Post-Festival Outlook

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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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You've posted your predictions in the wrong thread, please delete your response and create a new post or post in another existing predictions thread.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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2013 - Michael B. Jordan, Robert Redford, Tom Hanks, Joaquin Phoenix, Chadwick Boseman, Oscar Isaac, Idris Elba.
2014 - Jake Gyllenhall, Ralph Fiennes, Jack O'Connell, David Oyelowo, Joaquin Phoenix, Timothy Spall, Brad Pitt, Robert Downey Jr.
2015 - Tom Hanks, Jake Gyllenhall, Michael Caine, Tom Hiddleston, Bradley Cooper, Will Smith, Steve Carell.
2016 - Joel Edgerton, Nate Parker, Tom Hanks, Will Smith, Michael Keaton, Jake Gyllenhaal, Joe Alwyn
2017 - Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Matt Damon, Joaquin Phoenix, Christian Bale (So far.)

Tom Hanks could end up there for a 4th time.
Last edited by ThePianist on Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Although he's usually the last one I agree with this early in the game, I kind of think Wells has his finger closer to the pulse than most of the prognosticators this year.
If so, that's not great news for Judi Dench.


JEFFREY WELLS...
I saw Stephen Frears‘ Victoria and Adbul (Focus Features, 9.15) at the Toronto Film Festival, but I wasn’t able to summon the energy, much less the enthusiasm, to write about anything about it. Now that I’m back in Los Angeles, rested and settled and sitting at home, I still can’t write about it. Nothing will come. The 68% Rotten Tomatoes rating says it all. It’s not a bad film, but it’s mainly decorous and stiff-necked. Having played Queen Victoria 20 years ago in Mrs. Brown, Judi Dench is her usual mesmerizing self as the same royal in her late 70s, and Ali Fazal is fine as Abdul Karim, the Indian gentleman whom Victoria bonded with during her final years on the throne. I’m sorry but this is just another one of those stuffed-shirt Masterpiece Theatre flicks for the older set. TheWrap‘s Alonso Duralde called it “Buckingham Palace fetishism cranked up to peak mumsy.” Variety‘s Owen Gleiberman called it “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner served with mango chutney.” What do I, Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere, have to say? Overall I found Victoria and Adbul mildly diverting — “entertaining” would be too strong a word — but at the same time I felt like the sand was draining out of my hourglass as I watched it. Me to me: “If Judi Dench is so good in this, and she is….probably another Best Actress nomination in the bag…why do I feel as I’m on my deathbed?”
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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Although he's usually the last one I agree with this early in the game, I kind of think Wells has his finger closer to the pulse than most of the prognosticators this year.

His current predictions: Ronan, Hawkins, McDormand, Dench and Close for Best Actress and Hanks, Day-Lewis, Gyllenhaal, Chalamet, Oldman for Best Actor.

For Best Actress, at this point I think Hawkins, McDormand and Dench are strongly likely with Ronan the most likely of the younger crowd. Close's film has yet to find a distributer. I don't know why they're all counting out Bening whose appeal to fellow actors should be a slam dunk. I do agree with him, though, that this is not a year to bow down to Streep. Winslet, however, remains a question mark that could usurp just about any of them.

For Best Actor, I don't see how you can rule out Streep who has the larger role in her film while making a rote call for Hanks whose luck hasn't been with him in recent years. I think Stanton has a better chance this year. Day-Lewis is still a question mark, as is Jackman who might be the stronger early prediction even if he is playing a charismatic con man in this era of a non-charismatic con man president.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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flipp525 wrote
I'm wondering if the paucity of Best Actor contenders might allow something like James McAvoy in Split to slip through the gate-keepers.
I doubt it. I think every year, we're going to see something like Captain Fantastic sneak in. I think all young writer/directors should start writing vehicles for older actors who have never won an Academy Award. Sam Elliott for 'The Hero.' Why not? Roll the dice.

I'll make this prediction: 'The Greatest Showman' is a big question mark, but consensus will be that Hugh Jackman was much better in 'Logan' and there is more talk about a nomination in that film.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by flipp525 »

I'm wondering if the paucity of Best Actor contenders might allow something like James McAvoy in Split to slip through the gate-keepers.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by Sabin »

Yep. This is always my favorite post of the year. Thanks, Mister Tee.
flipp525 wrote
Something keeps telling me that Best Supporting Actress will be a showdown between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalfe with a dark horse contender no one is discussing seriously yet.
If that is the case, I love it. But do we have confirmation that I, Tonya is being released this year? It would be ridiculous for them not to, but I'd heard conflicting reports.

I'm waiting to see who the female standouts are in 'Phantom Thread' and 'The Post.' Paul Thomas Anderson has guided Julianne Moore and Amy Adams to nominations in this category, but almost as often there have been performances that were talked up ahead of time like Julianne Moore in Magnolia and Katherine Waterston in Inherent Vice that failed to connect. And while nobody has seen 'The Post,' Steven Spielberg is working with Carrie Coons, Allison Brie, and Sarah Paulson. I wouldn't be surprised if any of them turns out to be an Oscar-worthy standout. Or Juno Temple for Woody Allen's 'Wonder Wheel.'

People are predicting Melissa Leo quite a bit. I'm fine shortlisting her despite the fact that this film looks like a Sundance nonstarter and I've never been terribly impressed with her before. But that didn't stop her journey to an Oscar. I think Michelle Pfeiffer is out for 'mother!' As is everyone for 'mother!'

I'm a bit surprised at the hype for Holly Hunter in 'The Big Sick.' I liked it quite a bit but it seemed others were more impressed than me at her performance. The role is plum thought, and it's always great to see her get recognized.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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One of the posts I look forward to all year. Thanks for the distillation, Tee.

I'm glad that Sally Hawkins seems to be on the ascent. I've enjoyed her for years now and I think she was robbed of a nomination for Happy-Go-Lucky.

Something keeps telling me that Best Supporting Actress will be a showdown between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalfe with a dark horse contender no one is discussing seriously yet.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by Mister Tee »

Reza wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:Great post Mister Tee.
Ditto
Great thanks to both of you.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by Reza »

Precious Doll wrote:Great post Mister Tee.
Ditto
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by bizarre »

Honestly, I'm more confused after these festivals than I was before!

Here's my predictions in the main categories - throwing some wildcards in (and out of) there. I'll post elaborated ones later:

Best Picture
"Call Me by Your Name"
"Downsizing"
* "Dunkirk"
"Get Out"
"Lady Bird"
"Last Flag Flying"
"Molly's Game"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"

Best Director
* Guillermo del Toro, for "The Shape of Water"
Luca Guadagnino, for "Call Me by Your Name"
Christopher Nolan, for "Dunkirk"
Aaron Sorkin, for "Molly's Game"
Denis Villeneuve, for "Blade Runner 2049"

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, in "Phantom Thread"
Jake Gyllenhaal, in "Stronger"
* Gary Oldman, in "Darkest Hour"
Harry Dean Stanton, in "Lucky"
Denzel Washington, in "Roman J. Israel, Esq."

Best Actress
* Jessica Chastain, in "Molly's Game"
Sally Hawkins, in "The Shape of Water"
Saoirse Ronan, in "Lady Bird"
Emma Stone, in "Battle of the Sexes"
Daniela Vega, in "A Fantastic Woman"

Best Supporting Actor
Steve Carell, in "Battle of the Sexes"
* Bryan Cranston, in "Last Flag Flying"
Willem Dafoe, in "The Florida Project"
Idris Elba, in "Molly's Game"
Michael Stuhlbarg, in "Call Me by Your Name"

Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, in "Downsizing"
* Allison Janney, in "I, Tonya"
Melissa Leo, in "Novitiate"
Michelle Pfeiffer, in "Mother!"
Allison Williams, in "Get Out"

Best Adapted Screenplay
* "Call Me by Your Name"
"Darkest Hour"
"The Death of Stalin"
"Last Flag Flying"
"Molly's Game"

Best Original Screenplay
"The Big Sick"
"Get Out"
"Lady Bird"
* "The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Best Animated Feature
"The Breadwinner"
* "Coco"
"Ferdinand"
"The Girl Without Hands"
"My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea"

Best Documentary Feature
"Chasing Coral"
* "City of Ghosts"
"Faces, Places"
"Last Men in Aleppo"
"This Is Congo"

Best Foreign-Language Film (making some assumptions about submissions here)
* "BPM (Beats Per Minute)" (France)
"A Fantastic Woman" (Chile)
"Foxtrot" (Israel)
"The Square" (Sweden)
"Wajib" (Palestine)
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

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Great post Mister Tee.
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Re: Post-Festival Outlook

Post by Sabin »

This year, Steve Carell is playing Bobby Riggs AND a grieving father. That seems like a tremendous year. I think his chances are being a little underrated because it doesn't currently feel like he's one of those actors who gets nominated for everything he does. He probably came VERY close with 'The Big Short.' I don't know if 'The Martian' being pushed for Comedy/Musical necessarily cost him a nomination but it might have played some impact because I can't think of anyone else that would've won the Golden Globe. Either way, had he been nominated for 'The Big Short', we'd be talking about for which movie he'd get his third nomination in four years. If not a double nomination depending on what 'Last Flag Flying' exactly is.
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Post-Festival Outlook

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I’d originally thought to delay this traditional festival wrap-up till after NY, but, not only is the start of that festival two weeks off, a main area of interest – Wonder Wheel – is the closing film, meaning we won’t have official word on that till well into October. So, Allen’s film and Last Flag Flying remain unwrapped, as we tot up the results from Venice/Telluride/Toronto.

My general reaction is of being overwhelmed. Last year, it seemed only a few films (if major ones) emerged from the festival roundelay – Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land, Jackie, and the ultimately-minor-impact Nocturnal Animals. It was all very manageable, easy to keep straight in the head. This year, by contrast, there are about a dozen films making one kind of impression or other, including much-hoped-for complete surprises – along with some entries that came in with strong expectations but deflated on contact. Given all this activity, I see the coming months as something of a mess, of a most enjoyable sort.

One overall instinct: 2017 may not be remembered as a year of movies universally agreed-upon as great, but it sure looks to be a year teeming with great performances. Three of the four acting categories, from festival reports, are over-stuffed with candidates – to the point where some of us have already expressed the hope that a film or two is put off till 2018, giving actors who could strongly compete in a less-cutthroat environment a chance that might elude them this year.

To the point of the year maybe not being remembered as yielding great films: in my post previewing Toronto, I noted the strongest candidate on view was Dunkirk, and the strongest by pre-release reputation was Call Me by Your Name. These two remain the most widely-acclaimed films (in Metacritic score), the latter boosted by a Toronto reception in line with what we heard from Sundance. I expect both to be film/director nominees. I also presume The Shape of Water will be strongly in contention, though its Metacritic score is somewhat lower (c. 90, as opposed to the high 90s of the other two); this may be just due to a few spoil-sport critics dragging down the average (Jeff Wells has already set out a vendetta against the film). The failure to win the Toronto Audience Award has AwardsWatchers in a tizzy, but I’d take that as mostly a blip – remembering how I over-reacted to The Artist losing the same award a few years back.

After that, we have a group of titles that received significant critical applause, but whose commercial future is hard to foresee. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird and I, Tonya (the last two from-the-blue entries) seem very strong for acting nods, and the former is at least a possible winner for screenplay…but whether they can go all the way to film/director citations remains in question, and will presumably be affected by what kind of audiences they draw. The win at Toronto for Three Billboards is a VERY good sign. The Florida Project is in similarly strong position: it’s drawn high-praise notices, including from pundits less likely to favor the fringe-y. I remain somewhat skeptical, based on the blogosphere’s wild over-expectation for Tangerine, but this may be a sophomore effort that takes a huge step into the mainstream and brings great rewards.

After that, you have films that got more muted or mixed response, but are seen to have broad enough appeal they might catch voters’ attention. Battle of the Sexes looks like a hit to me – we’ll know in a week or two – and, if it is, I could see it making it onto the list. Darkest Hour is no one’s idea of a great movie – most critical verbiage was spent talking about its lead actor – but its similarity to such earlier nominees as Imitation Game and Theory of Everything (and the lodestone of the genre, The King’s Speech) has got many of the Oscar pundits pushing it for big nominations. A possibility, but I think a more mid-range response could also be its fate. Then there’s Downsizing, which started off like a house afire with the trade reviews, then cooled down with blogger response, to the point the film might now be a tad underrated. Its Metacritic score is the same as Darkest Hour’s, and many seem to feel it has commercial potential, so maybe its chances aren’t as dead as the online Payne-haters think.

(A quick word for the films that were thought to have a chance at best picture a few weeks ago, but were decisively vetoed: Suburbicon, Victoria & Abdul, Roman Israel, Esq., The Current War, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. And, of course, mother!, which probably doesn’t deserve to be grouped with the abject turkeys – it did receive some passionate support – but its distance from the Academy wheelhouse, typified by its F Cinemascore this weekend, keeps it from having any Oscar hopes. Farewell to you all; we appreciate your effort, if not your achievement.)

Remember: in addition to all the films noted above, we have Get Out and The Big Sick already on display, Wonder Wheel and Last Flag Flying to be unveiled at NY, and two year-end big boppers, The Post and the still-Untitled PTA. I’ll also throw in The Snowman, because Alfredson has surprised with thriller material in the past. It sure doesn’t look as if there’ll be any problem rounding up a best picture slate – in fact, it may turn out the most interesting/impressive one since 2013. But it does look like a muddle of a race.

Now, to the performance categories, which, as I say, is where the hottest action is.

Best actress appears to be the bumper crop of bumper crops. Frances McDormand, Jessica Chastain and Saoirse Ronan, multiple nominees all, are getting notices to match their career-best. Sally Hawkins has been highly praised, has an attention-getting role, and is attached to a potential best picture front-runner. Emma Stone has a major role in what looks like a potential Fall hit. Margot Robbie has emerged from nowhere to get the best reviews of her career. Now Glenn Close has shown up and been getting legitimate “this could be her year” notices. If this were a 2014-like vintage, Close might waltz to victory. Hell: half the actresses I’ve noted above might do the same. But it’s not. Plus we still have Kate Winslet to come, in a role that’s getting her huge advance praise, and the inevitable Meryl Streep rolling in at Christmas-time for the Spielberg movie. In another year, Judi Dench or Annette Bening might still be viewed as solid candidates for lower spots on the ballot -- but, given the competition, how do they crash the field? (Sympathies are also offered to Salma Hayek and Daniela Vega, who might have had hopes in a vintage like 2014 or 2009, but are quite unlikely this time around. Though Vega might be just the sort of performer the LA critics get behind.) It of course remains to be seen how the critics will vote, and especially how the dread Broadcasters/Globes/SAG will sort this out – they’ve found ways to remove the juice from many a spirited contest in the past. But, as of today, this looks like an epic battle – the best actress version of supporting actor 1993 – and I hope it stays unresolved a good long time.


Then – sigh – best actor. Sometimes, a baseball team has a huge offensive day but one guy goes 0-for-5, and the announcers say “There’s always one didn’t get invited to the party”. This year, barring huge late reversal, the best actor category looks to be “that guy”. I noted the field was thin heading into the festivals; unhappily, several potential entrants fell well short of hopes, and we’re left with, if anything, an even weaker field than imagined.

Of course, best actor is also the category that has a front-runner. I’ve already expressed how I feel about that way this front-runner was established, and, to judge by this tweet, keen observer Mark Harris feels much the same: https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNYC/statu ... 9567906816 . Oldman is clearly the strongest candidate in sight, and a nomination seems assured. But he feels more like a duty-choice rather than an enthusiastic one. That may be enough to carry him to victory – I’d argue Paul Newman’s Color of Money win was in the same territory – but I think other candidates are likely to emerge somewhere along the line; the three major critics’ groups, for one thing, aren’t likely to rally with the same enthusiasm as the bloggers.

As far as the festivals, though, no one made a mark. Denzel’s Roman Israel, Esq. in fact got some shockingly harsh reactions, and Garfield’s Breathe sits with a scary 50 on Metacritic. Some people are promoting Jake Gyllehaal in Strong, but that film got at best shrugs. Honestly, the lead actor who came off second to Oldman in critical approbation might have been Steve Carell in Battle of the Sexes – imagine a situation where HE got nominated, while the best actress pile-up kept Stone away. The fact that the field appears so weak has some people continuing to push Denzel and Garfield – and, who knows if it might work? Sean Penn/I Am Sam and Will Smith/Ali qualified in a similarly lean year. More likely, though, the wipeout in the category makes it more likely that Timothy Chalamet, despite his youth, can crack the list with Call Me by Your Name, and someone might start seriously thinking, as I suggested earlier, about getting You Were Never Really Here into release so Joaquin Phoenix might have a chance. And, just today, people here have begun discussing Harry Dean Stanton, with the idea his death could propel his low-profile film into the spotlight and grant him a career acknowledgement.

There are, of course, candidates still to be seen, and perhaps we ought to give them all a closer look. Bryan Cranston in Last Flag Flying has a role that did right by Jack Nicholson a long time ago; it remains to be seen if that helps or hurts Cranston (contrast might hurt). Tom Hanks has been taken for granted for most of the past two decades – including the one time he ran close – but maybe this time around The Post will offer an offset to all that. Daniel Day-Lewis is of course always a possibility, though the Untitled PTA sounds a bit kinky for Academy taste. And, since we’re scrounging, let’s consider two guys we might otherwise skip past: Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman, and Michael Fassbender in The Snowman. For that last, we might note that Alfredson’s last film version of a best-selling thriller yielded a best actor nomination.

Now, best supporting actor -- and we’re back to over-populated fields. The best part of the group that’s emerged is, it’s mostly the sort of actors for whom the category was created: veteran character actors, not leading men slumming. There are so many candidates it’s hard to know where to begin. I guess we should start with major best picture contenders. We knew we had Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) coming in, and the film’s strong Toronto reception confirms his spot. Likewise, Willem Dafoe had been on the radar for The Florida Project since Cannes, but the truly exceptional critics’ response pushes him to a higher level. As I say, I’ll still want to see grosses before I go all in on the film, but it appears it might be the real thing. Of the fresh debuts, The Shape of Water gives us, evidently, two strong hopefuls: Michael Shannon (gunning for nomination number three) and Richard Jenkins. The tenor of the reviews makes me guess Jenkins will be the stronger candidate, but, hey, maybe we’ll get a double -- the first in the category since the Bugsy boys in ’91. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri also offers two hopefuls, with long-overdue Sam Rockwell by far the strongest. Molly’s Game offers apparently solid roles for both Idris Elba and Kevin Costner, with the former having the better shot, not least in atonement for his near-miss two years ago. And some are pushing Ben Mendelsohn for his variation on Colin Firth’s Oscar role in Darkest Hour (I’m not sure I see this, but I include it for completeness’ sake). Of course, that’s not the end of the story: up ahead, we can look forward to someone from Last Flag Flying (my guess: Laurence Fishburne) and, according to rumor, Jim Belushi in Wonder Wheel. Plus possible surprises from the few remaining unopened packages. All of which add up to another ferocious competition. (Though, in the category of “the festivals giveth, the festivals taketh away”, I’d have to say this plethora of new contenders should push marginal Dunkirk candidate Mark Rylance’s chances all the way to non-existent.)

Supporting actress went into the festivals with perhaps the strongest seen-candidate, Holly Hunter in The Big Sick. It speaks to the strength of this, another category, that she’s now by no means assured of surviving final cut. The two hottest contenders came from the surprise films: beloved TV icons Allison Janney in I, Tonya and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. Both seem near-certain nominees; a lot of people think Janney could flat out win this in March. A bit further down the ladder, but very promising, is Hong Chau, who got by far the strongest notices for Downsizing. There’ve been a few “is she an ethnic stereotype?” shots (primarily, it seems, from non-Asian pundits), but I don’t think enough to offset the high level of praise; her chances appear excellent. Getting-to-be-perennial Octavia Spencer has what’s said to be a crowd-pleasing role in The Shape of Water, and, if the film, scores heavily, she could easily go along for the ride. Many of the AW-ers are pushing Kristen Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour, partly because they’ve been predicting her all year, but also partly because they view the film as a juggernaut. Since I doubt the latter, I’m cooler on her chances; I put her in much the same category as Andrea Risebrough in Battle of the Sexes, who got good/not great response, but could tag along with a successful commercial run and campaign.

Two people who came into the festivals with some hope -- Mary J. Blige in Mudbound and Melissa Leo in Novitiate – didn’t seem to do much to enhance their prospects. Blige suffered from seeming indifference to Mudbound in general, apparently the victim of Park City over-inflation. As for Leo…I’m not quite sure where her hype comes from. Not from critics: this is its second festival, and only two reviews show on Metacritic (one good, one poor). This may be a case of blogger wish having led to unfounded expectation. (Though Leo is in better shape than Michelle Pfeiffer, who, despite personally good reviews, is gone from the discussion.)

The rest of the year doesn’t offer all that much in specific at this point – there’s some murmur about Juno Temple in Wonder Wheel, but we’ll have to see about that. But remaining films like The Post, The Greatest Showman, The Snowman and Untitled PTA (or, hell, Murder on the Orient Express) could bring an unforeseen candidate into view.

Director of course somewhat lines up with best picture, so the strongest contenders – Dunkirk, Call Me by Your Name, and The Shape of Water – offer the most likely directorial nominees in Nolan, Guadagnino and Del Toro (Guadagnino is this year’s entry in the learn-to-spell-it-right sweepstakes). The hottest newcomers – Martin McDonagh, Sean Baker and Greta Gerwig – also have to be considered. There’s a push for Joe Wright, and, seeing how The Imitation Game scored in that spot, you can’t dismiss the possibility…but I’m inclined to think he could get picture/not director, as he did back in ’07. As I noted last year, you should also consider the directing branch’s tendency to nominate a repeater (last year, they went to the extent of citing Mel Gibson). It happens that many of our strongest unseen contenders offer just that profile – Woody Allen and Steven Spielberg (each going for an 8th nod), Richard Linklater and Paul Thomas Anderson. We have a long way to go to decide this group.

Screenplay breaks out as lopsidedly this year as actor/actress. Start with the thinner/therefore easier field: adapted. Call Me by Your Name is a virtual certainty there (and a chance for James Ivory to win at just short of age 90!). Molly’s Game has been greatly singled-out for its script, and seems likely to get Sorkin another nod (it’s karmic for him to luck into a nomination in the softer category, after being bumped from the tougher one two years ago). You might think Darkest Hour here, but current scuttlebutt is, it qualifies under original. (Given recent chicanery in these categories, I wouldn’t be surprised if that decision changes between now and the nominations.) Battle of the Sexes isn’t any big deal, but if it does solid business, it could slip in. (It’d be no worse than Hidden Figures.) Given the writers’ quirks, it’s here more than anywhere else that specialty items like The Disaster Artist or The Death of Stalin could sneak in (they of course nominated Ianucci last time around). As for the remainder of the year: Last Flag Flying and The Snowman are potential candidates.

Then you get to original, which offers a demolition derby. Even if you assume Dunkirk follows Gravity and The Revenant, missing script because it essentially HAS no script, we came into the festivals with two solid possibilities, The Big Sick and Get Out (the latter has been essentially promised a spot). These past few weeks have added to the mix The Shape of Water; Three Billboards; Lady Bird; The Florida Project; I, Tonya; Darkest Hour if it stays on this side; even Downsizing (given Payne’s reputation). And we know we have Wonder Wheel coming up, written by the patron saint of the category, along with The Post and Untitled PTA following. How does this not end up an historic train-wreck – a year where a film that would be a potential winner many years simply can’t make the finals? It goes without saying, I’m really looking forward to seeing such a broad array of apparently interesting work.

I won’t say much about below-the-line categories because 1) this has already got pretty-long-winded and 2) festivals aren’t generally dominated by tech contenders. Let’s just point out that The Shape of Water has a decent chance of competing widely (cinematography, design, editing, score); that Darkest Hour will likely turn up in design/costumes/make-up; that Victoria & Abdul will be a hot prospect for costumes without doubt; and that Sara Bareilles has a song attached to Battle of the Sexes, which might be that film’s best chance of scoring a nomination.

Okay: I’ll stop now, and allow all to chime in with agreements or hoots of derision.
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