Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[Sabin]

At this point, I don't even know if there's room for her.
I'm going to leave Meryl Streep off from predictions for The Post fro the time being because, y'know, nobody's seen it. After her nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins, it would seem that nothing could keep Meryl Streep from a nomination. But that's not entirely true. In over thirty years, Meryl Streep has starred in only one Best Picture nominee and that's The Hours where she wasn't nominated.

Best Actress
BATTLE OF THE SEXES / Emma Stone
LADY BIRD / Saoirse Ronan
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBINGS, MISSOURI / Frances McDormand
WONDER WHEEL / Kate Winslet

MISSING OUT
BREATHE / Claire Foy
A FANTASTIC WOMAN / Daniela Vega
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL / Annette Bening
MOLLY'S GAME / Jessica Chastain
MOTHER! / Jennifer Lawrence
THE POST / Meryl Streep

[flipp525]

Someone not yet really mentioned who I'm starting to hear some good things about is Emma Thompson in The Children Act. I read Ian McEwan's novel earlier this year and she had an excellent part in it.

Best Actress really does seem to be shaping up as an embarrassment of riches this year. Shades of 2006. Meryl might even lose her annual spot!

[ThePianist]

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
WINNER
Call Me By Your Name
NOMINEES
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
The Papers
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outing Ebbing, Missouri

The multitude of Film Festival screenings have definitely made this race a bit more clear. There's still no doubt in my mind 'Call Me By Your Name' will triumph in the Best Picture category. It's the most praised and beloved film coming out of Toronto as of right now, and it might stay that way once the festival ends. 'The Shape of Water' or 'The Florida Project' might give it a run for it's money in the BP race, but I'm still betting my Bottom Dollar on CMBYN. And considering everything that's going on in the world currently, plus who's in the Whitehouse; I can see The Academy handing their top prize to a film that doesn't preach love and acceptance, but embodies it, with tenderness and grace. It's what the world needs right now, and The Academy will defiantly take notice to this.

Best Achievement in Directing
WINNER
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
NOMINEES
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
Jordan Peele - Get Out
ALT: Joe Wright - Darkest Hour

Best Performance By An Actor in a Leading Role
WINNER
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
NOMINEES
Andrew Garfield - Breathe
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington - Roman Israel, Esq.
ALT: Tom Hanks - The Papers

Best Performance By An Actress in a Leading Role
WINNER
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
NOMINEES
Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman
Meryl Streep - The Papers
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Francis McDormaid - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
ALT: Claire Foy - Breathe

Best Performance By An Actor in a Supporting Role
WINNER
Michael Stulhbarg - Call Me By Your Name
NOMINEES
Ben Mendelson - Darkest Hour
William Dafoe - The Florida Project
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance By An Actress in a Supporting Role
WINNER
Melissa Leo - Novitiate
NOMINEES
Hong Chau - Downsizing
Allison Janey - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalfe - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

[bizarre]

I'm really not sure what to do with Mother!, Downsizing, Mudbound and The Leisure Seeker honestly. Critical reviews have either been ecstatic or poor, and with audiences the divide is even bigger. And, of course, release strategies etcetera. I expect these to be confusing properties up until their theatrical (? - Mudbound) releases. What a strange year, it seems like every studio and outfit saved their baity prestige projects up for one big barrage in case the world ended before they could release them.

[Big Magilla]

On a different note.

Is everyone unanimously agreeing that Michelle Pfeiffer is this years Liam Neeson?

Pretty much.

[ThePianist]

On a different note.

Is everyone unanimously agreeing that Michelle Pfeiffer is this years Liam Neeson?

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Just keep in mind, Get Out is just the kind of picture the expansion of membership was designed to target: minority filmmakers on minority subjects.

I don't want to split hairs, but I would say "diversity" as opposed to "minority." And judging from their list of inclusions, they clearly brought in a diverse group to the Academy.

RE: a "minority" subject... Get Out is about race. It may be from the perspective of a black man, but race isn't just a "minority" subject. It's the issue of the times AND it grossed an enormous amount of money. Not include P&A, Get Out made over fifty times its budget worldwide thus far. I think at least a screenplay nomination is safe, but Get Out could do better than we're all thinking. Critics might rally around it. Right now, Daniel Kaluuya would be my choice for Best Actor. He deserves so much credit for the film's success. Allison Williams...it really just depends on the competition. If the competition is like in 2016, probably not. But I could see her getting a nomination over Rachel McAdams for Spotlight.

[bizarre]

Which, actually, could either help or hurt Williams' chances. I'm confident in Get Out nominations in Best Picture and Screenplay, though. I actually think a re-release would be a very smart idea as far as campaigns go.

[OscarGuy]

Just keep in mind, Get Out is just the kind of picture the expansion of membership was designed to target: minority filmmakers on minority subjects.

[bizarre]

Definitely hope so. It's a strong field with a lot of contenders and probably the one that's filling the fastest, but she's a standout and probably the film's best chance at an acting nomination. Catherine Keener is being flouted as a bubble contender elsewhere and she's definitely good, but with only the hypnosis scene as a showcase I can't help but think this is based solely on her industry reputation. You're right that Williams meets all the criteria for this category in both scene time and scene rollout, arc, shock value and memorability (the milk scene is definitely one that sticks in your mind). The scene where she's on the phone with Chris' friend is fantastic (that disconnect between voice and body!), as is her final scene (SPOILERS - that hideous smile where she recognises that she'll have the upper hand even in death, and the almost indignant shock and disappointment when Chris doesn't carry through with killing her). But it's actually odd how rarely these kinds of featured villain roles get traction so we'll see. And while she's definitely a good actress her reputation is based on her Girls persona which is built on a "is she playing herself?" subtlety so I'm not sure if she's taken seriously. Fingers crossed. It's definitely the kind of nomination I could have seen happening in the 70s.

[flipp525]

I finally saw Get Out and it would be fantastic if Daniel Kaluuya and Allison Williams get some traction. Kaluuya's straight-man role provides an uphill battle for him, but Williams could easily benefit from a campaign and I'm surprised I haven't seen her name thrown around as a contender more.

I actually just saw Get Out for the first time last night and thought it was really great as well. The entire film just felt very relevant. I think Allison Williams could easily score a nomination for this. It's just the perfect amount of good performance meets character shock value. That scene where she's listening to "(I've Had) The Time of My Life" on her iPod and drinking milk is unforgettable.

From what I've read, there has been a bit of a long game planned for this film's Oscar rollout. She could end up being a very solid 5th/6th place contender.

[bizarre]

I finally saw Get Out and it would be fantastic if Daniel Kaluuya and Allison Williams get some traction. Kaluuya's straight-man role provides an uphill battle for him, but Williams could easily benefit from a campaign and I'm surprised I haven't seen her name thrown around as a contender more.

[bizarre]

And my precursor acting predictions, last stand before Venice and TIFF start:

My Oscar predictions, winners in caps:
Actor - Day-Lewis / Elliott / Garfield / OLDMAN / Washington
Actress - Dench / Foy / Lawrence / Stone / WINSLET
Supporting Actor - Buscemi / CRANSTON / Dafoe / Fazal / Stuhlbarg
Supporting Actress - Chau / Hunter / Leo / PFEIFFER / Scott Thomas

---

SAG

Ensemble:
Call Me by Your Name
Downsizing
Dunkirk
* Get Out
Mudbound

Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Actress:
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Supporting Actor:
Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
* Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Allison Williams (Get Out)

---

Globes

Actor, Drama:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
* Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Actor, Comedy/Musical:
* Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Matt Damon (Suburbicon)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Actress, Drama:
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Meryl Streep (The Papers)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Actress, Comedy/Musical:
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Danielle Macdonald (Patti Cake$)
* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Supporting Actor:
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)

Supporting Actress:
* Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Julia Roberts (Wonder)

---

BAFTA

Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Actress:
* Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Supporting Actor:
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Supporting Actress:
Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
* Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel)

---

BFCA

Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Actress:
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Supporting Actor:
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Will Poulter (Detroit)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
* Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

---

NBR:
Actor - Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Actress - Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Supporting Actor - Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

NYFCC:
Actor - Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)
Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Supporting Actress - Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)

LAFCA:
Actor - Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Actress - Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Supporting Actor - Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Supporting Actress - Hong Chau (Downsizing)

NSFC:
Actor - Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)
Actress - Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

[bizarre]

Okay, here's a long post, so I'll shrink the text. My updated longlists for the eight major categories before TIFF and Venice start. Rankings are in order of my perceived likelihood of nomination, and winner predictions (nominees in a Best Picture field of 9 or less) are marked as so.


Best Picture:
01. “Dunkirk” -- WINNER
02. “Call Me by Your Name” -- NOMINEE
03. “Get Out” -- NOMINEE
04. “Downsizing” -- NOMINEE
05. “Last Flag Flying” -- NOMINEE
-
06. “Mother!” -- NOMINEE
07. “The Shape of Water” -- NOMINEE
08. “Blade Runner 2049” -- NOMINEE
09. “Roman Israel, Esq.” -- NOMINEE
10. “Breathe”
-
11. “The Papers”
12. “The Big Sick”
13. “Darkest Hour”
14. “The Florida Project”
15. “Wonderstruck”
-
16. “Detroit”
17. “The Death of Stalin”
18. “Phantom Thread”
19. “Suburbicon”
20. “Lean on Pete”
-
21. “The Snowman”
22. “Coco”
23. “Mudbound”
24. “Wonder”
25. “The Greatest Showman”
-
26. “Wonder Woman”
27. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
28. “Thank You for Your Service”
29. “The Mercy”
30. “The Current War”
-
31. “Kings”
32. “Baby Driver”
33. “Mary Magdalene”
34. “Battle of the Sexes”
35. “Victoria and Abdul”

Bubble Contenders:
“All the Money in the World”, “Ashes in the Snow”, “The Beguiled”, “Chappaquiddick”, “Come Sunday”, “The Death and Life of John F. Donovan”, “The Disaster Artist”, “Disobedience”, “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”, “Girls Trip”, “The Glass Castle”, “Goodbye Christopher Robin”, “Hostiles”, “It Comes at Night”, “Journey’s End”, “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”, “Lady Bird”, “Logan”, “Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House”, “Marshall”, “Molly’s Game”, “Murder on the Orient Express”, “Novitiate”, “On Chesil Beach”, “A Prayer Before Dawn”, “Radegund”, “Roma”, “The Square”, “Stronger”, “Submergence”, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”, “Under the Silver Lake”, “The Upside”, “Wind River”, “Wonder Wheel”

---

Best Director:
01. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) -- WINNER
02. Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
03. Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
04. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
05. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
-
06. Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)
07. Dan Gilroy (Roman Israel, Esq.)
08. Darren Aronofsky (Mother!)
09. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
10. Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
-
11. Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
12. Steven Spielberg (The Papers)
13. Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
14. Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
15. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
-
16. George Clooney (Suburbicon)
17. Tomas Alfredson (The Snowman)
18. Ruben Östlund (The Square)
19. Andrew Haigh (Lean on Pete)
20. Dee Rees (Mudbound)
-
21. Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
22. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Killing of a Sacred Deer)
23. Andy Serkis (Breathe)
24. Xavier Dolan (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
25. David Robert Mitchell (Under the Silver Lake)

Bubble Contenders:
Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel), Dominic Cooke (On Chesil Beach), Scott Cooper (Hostiles), Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled), Destin Cretton (The Glass Castle), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), John Curran (Chappaquiddick), Garth Davis (Mary Magdalene), Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Battle of the Sexes), Deniz Gamze Ergüven (Kings), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Stephen Frears (Victoria and Abdul), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Alfonso Gómez-Rejón (The Current War), Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman), Jason Hall (Thank You for Your Service), Armando Iannucci (The Death of Stalin), Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman), Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi), Sebastián Lelio (Disobedience), Terrence Malick (Radegund), James Mangold (Logan), James Marsh (The Mercy), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Taylor Sheridan (Wind River), Trey Edward Shults (It Comes at Night), Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game), Wim Wenders (Submergence)

---

Best Actor:
01. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) -- WINNER
02. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
03. Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)
04. Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
05. Sam Elliott (The Hero)
-
06. Matt Damon (Downsizing)
07. Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
08. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
09. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
10. Tom Hanks (The Papers)
-
11. Matt Damon (Suburbicon)
12. Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)
13. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
14. Javier Bardem (Mother!)
15. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
-
16. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Current War)
17. Colin Firth (The Mercy)
18. Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
19. Bryan Cranston (The Upside)
20. Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
-
21. Miles Teller (Thank You for Your Service)
22. Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
23. Michael Fassbender (The Snowman)
24. Colin Farrell (The Killing of a Sacred Deer)
25. Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)

Bubble Contenders:
All the Money in the World (Kevin Spacey), The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani), Brad’s Status (Ben Stiller), Come Sunday (Chiwetel Ejiofor), The Death and Life of John F. Donovan (Kit Harington), Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya), Goodbye Christopher Robin (Domhnall Gleeson), Head Full of Honey (Michael Douglas), Hostiles (Christian Bale), Journey’s End (Sam Claflin), Kings (Daniel Craig), Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (Liam Neeson), Murder on the Orient Express (Kenneth Branagh), Our Souls at Night (Robert Redford), A Prayer Before Dawn (Joe Cole), Radegund (August Diehl), The Square (Claes Bang), Submergence (James McAvoy), Under the Silver Lake (Andrew Garfield), The Upside (Kevin Hart), Wildlife (Jake Gyllenhaal)

---

Best Actress:
01. Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
02. Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) -- WINNER
03. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
04. Claire Foy (Breathe)
05. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
-
06. Meryl Streep (The Papers)
07. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
08. Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
09. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
10. Annette Bening (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool)
-
11. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
12. Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
13. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
14. Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
15. Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker)
-
16. Saoirse Ronan (On Chesil Beach)
17. Brie Larson (The Glass Castle)
18. Halle Berry (Kings)
19. Rooney Mara (Mary Magdalene)
20. Kirsten Dunst (Woodshock)
-
21. Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
22. Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
23. Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
24. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
25. Danielle Macdonald (Patti Cake$)

Bubble Contenders:
55 Steps (Helena Bonham Carter), Ashes in the Snow (Bel Powley), Boundaries (Vera Farmiga), Dark River (Ruth Wilson), The Death and Life of John F. Donovan (Natalie Portman), Hostiles (Rosamund Pike), In the Fade (Diane Kruger), The Lovers (Debra Winger), Our Souls at Night (Jane Fonda), Roxanne Roxanne (Chanté Adams), The Seagull (Annette Bening), State Like Sleep (Katherine Waterston), The Tale (Laura Dern), Una (Rooney Mara), The Wife (Glenn Close), Wildlife (Carey Mulligan), Woman Walks Ahead (Jessica Chastain), Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot), The Zookeeper’s Wife (Jessica Chastain)

---

Best Supporting Actor:
01. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
02. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
03. Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying) -- WINNER
04. Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
05. Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
-
06. Colin Farrell (Roman Israel, Esq.)
07. Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
08. Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
09. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
10. Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying)
-
11. Will Poulter (Detroit)
12. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
13. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
14. Oscar Isaac (Suburbicon)
15. Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)
-
16. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
17. Woody Harrelson (The Glass Castle)
18. Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
19. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
20. Bob Odenkirk (The Papers)
-
21. Michael Shannon (The Current War)
22. Simon Russell Beale (The Death of Stalin)
23. Bruce Dern (Chappaquiddick)
24. Christoph Waltz (Downsizing)
25. Justin Timberlake (Wonder Wheel)

Bubble Contenders:
Beatriz at Dinner (John Lithgow), The Big Sick (Ray Romano), Blade Runner 2049 (Harrison Ford), Boundaries (Christopher Plummer), Breathe (Hugh Bonneville), Come Sunday (Martin Sheen), The Death and Life of John F. Donovan (Jacob Tremblay), The Death of Stalin (Steve Buscemi, Rupert Friend, Jason Isaacs, Michael Palin, Jeffrey Tambor), Detroit (John Boyega), Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Jamie Bell), Good Time (Ben Safdie), The Greatest Showman (Zac Efron), Hostiles (Wes Studi), Journey’s End (Paul Bettany), Marshall (Sterling K. Brown), Mary Magdalene (Joaquin Phoenix), The Meyerowitz Stories – New and Selected (Dustin Hoffman, Adam Sandler), Molly’s Game (Idris Elba), Mother! (Ed Harris), Mudbound (Garrett Hedlund), The Papers (Matthew Rhys, Bradley Whitford), The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones), The Square (Terry Notary), Thank You for Your Service (Joe Cole, Scott Haze, Beulah Koale), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson), Woman Walks Ahead (Michael Greyeyes)

---

Best Supporting Actress:
01. Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
02. Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!) -- WINNER
03. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
04. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
05. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
-
06. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
07. Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
08. Allison Williams (Get Out)
09. Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel)
10. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
-
11. Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
12. Julia Roberts (Wonder)
13. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
14. Jessica Chastain (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
15. Julianne Moore (Suburbicon)
-
16. Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)
17. Michelle Williams (The Greatest Showman)
18. Naomi Watts (The Glass Castle)
19. Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)
20. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
-
21. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
22. Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
23. Nicole Kidman (The Killing of a Sacred Deer)
24. Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
25. Kirsten Dunst (The Beguiled)

Bubble Contenders:
Come Sunday (Condola Rashād), The Current War (Katherine Waterston), The Death and Life of John F. Donovan (Susan Sarandon), The Death of Stalin (Andrea Riseborough), The Florida Project (Bria Vinaite), Get Out (Catherine Keener), Goodbye Christopher Robin (Margot Robbie), The Greatest Showman (Keala Settle), Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (Diane Lane), Marshall (Kate Hudson, Keesha Sharp), The Mercy (Rachel Weisz), Patti Cake$ (Bridget Everett), Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville), Radegund (Valerie Pachner), Roman Israel, Esq. (Carmen Ejogo), The Seagull (Saoirse Ronan), The Snowman (Rebecca Ferguson), Stronger (Tatiana Maslany, Miranda Richardson), The Tale (Ellen Burstyn), Thank You for Your Service (Haley Bennett)

---

Best Adapted Screenplay:
01. “Call Me by Your Name” -- WINNER
02. “Last Flag Flying”
03. “Darkest Hour”
04. “The Death of Stalin”
05. “The Disaster Artist”
-
06. “Lean on Pete”
07. “Wonderstruck”
08. “Molly’s Game”
09. “Blade Runner 2049”
10. “Mudbound”
-
11. “The Snowman”
12. “Novitiate”
13. “Wonder”
14. “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
15. “Disobedience”
-
16. “On Chesil Beach”
17. “The Glass Castle”
18. “Thank You for Your Service”
19. “You Were Never Really Here”
20. “The Beguiled”
-
21. “Victoria and Abdul”
22. “The Upside”
23. “The Lost City of Z”
24. “The Leisure Seeker”
25. “The Children Act”

Bubble Contenders:
“Journey’s End”, “Murder on the Orient Express”, “Submergence”, “Wildlife”

---

Best Original Screenplay:
01. “Get Out”
02. “Downsizing” -- WINNER
03. “Roman Israel, Esq.”
04. “The Big Sick”
05. “The Shape of Water”
-
06. “Detroit”
07. “The Florida Project”
08. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
09. “The Papers”
10. “Suburbicon”
-
11. “Phantom Thread”
12. “Breathe”
13. “Wonder Wheel”
14. “Dunkirk”
15. “Coco”
-
16. “The Square”
17. “Battle of the Sexes”
18. “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
19. “Wind River”
20. “Good Time”
-
21. “Beatriz at Dinner”
22. “Lady Bird”
23. “Under the Silver Lake”
24. “The Current War”
25. “I, Tonya”

Bubble Contenders:
“All the Money in the World”, “Baby Driver”, “Brad’s Status”, “Come Sunday”, “The Death and Life of John F. Donovan”, “A Fantastic Woman”, “A Ghost Story”, “Girls Trip”, “Goodbye Christopher Robin”, “The Greatest Showman”, “Hostiles”, “Kings”, “Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House”, “Marshall”, “Mary Magdalene”, “The Mercy”, “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)”, “Mother!”, “Patti Cake$”, “Radegund”, “Roma”

[criddic3]

Andy Serkis' movie is another version of The Jungle Book, not a sequel.