Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[Sabin]

I get a vibe of silliness from the new 'Murder on the Orient Express.' Then again, 'Mother!' is pretty silly too but in a more startling way.

I expect that Michelle Pfeiffer will receive a Golden Globe nomination for Best Supporting Actress, maybe a SAG nomination, similar to Nicole Kidman in 'The Paperboy.' Probably not an Oscar nomination. She's a very high-profile actor utilized in a way we haven't really seen before. But that race has yet to form at all.

The theme of Best Supporting Actress is 'Bad Moms.' Allison Janney for 'I, Tonya' and Laurie Metcalf for 'Lady Bird.' Holly Hunter for 'The Big Sick' could make it in. Bria Vinaite for 'The Florida Project' should make it in (but probably won't).

Beyond that, Kirsten Scott Thomas for 'Darkest Hour' and Octavia Spencer for 'The Shape of Water' are probably good bets. Supporting girlfriends Claire Foy 'Breathe' and Tatiana Maslany for 'Stronger' seem to be falling of, but if they both ended up nominated I wouldn't be surprised. We can't know anything about the supporting women from 'The Post' or 'Phantom Thread.'

[flipp525]

I’m not saying it’s happening, but her reviews have been great and she has that comeback narrative aided, in part, by her mother! role.

Bacall was never an Academy darling. I’m not sure using her as some sort of benchmark is wise.

Anyway, just throwing a new name in the mix.

[OscarGuy]

If Lauren Bacall couldn't in the same role, I doubt Pfeiffer will in this one.

[flipp525]

There seems to be some nascent, percolating discussion of Michelle Pfeiffer showing up in Best Supporting Actress for Murder on the Orient Express.

[dws1982]

The Original BJ wrote
The Loving switch caught me more off guard, but that too had a "based in part on the documentary The Loving Story" credit. Which is to say, one could reasonably debate how adapted something "based in part" on something else is.

This is not to say that the distinctions here are always cut and dry. But I don't see any similar "based on" citation in Darkest Hour's credit, which would seem to more logically keep it on the Original side with stuff like Spotlight and Bridge of Spies.

Before its release, Gangs of New York was widely reported to be inspired by Herbert Asbury's 1927 non-fiction book, The Gangs of New York. Why wasn't that an adapted screenplay?

Well it literally only took the title from Asbury's book and made up everything else.

[bizarre]

Has anyone been considering 'It' as an Adapted Screenplay contender? It was a massive hit with strong reviews and the category is tundra with every contender save Call Me by Your Name dealing with heavy caveats: mixed reception (Molly's Game, Last Flag Flying, Wonderstruck, Stronger, Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool), distributor prejudices (Mudbound, Hostiles, First They Killed My Father) poor box office (Blade Runner 2049) or category confusion (Darkest Hour, The Post). The Disaster Artist and Wonder Woman would join It in having to overcome genre pushback. What's left to be seen? Wonder? All the Money in the World?

[bizarre]

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* “Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”†
“The Disaster Artist”
“Molly’s Game”
“The Post”†

† - these productions are already slick, calculated Oscar bait of the most obnoxious kind and their campaign teams are highly likely to recognise the strength of the Original field vs. the Adapted one and fraud their films into that race with false or retroactive citations (as far as I know Darkest Hour has already planned this).

Darkest Hour's campaign is for Original Screenplay, and I'm honestly not sure how they would switch horses mid-stream -- the movie is already finished and screening without a source material credit. Why wouldn't it compete in Original like all other fact-based films that don't credit a published source?

The Post seems a lot more possible simply because it (presumably) isn't finished yet, which means the credit arbitration might not be finished either, and some last-minute finagling could still occur.

I hadn't realized The Disaster Artist was based on a book -- sight unseen, that seems like as likely a possibility for this race as anything. (Plus, Oscar really owes those guys after 500 Days of Summer).

I honestly find the thought of thinking of 2018 contenders completely exhausting.

I'd read somewhere that they were preparing a non-fiction 'source' that would be published after the fact? Though it's still unclear - on some forums it's being listed on polls for both screenplay categories until something is finalised. We all know what happened with Loving last year etc.

Re: 2018, I have literally nothing better to do.

[ThePianist]

Best Original Screenplay could end up housing Darkest Hour and The Post.

Doubt it--'Adapted' seems really weak this year. There's even some predicting Mudbound in the category.

One of them is bound to switch. Original is too packed: The Big Sick, Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards, Shape of Water, The Florida Project.

[Sabin]

The Original BJ wrote
The Loving switch caught me more off guard, but that too had a "based in part on the documentary The Loving Story" credit. Which is to say, one could reasonably debate how adapted something "based in part" on something else is.

This is not to say that the distinctions here are always cut and dry. But I don't see any similar "based on" citation in Darkest Hour's credit, which would seem to more logically keep it on the Original side with stuff like Spotlight and Bridge of Spies.

Before its release, Gangs of New York was widely reported to be inspired by Herbert Asbury's 1927 non-fiction book, The Gangs of New York. Why wasn't that an adapted screenplay? What about My Big Fat Greek Wedding? It was a stage play but it began as an original screenplay. It's all political. Best Adapted Screenplay was so crowded that year that About Schmidt and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers couldn't make it in.

Best Adapted Screenplay could end up housing Darkest Hour and The Post.
(NOTE: edited to say "Best Adapted Screenplay)

[OscarGuy]

If the music branch can ding a song for not being written for the film when it was never published, but written years before, then Moonlight certainly qualifies as an adaptation. Whether his play had been previously produced or not doesn't mean that he didn't try and therefore, I totally understand that citation.

[The Original BJ]

The Original BJ wrote
Darkest Hour's campaign is for Original Screenplay, and I'm honestly not sure how they would switch horses mid-stream -- the movie is already finished and screening without a source material credit. Why wouldn't it compete in Original like all other fact-based films that don't credit a published source?

I mean, they did it last year for Moonlight and Loving. The latter of which is a better example. They cited that it began production as a documentary.

Moonlight's "based on a story by" credit always seemed like it could have been open to interpretation, depending on whether you viewed Terrell Alvin McCraney's work as an original story that led to a film (the way the WGA did) or source material that Jenkins adapted (the way Oscar did).

The Loving switch caught me more off guard, but that too had a "based in part on the documentary The Loving Story" credit. Which is to say, one could reasonably debate how adapted something "based in part" on something else is.

This is not to say that the distinctions here are always cut and dry. But I don't see any similar "based on" citation in Darkest Hour's credit, which would seem to more logically keep it on the Original side with stuff like Spotlight and Bridge of Spies.

[Sabin]

The Original BJ wrote
Darkest Hour's campaign is for Original Screenplay, and I'm honestly not sure how they would switch horses mid-stream -- the movie is already finished and screening without a source material credit. Why wouldn't it compete in Original like all other fact-based films that don't credit a published source?

I mean, they did it last year for Moonlight and Loving. The latter of which is a better example. They cited that it began production as a documentary.

[The Original BJ]

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* “Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”†
“The Disaster Artist”
“Molly’s Game”
“The Post”†

† - these productions are already slick, calculated Oscar bait of the most obnoxious kind and their campaign teams are highly likely to recognise the strength of the Original field vs. the Adapted one and fraud their films into that race with false or retroactive citations (as far as I know Darkest Hour has already planned this).

Darkest Hour's campaign is for Original Screenplay, and I'm honestly not sure how they would switch horses mid-stream -- the movie is already finished and screening without a source material credit. Why wouldn't it compete in Original like all other fact-based films that don't credit a published source?

The Post seems a lot more possible simply because it (presumably) isn't finished yet, which means the credit arbitration might not be finished either, and some last-minute finagling could still occur.

I hadn't realized The Disaster Artist was based on a book -- sight unseen, that seems like as likely a possibility for this race as anything. (Plus, Oscar really owes those guys after 500 Days of Summer).

I honestly find the thought of thinking of 2018 contenders completely exhausting.

[bizarre]

New Big 8 predictions for both this year and the next:

2017 Predictions:

BEST PICTURE
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
* “The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST DIRECTOR
* Guillermo del Toro, for “The Shape of Water”
Luca Guadagnino, for “Call Me by Your Name”
Martin McDonagh, for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan, for “Dunkirk”
Denis Villeneuve, for “Blade Runner 2049”

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, in “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, in “Phantom Thread”
James Franco, in “The Disaster Artist”
Jake Gyllenhaal, in “Stronger”
* Gary Oldman, in “Darkest Hour”

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, in “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
* Margot Robbie, in “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, in “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, in “Battle of the Sexes”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, in “The Florida Project”
Idris Elba, in “Molly’s Game”
* Sam Rockwell, in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Michael Shannon, in “The Shape of Water”
Michael Stuhlbarg, in “Call Me by Your Name”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau, in “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter, in “The Big Sick”
* Allison Janney, in “I, Tonya”
Melissa Leo, in “Novitiate”
Laurie Metcalf, in “Lady Bird”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* “Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”†
“The Disaster Artist”
“Molly’s Game”
“The Post”†

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
* “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

† - these productions are already slick, calculated Oscar bait of the most obnoxious kind and their campaign teams are highly likely to recognise the strength of the Original field vs. the Adapted one and fraud their films into that race with false or retroactive citations (as far as I know Darkest Hour has already planned this).

---

2018 Predictions:

BEST PICTURE
“Ad Astra”
“Annihilation”
* “Backseat”
“Boy Erased”
“Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot”
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Radegund”
“Where’d You Go, Bernadette?”

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, for “First Man”
Alex Garland, for “Annihilation”
Terrence Malick, for “Radegund”
* Adam McKay, for “Backseat”
Gus Van Sant, for “Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot”

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, in “Backseat”
Ben Foster, in “My Abandonment”
Ryan Gosling, in “First Man”
Lucas Hedges, in “Boy Erased”
* Joaquin Phoenix, in “Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot”

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, in “Where’d You Go, Bernadette?”
Elle Fanning, in “Galveston”
KiKi Layne, in “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Natalie Portman, in “Annihilation”
* Michelle Williams, in “Janis”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Timothée Chalamet, in “Beautiful Boy”
Russell Crowe, in “Boy Erased”
Robert Forster, in “What They Had”
Richard E. Grant, in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Corey Stoll, in “First Man”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Amy Adams, in “Backseat”
Kathy Bates, in “On the Basis of Sex”
Olivia Colman, in “The Favourite”
Nicole Kidman, in “Boy Erased”
Regina King, in “If Beale Street Could Talk”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Boy Erased”
* “Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot”
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Where’d You Go, Bernadette?”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Ad Astra”
* “Backseat”
“Janis”
“Peterloo”
“Tomorrow”

[ThePianist]

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name*
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks - The Post

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of a Water*
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird*
Melissa Leo - Novitiate
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Directing
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg - The Post
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Screenplay
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig
The Post - Josh Singer, Elizabeth Hannah
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh*

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory*
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Last Flag Flying - Richard Linklater
Molly’s Game - Aaron Sorkin

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 - Roger Deakins
Call Me By Your Name - Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema
The Florida Project - Alexis Zabe
The Shape of Water - Dan Laustsen*

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran - Beauty and the Beast
Jacqueline Durran - Darkest Hour
Mark Bridges - Phantom Thread*
Luis Sequeira - The Shape of Water
Consolata Boyle - Victoria and Abdul

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Achievement in Film Editing
Call Me By Your Name - Walter Fasano
Dunkirk - Lee Smith*
Get Out - Gregory Plotkin
The Shape of Water - Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - John Gregory

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water
Spiderman: Homecoming
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour*
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Production Design
Blade Runner 2049*
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Josh Groban - Evermore (Beauty and the Beast)
Sufjan Stevens - Mystery of Love (Call Me By Your Name)
Sufjan Stevens - Visions of Gideon* (Call Me By Your Name)
Kristen Anderson-Lopez, and Robert Lopez - The World Es Mi Familia (Coco)
ZAYN, Taylor Swift - I Don't Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Dario Marianelli - Darkest Hour
Hanz Zimmer - Dunkirk
Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water*
John Williams - Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri