Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Mister Tee wrote:I'd forgotten till seeing it mentioned elsewhere, but the DGA has a first-time director category now, which, last year, they filled with some pretty interesting choices. I presume The Witch would be a strong candidate this time, but Mark Harris notes that this might be where Tim Miller/Deadpool makes his showing. Harris also wonders if forgotten man Nate Parker might turn up, in something like a pity vote.

Nate Parker hardly deserves even the pity vote. The film was nothing to right home about save for it's cinematography.

I'd forgotten till seeing it mentioned elsewhere, but the DGA has a first-time director category now, which, last year, they filled with some pretty interesting choices. I presume The Witch would be a strong candidate this time, but Mark Harris notes that this might be where Tim Miller/Deadpool makes his showing. Harris also wonders if forgotten man Nate Parker might turn up, in something like a pity vote.

Sonic Youth wrote:Damien Chazelle
Tom Ford
Barry Jenkins
David Mackenzie
Kenneth Lonnergan

Ditto

The thing to remember is, this is not a prediction for directing branch nominees, where a wild card (like Room last year, or The Tree of Life in '11) can slip in. This is more likely to reflect the consensus five for best picture under the old system, and on that score I'd have to side with BJ's slate. (I'd also find that group the least dreary possible.)

Another thing to remember: veterans who didn't seem to have any traction with other guilds have sometimes made their claim at DGA -- Spielberg with Munich in '05, Scorsese with Wolf of Wall Street three years ago.

It's also worth noting that the directing branch almost never has a slate of all first-timers. Post-1929, only three years have featured all newbies: 1948, 1995 and 1997. This is perhaps the biggest thing Scorsese or Gibson have going for them.

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Damien Chazelle
Tom Ford
Barry Jenkins
David Mackenzie
Kenneth Lonnergan

Thinking about changing my fifth choice to Garth Davis after reading his IMDB profile:

Originally a fine artist and designer, Garth Davis is an internationally renowned commercials director. He won gold at the London International Award show, the prized Gold Lion at Cannes, and in 2010 received a finalist nomination from the DGA (Directors Guild of America) for best commercials director.

In 2012 Garth co-directed a chilling six hour mini-series with Jane Campion (The Piano) titled "Top of the Lake." The series was produced by Academy Award® winners Emile Sherman and Iain Canning (The King's Speech, Shame) of See-Saw Films, and Philippa Campbell (Black Sheep) of Escapade Pictures. Co-produced by BBC2 and the Sundance Channel, it stars Elisabeth Moss, Peter Mullan, David Wenham and Holly Hunter. Garth received BAFTA, AACTA and Emmy® nominations for his work on the series.

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

They've nominated people for less "cinematic" fare than Fences, so it is possible. I think they will be content thinking he'll likely get another acting nomination, though. I think Melfi will be the somewhat surprising entry here, considering the growing popularity of Hidden Figures. Or it could be Tom Ford. Villeneuve has not been loved by Oscar so far, but maybe.

Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, MacKenzie, Villeneuve

I'm gonna go with:

Denis Villenueve, "Arrival"
Mel Gibson, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Damien Chazelle, "La La Land"
Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"
Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"

I'm thinking Mackenzie for the fifth slot, but neither Gibson, Ford, Larrain or Scorsese would surprise me.

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

And then what are we giving the fifth spot? A few weeks ago, Pablo Larrain and Martin Scorsese might've been my choice but their films are not crossing over, and Clint Eastwood is out of the picture. I think we can cross them out. After seeing Fences, I just have a hard time imagining that the director's branch will laud Denzel Washington's work. I think Jeff Nichols has faded for Loving as well, at least as a director.

That leaves David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water, Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures, Garth Davis for Lion, Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, and (wait for it) Tim Miller for Deadpool. Don't worry! I'm crossing him out. Tim Miller isn't getting in. Davis and Melfi seem pretty anonymous in this race, as does David Mackenzie. I think Hell or High Water is going to be considered a Taylor Sheridan film. That leaves two contenders who make me break out in hives: Mel Gibson and Tom Ford. I think the main question is whether there are more people in the director's branch that have worked with Mel Gibson the director AND actor who want to see him succeed or those who don't and would send their support elsewhere. To whom then?

So, Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge.