Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[bizarre]

The initially rumoured plot regarding Phantom Thread/Untitled PTA Project has started to make the rounds again among industry insiders on Twitter - that being that the film isn't about Charles James after all but rather about a misogynistic fashion designer who becomes involved in a sadomasochistic sexual relationship with a fashion model, she the domme he the sub. If this is the case Vicky Krieps is jumping back up in my Supporting Actress rankings, and I wonder if she could be pushed for lead.

[Sabin]

Garfield is a very good actor. I thought he was better in Silence than Hacksaw Ridge but he's been on the bubble for a nomination for some time. He could certainly get nominated but it seems like he has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth.

[OscarGuy]

I thought Garfield was impressive in Never Let Me Go. He's also the best Peter Parker/Spider-Man they've had (not that it's any indication of his acting ability).

[Sabin]

Just saw the trailer for Breathe. Looks very similar to The Theory of Everything...which is to say unbearable. Working in its favor is the fact that the story seems to be about more than his survival and their love but also advocacy. I'm sure both Andrew Garfield and Claire Foy will be at least in the conversation for a nomination.

Perhaps working even more in the film's favor is Director Andy Serkis. He is going to be very visible this fall because: 1) this is his directorial debut, 2) he's directing the fucking Jungle Book sequel next year, 3) he's in Star Wars, and 4) there are rumblings that he deserves a special achievement award for his work in the Planet of the Apes series (among others) and perhaps this will go nowhere but he at least gets to respond to it. That's a big jump from "What was it like to do Gollum?" Andy Serkis is a big success story.

[flipp525]

Wasn't he, Okri? I was seriously impressed and now I think Andrew Garfield might just be one of the great young actors of this new generation. I was excited about him after The Social Network some years ago, but I now see him in a totally new light. I was also very shocked by how good James McCardle was in the role of Louis. Thought he was just phenomenal. And I really loved the actress playing Hannah Pitt. Such a good production of Kushner's classsic.

I'm excited to see Follies at the National this December with Imelda Staunton as Sally.

[Okri]

Magilla, weren't you predicting that all three Briony actresses might place in Best Supporting Actress that year for Atonement? I seem to recall that.

Some scattered thoughts:

Andrew Garfield's performance as Prior in the National Theatre's production of "Angels in America" (a part I happen to have played in college) was absolutely stunning. I'm not sure what that adds to Breathe buzz but I know people are discussing his work in it and how it highlights his versatility.

That mother! trailer is insane. Wow.

I'm very curious to see how they do the infamous peach scene from the book in Call Me By Your Name. Also, I can see SAGs nominating Armie Hammer and the Academy nominating Stulburg. Or something bizarre like the SAGs tend to do.

There's something very comforting to me, in these scary times, that Magilla has settled on his old woman du jour for this year's Best Actress race. In another year (and another time), it would have annoyed me.

a) Not sure if Magilla did, but I definitely did.

b) I saw it in London. A two-show day. Standing Room only (so yes, I stood for 7+ hours). Garfield was staggeringly good.

[Precious Doll]

I'm very curious to see how they do the infamous peach scene from the book in Call Me By Your Name. Also, I can see SAGs nominating Armie Hammer and the Academy nominating Stulburg. Or something bizarre like the SAGs tend to do.

Haven't read the book myself, but in the film intensity followed by playfulness.

[Big Magilla]

Magilla, weren't you predicting that all three Briony actresses might place in Best Supporting Actress that year for Atonement? I seem to recall that.

I may have at some point, but I ended up nominating two of them (Ronan and Redgrave) for my own awards. My predicted winner as well as my personal choice was Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone.

I'm not sure what qualifies for "old" anymore, but these things go in cycles. We've had enough bland younger actresses winning lately. It's time for an old pro, one in her 50s or older, to win again. If not Dench, then Bening, with Winslet, McDormand and Streep securing the other nominations over whoever the most hyped younger actress of the year turns out to be.

[flipp525]

Magilla, weren't you predicting that all three Briony actresses might place in Best Supporting Actress that year for Atonement? I seem to recall that.

Some scattered thoughts:

Andrew Garfield's performance as Prior in the National Theatre's production of "Angels in America" (a part I happen to have played in college) was absolutely stunning. I'm not sure what that adds to Breathe buzz but I know people are discussing his work in it and how it highlights his versatility.

That mother! trailer is insane. Wow.

I'm very curious to see how they do the infamous peach scene from the book in Call Me By Your Name. Also, I can see SAGs nominating Armie Hammer and the Academy nominating Stulburg. Or something bizarre like the SAGs tend to do.

There's something very comforting to me, in these scary times, that Magilla has settled on his old woman du jour for this year's Best Actress race. In another year (and another time), it would have annoyed me.

[Big Magilla]

According to Jeffrey Wells, Bruce Dern is very good in Chappaquiddick and is a strong Best Supporting Actor contender.

Never say never, but, in a time when Trump is laying waste to the country, I have to question how many'll be in the mood for "You know, Ted Kennedy did bad things, too".

I concur, besides which Joe Kennedy was pretty much in a vegetative state at the time of the Chappaquiddick incident in July, 1969. He died the following November, having never fully recovered from his December, 1961 stroke. What exactly does Dern as the dying elder Kennedy do in the film?

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Never say never, but, in a time when Trump is laying waste to the country, I have to question how many'll be in the mood for "You know, Ted Kennedy did bad things, too".

I think they'll absolutely be in the mood for it because you can make the argument that this is a story worth telling. It has a reason to exist. Audiences are engaged politically and it would seem to be about privilege which is a conversation that is engulfing a lot of people right now. I think it's release couldn't be more timely...at least if any good.

[Mister Tee]

According to Jeffrey Wells, Bruce Dern is very good in Chappaquiddick and is a strong Best Supporting Actor contender.

Never say never, but, in a time when Trump is laying waste to the country, I have to question how many'll be in the mood for "You know, Ted Kennedy did bad things, too".

[Sabin]

According to Jeffrey Wells, Bruce Dern is very good in Chappaquiddick and is a strong Best Supporting Actor contender.

[Bog]

Two possibilities for Focus' play: 1) they, like me, hadn't realized this shift was now a permanent part of the landscape; 2) they hadn't expected Eternal Sunshine to do as well as it did with critics/audiences, so hadn't seen it as prime Oscar fodder to begin with.

Sorry I'm pretty late to this party...going back down half a page. I've always been grateful, similar to Tee, that such a film was in the theater in what was it, February? Especially this film...still one of my all time favorites and holds up extremely well upon repeat viewings. I think of Tee's 2 options...the former is definitely something I think came upon them quickly but number 2 is the ding ding ding. Oddly there should have been no reason for trepidation...starring massive stars at the top including the star of the 5th highest grossing film from just a few months prior, a really solid acclaimed supporting cast of Ruffalo and Wilkinson as well as Frodo and Mary Jane.

I'd bet it all comes down to the brass saying "you sonofabitch...you gave this to the Human Nature guy and not the Malkovich/Adaptation guy? How many music videos does Jack Black need? We coulda had something BIG here...damn you!...kick this to February...better luck next time"

[bizarre]

Annihilation has been officially marked for a 2018 release apparently so talk of it being pushed up has been nipped in the bud.

A lot of pundits are excited about The Shape of Water - wonder if it'll make an impact. I'm not entirely sold yet. Same people are falling off the Blade Runner 2049 train.

Looks like Darkest Hour will make a play in Adapted by publishing the book it's "based on" around the time of its actual release. Sneaky!

Playing with the following prediction ideas:
Actor - Day-Lewis/Elliott/Garfeld/Oldman/Washington (alt - Timothée Chalamet)
Actress - Dench/Foy/Lawrence/Stone/Winslet (alt - Sally Hawkins)
Supporting Actor - Buscemi/Cranston/Dafoe/Isaac/Stuhlbarg (alt - Doug Jones)
Supporting Actress - Chau/Janney/Leo/Pfeiffer/Scott Thomas (alt - Holly Hunter)