PGA Nominations

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:22 pm

Sabin wrote:SAG really just has one opportunity to vote for La La Land, and I don't see them passing that up. Unless of course they choose Gosling as well as Emma Stone. At this point, I think it's likelier that both of them win than neither.

Dealt with this and other matters in the new SAG Forecast thread.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:27 pm

SAG really just has one opportunity to vote for La La Land, and I don't see them passing that up. Unless of course they choose Gosling as well as Emma Stone. At this point, I think it's likelier that both of them win than neither.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:26 pm

SAG is our only hope of throwing a monkey wrench into the rubber-stamping. I don't expect upsets in Best Actor, Supporting Actor or Supporting Actress, but Best Actress could still surprise.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:14 pm

So obvious it apparently hasn't struck anyone else as necessary to post, but, for the record, La La Land is our winner.

And Zootopia/OJ in the other Oscar categories. So, predictability is being achieved almost across the board.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:09 pm

Mad Max isn't even close to a fair comparison. Mad Max ran the table through the precursors. Other than a couple of other mentions, Deadpool is a non-entity. Skyfall had more going for it than Deadpool does.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:12 pm

2016 has shown itself to be a year when all precedent went out the window, so I guess a Best Picture nomination for Deadpool would hardly be the most insane thing to happen this year.

But I keep coming back to the stat I've pointed out in other years, that Marvel movies have consistently under-performed down ballot, in categories where you'd assume they might have a chance. (I know, Deadpool isn't in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but as far as Oscar voters are concerned, it's a Marvel superhero movie just like any other). If it's such an uphill battle for these things to get nominations in the Sound categories, Best Picture seems like a huge stretch.

Of course, there was a time when I thought a Mad Max Best Picture nomination was bananas, and I clearly ate crow on that one.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby criddic3 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:53 am

anonymous1980 wrote:I liked Deadpool. But if the Academy absolutely HAD to nominate a superhero movie this year, I'd rather it be Captain America: Civil War.


Captain America: Civil War is a fun movie, but it feels just like every other Marvel movie, particularly the Avengers stories that preceded it. That puts it at a distinct disadvantage. Deadpool by contrast seems different, fresher, newer. I don't know about Best Picture, but it certainly stands out among this year's action fare.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby anonymous1980 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:45 am

I looked it up. Every PGA nominee got at least one Oscar nomination. So Deadpool will probably get that Makeup nomination.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:35 am

Working against Deadpool:

Popular films that were nominated at PGA but failed to make the Oscar list:
Star Trek - 95% Fresh
Skyfall - 93% Fresh
Gone Girl - 88% Fresh
The Town - 94% Fresh
Straight Outta Compton - 87% Fresh

All of these had higher RT scores than Deadpool's 84% Fresh. They were all solid to huge moneymakers.

The Academy just does not embrace these the way we believe they should. The category already has some strong box office performers on the list. Hidden Figures is doing amazingly well, La La land is surging, and I can see both topping $100 million easy. Arrival is almost there.

It isn't like this isn't a list of relatively popular films, all of which are more appealing to the average Academy voter than something like Deadpool. I'll be shocked if the film, which has only one other real shot at an Oscar nomination (Best Makeup), were to score a Best Picture nomination. Super box office successes don't get nominations based on a single other potential nomination.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:26 pm

I liked Deadpool. I think it's the best of the slew of R-rated violent, darkly comedic, somewhat snarky/meta superhero/comic book movie (the others being the Kick-Ass movies and Kingsman). But if the Academy absolutely HAD to nominate a superhero movie this year, I'd rather it be Captain America: Civil War.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby criddic3 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:39 pm

A Deadpool nomination at the Oscars would definitely be the talk of nomination week. Especially considering they passed on Star Trek, Guardians of the Galaxy and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Star Trek also landed a PGA nod, but the Academy ignored it. This group seems much more open to genre films than the Academy is, which makes the expansion of Best Picture a missed opportunity in some ways. Nominating popular fare would seemingly help the Academy draw younger viewers to the telecast while also keeping them relevant to the culture.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:30 pm

Rather than posting my assorted thoughts on what this means or what's up next, I'll just say 1) yes, Deadpool can be nominated for Best Picture, and 2) I kinda hope it does.

My reasons for hoping that Deadpool gets nominated is...well...I like it more than Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Loving, Lion, Nocturnal Animals and the list keeps going...so fuck it? Why not? Isn't this why they expanded their roster in the first place? To nominate popular movies that audiences and critics enjoyed? Deadpool is trendsetter (in its own way) like The Dark Knight. I'm 100% in favor of reducing the lineup to five, but until they do, fuck it.

Can it get nominated? Sure. I don't think it's likely, but Deadpool has one advantage. It stands out from the crowd. For the most part, there are three big films around which support has galvanized (La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) and Arrival has probably joined that crowd. Then there is a slew of films that tend to blend together in my mind at least as having roughly the same level of support and identity. The closest comparison would be Guardians of the Galaxy, but I would argue that Deadpool is in a much stronger position with precursors (nominations from the PGA, WGA, and Golden Globes), with the industry (it's a trendsetter and a star vehicle), and competition (the lower-tiered competition in 2014 were American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Selma, and Whiplash). Right now I'm not betting on it getting in but could it happen? Sure.
“This is something, as long as we live in a world where something means anything. I’m not sure we do anymore. It seems serious, but do we live in a world devoid of consequences now? This seems like a seismic event, but it might be nothing.” John Oliver

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby mlrg » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:35 pm

Take out Deadpool and Fences and we have our best picture lineup.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:37 pm

In most years since the Best Picture expansion, Oscar has found at least one seemingly artier film -- A Serious Man, Winter's Bone, The Tree of Life, Amour, Selma, Room -- to swap in for PGA contenders. (2013 is the only year you couldn't make that claim, unless you think Philomena is a lot hipper than I do, and a lot of the nominees that year were pretty hip already.)

But it's tricky to imagine what movie that would be this year. Jackie probably comes the closest -- its prize haul so far is similar to Winter's Bone (Globe/SAG acting nods, and a bunch of Indie Spirit citations) -- but for the kind of movie it is, it seems ominous it hasn't done better. Loving seems like it would simply be a lateral move. Silence seems to have disappeared completely. And then I guess there's always Nocturnal Animals hanging around like a cockroach to terrify me, but I still seriously doubt Oscar would go that far.

There's also simply the possibility that, with so many voters picking La La/Moonlight/Manchester up top, that a lot of the second-tier efforts just don't excite people enough to pass the threshold for nomination, and we have fewer than the typical 8-9 nominees.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:29 pm

As snooze-inducing as predicted. This Most Manly Guild (last year I believe Brooklyn was the only female protagonist film they nominated) was bound to be the strongest turf for Deadpool and Hacksaw Ridge. Not sure how Hidden Figures slipped by them, unless it was nostalgia for the Manly Space Program. And of course Arrival/La La are too strong as best picture candidates for them not to pick.

Anyway...La La Land wins. Next.


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