Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Big Magilla
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Big Magilla »

The film has to have a theatrical showing for 7 days in the L.A. area for Oscar consideration. Netflix, based on past performance, will provide that as well as a release in N.Y. at the same time, but that may be all. If they are serious in wanting major Oscar consideration as was accorded Amazon last year, they'll have to do better than that. Time will tell.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

Big Magilla wrote:Yes, Netflix controlling Mudbound is a problem, but hopefully one that can be resolved.
I don't have a lot of hope for them considering their stance throughout the Cannes dispute - the Academy would have to budge first I think if they don't go theatrical with Mudbound. I expect a strong SAG showing, though those two awards bodies are drifting farther apart every year.

Will there be a thread for general Oscar predictions throughout the year unrelated to this predictions game?
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Big Magilla »

Yes, Netflix controlling Mudbound is a problem, but hopefully one that can be resolved.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

Big Magilla wrote:I just added Robbie and Gleeson to my predictions last month but took them both out after that insipid trailer for Goodbye Christopher Robin.

Mudbound looks gorgeous. It could be a breakthrough for its female cinematographer as well as a contender in numerous other categories.

I haven't seen or heard anything to make me think that The Greatest Showman, which has been percolating for seven years, won't be a success. On the other hand, I have no idea what Dan Gilroy's legal drama is all about. Hopefully it will be good, but it's too early for me to tell.
The Gilroy film seems like a Michael Clayton-type character-focused legal thriller with a political edge, but I'm honestly not sure what they're trying to signpost with that bizarre latest name change.

Mudbound looks good but 1) it's Neftlix and I'm not sure what they're planning to do with it release-wise 2) apparently cuts were requested by all potential buyers at Sundance so no idea what will come of that either 3) doesn't seem to be something that people are hugely enthusiastic about even if they all like it 4) if it goes theatrical, Mulligan/Hedlund/Mitchell/Blige aren't exactly box office fire - we'll see if Netflix are smart enough to run a WOM campaign of the kind A24 would have. It is, however, one of the bigger flag bearers along with Get Out (which is certainly a phenomenon - I think it would be smart to do a re-release in campaign season) for a movement of films foregrounding PoC issues in a year scant with them after the historic 2016 race. The new membership will help it I'm sure but Netflix is my biggest question mark.

A Luhrmannesque musical spectacle from the as-far untested protege of Bill Condon of all people seems like a weird thing to succeed in this particular political and economic context, and the screening reports I've seen have been pretty middling, though I usually only pay attention to those when they single out specific cast members (easiest lead to bank on - Gone Baby Gone reports in 2007 being ALL about the then-unknown Ryan, for instance). Here if anyone is getting recognition in that regard it's the Hawaiian actress Keala Settle who plays the bearded woman and apparently has a showstopping number (though even her notices haven't been as enthusiastic as you'd want to predict her confidently).

Screening reports from Downsizing (which has been testing like mad for unclear reasons, though the latest was well-received) and I, Tonya (Coenesque black comedy vs. straight biopic with a great if broad Janney and good but understanded Robbie, says the consensus) are the main fuel for my Chau and Janney predictions. I think Janney makes more sense as a lone-nom-for-film-from-older-character actress (remember back in the day when 4/5 of the nominees would fit this bill?) because she's been such a stalwart and so-well liked without a breakout in a major cinematic work for decades now. As for Chau, hopefully the dearth of good roles for Asian-American and Asian actors will fuel a conversation beneficial to her chances - she also has the largest and most important supporting role in the film, second banana to Damon and though she hasn't been in much from what I've seen she's a very talented comedienne and has a good, light touch in interviews that will suit her well campaigning. This year is very hard to pin down so far and I wouldn't be surprised to see another 2012 with multiple categories 5/5 with past winners.

The trouble with me trying to sort this year out is that so many of the forecasted big players are still pretty up in the air as to what they're actually about/'how' they're what they're about - Detroit's a case study, though the latest promo indicates it focuses solely on the Algiers Motel incident, but then we have Phantom Thread for which I've heard no fewer than four different plot synopses, only one of which would lend credence to my Vicky Krieps prediction, and of course Mother! where the surprise factor is clearly what they're gunning for but gosh, complicates things for Oscar watchers lol. And, as you said, the Gilroy film too.

They say the mainstream film industry reflects political-economic situations like water and it's certainly turbulent this year, lol.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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I just added Robbie and Gleeson to my predictions last month but took them both out after that insipid trailer for Goodbye Christopher Robin.

Mudbound looks gorgeous. It could be a breakthrough for its female cinematographer as well as a contender in numerous other categories.

I haven't seen or heard anything to make me think that The Greatest Showman, which has been percolating for seven years, won't be a success. On the other hand, I have no idea what Dan Gilroy's legal drama is all about. Hopefully it will be good, but it's too early for me to tell.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

Big Magilla wrote:The newly titled Gilroy film is still filming with a projected release date in 2018.

I thought Wonderstruck was pretty much written off after Cannes.
http://deadline.com/2017/06/denzel-wash ... 202111751/
Sony confirmed to be eyeing a late 2017 release for the Gilroy film.

I'm not sure where the logic for pundits' Wonderstruck dismissals comes from - first out the gate in the Cannes lineup, good reviews that will only get better when it releases stateside, only suffered in comparison to Carol's reviews and because of its family-focused genre trappings. Not comparable as films necessarily but No Country for Old Men and Nebraska hardly made waves with their Cannes premieres and only became leading contenders when they hit the fall festivals and had their US releases. Moore was solidly received in a major featured part that ties the film together and could easily become a default pick in what looks like a strange year in Supporting Actress (I'm not really buying Mudbound anymore, have never had confidence in The Greatest Showman and Leo will have a harder time than people expect as the only likely nomination for a film that nobody is particularly passionate about). I can see Wonderstruck do a variation of Hugo's arc, and I would predict it for Pic/Dir/Screenplay even if it comes up empty-handed in the acting categories.

FWIW (and I can't remember how to do spoiler tags on this forum to avoid clutter - advice appreciated) this is my 6-20 in Supporting Actress after my listed predictions:

6 - Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
7 - Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
8 - Margot Robbie (Goodbye Christopher Robin) - though due for a major downgrade after the release of that insipid trailer which was more Miss Potter than Finding Neverland
9 - Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
10 - Julia Roberts (Wonder) - I think this will be a hit and could push Roberts in either Actress category even if it gets nothing else
11 - Nicole Kidman (The Killing of a Sacred Deer)
12 - Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)
13 - Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)
14 - Michelle Williams (The Greatest Showman)
15 - Kirsten Dunst (The Beguiled)
16 - Naomi Watts (The Glass Castle)
17 - Carmen Ejogo (Roman Israel, Esq.)
18 - Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)
19 - Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
20 - Keala Settle (The Greatest Showman)
- with Ellen Burstyn (The Tale), Kate Hudson (Marshall), Rachel McAdams (Disobedience), Valerie Pachner (Radegund if it's released), Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project), Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel) and Allison Williams (Get Out) as no-guts-no-glory spoiler candidates
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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The newly titled Gilroy film is still filming with a projected release date in 2018.

I thought Wonderstruck was pretty much written off after Cannes.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

Final edit. Made the same day as the title change of the Gilroy film from Inner City to "Roman Israel, Esq." which will surely shave a sizeable portion off its box office returns and sounds like a terrible choice on paper. So that gives me pause, but we'll see.
bizarre wrote:Supporting Actor is giving me the biggest headache here. Actress, too - which seemed packed only a few months ago, but so many films are now expected to be pushed ahead (Vox Lux, The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara), have been given odd release dates (Battle of the Sexes, The Current War) or have been hit by some controversy or other (Molly's Game, Detroit). I'm waiting for the supporting cast of The Post to be revealed; a character like Ben Bagdikian might prove a plum role for an actor in that race. I think we'll see some surprise contenders come out of the Venice-Toronto-NYFF woodwork in both categories.

UPDATED & EDITED JUNE 23rd 2017

Best Picture
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros. / Oct. 6 | Producers: Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson, Bud Yorkin & Cynthia Yorkin)
Call Me by Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics / Nov. 24 | Producers: Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Marco Morabito, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears & Rodrigo Teixeira)
Darkest Hour (Focus / Nov. 22 | Producers: Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten & Douglas Urbanski)
WINNER: Downsizing (Paramount / Dec. 22 | Producers: Mark Johnson & Alexander Payne)
Get Out (Universal / Feb. 24 | Producers: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Sean McKittrick & Jordan Peele)
Last Flag Flying (Amazon / Nov. 17 | Producers: Ginger Sledge & John Sloss)
Mother! (Paramount / Oct. 13 | Producers: Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin & Ari Handel)
Roman Israel, Esq. (aka Inner Circle aka Inner City) (Columbia / TBA | Producers: Todd Black, Jennifer Fox & Brian Oliver)
Wonderstruck (Roadside-Amazon / Oct. 20 | Producers: Brian Bell, Pamela Koffler, Frank Murray, John Sloss & Christine Vachon)

Best Director
Dan Gilroy, for Roman Israel, Esq. (aka Inner Circle aka Inner City)
Luca Guadagnino, for Call Me by Your Name
Todd Haynes, for Wonderstruck
WINNER: Alexander Payne, for Downsizing
Denis Villeneuve, for Blade Runner 2049

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, in Last Flag Flying
Matt Damon, in Downsizing
Daniel Day-Lewis, in Phantom Thread
WINNER: Gary Oldman, in Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, in Roman Israel, Esq. (aka Inner Circle aka Inner City)

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, in Molly's Game
Judi Dench, in Victoria and Abdul
Jennifer Lawrence, in Mother!
WINNER: Frances McDormand, in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, in The Papers

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, in The Florida Project
Colin Farrell, in Roman Israel, Esq. (aka Inner Circle aka Inner City)
Laurence Fishburne, in Last Flag Flying
Ben Mendelsohn, in Darkest Hour
WINNER: Michael Stuhlbarg, in Call Me by Your Name

Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, in Downsizing
Allison Janney, in I, Tonya
Julianne Moore, in Wonderstruck
WINNER: Michelle Pfeiffer, in Mother!
Kristin Scott Thomas, in Darkest Hour

Best Adapted Screenplay
WINNER: Call Me by Your Name by Walter Fasano, Luca Guadagnino & James Ivory, from the novel by André Aciman
Last Flag Flying by Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan, from the novel by Ponicsan
Molly's Game by Aaron Sorkin, from the memoir by Molly Bloom
Mudbound by Dee Rees & Virgil Williams, from the novel by Hillary Jordan
Wonderstruck by Brian Selznick, from his novel

Best Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour by Anthony McCarten
WINNER: Downsizing by Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
Get Out by Jordan Peele
Roman Israel, Esq. (aka Inner Circle aka Inner City) by Dan Gilroy
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri by Martin McDonagh

Best Animated Feature
The Breadwinner (GKids / TBA | Producers: Angelina Jolie, Anthony Leo, Tomm Moore, Mimi Polk Gitlin, Andrew Rosen & Paul Young, directed by Nora Twomey)
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (20th Century Fox / Jun. 2 | Producers: Mireille Soria & Mark Swift, directed by David Soren)
WINNER: Coco (Disney / Nov. 22 | Producer: Darla K. Anderson, directed by Lee Unkrich)
Ferdinand (20th Century Fox / Dec. 15 | Producers: Bruce Anderson & Lori Forte, directed by Carlos Saldanha)
Loving Vincent (Distributor TBD / TBA | Producers: Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart & Hugh Welchman, directed by Dorota Kobiela & Hugh Welchman)

WILDCARD CATEGORY: Best Film Editing
Blade Runner 2049 - Joe Walker
Downsizing - Kevin Tent
WINNER: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Get Out - Gregory Plotkin
Wonderstruck - Affonso Gonçalves
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

A lot of people on other forums are predicting Vega. I'm interested to see where she goes, but I'm trying to be realistic about her chances here.

I'm editing my predictions in my post below.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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I can't do these way in advance predictions. Half the film mentioned end up turning out awful and there are always films and performances that aren't on anyones radar that sneak in.

One such is Chilean trans actress Daniela Vega in Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman. If I was trying to pick the actress line-up Vega would be right on top though I doubt she would win. The film is a showcase for her and unlike the trans actresses in Tangerine who were very loud and over-the-top (not to mention hookers), Marina works in a cafe during the day and as a singer at night. It's a restrained moving performance as her character faces day to day discrimination at the hands of authorises and her lover's family after he has passed away. The film is a very worthy follow to Gloria with Pauline Garcia in explicitly failed to earn nominations for Foreign Language Film.

Sony Pictures have the North American (and Australian) rights to the film and I understand that they will be pushing for not only Foreign Language but Best Actress. Both would be very deserved.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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With the cut-off fast approaching - just ten days to go - I've updated my predictions below. For the first time, with the exception of the cartoon category, I actually feel fairly confident that the majority of my predictions will be called on Oscar nominations morning.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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Reza wrote:I'm curious to know what makes you think The Great Showman and Jackman will win. Didn't you also champion him for Les Miz?

I think Oldman will win.

The Academy rarely now ventures into old biddy territory in the best actress category. Voters seem to prefer younger actresses. So Dench will have a hard time although she will be nominated.
I thought Oldman would win for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, even when I wasn't sure he'd even be nominated. Winston Churchill is more of a sure thing with the Golden Globes and SAG. Albert Finney won the former and John Lithgow the latter for playing him on TV. I don't recall predicting a win for Jackman in Les Mis, although I did predict a nomination. Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour was my failed prediction that year.

The Greatest Showman is an original screen musical. The lyrics are by Pasek and Paul, who are on a roll. Oscar may want to give it to a musical this year, having failed to do so last year. They did that with Chicago after Moulin Rouge lost. Why not again?

As for Best Actress, they like to give it to the old gals every once in a while. Dench at 83 would set a new age record for a winner. That do like to break records every now and then. If not her, then 59 year-old Michelle Pfeiffer or soon-to-be 59-year-old Annette Bening would make a good buck-the-trend winner.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (Winner)
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (Winner)

HONORARY AWARDS
Doris Day (Humanitarian)
Max von Sydow
Douglas Trumbull
I'm curious to know what makes you think The Great Showman and Jackman will win. Didn't you also champion him for Les Miz?

I think Oldman will win.

The Academy rarely now ventures into old biddy territory in the best actress category. Voters seem to prefer younger actresses. So Dench will have a hard time although she will be nominated.

I like your choices in the Honorary category. Although it would be nice if Liv Ullmann got it along with von Sydow. Doris IS due though.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

anonymous1980 wrote:Is Phantom Thread really the title of the PTA fashion movie?

BTW, bizarre, don't forget to indicate your winners and you lack a "wild card" category and Animated Feature. Plus the bonus questions! Thanks.
Oh sorry, I wasn't aware this was a contest (bad reading comprehension, haha). I'll go back and read the rules.

Edit: Edited
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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I've updated mine with winner predictions.
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