumption that Darkest Hour is such an Oscar sure-thing it's going to carry everything along with it, the way The King's Speech did. This in spite of the fact the film is WAY behind King's Speech level in advance praise. I'm not saying it's impossible it'll do well; The Imitation Game did, with a similarly mediocre response. But I think it's as likely to be limited to actor/design/costumes/makeup as it is to truly sweep the boards.

You could look at it this way: we'll find out if Oscar is truly an eternal sucker for such films, or if it was just that Harvey Weinstein knew how to pitch them to voters.

[The Original BJ]

Helena Bonham Carter didn’t have a huge part in King’s Speech, but I thought she was at least a delight when she was on screen. I personally thought Thomas didn’t make much of an impression at all. (I also found King’s Speech far more entertaining/fresh overall than Darkest Hour, even if I didn’t want it to win Best Picture.)

Mendehlson has a solid part, though, probably the strongest of the supporting cast. I could see him getting some traction.

[Sabin]

The Original BJ wrote
One supporting actress contender I really hope the pundits are wrong about is Kristin Scott Thomas, who I thought had barely anything of note to do in Darkest Hour. This would be a totally rote nomination for a supportive spouse in a biopic. Which doesn’t mean it won’t happen, of course, especially given that she feels about due for a second nomination at this point.

I mean, Helena Bonham Carter didn't have anything much to do in The King's Speech. If I'm not mistaken, they even cut her best line from the trailer. If she makes as much of an impression, then she'll get a coattail nomination.

What about Ben Mendehlson? Does he make an impression?

[The Original BJ]

Williams is being campaigned for lead. (Who knows if that sticks, though.)

One supporting actress contender I really hope the pundits are wrong about is Kristin Scott Thomas, who I thought had barely anything of note to do in Darkest Hour. This would be a totally rote nomination for a supportive spouse in a biopic. Which doesn’t mean it won’t happen, of course, especially given that she feels about due for a second nomination at this point.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
I think that Allison Williams is worth revisiting for her performance in Get Out. She was mentioned early and the dearth of a strong bench might resurrect her initial buzz.

Wasn't she going for lead or am I misremembering that?

flipp525 wrote
The amorphous quality of the Best Supporting Actor race (coupled with the dual-nominee “duels” mentioned by Sabin) might allow a random nomination a la Ray Romano in The Big Sick to make an unexpected appearance.

I doubt Ray Romano has much of a chance, but to me he's the clear standout of the film.

[flipp525]

I think that Allison Williams is worth revisiting for her performance in Get Out. She was mentioned early and the dearth of a strong bench might resurrect her initial buzz.

The amorphous quality of the Best Supporting Actor race (coupled with the dual-nominee “duels” mentioned by Sabin) might allow a random nomination a la Ray Romano in The Big Sick to make an unexpected appearance.