Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

[ThePianist]

Time for me to throw something out there; Does anyone think this Film will harm Oldman's Chances at an Oscar nom?

[ThePianist]

Has anybody seen the trailer for 'Darkest Hour?' It looks very strange and broad. Not terribly impressed.

Agreed. Since Joe Wright is at the helm, I always knew it was going to be that way. People kept telling me otherwise, even saying It was such a major best picture contender and an actual threat. But he just isn't that talented.


"It's Joe Wright doing what he's best at! Plus Gary Oldman in an Oscar Worthy Role!"

Well, Joe Wright did 'Pan.' Just because this film is a Total Genre Switch, doesn't indicate he'll just become a 'decent filmmaker' again.

[Sabin]

Has anybody seen the trailer for 'Darkest Hour?' It looks very strange and broad. Not terribly impressed.

[ThePianist]

So, while everybody's discussing months-away films here, the online reactions to Dunkirk seem to be over the moon. Even with the Nolan discount, it looks like a serious contender.

It's still rather 50/50, with its July Release Date, I can't guess if the Studio wants to put it up for any Awards.

Granted, It still has better chances than 'Detroit' at this stage. But if the extremely early reviews for it say anything. We might be in for a major contender.

[ThePianist]

And remember: academy members don't vote for best picture. They place the nominees in order of preference.

More specifically; 'Voters.' The same voters who voted for Moonlight and Spotlight, will vote for CMBYN. (Or The Florida Project, If it's up for any major contention, which It probably will be.)

[ThePianist]

People like Matt Damon wanted and voted for 'Moonlight' to win because of It's tender universal themes, while also being an important film.

Matt Damon "voted" for Manchester by the Sea. And remember: academy members don't vote for best picture. They place the nominees in order of preference.

https://www.aol.com/article/entertainme ... /21720640/

While Matt Damon's "Manchester by the Sea" is an Oscar front-runner to win big at this year's awards, the superstar actor shared with AOL which film impacted him the most, and whom he hopes wins big at the 89th Academy Awards.

"For me, without question, the movie that absolutely wrecked me this year was 'Moonlight,'" the actor revealed. "I've seen it twice already and I was just floored by it."

"I think [it's] probably one of my favorite films in -- not just this year -- but in quite some time," Damon said.

[The Original BJ]

So, while everybody's discussing months-away films here, the online reactions to Dunkirk seem to be over the moon. Even with the Nolan discount, it looks like a serious contender.

A lot of us thought after the Inception omission that Nolan would probably need a "serious" movie to break into the Director leagues, but as soon as he had that, it might come immediately. If reviews are as good as early word promises, this could be it.

[Mister Tee]

So, while everybody's discussing months-away films here, the online reactions to Dunkirk seem to be over the moon. Even with the Nolan discount, it looks like a serious contender.

[Sabin]

So that puts 'Downsizing' in the company of 'La La Land', 'Birdman', 'Gravity', and 'Black Swan' among recent films.

[Precious Doll]

It's just ben announced that Downsizing will open the upcoming Venice Film Festival.

[Precious Doll]

Sabin's comment 'What we know is that it's going to be a hot button film for its depiction of an underage relationship' is potentially an issue. I say potentially because the only film critic that I am aware of has had an issue with this has been Laura Kern in Film Comment who dismissed the film in very brief two sentence review. In the film Elio (Timothée Chalamet) is 17. The age of Oliver (Armie Hammer) is never mentioned, though I understand in the book he is 24. Whilst I personally don't see the ages as a problem we are living in a world now that has moved on from reds under the beds to peds under the bed but Hollywood has always been very liberal. We will just have to see how this plays out.

Would it have made much of a difference to the storyline if they had simply made Elio 18?

I don't think so.

[mlrg]

People like Matt Damon wanted and voted for 'Moonlight' to win because of It's tender universal themes, while also being an important film.

Matt Damon "voted" for Manchester by the Sea. And remember: academy members don't vote for best picture. They place the nominees in order of preference.

[bizarre]

Another controversy that could produce heat, albeit from the opposite side of the political equation, is the current talk about the lack of black women's representation in Detroit. I don't think that could derail its chances if it becomes a reasonable crossover commercial hit, but if it's gunning for nominations on critical acclaim or sociopolitical relevance alone it could hurt its chances (especially if Poulter is campaigned over Boyega as some have noted elsewhere).

Edit: Regarding Precious Doll's analysis of the foreign-language critics' awards winners, it's worthwhile to note that Séraphine, Poetry and Mother (Vincere too? Though I'm not sure about that one) weren't eligible anyway as their films didn't get submitted for voting eligibility at all. A Fantastic Woman is already higher profile than those films were and will certainly get its paperwork in order.

[ThePianist]

Guys, you're looking at this wrong. The question is "Can it be turned into a hot button issue?" The answer is yes. The right wing in this country is always looking for opportunities to say that the left is trying to take us off-course. If the Academy even looks like it's about to warm up to a film about a gay relationship where one of the characters is even slightly underage, they can turn 'Call Me By Your Name' into a example of everything that the left wants to turn the world into.

Trust me, the right wing in the country isn't going to convince the Academy to do anything. The majority of the country is already against Donald Trump and the right wing mentality. And with 'Moonlight' winning Best Picture this year, they might even take a bigger step further. Also, the majority of Hollywood in general is very liberal and progressive. Almost the entirety of twitter and the internet, along with tons of 'progressive' voters, garnered 'Moonlight' it's Best Picture Win. People like Matt Damon wanted and voted for 'Moonlight' to win because of It's tender universal themes, while also being an important film. People like Matt fucking Damon would definitely vote 'Call Me By Your Name' for Best Picture. Now, how in the hell is FOX News going to destroy that? I know you didn't specifically mention that. But I will, because It's not happening. (Bring it on Limbaugh, you fat fuck.) Also "everything that the left wants to turn the world into?" Loving, Caring, Acceptive, Open, and Honest? Sure, yeah. Trust me on this too, there will be many people explaining it in the right way so people don't get confused or concerned about it's subject matter and what it's trying to say.

[Sabin]

Guys, you're looking at this wrong. The question is "Can it be turned into a hot button issue?" The answer is yes. The right wing in this country is always looking for opportunities to say that the left is trying to take us off-course. If the Academy even looks like it's about to warm up to a film about a gay relationship where one of the characters is even slightly underage, they can turn 'Call Me By Your Name' into a example of everything that the left wants to turn the world into.