Oscar Distribution

Sabin
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Re: Oscar Distribution

Postby Sabin » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:49 pm

ARRIVAL -- nothing. Outside shot at Adapted Screenplay. Runner up in Sound Editing.

FENCES -- lock for Viola Davis. Starting to think that Denzel Washington is going to win Best Actor.

HACKSAW RIDGE -- Best Sound Editing. Just like American Sniper and Letters from Iwo Jima, the consolation sound prize.

HELL OR HIGH WATER -- I thought Jeff Bridges had an outside shot at winning the SAG award for Best Supporting Actor. Why not give him a second award? But that doesn't seem to be materializing. Nothing.

HIDDEN FIGURES -- outside shot at Best Adapted Screenplay. I'm not completely sold on Moonlight's grip on that award as it's so clearly a director's movie. Arrival or Hidden Figures could take it in that scenario.

LA LA LAND -- Picture, Director, Actress, Score, Song, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing for sure. Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design likely.

LION -- Maybe an outside shot at Best Adapted Screenplay. Most likely goes home empty-handed.

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA -- for the bulk of the year, it seemed like it had two of the biggest locks of the year. Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay. Now, I think both are coin flips.

MOONLIGHT -- Mahershala Ali will win Best Supporting Actor. I am not sold on its Best Adapted Screenplay choices but support has yet to materialize around another contender as has happened in Best Actor against Casey Affleck.
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anonymous1980
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Oscar Distribution

Postby anonymous1980 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:28 am

How will the Oscars will be distributed among this year's Best Picture nominees? I doubt this will be a year like 2014 where all the Best Picture got to win something. I think only three or four of this year's Best Picture nominees will go home with an award.

Arrival - It's competitive in Adapted Screenplay and the techs. But I think it will go 0 for 8 unless the Academy wants to throw it a Sound Editing bone.

Fences - It's guaranteed at least a Supporting Actress win. Could also win for Best Actor.

Hacksaw Ridge - Competitive in the Sound Mixing (will Kevin O'Connell FINALLY win for this? How many Academy members know he's one of the sound mixers AND are aware that he's had the most nominations without a win?) and Sound Editing (another bone which they could throw it)

Hell or High Water - Most likely going 0 for 4 but an upset in Original Screenplay isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Hidden Figures - Sasha Stone thinks the Academy will not let this one go home empty handed which seems to imply that it could take down "Moonlight" in Adapted Screenplay which I doubt. 0 for 3.

La La Land - Of course, it's guaranteed to win a handful...but how many? Picture, Director, Actress, Production Design, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score and maybe Original Song (that is if the two songs don't split votes and not enough voters want to give Lin-Manuel his EGOT) are slam dunks. That's 8. It could also take Costume Design and Sound Mixing, that's 10. It could be competitive in Original Screenplay and Actor (if they neither want to give Affleck an Oscar or Denzel a third one right now).

Lion - Nope. This is going 0 for 6. It should just be thankful to be invited to the party.

Manchester by the Sea - I could see this winning 2 Oscars, 1 Oscar or 0 Oscars. It only has a legitimate shot in Actor and Original Screenplay.

Moonlight - It's practically guaranteed a Supporting Actor win. It can also win in Adapted.

So La La Land, Fences and Moonlight will most likely win something. Manchester by the Sea could win one or two. Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival will be crossing their fingers for one of the sound categories. Hell or High Water, Lion and Hidden Figures will just have to be satisfied with their nominations


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