Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[ThePianist]

Updated Oscar Predictions for further noms down below if anyone is interested

[ThePianist]

Long shot. His age will most likely go against him

It all depends on if the older/veteran actors fall flat, (which is very much possible.) Actors like; Washington, Hanks, Phoenix, Jackman and maybe even Oldman, (but I doubt he won't be nominated.) As a matter of fact, it might just take Washington and Hanks to drop out for Chalamet to take a spot, the film is already panning out to be a major best picture contender. He'll have a massive critical backing, and will definitely be campaigning his ass off

[anonymous1980]

So, that means it's entirely possible that 'Call Me By Your Name' could end up with eight nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and two for Original Song).

So no chance for Lead Actor?

Long shot. His age will most likely go against him.

I looked it up. If Timothee Chalamet manages to get a nomination, he'd be the third youngest to get nominated behind only Jackie Cooper and Mickey Rooney (who got two nominations, one at age 19 and another one at 23). He'd also be the first male actor below 25 to get nominated in Lead in 40 years, the last one being John Travolta for Saturday Night Fever.

[Precious Doll]

So, that means it's entirely possible that 'Call Me By Your Name' could end up with eight nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and two for Original Song).

So no chance for Lead Actor?

Long shot. His age will most likely go against him.

[anonymous1980]

So, that means it's entirely possible that 'Call Me By Your Name' could end up with eight nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and two for Original Song).

So no chance for Lead Actor?

[bizarre]

I was high on Vicky Krieps when there were rumours that Phantom Thread was about a sadomasochistic relationship between a fashion designer and a model as opposed to a more 'traditional' biopic of Charles James, now it's unclear to me who she is playing. Has there been any new info released that clarifies this?

[Sabin]

I haven't seen the trailer yet but 'Call Me By Your Name' has two original songs by Sufjan Stevens. That's two more nominations that 'Call Me By Your Name' can hope for. Obviously, it's early in the season, but it looks like 'Call Me By You Name' is in the running for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay, right? So, that's four nominations, plus at least one for Original Song. What else?

Well, Sufjan Stevens is credited as the musician for the film. No idea what his original score contributions are, so that's fuzzy. The film's cinematographer, Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, is a long-time collaborator of Luca Guadagnino (as well as Apichatpong Weerasethakul!) and they both have Suspiria coming out this year possibly, so that could boost his stature for the Academy to welcome Sayombhu into the club. And the film's editor, Walter Fasano, is also a long-time collaborator. A 130 minute running time could work against his chances but he's probably a solid enough bet at this moment. Art direction and costume design nominations are probably long-shots because while this film is set in 1983, that's probably a little too contemporary to gain attention.

So, that means it's entirely possible that 'Call Me By Your Name' could end up with eight nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and two for Original Song).

[ThePianist]

Holy shit dude, that trailer.

http://www.vulture.com/2017/08/watch-th ... ailer.html

Yeah, It's winning.

[ThePianist]

New Oscar Predictions
(End of July/VENICE & TIFF FESTIVAL ANNOUNCEMENT Update)
(Just realized these are some Rock Solid BP Nominee Predictions)

Best Motion Picture of the Year:
WINNER
Call Me By Your Name

Nominees
Downsizing
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Florida Project
Last Flag Flying
The Papers
The Shape of Water
Suburbicon
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SUMMARY: The Trailer for the inevitable Best Picture of 2017 will be dropping in less than 10 Hours, hold onto your seats “pundits.” In regards to ‘Detroit’, It has been receiving loads of Critical Acclaim, but there has been a growing dislike for the film for several reasons; Consistent Brutality, No Major Female Characters of Color, White Director and Screenwriter, Being “Hollow”, Craft and Narrative, and SO on. Most of these are political reasons, and that might be what’ll hold it back. It’s everything that held by Zero Dark Thirty from winning Best Picture x10. 'Suburbicon' and 'The Shape of Water' will be making it out the festivals as major contenders, while 'The Florida Project' could be a potential hit or miss by now, It all depends If It makes it to Telluride.


Best Actor in a Leading Role
WINNER
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread

Nominees
Andrew Garfield - Breathe
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Matt Damon - Suburbicon

SUMMARY: After weeks upon weeks of guessing who'll be nominated for Best Actor in the fifth slot, I've finally came to the conclusion of the one, the only; Matt Damon. The trailer already signifies that, with his Dorky Presence mixed with his Darkly Comedic and Violent Antics, It just reeks of the witty yet dramatic-esc performance he gave in 'The Martian.' That could definitely propel him. As for Garfield, If Claire Foy can win leading actress for ‘Breathe’; then the Oscar for Best Actor could definitely land in the hands of a retiring Day Lewis. The notion that "Oldman is a lock even if the film itself is dry", won't hold too much weight when Awards Season finally hits full stride. After seeing the trailer, It seem likely he'll be a perfect filler Oscar Bait nom. And this point, I guess we'll have to see the film to judge if any of us are correct in regards to Oldman. I can’t picture in my head a nomination for Washington, especially considering It’s a Dan Gilroy Film. I even had a weird dream in which I saw the trailer, and he seemed like Eddie Murphy’s Nutty Professor if he had the voice of the Jerry Lewis rendition, and I believe I’m might not be too far off. Not declaring he has absolutely NO chances. But as of right now, his chances might only seem to go as far as a Golden Globe nom.


Best Actress in a Leading Role:
WINNER
Claire Foy - Breathe

Nominees
Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother!
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

SUMMARY: This category might just be a big cluster fuck in the making. We have; Dench, Streep, Vega, Foy, McDormand, Winslet, Lawrence, Hawkins, Robbie, Stone, Weisz, and GAAAHHH!! If 'Victoria and Abdul' is decent enough, then Dench would definitely be a perfect shoe-inn nomination like she was 3 years ago. And as for Meryl, I'm still keeping her for Supporting, even though she might be heading for lead, (because she's Meryl.) As for Foy and Vega; Foy will definitely be building some momentum, and I think bizzare has officially convinced me on her, but I'm still keeping my bottom dollar in my pocket for Vega. Voters wouldn't want to pass up on making Oscar History. However, along with the Netflix TV ‘The Crown’, and her Emmy nomination, everyone is considering her a star in the making. A Very Young and Talented Actress who’s slowly climbing up the latter, plus she has an Oscar Role, PLUS she’s British? Oscar Winner for Best Actress anyone?


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
WINNER
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name

Nominees
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Javier Bardem - Mother!
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SUMMARY: Already explained on why Stuhlbarg could be an early lock, case closed for now on that one. As for Harrelson and Bardem; Bardem I’ve been keeping here for a little bit, and I’m starting to warm up to the possibility of his nomination more and more, although he could easily drop at any time. And for Harrelson, out of all the “Oscar Roles” he’s taken up this year, this is the one that seems the most likely to get himself nominated. ‘Three Billboards’ is looking to have huge success for awards potential. Although he does have a bigger chance to drop out than Bardem, I’m keeping him there for now. Boyega and Poulter are already out due to the negative press the film has received.

I just want to add my voice to the chorus saying that Mark Rylance will not be nominated.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
WINNER
Melissa Leo – Novitiate

Nominees
Michelle Pfeiffer - Mother!
Meryl Streep - The Papers
Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread
Julianne Moore – Suburbicon

SUMMARY: Since I’m moving Foy to Leading Actress, I’m going back with my earlier prediction in Melissa Leo taking the Academy Award. I see a scenario in which Streep takes all the major awards, (Ala; Golden Globe and BAFTA), before Leo snabs an SAG that’ll lead towards an inevitable victory. I originally had Pfeiffer in Streep’s Place, but after seeing those 30 seconds, (I know, we apparently live in a world where we can judge a film based on half a minute,) I’m pondering what kind of role she has in the film, I suppose I can finally judge when the official trailer drops, (whenever that is.) Moore in ‘Suburbicon’, playing the role of an Aunt under constant stress and paranoia, doing all sorts of drugs, PLUS she’s Julianne Moore? Nomination, very likely IMO.


Best Achievement in Directing
WINNER
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Nominees
Luca Guadagno - Call Me By Your Name
Alexander Payne - Downsizing
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

SUMMARY: I had faith in either Guadagno or Baker until now, I was convinced in Alexander Payne at one point. That's until Nolan came up in July, and punched everyone in the face. July has essentially been the month of Dunkirk, and I believe It's also the month where we've all came to the realization that It'll be a cakewalk for him. An easy sweep for Nolan. As well as a technical sweep for 'Dunkirk.' As for Del Toro, It's a visual feast, has a sentimental factor with political allegories. Plus he's been considered due for a nom. And if he doesn't make the cut; expect Jordan Peele, or maybe even Clooney, (Possibly.)


Best Original Screenplay
WINNER
Alexander Payne - Downsizing
Nominees
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Liz Hannah, Josh Singer - The Papers
George Clooney, Joel and Ethan Coen, Grant Heslov - Suburbicon
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SUMMARY: Payne has already won 2 Oscars, so that in all honestly could be the only thing holding him down from winning Original Screenplay for the Social Satire. 'Downsizing' is expected to break out BIG, and Payne is probably the only person who could take down Nolan for Director, although his film might just win Screenplay and possibly some Tech Wins.


Best Adapted Screenplay
WINNER
James Ivory - Call Me By Your Name
Nominees
Sebastián Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz - Disobedience
Andrew Haigh - Lean on Pete
Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying
Margaret Betts - Novitate

SUMMARY: Like I said earlier:

Like others have said, even If the film doesn't win Best Picture, he'll definitely win for Adapted Screenplay.

Best Cinematography
WINNER
Hoyte Van Hoytema - Dunkirk
Nominees
Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom - Call Me By Your Name
Alexis Zabe - The Florida Project
Dan Laustsen - The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design
WINNER
Phantom Thread
Nominees
Beauty and the Beast
Dunkirk
The Papers
Victoria and Abdul

Best Sound Mixing
WINNER
Dunkirk
Nominees
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Papers
The Shape of Water

Best Film Editing
WINNER
Dunkirk
Nominees
Dunkirk
The Papers
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Suburbicon

Best Sound Mixing
WINNER
Dunkirk
Nominees
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Papers
The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects
WINNER
Blade Runner 2049
Nominees
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
WINNER
The Shape of Water
Nominees
Darkest Hour
Wonderstruck

[Reza]

I just want to add my voice to the chorus saying that Mark Rylance will not be nominated.

Yes quite absurd why he is being touted along with so many others in a rather hysterical way.

[danfrank]

I just want to add my voice to the chorus saying that Mark Rylance will not be nominated.

[bizarre]

Information is skint and it's not clear whether it's a direct sequel or a spiritual sequel (some sources have different character names to the 1973 film). Carell has the Quaid role, Cranston the Nicholson one and Fishburne the Young role if I'm correct, but it seems like the focus of the story revolves around Carell's character this time. Nicholson's role in a supporting context could be an easy path to a Supporting Actor trophy for an actor like Cranston, so I'm predicting him there, but will take him out at a moment's notice. Supporting Actor is a strange, rarefied race this year, I've dropped Boyega from my predictions and I'm hesitant to predict Poulter due to the backlash that could happen if he becomes the film's main push in the acting categories. Rylance I think could be a default in a weak race regardless of how sidelined his role is (this is the category that nominated Matt Damon in 2009 and Mark Ruffalo in 2015, remember). I have Farrell in as a stopgap but who knows what his role is like. Right now I'm running with this ranking of likelihood:

1. Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
2. Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
3. Dafoe (The Florida Project)
4. Rylance (Dunkirk)
5. Farrell (Roman Israel, Esq.)
-
6. Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
7. Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
8. Poulter (Detroit)
9. Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
10. Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-
11. Fishburne (Last Flag Flying)
12. Tremblay (Wonder)
13. Mitchell (Mudbound)
14. Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
15. Odenkirk (The Papers)
-
16. Boyega (Detroit)
17. Elba (Molly's Game)
18. Harrelson (The Glass Castle)
19. Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
20. Shannon (The Current War)

Bubble contenders:
Beale & Isaacs (The Death of Stalin), Bettany (Journey's End), Bonneville (Breathe), Brown (Marshall), Carell (Last Flag Flying), Cole, Haze & Koale (Tank You for Your Service), Efron (The Greatest Showman), Ford (Blade Runner 2049), Greyeyes (Woman Walks Ahead), Harris (Mother!), Hedlund (Mudbound), Hoffman & Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories), Isaac (Suburbicon), Notary (The Square), Phoenix (Mary Magdalene), Plummer (Boundaries), Rhys & Whitford (The Papers), Romano (The Big Sick), Safdie (Good Time), Sheen (Come Sunday), Studi (Hostiles), Timberlake (Wonder Wheel), Waltz (Downsizing)

[ThePianist]

Wait a tick, is Bryan Cranston leading or supporting? Everyone is saying he's a lead. But judging by 'The Last Detail', It seems like he's supporting, right? If it's a spiritual sequel, I'm pretty sure Carrel would be the lead. (I haven't read the book 'Last Flag Flying.') If Cranston is leading, then he'll definitely have a big shot of winning IMO.

[Reza]

Mark Rylance will not be nominated.

Ditto

[Sabin]

Just watched the trailer for 'The Shape of Water' and it got me thinking...

I think we can safely say that had the Academy expanded to ten slots back in 2006 that 'Pan's Labyrinth' would be a reasonably strong bet for a Best Picture nomination. Consider its six nominations and three wins. Not only would that put the film in as a Best Picture nominee, but that would likely make it a foreign-language film with one of the highest nomination totals ever. All of which to say, this guy can make a fantasy movie that can connect.

I just watched the trailer for 'The Shape of Water' and I think this thing looks like it's going to connect. All of the story ingredients look there for a crossover between the popcorn crowd and the art house crowd. It looks like a world out of Jean Pierre Jeunet with a mute heroine like Amelie. There's a touch of alternate history to it. And while Guillermo Del Toro hasn't had a hit in some time, there's a sense of it not being his fault like Peter Jackson's reclaiming of The Hobbit franchise robbed him of his valuable time. I think we're underestimating it. It looks like it could be up for Picture, Director, Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, and Visual Effects, and perhaps someone from the cast.