Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Big Magilla wrote:Best Picture - The Greatest Showman
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Big Magilla »

The surprise could be Annette Bening as Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool which has a November UK release date but no U.S. release date yet. It's the kind of film Harvey Weinstein might snap up after its Toronto showing. He has The Current War, but nothing to promote for a Best Actress Oscar, unless he doesn't want to go against Dench whose films including Shakespeare in Love and Philomenahe has released in the past.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote: This would equal the two wins (one in lead, the other in support) of Maggie Smith, her friend and only competitor for the title of greatest living actress who is not Meryl Streep.
Ah, Magilla: never change. Isabelle Huppert, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslet -- just a few who might challenge that assumption.

Pre-Fall festivals, it's pointless to try to handicap any race -- three of the top four best picture contenders were long shots or unknowns at this point last year. We could have a repeat winner in best actress -- McDormand, Winslet (being touted for Woody's film), Dench -- or a fresher face -- Jessica Chastain, Sally Hawkins. Or a surprise. We're still in the mostly fictional phase of the race.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Best Picture - The Greatest Showman

Granted the first trailer was underwhelming and early word of mouth isn't strong, but the same thing was true of Titanic when I was alone in predicting its big box office and Oscar domination.

My prediction was based on two things. One, the false promise Moulin Rouge!, which many thought early on would be the film to beat at the 2001 Oscars, but Moulin Rouge!, like La La Land, was a false prophet. Chicago, which won the following year, was the real thing as I think The Greatest Showman could be. It's about the birth of show biz, which will be catnip for the voters if done right.
Obviously we don't know how good or bad this film is, but if I had to guess...probably not great. But it could be a big enough hit for sure. Regardless, it would stand out as a colossal anomaly among recent Oscar winners, and I think you're looking a little too far back in history for similarities. The main thing it has going for it is it looks like an outward celebration of our differences, which go a long way. But the trailer does look cloying. And where exactly does this story go that doesn't result in me breaking out in hives? It's also directed by a visual effects article making his first feature.
Big Magilla wrote
Best Actress - Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Several reasons for this. One, she's old and losing her eyesight. She won't have many more chances at a nomination, much less a win. This would equal the two wins (one in lead, the other in support) of Maggie Smith, her friend and only competitor for the title of greatest living actress who is not Meryl Streep. The role and the film look like a lot of fun, better than Mrs. Brown for which she received her first nomination as Queen Victoria and her first Oscar nomination period.
I'm not going to dismiss this. You make some good points, but I just don't think it looks different enough from everything else that she's done in the past. I could also see some resistance towards the story of a great white person learning from a tokenized person of color.

Right now, I would guess Frances McDormand for 'Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri'. She's won in the past but she's an actor who's always reinventing herself. The role looks fun. I'm also not winning to discount Emma Stone in 'The Battle of the Sexes.' She looks very good in the trailer.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Big Magilla »

I'm not going to be able to make predictions without a modicum of certainty until after Toronto, and maybe not even then. In the meantime I haven't seen anything to make me reconsider my early predictions in the top six categories.

Best Picture - The Greatest Showman

Granted the first trailer was underwhelming and early word of mouth isn't strong, but the same thing was true of Titanic when I was alone in predicting its big box office and Oscar domination.

My prediction was based on two things. One, the false promise Moulin Rouge!, which many thought early on would be the film to beat at the 2001 Oscars, but Moulin Rouge!, like La La Land, was a false prophet. Chicago, which won the following year, was the real thing as I think The Greatest Showman could be. It's about the birth of show biz, which will be catnip for the voters if done right.

Best Director - Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

The ecstatic reviews and big box-office have only strengthened his chances. I wasn't even thinking about 1998 when I made my predictions, but like 1998, this could well be a year in which best director goes to the esteemed director of a war picture while best picture goes to a lighter entertainment.

Best Actor - Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Is there anyone who doesn't like Hugh Jackman? He's one of the most versatile actors working today. He can, and has, done just about every kind of role. He can carry a film on his own shoulders or disappear into the supporting cast without his appearance looking like a stunt.

That said, I wasn't so much predicting Jackman as predicting a non-win for Gary Oldman. Churchill has been done to death. What does Oldman do in the film that makes him better than Albert Finney, Richard Burton, Brian Cox, Orson Welles, John Housman, Michael Gambon, John Lithgow and countless other actors who've played him in the past? If they wanted to give him an Oscar simply because he's overdue, they would have done that five years ago when his George Smiley in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy made us forget, at least temporarily, Alec Guinness in the role. Instead they gave the award to an obscure French actor who immediately went back into obscurity.

Best Actress - Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Several reasons for this. One, she's old and losing her eyesight. She won't have many more chances at a nomination, much less a win. This would equal the two wins (one in lead, the other in support) of Maggie Smith, her friend and only competitor for the title of greatest living actress who is not Meryl Streep. The role and the film look like a lot of fun, better than Mrs. Brown for which she received her first nomination as Queen Victoria and her first Oscar nomination period.

Best Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me by Your Name

He's a veteran actor everyone is familiar with from his myriad TV appearances as well as feature films. He's in the mold of recent winners like J.K. Simmons and Mark Rylance. His film is too well received not to win at least one major award. This is the film's easiest shot at that.

Best Supporting Actress - Michelle Pfeiffer in Mother!

This one was just a wild guess, but Pfeiffer is making a comeback in several films this year, of which this seems to be the most highly anticipated.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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I'm toying with the idea of a Sam Elliott nomination. I'm pretty confident in Day-Lewis/Garfield/Oldman/Washington (assuming both Phantom Thread and Roman Israel, Esq. make the date & Breathe is both as big a hit as I expect and more The Theory of Everything than A United Kingdom in tone). Downsizing I have higher expectations for than most, though even the people who liked the script/test screenings agree that Damon is fine but his character is more or less a straight-man cipher for the zaniness surrounding him. Making a strong showing while only netting an acting nomination for Chau is a possibility. I think Chalamet, who will probably ultimately end up with the best-reviewed performance of the year, still faces a lot of obstacles from establishment voters - his youth, of course, but more specifically the junction of his youth, his role and the subject matter. I just don't see Best Actor opening up that way, even in 2017 (though both Hedges and Patel getting nominations in the same category last year was a promising development). It's definitely feasible that Call Me by Your Name still has a Manchester by the Sea-style run in the other categories (with the added bonus of some tech presence) without a Chalamet nomination. This would leave room open for another critically-supported actor in a smaller film with early screener send-outs, someone likely to get more #1s than downballot placements à la Richard Jenkins in 2008 or, more specifically, Demián Bichir in 2011 (which was a shock to me at the time) - though I guess the question is whether or not they'll need SAG support for this, which could be the deciding factor for a Chalamet nomination if someone like Damon doesn't become a safer default pick. The contenders most likely to make this kind of trajectory, in my view, would be Joaquin Phoenix (whose film I'm looking forward to but whose awards chances I'm iffy on), Robert Pattinson (ditto), Harry Dean Stanton (whose narrative is the strongest of all of these - a living legend with a star vehicle at 90, the film itself critically acclaimed outside of his performance, but I don't have much faith in Magnolia where an Oscar race is concerned), James Franco (I could see this happening) and, of course, Sam Elliott, who is already campaigning, seems most likely outside of Franco to hit either SAG or the Globes or both, is a beloved veteran (vs. the divisive Phoenix & Franco and Pattinson, who is still hard to take seriously as a celebrity), unnominated at this point, a possible filler for the first-time-nominee role (which was a sentimental force for, say, Adrien Brody, but does seem to be less relevant in the wake of 2012 and 2013) and will have a lot of friends in the industry ready to bat for him. The film sounds like middlebrow fare, but likeable stuff (exactly like The Visitor, Trumbo, Captain Fantastic or A Better Life) and he'd make sense as a nominee, surprise or not. The wildcard factor lies with The Orchard, which is an untested quantity, though it does have Sony behind it. But it's a comfortable limb to go out on barring entry, circa-TIFF/Venice, from a new contender like Boseman, Sutherland, Neeson, Gyllenhaal, Cumberbatch, Teller or Firth. I think it's safe to say that Hugh Jackman is out of the race at this point and I'm skeptical of The Papers in general but especially the opportunities it gives to the perpetually unlucky-of-late Tom Hanks vs. Meryl Streep.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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IMO, 'Downsizing' can be permitted from that. It's opening Venice Film Festival, so the screening reactions might just be from people who find the most ridiculous, tiniest problems with it. I totally agree in regards to everyone jumping on board and rushing to conclusions based on "Screening Reactions." That isn't the be all-end all to a films award chances. However, If Alexander Payne's film has a chance to be a big heavy hitter in the race, 'The Greatest Showmen' doesn't. It's from a first time director, who hasn't done diddly squat. And it's a passion project for someone who's only acting in the film, not writing or directing, that normally isn't a good sign. Tech noms seem likely, but not much else. It probably won't be 'Annie' like the reactions have suggested. But it'll probably be just too Average and Mediocre to garner Jackman a nom. (My best guess anyways.)
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by OscarGuy »

Well, Sabin, I guess we can hope.

And this whole use of bad test screenings as a litmus test for Oscar consideration or quality of final product, need to remember that Scrosese's Goodfellas had two notoriously bad test screenings. It is considered one of the most acclaimed films of the 1990s. Other prominent bad test screenings: Sunset Boulevard, Seven, Starship Troopers, Big, Shawshank Redemption, and many more. Just because a film has a bad test screening doesn't mean the movie's bad, it just means audiences have problems with it and that it might need to be tinkered with.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

OscarGuy wrote
Although you're being charitable to Logan, I notice that you don't put either Patrick Stewart or Hugh Jackman on the list. Granted, Logan will only boost Jackman's profile for The Greatest Showman, but a case could be made for a career tribute to Patrick Stewart. Of course, that would require the Academy to think out of the box, so it probably won't happen.
I thought about it, but let's be real. It's not going to happen. Although Hugh Jackman is VERY good in the film, and if he is nominated for 'The Greatest Showman" part of it will be for 'Logan." Both Jackman and Stewart have enough for a nomination, but it's just so unlikely. The only reason I'm including 'Logan' as a possibility is because I expect the studio to give it a push and also for it to turn up on quite a few Best Of lists.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Oscar:
Best Motion Picture of the Year: Call Me By Your Name
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role: Claire Foy (Breathe)
Best Achievement in Directing: Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Best Original Screenplay: The Florida Project
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

BAFTA:
Best Film: Dunkirk
Best Leading Actor: Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Best Leading Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
David Lean Award for Direction: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Best Screenplay (Original): Get Out
Best Screenplay (Adapted): Call Me By Your Name

WGA:
Best Original Screenplay: The Florida Project
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

DGA:
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film: Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

SAG:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: The Florida Project
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Claire Foy (Breathe)

PGA:
Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures: The Florida Project

Golden Globes:
Best Motion Picture - Drama: Call Me By Your Name
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Last Flag Flying
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama: Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Best Director - Motion Picture: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture: Get Out
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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'The Greatest Showman' screenings have been dreadful. From what I've seen from the trailer, It looks a bit mediocre. So, if 'The Greatest Showman' is indeed going to be a flop. Then I fucking pray FOX pushes Jackman for 'Logan.' Even though that probably won't be the case.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Although you're being charitable to Logan, I notice that you don't put either Patrick Stewart or Hugh Jackman on the list. Granted, Logan will only boost Jackman's profile for The Greatest Showman, but a case could be made for a career tribute to Patrick Stewart. Of course, that would require the Academy to think out of the box, so it probably won't happen.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by anonymous1980 »

I would also add:

BABY DRIVER
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing

THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE
Best Animated Feature
Best Original Song

THE LOST CITY OF Z
Best Cinematography
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
(though this deserves more)

OKJA (apparently it's Oscar-eligible)
Best Visual Effects

SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING
Best Visual Effects
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

Well, Dunkirk reviews are out so we're now in a different race. Here's what's out that we know is in the running to some degree. I'm going to be very charitable with movies like Logan and Wonder Woman by placing them in the running for Best Picture. These are just films of note and the categories where they might make a showing.



BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Best Original Song
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Visual Effects

THE BEGUILED
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design

THE BIG SICK
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actress / Holly Hunter
Best Supporting Actress / Zoe Kazan
Best Original Screenplay

DUNKIRK
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor / Mark Rylance
Best Original Screenplay
Best Original Score
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Effects
Best Visual Effects

GET OUT
Best Picture
Best Original Screenplay

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY, VOL. 2
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects

LOGAN
Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Makeup

WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
Best Visual Effects

WONDER WOMAN
Best Picture
Best Costume Design
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Effects
Best Visual Effects
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by bizarre »

Just nerding out a bit, but as an addendum to my latest predictions (including the amendments to Best Supporting Actress and Best Picture - which if I haven't already updated my original post with I will soon), here's my acting predictions for the major precursors:

Note - current Oscar acting category predictions:
Actor: Damon*, Day-Lewis, Garfield, Oldman, Washington
Actress: Dench, Foy, Lawrence, McDormand, Stone
Supporting Actor: Boyega, Cranston, Dafoe, Farrell, Stuhlbarg
Supporting Actress: Chau, Janney, Leo, Pfeiffer**, Williams***
* for Downsizing
** for Mother!
*** Allison Williams

SAG

Best Ensemble:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
The Florida Project
* Get Out
Mudbound

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Best Actress:
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
* Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)

Best Supporting Actor:
* John Boyega (Detroit)
Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
* Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Allison Williams (Get Out)

---

Golden Globes

Best Actor, Drama:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
* Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
* Matt Damon (Downsizing)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Best Actress, Drama:
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
* Claire Foy (Breathe)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Meryl Streep (The Papers)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Danielle Macdonald (Patti Cake$)
* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Best Supporting Actor:
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Colin Farrell (Roman Israel, Esq.)
Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)

Best Supporting Actress:
* Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Julia Roberts (Wonder)

---

BAFTA

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)

Best Actress:
* Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Claire Foy (Breathe)
Natalie Portman (Annihilation)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)

Best Supporting Actor:
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Ali Fazal (Victoria and Abdul)
Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Annihilation)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
* Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

---

BFCA

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)

Best Actress:
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
* Claire Foy (Breathe)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Natalie Portman (Annihilation)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Best Supporting Actor:
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
* Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
* Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

---

NBR

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Annihilation)
Best Supporting Actor: Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

---

NYFCC

Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.)
Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)

---

LAFCA

Best Actor: Sam Elliott (The Hero)
Best Actress: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau (Downsizing)

---

NSFC

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)
Best Actress: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
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