SAG Forecast

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:17 am

Oh, I'm not disagreeing that they're being silly. La La Land is my favorite film of the year. I need to watch The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, and a few others again, and a few more for the first time, but nothing has left me in a better mood in years, and nothing has inspired more repeat viewings in years. Every year that goes by, I immerse myself further and further into the industry and I find less and less time to watch films. La La Land isn't perfect but it might be the first time since 1995 that my favorite film of the year will end up winning.
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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:31 pm

Sabin wrote:I'm not disagreeing.


You're not disagreeing with your friends or that they're being silly?

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:17 pm

I'm not disagreeing.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Okri » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:44 pm

Sabin wrote:I have friends that won't watch La La Land because they hate white privilege. These are very woke times.


Your friends are being silly.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:23 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
Sabin wrote:I have friends that won't watch La La Land because they hate white privilege. These are very woke times.


Yeah, I'm definitely hearing a lot of gripes about "white people problems" in both La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, which sort of reads to me as annoyance with the fact that the leads are white, an embodiment of the lamest Republican caricatures of liberals concerned with diversity. (Reducing Manchester in this way is especially galling, given both the level of trauma the characters deal with, as well as the fact that the movie is intrinsically ABOUT a specific white working-class community that breeds a kind of guy like Lee Chandler.)

Tellingly, I think, I have only heard these complaints from friends who are white.


In the National Lampoon show "Lemmings" back in the 70s, the entire second act was a parody of Woodstock, in which a huge group of people had gathered to kill themselves, because anyone who wasn't a black lesbian with a disability didn't deserve to live. Even back that far, this breed of leftist existed as an object of satire, and I totally agree, they completely play into the Trump-ian caricature of liberals being active enemies of the white working class.

I also agree that lumping Casey Affleck in with Polanski is ridiculous. Affleck settled a civil case, and we all know it's often in the best interest of prominent people to settle such cases rather than spend a ton of money only to let themselves get dragged through the mud. But, in this case, because of the overall climate -- with truly abominable cases like the Stanford swimmer fresh in our minds -- people have taken it as license to not only believe every allegation thrown out there by the litigants, but to conflate those alleged incidents with much larger crimes like those of which Polanski or Cosby have been credibly accused. I well understand the drive to give more respect to women's accusations than society has historically offered, but, for some, that seems to extend to believing any woman against any man with no need for evidence. People who take this tack might want to read or watch The Children's Hour sometime.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:50 am

I know that the media was flogging the hell out of the Denzel's never won SAG thing. I'm certain that while the entirety of SAG might not know this fact, a lot of people probably do, or were reminded at regular intervals. I wouldn't even be surprised if Paramount was directly soliciting that kind of attention.

While 3 trophies is rare, I wonder if they'll make Denzel wait for it as they did Meryl or hand it to him to make him the first black actor to achieve that distinction? That's one of those things I could see the Academy doing. However, Affleck has more than paid his dues by now. I see the people complaining about this sexual harassment (not assault or rape) and comparing it to the likes of Nate Parker or Roman Polanski and I just shake my head and tell them they aren't even remotely the same and that race is not the reason. Fame is a far bigger motivator in terms of Hollywood forgiveness than race ever was.

Either way, the fact that Affleck lost the SAG award might help make his chances at the Oscar less, but it's very hard for the Academy to ignore the kind of Oscar run he's made so far. And with BAFTA likely going for him, his trajectory will be rebuilt; however, if BAFTA goes somewhere else, then he might well be toast.
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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:24 am

Sabin wrote:I think this is a really shitty year to have past allegations of sexual harassment. Showing up to awards with a beard and a man-bun like a bro doesn't help. But what really doesn't help is that this is worst year ever to be accused of white privilege. Any other year, his would be the correct way to handle his allegations. People are seeing through his damage control to things that may not even be there. Affleck isn't suffering for the sins of Trump and Parker. His feet are being held to the fire on principle.

I think Casey Affleck would be an even stronger favorite to win if he made a public statement and did the following:

"I can see that people are hurt by my past allegations. I can also see that it is affecting the perception of my film. I am proud of my performance in this film but out of solidarity for sex abuse victims, I will not show up to the Academy awards. If I do win, I would like Kenneth Lonergan, for whom working with is honor enough, to accept on my behalf."


This is nonsense. Firstly, Affleck's appearance is for a role. He himself has remarked that he is embarrassed by it, but he's not the first actor to show up looking less than his best during awards season. Secondly, the Academy with rare exception allows a surrogate to accept for someone since Marlon Brando and Sasheen Littlefeather 44 years ago. Thirdly, what he was accused of is attempting to have sex with those two women, not raping them. The two were in dispute over payment for work they allegedly did on a film. Their story reeks of sour grapes. The out of court settlement was for money supposedly owed them, not to hush up the alleged sexual shenanigans. Fourthly, the protests against him are mostly from morons who can't even put together two sentences. This tirade in a series of tweets was from someone who I thought must be new to the English language, but who turns out to be a 34-year-old successful actress born and raised in Richmond, Virginia:

“Men who sexually harass women 4 OSCAR! Bc good acting performance matters more than humanity, human integrity! Bc poor kid rly needs the help! Boys! BUY ur way out of trouble by settling out of court! Just do a good acting job, thats all that matters! bc Art isn’t about humanity, right? So context matters. Because in acting, human life matters. It’s why art exists. I know it’s just an award but I guess I’m in this career, not for awards, but because the treatment of human life matters to me. So I stand the f**k up for it.”

Her name is Constance Wu. She stars in a TV comedy series called Fresh Off the Boat which may be very good for all I know, I've never seen it, but the title itself could be insulting to Asian-Americans and other immigrants. Her character, like the actress herself, didn't get off any boat. She was born and raised in Washington, D.C. and moved to Orlando, Fla. I guess what I'm saying is people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:24 am

Sabin wrote:I have friends that won't watch La La Land because they hate white privilege. These are very woke times.


Yeah, I'm definitely hearing a lot of gripes about "white people problems" in both La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, which sort of reads to me as annoyance with the fact that the leads are white, an embodiment of the lamest Republican caricatures of liberals concerned with diversity. (Reducing Manchester in this way is especially galling, given both the level of trauma the characters deal with, as well as the fact that the movie is intrinsically ABOUT a specific white working-class community that breeds a kind of guy like Lee Chandler.)

Tellingly, I think, I have only heard these complaints from friends who are white.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby nightwingnova » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:07 am

Disappointed with Hidden Figures' win. Moonlight had the acting ensemble powerhouse, even outpacing Manchester.

I liked Emma Stone, who was very good. But it wasn't a best actress performance - not enough to do, not enough done.

Glad Ali is continuing his run. It's easy for his performance to get lost.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby nightwingnova » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:04 am

This "white privilege" thing doesn't mean anything to me. Both lead characters started out dirt poor.

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote

I have friends that won't watch La La Land because they hate white privilege. These are very woke times.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:38 am

Mister Tee wrote
Washington's win could of course be a reflection on how some people feel about Affleck's film, or reaction to the sexual harassment charges (which are murky, and seem to be taken most seriously by those who don't like him/his performance to begin with). But I don't rule out some people realizing Denzel had never won a SAG prize before and wanting him to get one. Regardless, I end up exactly where Sabin & BJ are on what this does to the Oscar forecast: I'd still view Casey as the likely winner (the fact that Denzel'd be going for that extremely rare third Oscar is big handicap), but it's not a laydown like it was before tonight.

I think this is a really shitty year to have past allegations of sexual harassment. Showing up to awards with a beard and a man-bun like a bro doesn't help. But what really doesn't help is that this is worst year ever to be accused of white privilege. Any other year, his would be the correct way to handle his allegations. People are seeing through his damage control to things that may not even be there. Affleck isn't suffering for the sins of Trump and Parker. His feet are being held to the fire on principle.

I think Casey Affleck would be an even stronger favorite to win if he made a public statement and did the following:

"I can see that people are hurt by my past allegations. I can also see that it is affecting the perception of my film. I am proud of my performance in this film but out of solidarity for sex abuse victims, I will not show up to the Academy awards. If I do win, I would like Kenneth Lonergan, for whom working with is honor enough, to accept on my behalf."

I have friends that won't watch La La Land because they hate white privilege. These are very woke times.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:20 am

Sabin wrote:His Manchester performance is subtle. Massively subtle. Subtle performances don't usually win in this category.

I in fact once heard it expressed as Best Actors are flamboyant, Best Actresses are nurturing -- the Nicholson/Hunt pair from As Good As It Gets maybe the perfect illustration.

To somewhat agree and somewhat disagree with other things said here:

Given that BAFTA went with Cotillard '07 (after Christie had swept Broadcasters/SAG and won her category at the Globes) and Riva in '12, it would have been natural to expect Huppert to follow suit. I think I predicted that a while back myself, till someone pointed out to me, as they did to Sabin, the awkward fact that she's not nominated (for ineligibility, so it's not a strike against her).

Washington's win could of course be a reflection on how some people feel about Affleck's film, or reaction to the sexual harassment charges (which are murky, and seem to be taken most seriously by those who don't like him/his performance to begin with). But I don't rule out some people realizing Denzel had never won a SAG prize before and wanting him to get one. Regardless, I end up exactly where Sabin & BJ are on what this does to the Oscar forecast: I'd still view Casey as the likely winner (the fact that Denzel'd be going for that extremely rare third Oscar is big handicap), but it's not a laydown like it was before tonight.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:16 am

OscarGuy wrote:Elle wasn't eligible at BAFTA, so she can't win there.

I suspect Huppert's lack of visibility in the major remaining events will kill her chances.

I don't know why everyone suddenly thinks Best Actor is a toss-up. Washington had never won a SAG award, that played heavily into his victory. He has an Oscar and the Academy has proven time and again that they know their own history well enough not to necessarily want to over-reward someone. That doesn't mean Denzel isn't a contender, but I think saying the race is suddenly up in the air is a bit dismissive of this SAG-fact.


I'd agree with you half-way. I think the Academy definitely knows Washington already has multiple trophies, and that will be a chief hurdle for him come Oscar time. (Sort of the way I imagine Portman's previous Oscar is keeping her out of the win conversation despite an excellent, totally baity performance.)

But I don't think the vast majority of SAG voters have a clue about whether or not someone has won that prize. (The group I watched the ceremony with, for instance, was shocked when the announcer said this was Washington's FIRST SAG prize.) Anecdotally, among actor friends I know, I think a dislike of Manchester, and revulsion at Affleck's past sexual harassment, as well as genuine enthusiasm for Washington, led many of them to vote for him. Not sure if this will transfer over to the Oscars -- as of now, I'd still lean toward predicting Affleck -- but I think it does at least indicate excitement for Washington that hadn't really made itself clear until tonight, and I think that's an excitement that's something far more than "well, he needs a SAG Award."

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:15 am

Huh, I didn't realize that. Well, we'll see if they go for Natalie Portman, but I still think Emma Stone is going to win.

RE: Denzel Washington
I don't think Best Actor is a toss-up, but it is a race. Casey Affleck has to be considered the favorite, but he has another giant thing working against him beyond his sexual assault allegations, beyond his handling of the allegations, and beyond the fact that it's weird that a "Casey" and an "Affleck" is going to win Best Actor. His Manchester performance is subtle. Massively subtle. Subtle performances don't usually win in this category. The combination of his subtlety and how much of a foregone conclusion his win has become could risk making him seem overrated. It's not that I think it's a toss-up, but rather I've been waiting for Casey Affleck's inevitability to be challenged by a viable contender all season and it just happened.
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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:51 pm

Elle wasn't eligible at BAFTA, so she can't win there.

I suspect Huppert's lack of visibility in the major remaining events will kill her chances.

I don't know why everyone suddenly thinks Best Actor is a toss-up. Washington had never won a SAG award, that played heavily into his victory. He has an Oscar and the Academy has proven time and again that they know their own history well enough not to necessarily want to over-reward someone. That doesn't mean Denzel isn't a contender, but I think saying the race is suddenly up in the air is a bit dismissive of this SAG-fact.
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