Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 6377
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by anonymous1980 »

There have been lots of films about underage boys having affairs/sexual encounters with older women that are still well-received, not controversial and beloved today and some of them got nominated for Oscars: Summer of '42 (got 5 Oscar noms, including Screenplay), Murmur of the Heart (got a Screenplay nomination) and Get Out Your Handkerchiefs (won Foreign Language Film). So this SHOULDN'T be treated any different just because of the queer element.
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by OscarGuy »

Not that it isn't a volatile topic in certain situations, but age of consent (sexual consent) in the United States varies by state. 10 states require the participants to be 18 years or older. 8 additional states require 17 or older. 16 is the legal consent age in the remaining 32. Then there are close-in-age exemptions in several states. For more detail, see this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_c ... ted_States.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Greg
Tenured
Posts: 3285
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:12 pm
Location: Greg
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Greg »

Precious Doll wrote:Sabin's comment 'What we know is that it's going to be a hot button film for its depiction of an underage relationship' is potentially an issue. I say potentially because the only film critic that I am aware of has had an issue with this has been Laura Kern in Film Comment who dismissed the film in very brief two sentence review. In the film Elio (Timothée Chalamet) is 17. The age of Oliver (Armie Hammer) is never mentioned, though I understand in the book he is 24. Whilst I personally don't see the ages as a problem we are living in a world now that has moved on from reds under the beds to peds under the bed but Hollywood has always been very liberal. We will just have to see how this plays out.
Would it have made much of a difference to the storyline if they had simply made Elio 18?
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

NEW BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Andrew Garfield - Breathe (WINNER)
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Michael Fassbender – The Snowman

I'm souring on Oldman, If there's not enough worthy contenders, he might do well as a filler nom considering a lot of people respect him. It's very bold to predict Fassbender for the Tomas Alfredson Crime Thriller, but let me explain first. Firstly, It has a decent Awards Season release date, much like Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy did. Secondly, If Alfredson can conjure up a nom for Oldman, he can do the same for the very talented Fassbender. Thirdly, from what I've heard from the novel, It seems he'll be giving a cold, determined, intense and brutal performance. The only thing holding him back is Universal, who's track record in campaigning for the RIGHT things isn't stellar. Secondly, if Oldman doesn't turn up, then I very, VERY boldly predict Bardem for 'Mother!' The man hasn't received a Nomination since Biutiful, and If his role is playing an emotionally self-destructing husband going through events in the vein of a Psychological Thriller Horror variation of 'Funny Games.' Then I'm sure he can pull off a great performance, much like Lawerence probably will. Since Oldman's extremely early buzz is dying down for a Best Actor Lock, I'm still predicting the race will come down between Garfield and Day Lewis.


NEW BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman (WINNER)
Brooklyn Prince - The Florida Project
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother!
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

Although Woody Allen's Last 2 Outings in the form of 'Cafe Society' and 'Irrational Man' weren't too well received, (especially the latter.) His latest film 'Wonder Wheel' is getting a prime awards season release date, one that 'Blue Jasmine' (the film that garnered Cate Blanchett with a Best Actress Win,) didn't have. Even then, the film still made it's way to Awards Season to help Blanchett receive an Oscar. This film on the other hand, If it's really good, might be fresh in the minds of Academy Voters, so I'm now betting Winslet to receive a Nomination, maybe even a Screenplay nom for Allen. For bizarre to compare 'The Florida Project' to 'Beasts of the Southern Wild,' is kind of silly, but the only thing that makes sense in that comparison is Brooklyn Prince being nominated for Best Actress, because who else will? Glenn Close? Emma Stone? Margot Robbie? Judi Dench? Rooney Mara? Don't think so. Anyways, I've already explained why Vega has a strong stance to be an Early Contender.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
John Boyega - Detroit
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Steve Buscemi - Lean on Pete

I have a feeling Buscemi is the one veteran Oscar prediction that everyone gets wrong, Ala; Liam Neeson, Harvey Keitel, Robert De Niro, Samuel L. Jackson, so on and so forth. On the flipside, he apparently plays a massive asshole in the film. So a villain role could propel him to his first Oscar Nomination. But then again, It might not, with other contenders like Dafoe and Stuhlbarg likely to be the heavy hitters in the race, along with a second nom for Cranston, and a younger star like Boyega getting a rub who's been on fire ever since 'Star Wars.' Speaking of which, Michael Stuhlbarg still seems to be the earliest lock. Again, not having a large amount of screen time, while still being Warm, Tender, and Heartbreaking. It's apparently In the vein of Mahershala Ali, only instead of his presence beautifully haunting the entire film, his last scene looms and echoes throughout the past events in the 2 Hour and 10 Minute runtime. He's been compared to the likes of Robin Williams in 'Good Will Hunting.' Which is already a positive sign. Also in regard to Boyega, he'll definitely have the most screen time out of all the actors in the film, but there will be enough equal focus for all the other minor characters for Boyega not to be considered to definitive "LEAD" of the film, even though he'll be the protagonist. It'll be reminiscent of Ethan Hawke in 'Training Day' when he was nominated.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Claire Foy - Breathe (WINNER)
Michelle Pfeiffer - Mother!
Melissa Leo - The Novitiate
Meryl Streep - The Papers
Vicky Krieps - Phantom Thread

I'll explain why I put Streep in Supporting, It seems like one of those safe and conventional predictions everyone gets wrong. Yes, I know it's the common "thing" that Meryl Streep gets nominated for the BIG PRESTIGIOUS BEST LEADING ACTRESS AWARD every year, I get that. But even though Hanks and Streep are at the forefront, Josh Singer's rewrites might make it more Spotlight-esc, not necessarily EXACTLY like Spotlight just because he wrote it, but It mights focus less on the characters and more on the events that occur in the film. Sure, the narrative focus will be on both of them, but they might take a backseat while FOX campaigns Streep for supporting. In all honestly, who knows, my best guess if this doesn't happen and If my predictions do turn out to be correct, Brooklyn Prince and Meryl Streep might be switched around. Claire Foy has just been nominated for an Emmy in the Netflix TV Show 'The Crown.' If she goes on to win that (even though it might be Elisabeth Moss,) then expect her to be propped up by the Academy in the "Young Star" type of Oscar Win.
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

Precious Doll wrote:I don't think the fact that Moonlight won last year will have any bearing on a win for this film. They are worlds apart and the gay element of Moonlight was much more subdued and not the primary narrative driver. Though really Call My By Your Name is first and foremost a coming of age film.
Thank You!
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

THIS
⬇⬇⬇⬇
User avatar
Precious Doll
Emeritus
Posts: 4453
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2003 2:20 am
Location: Sydney
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Precious Doll »

I'll chime in on a couple of films that I have seen and what I think there chances are. Sometimes a months or so after seeing them puts them in a different perspective.

Call Me By Your Name

Film, Supporting Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg) and Adapted Screenplay are very much assured. Actor is very iffy and mainly because the Academy has in the past often shown ageism when in comes to actors in a lead role. There are exceptions but this is going to depend on what other performances emerge as the year progresses. They don't have to be better than Timothée Chalamet, they just have to be considered good enough in the Academy voters eyes. Heaven forbid Sony decides to promote him as a supporting actor candidate because it would go down as one of the worst cases of category fraud ever. A nomination for director Luca Guadagnino could really go either way.

Also, Shuhlbarg could find himself competing with himself for a supporting nomination in The Papers but I couldn't imagine he'd beat his work in Call Me By Your Name. I don't think the fact that Moonlight won last year will have any bearing on a win for this film. They are worlds apart and the gay element of Moonlight was much more subdued and not the primary narrative driver. Though really Call My By Your Name is first and foremost a coming of age film.

Sabin's comment 'What we know is that it's going to be a hot button film for its depiction of an underage relationship' is potentially an issue. I say potentially because the only film critic that I am aware of has had an issue with this has been Laura Kern in Film Comment who dismissed the film in very brief two sentence review. In the film Elio (Timothée Chalamet) is 17. The age of Oliver (Armie Hammer) is never mentioned, though I understand in the book he is 24. Whilst I personally don't see the ages as a problem we are living in a world now that has moved on from reds under the beds to peds under the bed but Hollywood has always been very liberal. We will just have to see how this plays out.

On a final note about 3,000 people saw the film at the Sydney Film Festival. I don't know how many people vote (I don't) but the film came in 2nd in the audience voting so people clearly don't have any problems with the film and of all the film I attended (36) this one received the warmest response at the end.

A Fantastic Woman

Unlike Bizarre I do think the will be Chile's entry for the Foreign Language Film. However, the Chilean election committee could very well go with either Family Life or Los Perros or something else.

On one hand with Sony as the US distributor they would be wise to go with A Fantastic Woman. On the other hand I do prefer selections to be based on what selectors think is the best film rather than the 'most likely to get nominated' choice. As Bizarre rightly said a lack of nomination for the film won't affect Daniela Vega's chances. There are other factors they will affect her chances. She really needs a New York or LA win. Or even runner-up. But she faces formable competition from Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion who I think at this point of the year is the front-runner for both of these critic groups, though LA has a history of favouring foreign actresses. Also, its worth noting that actresses from foreign language films have tendered to win either New York or LA over the last 10 years or so to gain an Oscar nomination:

2007 - Marion Cotillard (LA)
2012 - Emmanuelle Riva (LA - shared)
2014 - Marion Cotillard (NY - also cited for The Immigrant)
2016 - Isabelle Huppert (LA & NY - also cited for Things to Come)

Winning either or both of these awards doesn't mean you luck out on an Oscar nomination just ask:

2009 - Yolande Moreau (LA)
2010 - Kim Eye-Ja (LA)
2011 - Yun Jung-hee (LA)
2013 - Adele Exarchopoulos (LA - shared)

Vega's performance is low-key, discrete and restrained. She is playing someone trying to get on with their life after the death of her partner. Scenes of some shocking humiliation are handled with dignity and determination, though she does reach breaking point in a terrific confrontation scene. She also gets to performance three vastly different musical numbers in the film allowing her to showcase her impressive vocal skills (I'm assuming she did her own singing).

I don't think the Academy will have any problem with nominating a trans actress, particularly when the performance is so worthy but for a performance in a foreign language film it is going to be an uphill battle and if the Academy have five English speaking performances they deem suitable enough, they do tend to go with those. I certainly would rate Vega's chances above Cynthia Nixon, solely on the basis that Music Box are distributing A Quiet Passion and probably do not have the tools necessary to help Nixon gain what would a most deserved nomination.

Whilst on the best actress category, has anybody seen Salma Hayek in Beatriz at Dinner?

The film sounds very interesting and Hayek did appear to receive what reads like the best reviews of her career.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

bizarre wrote:You're definitely going out on a few limbs and more power to you, though I think some of those risks are astronomically unlikely to pay off. Intrigued by your Streep placement, though - I was playing with the idea of putting her in supporting but most reviews of the Hannah script I've read make it clear that it's the Streep & Hanks show - Redford & Hoffman in All the President's Men with more dramatic meat - foremost and the rest of the cast pop up in a handful of scenes at most, not exactly a Spotlight-style ensemble. Though there have been rewrites and Josh Singer has been brought in as a credited writer to doctor Hannah's draft, have you heard anything different about the new one that would give credence to placing Streep in supporting?

Roxanne Roxanne I can guarantee you won't go further than an NBR Breakthrough award and a Spirits nomination at most. If any of the female breakthroughs from Sundance go the distance (a longshot) I'd put my money on Danielle Macdonald from Patti Cake$, though the enthusiasm for that seemed to evaporate immediately once it failed to win the Dramatic Prize. The same goes for Lucky, which is unfortunate (reminds me of a That Evening Sun-type situation), I think Sam Elliott in The Hero is now filling that particular niche but I see nothing higher-profile than a Grandma-style run for him.

I like Sean Baker but even if The Florida Project is his most accessible film yet his style is still too woozy-LA-mood piece diffuse to translate easily to a Whiplash/Beasts-style breakthrough so I'm not buying the Best Pic talk.

Vega's chances leap with the new membership statistics but she faces a lot of obstacles especially in a race with dozens of former winners in showcase performance vehicles and with a lot of kneejerk prejudice towards trans* performers. I'm also doubting that her film will be chosen by Chile for FLF, though that's not really a hurdle for getting an Oscar nomination (maybe for a non-European film, but there's more cards on the Best Actress table than there were in 2004 when Catalina Sandino Moreno was nominated. I haven't seen A Fantastic Woman but I do remember the raves and embryonic campaign for Paulina García in Gloria back in 2013 - when I saw it I was surprised by how anti-classical (or un-Oscar-y) an actors' vehicle it was, so I wonder if the film itself plays with relatable, 'nominateable' arcs and archetypes.
Let me take a guess, did you predict a Best Supporting Actor nod for Liam Neeson in 'Silence?' Or how about 'The Birth of a Nation' getting a Best Picture Nod? How about 'Unbroken' winning Best Picture? What you're saying right now about 'The Florida Project,' is what everyone was saying about 'Moonlight' last year back in July. All signs point towards 'The Florida Project' being A24's Number 1 Priority for Awards Season. Everyone was saying "Yeaah, I see 'Moonlight' being another 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' " back in July. Are you kidding me? Anyways, I can see the error in nominating Chante Adams, It's just seems to be an apparent rough year in predicting who'll win, let alone who'll be nominated. BUT I AM NOT letting go of Brooklyn Prince. Jennifer Lawrence might have the biggest chance alongside Vega, but the Best Actress Winner of the last 3 Years has been someone who hasn't won already. (Also, don't you dare mention Dench, It's not happening for that Film.) All the stars in the sky seem to be lining up for 'Una Mujer Fantástica.' The difference between this, and 'Gloria,' was that the latter didn't have enough buzz. Sure it got very, very small critical backing that consisted of sub-par/highly positive reviews. But the Academy didn't feel like it was the right time to put a Trans-Actress up for contention, I don't even think they noticed it. There was an abundance of contenders that were way ahead of her at that time, like: Adams, Bullock, and most importantly; Blanchett. 'Una Mujer Fantástica' has a prime awards seasons release, we'll just see how much it swims with the other fish I suppose. Also, I highly doubt Patti Cake$ will go ANYWHERE ahead of Vega's Performance. Trust me, after that trailer, my gosh. :lol: SPEAKING of Trailers, that new Darkest Hour trailer really shows a Oldman is totally a lock for Best Actor mate. :wink: But in all seriousness, what did I say about that film about not getting a Best Picture Nom? That film looks so mediocre.
"IT'S PRIME JOE WRIGHT BAIT!" Everyone said on MovieAwardsRedux. Pfff, idiots.

"I have faith in it because it's Joe Wright going back to what he does best." - All the moronic people in the world. Fact.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

ThePianist wrote
“A gay movie winning twice in a row? Nope. Any kind of movie winning twice in a row is fairly unlikely, I'd say. Voter fatigue.”
Bullshit, shut your stupid face before I shut it for you.
“Moonlight grossed 20m and captured the zeitgeist in an unprecedented way-- it also faced ZERO backlash whatsoever while this movie will be criticized for the older man, younger boy angle.”
Are you high? This isn’t Fox News you dimwit. Ugggh.
Well, I actually sort of agree with you for a different reason. "Voter fatigue."

I think we can agree that the main reason why Moonlight won is the new membership. Sure, Moonlight had a very strong campaign and the new political climate certainly helped it, but ultimately it was the changes to the Academy worked. It's not that they group-thought "We have to vote this way..." It's individually the new voters are more likely fans of Moonlight than La La Land. Which means we're in uncharted territory. We can't predict how they're going to vote from here on out.

I mentioned before that Call Me By Your Name apparently has a very European sensibility. Maybe this will be right up their alley regardless of what other guilds it wins over or doesn't.

What we know is that it's going to be a hot button film for its depiction of an underage relationship. We know that it's already getting great reviews. So, could it win? At this point from what we know, it's probably the likeliest winner.
"How's the despair?"
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by bizarre »

ThePianist wrote:
bizarre wrote: I'd love to know where you're getting your intel for this because stars seem ready to align for both him and Gilroy. Though that new title, sheesh...
I know, that title, my god. Anyways, to answer your question; If we're going by statistics, If Gilroy couldn't produce an Oscar Nomination for Jake Gyllenhaal, how much you want to bet he'll produce one for Washington? Besides that, I just have a gut feeling he won't be able to.

And to answer your second question: 'Call Me By Your Name' and 'The Florida Project.' Both films will definitely be MASSIVE hits at the upcoming fall festivals, you should definitely look into both of them. :wink:
On the Nightcrawler note - a popular film with good reviews that just missed (most likely next in line for Best Pic, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, though the latter is debatable) but made a splash anyway... seems like a Whiplash-style Round 1 to a La La Land-style Round 2 (though I don't expect RI,E. to be a Best Pic frontrunner). It gives me Michael Clayton teas, though, and I'm following that instinct, plus a lot of people will be revenge-voting for Washington this year if the film is acclaimed. I do hope they change the title back, though.
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by bizarre »

You're definitely going out on a few limbs and more power to you, though I think some of those risks are astronomically unlikely to pay off. Intrigued by your Streep placement, though - I was playing with the idea of putting her in supporting but most reviews of the Hannah script I've read make it clear that it's the Streep & Hanks show - Redford & Hoffman in All the President's Men with more dramatic meat - foremost and the rest of the cast pop up in a handful of scenes at most, not exactly a Spotlight-style ensemble. Though there have been rewrites and Josh Singer has been brought in as a credited writer to doctor Hannah's draft, have you heard anything different about the new one that would give credence to placing Streep in supporting?

Roxanne Roxanne I can guarantee you won't go further than an NBR Breakthrough award and a Spirits nomination at most. If any of the female breakthroughs from Sundance go the distance (a longshot) I'd put my money on Danielle Macdonald from Patti Cake$, though the enthusiasm for that seemed to evaporate immediately once it failed to win the Dramatic Prize. The same goes for Lucky, which is unfortunate (reminds me of a That Evening Sun-type situation), I think Sam Elliott in The Hero is now filling that particular niche but I see nothing higher-profile than a Grandma-style run for him.

I like Sean Baker but even if The Florida Project is his most accessible film yet his style is still too woozy-LA-mood piece diffuse to translate easily to a Whiplash/Beasts-style breakthrough so I'm not buying the Best Pic talk.

Vega's chances leap with the new membership statistics but she faces a lot of obstacles especially in a race with dozens of former winners in showcase performance vehicles and with a lot of kneejerk prejudice towards trans* performers. I'm also doubting that her film will be chosen by Chile for FLF, though that's not really a hurdle for getting an Oscar nomination (maybe for a non-European film, but there's more cards on the Best Actress table than there were in 2004 when Catalina Sandino Moreno was nominated. I haven't seen A Fantastic Woman but I do remember the raves and embryonic campaign for Paulina García in Gloria back in 2013 - when I saw it I was surprised by how anti-classical (or un-Oscar-y) an actors' vehicle it was, so I wonder if the film itself plays with relatable, 'nominateable' arcs and archetypes.
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

Firstly, have to mention I don’t reference ‘Golderby’ for whoever said that in the other thread. Secondly, “The Gold Rush Gang” (autismo-downsydros) are nothing but pathetic celebrity obsession tumblr users that suck at this thing, smh. Anyways, this month has definitely thrown me for a loop, with more news and trailers coming out for a ton of Potentially Oscar Nominated Films, with gut feelings starting to kick in as well. Luca Guadagnino’s Apparent Erotic Masterpiece is the still the earliest lock for Best Picture. It’s different, fresh, heartbreaking, and most importantly; Progressive and Liberal. (Which we all know Modern Day Hollywood LOVES to boast themselves as being.)

“A gay movie winning twice in a row? Nope. Any kind of movie winning twice in a row is fairly unlikely, I'd say. Voter fatigue.”

Bullshit, shut your stupid face before I shut it for you.
“Moonlight grossed 20m and captured the zeitgeist in an unprecedented way-- it also faced ZERO backlash whatsoever while this movie will be criticized for the older man, younger boy angle.”
Are you high? This isn’t Fox News you dimwit. Ugggh.

ANYWAYS, I’m honestly starting to lower my awards expectations for ‘Detroit,’ with the Summer Release date, It might turn out to be lesser than ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ and WAY less better than Best Picture Winner ‘The Hurt Locker.’ Granted, that film got a Summer Release date. But that film also got a smaller release, It only grossed 49.2 Million while ‘Detroit’ might get a bigger summer release date. Don’t believe me on this? Well, Apparent Awards Magnet ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ got a rich Awards Season Release Date, right smack in the goldmine territory, you can say. I have a feeling if the Studio had full confidence in ‘Detroit’ being a major awards contender, they would release it around that time, not specifically in December, but around that time. I’m still holding onto it though, and if ‘Dunkirk’ receives amazing acclaim; ‘Detroit’ in (nearly) all categories it’s nominated in, will be removed from my predictions in less than 7 days. It’s 50/50 if that changes when the Film comes out and receives above decent reviews. For all the other categories, I’m changing things up a bit and thinking outside the box. I’ve grown kinda “ehhh” on Steve Buscemi, and I’ve really given into Boyega out of spite. ONTO THE PREDICTIONS!

Best Motion Picture of the Year:
Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
Detroit
The Disaster Artist
The Florida Project
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
Lean on Pete
Mother!
The Papers
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Andrew Garfield - Breathe (WINNER)
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman (WINNER)
Brooklyn Prince - The Florida Project
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother!
Chanté Adams - Roxanne Roxanne
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Michael Stulberg - Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
John Boyega - Detroit
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Steve Buscemi - Lean on Pete

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Claire Foy - Breathe (WINNER)
Michelle Pfeiffer - Mother!
Melissa Leo - The Novitiate
Meryl Streep - The Papers
Vicky Krieps - Phantom Thread

Best Achievement in Directing:
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Kathryn Bigelow - Detroit
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Sean Baker - The Florida Project (WINNER)
Jordan Peele - Get Out

Best Original Screenplay:
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch - The Florida Project (WINNER)
Mark Boal - Detroit
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Liz Hannah - The Papers
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay:
James Ivory, Walter Fasano - Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber - The Disaster Artist
Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying
Andrew Haigh - Lean on Pete
Margaret Betts - Novitate

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom - Call Me By Your Name
Hoyte Van Hoytema - Dunkirk
Alexis Zabe - The Florida Project (WINNER)
Matthew Libatique - Mother!

Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread (WINNER)

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk (Winner)
Detroit
The Papers
The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Film Editing:
Dunkirk (Winner)
Detroit
Get Out
The Papers
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
Blade Runner 2049 (Winner)
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049 (Winner)
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling:
Darkest Hour (Winner)
The Mummy (Don't ask; with Universal, It might just fucking happen. "Might.")
Wonder Struck

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
Call Me By Your Name, Sufjan Stevens (WINNER)
Can't predict any other Song for this (for obvious reasons.) Instead, possibly something like 'Coco' will got a nom I suppose.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score):
Dunkirk - Hanz Zimmer
Mother! - Jóhann Jóhannsson, Clint Mansell (WINNER)
Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - John Williams

Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
Cars 3
Coco (WINNER)
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Best Animated Short FIlm, Best Live Action Short Film, Best Documentary Short Subject, Best Documentary Feature, Best Foreign Language Film:
UNPREDICTED
User avatar
ThePianist
Graduate
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:54 am
Location: The American Gardens Building on West 81st Street

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

bizarre wrote: I'd love to know where you're getting your intel for this because stars seem ready to align for both him and Gilroy. Though that new title, sheesh...
I know, that title, my god. Anyways, to answer your question; If we're going by statistics, If Gilroy couldn't produce an Oscar Nomination for Jake Gyllenhaal, how much you want to bet he'll produce one for Washington? Besides that, I just have a gut feeling he won't be able to.

And to answer your second question: 'Call Me By Your Name' and 'The Florida Project.' Both films will definitely be MASSIVE hits at the upcoming fall festivals, you should definitely look into both of them. :wink:
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10031
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Reza »

ThePianist wrote:Also, I'm sorry, but Denzel Washington in 'Roman Israel, Esq' IS NOT GOING TO GET NOMINATED.

Someone had to say it.
Lol
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by bizarre »

I'm rethinking a few small predictions - replacing Darkest Hour with Detroit in Best Picture (the question here is of course whether this will be The King's Speech or, say, The Last King of Scotland - now leaning towards the latter).

I still think Annihilation will hit if it's moved back to this year, but I don't think the characters outside of Portman will fill Oscar-ready archetypes. Some Letterboxd reviewers singled out Gina Rodriguez, though her role is so marginal in the source material (think, the first person to get killed in an Alien vs. Predator type movie) that I think they may just be Jane the Virgin stans trying to roleplay or boost their girl. Jennifer Jason Leigh, however, does have an interesting supporting role but it's still a longshot, so I'm replacing her with another longshot - Allison Williams in Get Out, who has passion behind her and is the focal point of acting nominations talk for a film that certainly qualifies as a phenomenon at this point. On the Darkest Hour side, I'm moving Scott Thomas down too and jumping on the Melissa Leo train. Scott Thomas predictions rest on the assumption that Darkest Hour will be strong enough outside of the Oldman campaign to coast coattail nominees (à la Helena Bonham Carter in 2010) through the precursor season... everyone I know who has read the script says her role is even less substantial than Bonham Carter' was in The King's Speech. The field would have to be weak and Darkest Hour would need to be a juggernaut to make her a sure thing, and both look unlikely at this point, especially with the diverse character-actress talent crowding the category at the moment in what looks to be one of the more interesting races and lineups in Best Supporting Actress since 2007.

So, ending up with:
Hong Chau
Allison Janney
Melissa Leo
* Michelle Pfeiffer
Allison Williams
Post Reply

Return to “90th Predictions and Precursors”