Final Oscar Predictions

Reza
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Reza » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:00 am

BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hell or High Water

BEST DIRECTOR
Damian Chazelle – La La Land
Garth David - Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton - Loving
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Arrival
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon - Novturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
Last edited by Reza on Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Sabin
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:40 pm

UPDATED: 01/23/2017

Best Picture
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Original Score
The BFG
Florence Foster Jenkins
Kubo and the Two Strings
La La Land
Moonlight

Best Original Song
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
“City of Stars”, La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It”, Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
“I See a Victory”, Hidden Figures

Best Animated Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Foreign-Language Film
The King’s Choice [Norway]
Land of Mine [Denmark]
A Man Called Ove [Sweden]
The Salesman [Iran]
Toni Erdmann [Germany]

Best Documentary
Gleason
The Ivory Game
OJ Made in America
The 13th
Weiner

Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Silence

Best Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Silence

Best Makeup
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Suicide Squad

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Effects
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Last edited by Sabin on Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Snick's Guy » Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:03 pm

Picture:

1) La La Land
2) Manchester By The Sea
3) Moonlight
4) Arrival
5) Nocturnal Animals
6) Hidden Figures
7) Lion
8) Hell or High Water


Director:

Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Gyllenhall, Nocturnal Animals

Actress:
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams, Arrival

Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman, Lion

Original Screenplay:
La La Land
Hell Or High Water
Manchester By The Sea
Jackie
Captain Fantastic

Adapted Screenplay:
Moonlight
Lion
Hidden Figures
Arrival
Nocturnal Animals
Last edited by Snick's Guy on Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:04 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:25 pm

BEST PICTURE (in order of likelihood)
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Loving
7. Hell or High Water
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hidden Figures

If ten, either Fences, Jackie or Silence.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damian Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Denzel Washington - Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Arrival
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Captain Fantastic
Jackie
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby dws1982 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:16 pm

First and only predictions.

Picture (in order of likelihood)
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester By the Sea
Arrival
Lion
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Fences
Deadpool
(I'd guess this will be an 8 or 9 film lineup, but I wouldn't be shocked with 6; And I do feel dumb for putting Deadpool there when so many similar movies--that were as acclaimed, or more acclaimed--couldn't break the lineup, but you never know.)

Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
(Part of me feels like we could see a surprise and Lonergan gets boxed out, by David McKenzie, I'd guess. I get that Silence isn't the most audience-friendly film and that it was badly managed by Paramount, but I guess I just refuse to believe that Scorsese would be nominated for The Wolf of Wall Street and not this, and plus, I guess passion projects might count for something.)

Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
Denzel Washington, Fences
(Chris Pine is the anchor of one of the movies that most Oscar voters will have definitely seen already. I'll probably be wrong, but why not go with it? There are usually some surprises and I feel like he's in as good a position to be the surprise as anyone.)

Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
(Honestly, if I were ranking them in order of likelihood of the nomination, I think Portman would be running fifth here. But looking at the competition, you've got Negga in a movie that came and went, Bening in a movie that's been handled worse than Silence, Blunt in a ridiculous potboiler, and Chastain in a bomb. I'd probably put Taraji Henson 6th, and it wouldn't surprise me if she made it.)

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
(Hard to see Nocturnal Animals not getting something, so I think is as likely as anything. Dumbest thing I heard this week was some podcast where they said that despite losing the Globe, Ali was still "very much a lock" to win the Oscar. Yes, he's won the most awards, and he's the frontrunner, but come on: Not every category is nailed down in early January, and maybe this is one that isn't. Don't understand this obsession that some have with making sure these Oscar races are over as soon as possible.)

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
(Hate to put down the same five as everyone else, but I just don't think Janelle Monae has enough to do in Hidden Figures to pull off a surprise. Don't really see anyone else making a play for a spot.)

Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester By the Sea
Zootopia

Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:10 pm

Using anonymous' astute assertion


  • How about a second Moonlight actor? Trevante Rhodes and Andre Holland seem like the more likely possibilities, being the emotional lynchpin and the most famous of the remaining performers.
  • FilmFan mentions Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures and the film is doing gangbusters at the box office - a 10% week to week drop is insane.
  • Ben Foster in HOHW? I know that the film seems to be losing a little bit more steam than the internet anticipated, but he's been around a while.

But, honestly, in leading actor it seems like five-into-three (with Affleck and Washington so far ahead of the rest) and actress seems like five are fighting for one slot.

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:51 pm

The past five years has had at least one acting nominee who didn't have a televised nomination (GG, SAG, BAFTA)...there doesn't seem to be one this year?

My hunch -- Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby mlrg » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:22 am

Ralph Fiennes in A Bigger Splash would also be a nice surprise. Probably the most underrated actor working today.

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:35 am

At this point, I think anything would be considered shocking other than The Birth of a Nation showing up in Best Picture, Actor, Director and/or Screenplay.
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby ITALIANO » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:56 am

Sabin wrote:But right now I think the best chance for an upset in Best Actor is Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals. He's in the club. He probably just barely missed a nomination for Nightcrawler, he's consistently excellent, he got a BAFTA, and he has enough good scenes to warrant a nomination.



And he's very good in that movie. But I think it could only happen if Nocturnal Animals is as appreciated by the Academy as by the British Academy - which I find unlikely. Plus, if he gets in the Best Actor race for that movie, it means that at least one of its showy supporting actors will be nominated too - they are the scene stealers after all.

Eye in the Sky isn't terrible and Helen Mirren has the kind of "big" (though certainly supporting), "dominating" (in more ways than one) role which, combined with respect for the performer, sometimes leads to a nomination. But the movie is really too obscure (nobody seems to have seen it), and I expected her to be nominated AT LEAST at the BAFTAs in order to vaguely stay in the race.

And it's sad, but yes, nowadays one can only try to predict "shock" nominations - because otherwise all the names are just so easy at this point.

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:48 pm

flipp525 wrote:It seems like everyone has the exact same acting nominees. Not that I've posted predictions of my own, but you know that's not how the Academy works. There will be at least one shocker nomination. I'd die for something out-of-the-blue (like what if they somehow resurrected Linda Emond or Tracy Letts?). Both Shannon and Taylor-Johnson in Supporting Actor? Even Viola Davis in Lead. Anything.

It's hard to separate bold from wishful thinking. But I would love it if Rebecca Hall would shock everyone and end up in the Best Actress race for her disturbing and haunting performance in Christine .

Things just seem a tad too safe.


I just saw Christine last night. I'd love for Rebecca Hall to show up in Best Actress.

Yeah, every year there seems to be at least one or two "SHOCKER" nominees and one or two contenders who have most or even all of the key precursors get shockingly left out. "Shocker", seemingly out of the blue nominees seem to have at least one or both of these qualities:

a.) It's a beloved (usually previously) nominated veteran performer.
b.) It's a coattail nomination from a Acting or Picture front-runner.

I would be on the lookout for contenders that have one or both of these qualities.

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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Greg » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:52 pm

flipp525 wrote:There will be at least one shocker nomination. I'd die for something out-of-the-blue (like what if they somehow resurrected Linda Edmund or Tracy Letts?). Both Shannon and Taylor-Johnson in Supporting Actor? Even Viola Davis in Lead. Anything.


How about a Best Director nomination for Theodore Melfi?
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:43 pm

flipp525 wrote
It seems like everyone has the exact same acting nominees. Not that I've posted predictions of my own, but you know that's not how the Academy works. There will be at least one shocker nomination. I'd die for something out-of-the-blue (like what if they somehow resurrected Linda Edmund or Tracy Letts?). Both Shannon and Taylor-Johnson in Supporting Actor? Even Viola Davis in Lead. Anything.

I agree. This is suspicious. I've actually thought a little bit about Viola Davis being nominated for lead...because she is a lead. That would transform Best Actress into something fiercely competitive.

Best Actor especially looks ripe for upset. I'm not confident about Andrew Garfield's chances. The only thing holding me back is I just have no idea who could fill that spot, but a dark horse could be Dev Patel for Lion or Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins. But right now I think the best chance for an upset in Best Actor is Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals. He's in the club. He probably just barely missed a nomination for Nightcrawler, he's consistently excellent, he got a BAFTA, and he has enough good scenes to warrant a nomination.

If we're looking at someone who hasn't picked up a single citation as far as I can see, maybe Kevin Costner can get in for Hidden Figures. He's pretty well-liked and Hidden Figures is a big hit. I'm not predicting Lucas Hedges currently because I just have this hunch that while Manchester by the Sea is locked in, it's primarily being seen as a vehicle for Casey Affleck and I'm just not sure that Academy voters get that Lucas Hedges is acting.

For Best Supporting Actress...I really don't know who could get in. Molly Shannon for Other People? It doesn't feel like 20th Century Women is picking up. I've barely heard of Eye in the Sky but others seem to be predicting it. Could Janelle Monae join Octavia Spencer?
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:30 pm

It seems like everyone has the exact same acting nominees. Not that I've posted predictions of my own, but you know that's not how the Academy works. There will be at least one shocker nomination. I'd die for something out-of-the-blue (like what if they somehow resurrected Linda Emond or Tracy Letts?). Both Shannon and Taylor-Johnson in Supporting Actor? Even Viola Davis in Lead. Anything.

It's hard to separate bold from wishful thinking. But I would love it if Rebecca Hall would shock everyone and end up in the Best Actress race for her disturbing and haunting performance in Christine .

Things just seem a tad too safe.
Last edited by flipp525 on Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Final Oscar Predictions

Postby nightwingnova » Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:53 pm

My only major struggle over a prediction was whether Hacksaw Ridge would have enough support to break through. I decided "no" based on its unremarkable record so far. Unless the Academy changed its rules for Best Picture nominations.


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