Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[OscarGuy]

Who knew that Chocolat would go from being a mediocrely reviewed film to a Best Picture nominee. Sometimes, thinking we know everything is worse than thinking we no nothing.

[Mister Tee]

So what exactly am I being declarative about? I'm just making predictions. Seems rather foolish to wait until It's released in theaters, JUST to be SURE. That's rarely the case for these kinds of things mate.

Yeah -- like we all knew La La Land had best picture nailed in September.

[ThePianist]

Garfield's film is already getting mega-panned as a cold, and lifeless 'Theory of Everything', (check out TIFF reviews.) And 'Roman J. Israel, Esq.' is getting mixed/negative reviews, while mostly praising Washington. Plus, If there's no-one else but Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis, and Hanks; I can see Gyllenhaal getting in, especially with the reviews he's been getting.

So what exactly am I being declarative about? I'm just making predictions. Seems rather foolish to wait until It's released in theaters, JUST to be SURE. That's rarely the case for these kinds of things mate.

[flipp525]

I think you're speaking entirely too declaratively for this point in the race.

[ThePianist]

I suppose we should wait until BFI LFF and NYFF for any reassurance, but IS CRANSTON LEADING OR SUPPORTING? This category is getting pretty tight; with Garfield out of the race, and Denzel potentially flopping. Gyllenhaal seems like a safe bet for a nom; with the raves his film and his performance has gotten so far. And I don't know what to make of Tom Hanks, we have to wait even longer for that one.

[Big Magilla]

A friend of mine in the business tells me it doesn't matter how big an idiot I think Wells is as long as I give him clicks, and that's true. But I can't not look at what the guy's doing; he's such a psychological train-wreck.

Nothing he has had to say lately has shocked me, but that picture of Eric Clapton looking like Steve Bannon threw me.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
So, to be clear, you are citing a Jeffrey Wells quote in the first sentence and then quoting a Jeffrey Wells article in the paragraph below.

"Jeffrey Wells supports a Dench nominations, also is so impressed with the film 'Disobedience' that he's not even going to be able to use the phrase 'hot lesbo action' in review."

Something like that.

[Mister Tee]

Wells is running REALLY apart from the pack this year -- doesn't like The Shape of Water, thinks more highly of Bening and Dench than Chastain, Stone or Hawkins. Which is going to make it fun when the season gets seriously in gear, because Wells always attributes dastardly motives to anyone who doesn't share his particular tastes. The further he gets from consensus, the fiercer he's going to smear.

A friend of mine in the business tells me it doesn't matter how big an idiot I think Wells is as long as I give him clicks, and that's true. But I can't not look at what the guy's doing; he's such a psychological train-wreck.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Limited gnashing, maybe, but hardly widespread. Even Jeffrey Wells supports a Dench nomination:

Among the films I’ve seen but haven’t written about: Chappaquiddick (first-rate…saw this morning, review half-written), The Florida Project (excellent! Oscar-quality), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand acting honors, surprising story — more about forgiveness than revenge), Victoria and Abdul (Judi Dench definitely one of five Best Actress nominees), Disobedience (so well-made and full of feeling that I’m not even going to use the phrase ‘hot lesbo action,’ although it does have that), The Mountain Between Us (not bad but nowhere near Touching The Void…slowish, talky) and Battle of the Sexes (I tapped out a reaction or two during Telluride, but haven’t found time to write the requisite four or five graphs.

So, to be clear, you are citing a Jeffrey Wells quote in the first sentence and then quoting a Jeffrey Wells article in the paragraph below.

"Jeffrey Wells supports a Dench nominations, also is so impressed with the film 'Disobedience' that he's not even going to be able to use the phrase 'hot lesbo action' in review."

[Big Magilla]

Best Actress
BATTLE OF THE SEXES / Emma Stone
LADY BIRD / Saoirse Ronan
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBINGS, MISSOURI / Frances McDormand
WONDER WHEEL / Kate Winslet

MISSING OUT
BREATHE / Claire Foy
A FANTASTIC WOMAN / Daniela Vega
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL / Annette Bening
MOLLY'S GAME / Jessica Chastain
MOTHER! / Jennifer Lawrence
THE POST / Meryl Streep

I can't seriously quarrel with your chosen five, but at the same time I can't imagine Jessica Chastain being passed over, given the emphatic nature of the raves she's getting. And then there's Margot Robbie...

If Dench or a mid-range Streep get in over any of these candidates, there'll be widespread gnashing of teeth.

Limited gnashing, maybe, but hardly widespread. Even Jeffrey Wells supports a Dench nomination:

Among the films I’ve seen but haven’t written about: Chappaquiddick (first-rate…saw this morning, review half-written), The Florida Project (excellent! Oscar-quality), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand acting honors, surprising story — more about forgiveness than revenge), Victoria and Abdul (Judi Dench definitely one of five Best Actress nominees), Disobedience (so well-made and full of feeling that I’m not even going to use the phrase ‘hot lesbo action,’ although it does have that), The Mountain Between Us (not bad but nowhere near Touching The Void…slowish, talky) and Battle of the Sexes (I tapped out a reaction or two during Telluride, but haven’t found time to write the requisite four or five graphs.

[ThePianist]

Reviews for 'Roman J. Israel, Esq' so far have been slightly positive/mixed, whilst praising Washington's performance. This might have convinced me to boot Washington back down again. I always knew his reputation alone wouldn't result in an Oscar Nomination.

Denzel Washington for 'Roman Israel, Esq' IS NOT GOING TO GET NOMINATED.

Someone had to say it.

(And If he does make it, then the SAG and BAFTA won't touch him; Globe + OSCAR Noms only.)

Also, Sorry Bizarre. But Sam Elliot is not happening either.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

UPDATED BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour (WINNER)
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

FIFTH SLOT:
Tom Hanks - The Papers
(Everyone who's 'supposedly' read the script, has mentioned that Streep has the 'baiter' role. Plus; not being nominated in several years.)
Christian Bale - Hostiles (Needs Distribution)
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying
(Potential Out-of-Nowhere Contender that shocks everyone, just needs BFI LFF and NYFF buzz.)
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Obvious reasons for being at the bottom.)

Andrew Garfield - Breathe (OUT)
Donald Sutherland - The Leisure Seeker (OUT)

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I can't seriously quarrel with your chosen five, but at the same time I can't imagine Jessica Chastain being passed over, given the emphatic nature of the raves she's getting. And then there's Margot Robbie...

If Dench or a mid-range Streep get in over any of these candidates, there'll be widespread gnashing of teeth.

I mean, she missed for A Most Violent Year and Miss Sloane. The reviews she's getting seem to be better, but maybe that's the part of me that finds her to be a wildly erratic performer talking.

I've read some questioning over whether I, Tonya will be released this year but I see that this morning it was indeed picked up. Which means that Margot Robbie and Allison Janney will likely be factoring into the race in some capacity.

Wow, if the lineup for Best Actress is Jessica Chastain, Saoirse Ronan, Sally Hawkins, Kate Winslet, Margot Robbie and/or Emma Stone, it will be the biggest showing of the new guard in ages.

[danfrank]

Best Actress
BATTLE OF THE SEXES / Emma Stone
LADY BIRD / Saoirse Ronan
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBINGS, MISSOURI / Frances McDormand
WONDER WHEEL / Kate Winslet

Those are exactly my predictions at this point as well. Of course the Winslet prediction is based on buzz alone, and we'll have to wait and see. I just saw A Quiet Passion and, as Precious Doll has pointed out, Cynthia Nixon was phenomenally good and deserving of a nomination (side note: I think its screenplay with its incredibly witty dialogue deserves consideration as well). But unless she shows up big in the critics awards she will almost certainly get lost among the more prominent players. As for Ms. Streep, almost all of her recent nominations are for playing parts where there is some type of gimmick that causes audiences to say, wow, look at that acting! These are parts that include extremely eccentric personalities, accents, dementia, alcoholism, amusingly horrible singing, etc. From what I know of Katharine Graham she possessed none of these quirks--save for that power hairdo--so on that basis alone I'm inclined to doubt Streep's inclusion this year.

[Mister Tee]

Best Actress
BATTLE OF THE SEXES / Emma Stone
LADY BIRD / Saoirse Ronan
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBINGS, MISSOURI / Frances McDormand
WONDER WHEEL / Kate Winslet

MISSING OUT
BREATHE / Claire Foy
A FANTASTIC WOMAN / Daniela Vega
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL / Annette Bening
MOLLY'S GAME / Jessica Chastain
MOTHER! / Jennifer Lawrence
THE POST / Meryl Streep

I can't seriously quarrel with your chosen five, but at the same time I can't imagine Jessica Chastain being passed over, given the emphatic nature of the raves she's getting. And then there's Margot Robbie...

If Dench or a mid-range Streep get in over any of these candidates, there'll be widespread gnashing of teeth.

[Mister Tee]

The Children Act might do better to hold off for a Spring release, and hope next year's best actress race is less ferocious.

I'll go into this in more detail in a post-festival thread, but, the way things are shaping up, you'd like to get a waiver so 2 or 3 actresses could get nominated for best actor, given the seeming wide imbalance between the genders this year.