Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[Sabin]

Mark Rylance will not be nominated.

[ThePianist]

Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

Have no clue why people keep predicting this. It just seems like people are really high on Dunkirk as of now because the film just came out, and Rylance won an Oscar recently. Predicting acting nominees for a film that isn't really dialogue heavy is kind of a stretch, especially if it's for a film that comes out early in the year.

[ThePianist]

James Ivory has suddenly made a re-emergence at the age of 89 as producer and screenwriter of Call Me By Your Name.

Wonder if this film will finally win him an Oscar.

He probably will. Like others have said, even If the film doesn't win Best Picture, he'll definitely win for Adapted Screenplay.

[bizarre]

Current predictions

BEST PICTURE
Blade Runner 2049
Breathe
Call Me by Your Name
Downsizing
* Dunkirk
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
Mother!
Roman Israel, Esq.

BEST DIRECTOR
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)
* Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
* Claire Foy (Breathe)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Colin Farrell (Roman Israel, Esq.)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
* Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Allison Williams (Get Out)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Annihilation
* Call Me by Your Name
The Death of Stalin
Last Flag Flying
Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Detroit
* Downsizing
Get Out
Roman Israel, Esq.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Breadwinner
* Coco
Ethel & Ernest
Ferdinand
In This Corner of the World

TBD:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Annihilation
* Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Wonderstruck

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Beguiled
The Greatest Showman
* Murder on the Orient Express
My Cousin Rachel
Phantom Thread

BEST FILM EDITING
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Downsizing
* Dunkirk
Get Out

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
* The Shape of Water

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
* Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Beauty and the Beast
Call Me by Your Name
* Ferdinand
The Greatest Showman
The Star

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Annihilation
* Blade Runner 2049
Downsizing
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonderstruck

BEST SOUND EDITING
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
* Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
* Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
* Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

[bizarre]

'A Fantastic Woman' is also appearing at Toronto in the 'Special presentations' area no less, so Daniella Vega isn't out of the water yet. But, along with the outstanding buzz Claire Foy has been getting from 'The Crown', and the fact that she nominated for an Emmy for that, AND the fact that she's a young actress that's looking to break out; If she's put up for leading, the cards could definitely line up for her. She might be giving Vega a run for her money if she isn't relegated to supporting. But if that's the case, I'm not too confident in Garfield winning lead actor as well. 2011 was the last time an Actor AND an Actress Won in either category for the same film, and before that It happened in 2005. So it could happen again, but It probably won't be in 2018.

As for Annette Bening, I'm a huge fan of her, and I hope she does turn out to be a huge contender. But looking at the statistics, It doesn't look very likely. First off, just because SPC bought the film and gave it an awards season release date, doesn't mean It's automatically going to guarantee Bening a spot. Secondly, and more importantly; Paul McGuigan's films have been nothing but totally schlock. So the film itself is probably going to fall flat on it's face too hard to garner her a nomination.

I'm not sold on Bening yet but SPC's pickup is a good sign. I agree on the schlock front - I think this year is too stacked even for something like a Still Alice showcase for a Oscarless vet (or a My Week with Marilyn/Being Julia thing, this seems to be in the same vein) to secure a nomination in this category. But she's high profile right now what with the Venice jury presidency on her agenda too. I've been really hesitant to predict Winslet mainly - this is my problem - because I don't want to (and I think it'll be harder for voters - esp. under the new membership - to separate Allen from an Allen film or an Allen-directed performance this year vs. 2013), but it sounds like this is definitely a Blue Jasmine-style character piece with a lot of Acting opportunities for her. I truly think Vega is going to be lost in the mix, which is a shame because I'd love to see her get a nomination, sight unseen, just for the historic value of it.

I'm predicting Foy to win and will happily change that at a moment's notice. I think she and Garfield are stronger competition for noms than the consensus decrees right now, but regardless of what happens with her I think Garfield will find Oldman, Day-Lewis and Washington hard to beat even if on paper he'd fit the classical mold of a winner.

[Big Magilla]

Having watched the trailer for Suburbicon, written by the Coen Bros. and directed George Clooney, I'm wondering if this might be Matt Damon's better shot at a Best Actor nomination than Downsizing.

[Reza]

James Ivory has suddenly made a re-emergence at the age of 89 as producer and screenwriter of Call Me By Your Name.

Wonder if this film will finally win him an Oscar.

[ThePianist]

This benefits Claire Foy more than anyone right now what with Saoirse Ronan's film in the ether and Margot Robbie's films looking like bubble contenders at best.

'A Fantastic Woman' is also appearing at Toronto in the 'Special presentations' area no less, so Daniella Vega isn't out of the water yet. But, along with the outstanding buzz Claire Foy has been getting from 'The Crown', and the fact that she nominated for an Emmy for that, AND the fact that she's a young actress that's looking to break out; If she's put up for leading, the cards could definitely line up for her. She might be giving Vega a run for her money if she isn't relegated to supporting. But if that's the case, I'm not too confident in Garfield winning lead actor as well. 2011 was the last time an Actor AND an Actress Won in either category for the same film, and before that It happened in 2005. So it could happen again, but It probably won't be in 2018.

As for Annette Bening, I'm a huge fan of her, and I hope she does turn out to be a huge contender. But looking at the statistics, It doesn't look very likely. First off, just because SPC bought the film and gave it an awards season release date, doesn't mean It's automatically going to guarantee Bening a spot. Secondly, and more importantly; Paul McGuigan's films have been nothing but totally schlock. So the film itself is probably going to fall flat on it's face too hard to garner her a nomination.

[bizarre]

Honestly I think we talk so much about the back catalogues of Oscar history here that it shapes the forum's view of modern races - a sentimental Dench win in lead is something that could have easily happened if you transplanted her Oscars trajectory to, say, the 60s, but with recent trends, voting patterns and other contextual factors a Dench win is hardly a shoo-in, though she will most likely (? with Bening, Streep and Winslet, maybe even Portman as spoilers this race is getting stacked with meatier, less-fluffy actors' vehicles and default-dench may not be a foregone conclusion) net a nomination.

Sentimental-veteran nominations and wins are much easier to pull off for men these days, too. And recent history runs towards late-90s/early-2000s ingenue-coronation narratives (Lawrence, Larson, Stone, Vikander - though supporting actress seems to be reverting to its historical character-actress basis). This benefits Claire Foy more than anyone right now what with Saoirse Ronan's film in the ether and Margot Robbie's films looking like bubble contenders at best.

[The Original BJ]

I wonder if Annette Bening might end up like Leonardo DiCaprio at some point -- though whether that some point is this year or another remains to be seen.

Leo was also in a position where he had been nominated four times, won a couple Globes, and was vaguely considered "overdue," despite the fact that he never once really seemed in contention to actually win an Oscar. Then The Revenant came along and IT'S TIME set in as the overwhelming narrative, with the Internet cheering section leading the way, and he won the Oscar in a walk.

Like Leo, I don't find Bening as criminally overdue as some of her loudest partisans -- I'd have voted for her in 2010, but saw no reason to object to Portman's equally strong work taking the prize -- but I think she's come closer to winning than he did before his Oscar. I was a fairly young Oscar-watcher at the time, but I remember a lot of people betting on Bening/American Beauty -- Entertainment Weekly, for one, but also Roger Ebert. (It's worth noting that Warren Beatty was receiving the Thalberg that night, and plenty of people bought into a "his and hers" narrative for Beatty & Bening.) I thought Swank would pull it out, simply because I thought the performance was so sensational, but remember being on pins and needles up until the winner was announced.

And though most people bet heavily on Swank '04 and Portman in Bening's later races, I agree with Sabin that there was a point after her movies opened when it seemed like she could be a conceivable winner. (I remember a film professor of mine telling our class that Bening had the Oscar in the bag the week after he saw Being Julia.)

All of this is to say, while I'm not sure the Academy thinks it's some great injustice that Bening is lacking an Oscar, overdue narratives have a way of seeming inevitable once the right performance/circumstances come along.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I didn't see Bening's work until after the Oscars last year, so I had no opinion of her work in either 20th Century Women or Rules Don't Apply, but I did see both after the Oscars and didn't feel either should have been nominated. The film that I did see post-Oscars in which I thought that both the lead and main supporting actress were both robbed of Oscar nominations was The Dressmaker. I thought this was the best work both Kate Winslet and Judy Davis had done to date.

Had 20th Century Women been released in a weaker year for lead actresses, like 2014 or 2013 or 2012 or 2011, I think she could have been nominated easily.

Mister Tee wrote
I have to question much of this take.

Maybe "presumed front-runner" is the wrong language, but sure...

Mister Tee wrote
1990: Whoopi Goldberg was probably a runaway winner, but if anyone got close, it was likely Bracco or McDonnell, from the prime best picture contenders.

I said she'd been the presumed front-runner three times. 1990 is not one of them.

Mister Tee wrote
1999: Bening was carried along to a nomination by best picture fervor (in a year so thin that Janet McTeer and Meryl Streep got throw-in nods). But she wasn't in the conversation for the win until the SAG awards -- prior to that, Swank had won the important critics' citations and the Globe. And that was back in the pre-screener era, when low-grossing nominees frequently lost SAG to people from more broadly popular films but still went on to win the Oscar (see: 1995/Kate Winslet over MIra Sorvino; 2001: Ian McKellen over Jim Broadbent; 2002: Christopher Walken over Chris Cooper). I think Swank was an easy winner that year, and I even have some evidence: that was the year The Wall Street Journal polled members, and got every category correct except best actor (which they'd given to Denzel, but described it as the closest/margin of error race). They had Swank winning by a 2-1 margin, the widest of any category.

I didn't remember that the WSJ polling came in so close. That's probably because I figured it was a better idea to look at the precursors and make my own opinions from there. I remember predicting Hillary Swank in 1999 and feeling like I was going out on a limb. The Screen Actor's Guild went 4/5 that year and Entertainment Weekly put Annette Bening at 3/2 and Swank at 5/2. Hillary Swank's win that evening was the sweetest of the night, but I recall that night feeling like they were even with each other at best and I don't remember feeling like I was alone on that one. Nor do I remember thinking that Annette Bening was being "carried" along to a nomination by Best Picture fervor. Perhaps earlier in the race when people were buzzing about Sigourney Weaver's first win for A Map of the World.

Mister Tee wrote
2004: The idea that Bening even ran second this time around strikes me as ridiculous. Imelda Staunton swept the serious critics and (unsurprisingly) won BAFTA; I'd be shocked if she didn't place, and, given Kate Winslet was on her fourth nomination in 10 years, and that Eternal Sunshine won a screenplay award, I think it's entirely possible Bening ran 4th for that utter trifle.

Fair. I'll say that she was being spoken of as a possible winner quite early in the season. Before people knew Million Dollar Baby existed. She won a Golden Globe and a National Board of Review award. Regardless, the talk was there perhaps more than love for the film itself, the notion that had Boys Don't Cry been released any other year then Annette Bening would have won. I think this is where the narrative began.

Mister Tee wrote
2010: This is the one time Bening was legitimately well-positioned to win -- she even took the NY critics award over a strong field. But despite that serious endorsement, the season seemed to go Portman's way without effort...again calling into question how desperate anyone outside of the Oscar-blogger bubble is to see Bening be a winner.

Again, I think you have to take into consideration the timeline of the race. I think you're talking about when the race truly begins at the start of the year, whereas I'm talking about people who dedicate half their year to tracking the films and performances that could factor in. When The Kids Are All Right was released in the summer of that year, it was warmly received. Remember when Roger Ebert wrote that Almost Famous was a movie that made him feel like hugging himself? Those are the kinds of reviews it got and Annette Bening's performance was at the center of it. It wasn't until later in the year when Black Swan landed that Natalie Portman stuck the landing and positioned herself as the unquestioned front-runner. But from the minute The Kids Are All Right came out until December, I thought Annette Bening would win, and it had nothing to do with her status as being due. It came from the fact that she was great, she was doing something different, and she was in a film that seemed (at the time) beloved.

Mister Tee wrote
And then you had last year, where I thought she gave a genuinely deserving performance, but she was shunted aside in favor of Ruth Negga and Meryl Streep. Amy Adams being left off means people don't really care about her, but Bening being omitted means she's primed to win?

...No.

Mister Tee wrote
A counter-stance to all of this is, Bening has been an Academy board member, and seems to have some popularity within the industry, which you'd expect some day to help her in a race. But I just haven't seen it matter for her so far.

And I think it's different. I think she's just had some shitty luck. I'll modify my earlier stance. Twice she's given performances that absolutely could have won her an Oscar. And then the Oscar race took a different shape.

[OscarGuy]

Bening's performance in 20th Century Women was the best she's ever given and the first time I've felt she gave a performance that wasn't systematically controlled. It was natural and flowing (some minor calculations were there, but this was her most effortless).

[Big Magilla]

The Oscar boards went nuts over the Hilary Swank-Annette Bening rivalry in 1999 and 2004. Whether it was real or manufactured I don't know, but I thought Swank would win easily on both occasions. I also expected Bening to lose to Natalie Portman at the 2010 awards, although Bening was my personal choice. Portman was my choice last year.

I didn't see Bening's work until after the Oscars last year, so I had no opinion of her work in either 20th Century Women or Rules Don't Apply, but I did see both after the Oscars and didn't feel either should have been nominated. The film that I did see post-Oscars in which I thought that both the lead and main supporting actress were both robbed of Oscar nominations was The Dressmaker. I thought this was the best work both Kate Winslet and Judy Davis had done to date.

[Mister Tee]

How do you mean? The bulk of her nominations (The Grifters, American Beauty, Being Julia) are for playing exaggerated women in terms of borderline caricature (not an insult) or larger than life glamour figures. And a time where she probably came close to a nomination was The American President (where she likely went from front-runner to also-rank as the box office receipts came in) she played rom-com leading lady. I'm not saying she's the world's best actress, but when I think of Annette Bening I don't think of earth mothers, I think of castrating bitches like in American Beauty.

But I listed this quote first for one reason: this is how the Academy looks at whether or not someone is deserving of a win. Not how many nominations they pick up overall, but whether they matter. This is probably Amy Adams' hurdle. Annette Bening has only FOUR nominations and I don't think a day goes by where some message board like ours doesn't scream her name in incantation. It's because she was the presumed front-runner three times. It's because she was the predicted winner in a Best Picture winner once. And it's because she lost to significantly younger actors, one of them twice! Academy members care about that. They don't care about honoring a full circle to Judi Dench's career.

I have to question much of this take.

It's true that some Oscar boards -- starting with and especially Nathaniel/Film Experience -- are incensed that Bening is to-date Oscar-less. But I think that was their creation, not something that reflects Academy belief.

I seriously dispute the idea that Bening was the presumed front-runner three times, or ever the predicted winner. Here's her history:

1990: Whoopi Goldberg was probably a runaway winner, but if anyone got close, it was likely Bracco or McDonnell, from the prime best picture contenders.

1999: Bening was carried along to a nomination by best picture fervor (in a year so thin that Janet McTeer and Meryl Streep got throw-in nods). But she wasn't in the conversation for the win until the SAG awards -- prior to that, Swank had won the important critics' citations and the Globe. And that was back in the pre-screener era, when low-grossing nominees frequently lost SAG to people from more broadly popular films but still went on to win the Oscar (see: 1995/Kate Winslet over MIra Sorvino; 2001: Ian McKellen over Jim Broadbent; 2002: Christopher Walken over Chris Cooper). I think Swank was an easy winner that year, and I even have some evidence: that was the year The Wall Street Journal polled members, and got every category correct except best actor (which they'd given to Denzel, but described it as the closest/margin of error race). They had Swank winning by a 2-1 margin, the widest of any category.

2004: The idea that Bening even ran second this time around strikes me as ridiculous. Imelda Staunton swept the serious critics and (unsurprisingly) won BAFTA; I'd be shocked if she didn't place, and, given Kate Winslet was on her fourth nomination in 10 years, and that Eternal Sunshine won a screenplay award, I think it's entirely possible Bening ran 4th for that utter trifle.

2010: This is the one time Bening was legitimately well-positioned to win -- she even took the NY critics award over a strong field. But despite that serious endorsement, the season seemed to go Portman's way without effort...again calling into question how desperate anyone outside of the Oscar-blogger bubble is to see Bening be a winner.

And then you had last year, where I thought she gave a genuinely deserving performance, but she was shunted aside in favor of Ruth Negga and Meryl Streep. Amy Adams being left off means people don't really care about her, but Bening being omitted means she's primed to win?

(Side issue: I think Amy Adams is, despite her raft of nods, generally underrated by these same Oscar bloggers -- that same Nathaniel seems to think she's barely deserved any of her nominations. An issue for another day.)

A counter-stance to all of this is, Bening has been an Academy board member, and seems to have some popularity within the industry, which you'd expect some day to help her in a race. But I just haven't seen it matter for her so far.

[Sabin]

First off, glad we're posting again.

Precious Doll wrote
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Sabin, I've read the book and I couldn't imagine a better title) is based on the 1987 autobiography by Peter Turner who had had an affair with Gloria Grahame years earlier. As I said I have read the book and it was back when it was first published. At the time, and I still do, think it could make a great film in the right hands. I don't think this will be it. Firstly, the book moves back and forth from the last days of Graham's life to her life in the 1950s. I have a feeling the film will cover the later years only. Really don't know if Annette Bening can pull it off. She's fine playing L.A. earth mothers but beyond that she is a rather limited actress.

How do you mean? The bulk of her nominations (The Grifters, American Beauty, Being Julia) are for playing exaggerated women in terms of borderline caricature (not an insult) or larger than life glamour figures. And a time where she probably came close to a nomination was The American President (where she likely went from front-runner to also-rank as the box office receipts came in) she played rom-com leading lady. I'm not saying she's the world's best actress, but when I think of Annette Bening I don't think of earth mothers, I think of castrating bitches like in American Beauty.

But I listed this quote first for one reason: this is how the Academy looks at whether or not someone is deserving of a win. Not how many nominations they pick up overall, but whether they matter. This is probably Amy Adams' hurdle. Annette Bening has only FOUR nominations and I don't think a day goes by where some message board like ours doesn't scream her name in incantation. It's because she was the presumed front-runner three times. It's because she was the predicted winner in a Best Picture winner once. And it's because she lost to significantly younger actors, one of them twice! Academy members care about that. They don't care about honoring a full circle to Judi Dench's career.

US: "She's coming full circle! She's finally playing Queen Victoria again."
ACADEMY VOTERS: "Hasn't she been doing that for twenty years?"

Mister Tee wrote
I think Sabin makes a fair point, that the political climate for a Woody Allen effort would be even harsher than it was just for years ago. But we're talking about a film that looks poised to get a critical boost: in addition to the Wells rumor, there's the fact of the film being chosen to close the NY Film Festival, and that the studio is opening it in December -- the first Woody with such a slot since, I don't know, September? If Winslet gives a performance that grabs the critics the way Blanchett's did, a bunch of nasty posts on Jezebel may not be enough to hobble her.

It won't be Jezebel. It will be a Buzzfeed investigation.

Topless activists stormed a Woody Allen concert in Germany this past month with Dylan Farrow's letter to the NYT painted on their bodies. I know Kathy Griffin is something of a joke now, but read this and tell me this is a man who is desperately careful about what he says:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kat ... 512f8274e3

I think if Casey Affleck can survive something he possibly did, then Kate Winslet can survive something that somebody else did, but increasingly actors are being asked "Why are working with this man?" and they never have a good answer.

Precious Doll wrote
One of the other things I think is going against Kate Winslet is she won her first Oscar for such an undeserved performance and film. She's still young and there is plenty of time for other chances.

I think it works in her favor that she won for an undeserved performance. Nobody thinks like us in the Academy.

criddic3 wrote
Kate Winslet is 41. By Hollywood standards that's not so young. Unless she continues getting solid roles like Meryl Streep, her chances of winning a second lead Oscar are going to become scarce.

Kate Winslet is forty-one and has seven nominations. By the time, Meryl Streep was forty-one, she had eight. We're talking about a comparable career. The question isn't when does she win her second Oscar, but her third. Do you realize that Kate Winslet holds the record for youngest person to receive six nominations? She already has a comparable career. By the time she's sixty, she will get every single role offered to women over sixty.