Being that there is zero overlap in this voting bloc with Academy Awards, I suppose the most you can say about the Golden Globes is: "sometimes they influence the nominees." But there are winners.
1. LA LA LAND
To be honest, I'd rather cite somebody or something else here. La La Land is going to win Best Picture and a lot of other Oscars. It's a done deal. But when something is the biggest winner of all time, it'd be disingenuous not to honor it thusly. It won seven for seven without the advantage of "Best New Star." And it did so basically in every category it was eligible for. Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Screenplay, Score, and Song. The only other category it could've been up for is Best Supporting Actor, John Legend.
2. ISABELLE HUPPERT
I just don't think an actor can win the Oscar without a SAG award. On the other hand, Huppert is now more firmly ahead of Emmanuel Riva and Charlotte Rampling with this win and she's doing so in a very competitive year. A career win might still be out of reach but her career nomination seems very likely especially with that charming speech.
3. AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON
To me, last year's Best Supporting Actor field was the least predictable of my lifetime. That looks like a cakewalk compared to this one. Winning a Golden Globe is visibility, and with his win Aaron Taylor-Johnson just went from "Why is he nominated instead of Michael Shannon?" to "Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be nominated?" That's a leg-up.
Speaking of a leg-up, there is no real front-runner in the Best Animated Feature realm. The Golden Globe for Best Animated Film has existed for ten years and it has overlapped with the Oscar seven times. They were wrong about Cars, The Adventures of Tintin, and How to Train Your Dragon 2. I doubt there's much a thread here and the race is still anyone's guess but Zootopia had a good night: they won a major award over Moana and Kubo and they made the public case that this garantuan hit also has something on its mind.
Also, I haven't done the math but I'm guessing Animated Features had their biggest year to date this year. Worldwide, Finding Dory, Zootopia, The Secret Life of Pets, and Moana alone made almost three and a half billion dollars worldwide, which doesn't even include Sing, Ice Age: Collision Course, The Angry Birds Movie, Trolls, and Storks.
5. JUSTIN HURWITZ
Sure, Damien Chazelle is some kind of wizard for winning Best Screenplay for a musical, which is the first time that's happened. It's now possible that Hurwitz beats Kenneth Lonergan for the Oscar. But I think a bigger winner is Justin Hurwitz winning Best Original Score and Song. Other years, voters might say "Eh, just throw him an Oscar for Song." Last night, Hurwitz separated the two as individual achievements -- which they are. Musicals are just not likely to win for their musical scores in these existing categories. La La Land isn't just likely for a Best Score nomination, it now has a foothold in as the front-runner. Additionally, Lin-Manuel Miranda's "How Far I'll Go" was always a likelier bet at the Hollywood Foreign Press, where he came up short.
6. FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
How many people popped in their screener at the last minute thanks to Meryl Streep's speech?
(For the record: didn't like Meryl Streep's speech.)
7. CASEY AFFLECK'S LEGAL TEAM
At no point did he thank his legal team. And he should. They've done masterful work. The strangest moment of the night was when Brie Larson looked like she was presenting the Golden Globe to Old Nick.
1. NATALIE PORTMAN
We can't say that Jackie is done until the DGA and the PGA weigh in. It's certainly possible that it plays into both guilds, Natalie Portman wins the SAG, and the rest is history. But right now, that doesn't seem likely. Sure, Emma Stone had less competition in her category but A) she basically dedicated to this award to the Screen Actor's Guild, who B) have really only one opportunity to vote for La La Land on their ballot and that is her. It's possible her chances of winning are inflated and it's possible after Academy members check off La La Land so many times they'll just want to move on, but I don't think so. Amy Adams and Natalie Portman not winning last night was good for Emma Stone.
2. KENNETH LONERGAN & MANCHESTER BY THE SEA AS ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VEHICLE FOR CASEY AFFLECK
The Golden Globes don't always choose the best written screenplays. They pick a weird combination of "most written" and "most written by a rock star." Django Unchained, Her, Birdman, Steve Jobs. Sure, this doesn't indicate that Lonergan is going to lose the Academy Award, but the Critic's Choice also prophetically tied Manchester by the Sea with La La Land for Best Original Screenplay. There's a chance Kenneth Lonergan's greatest screenwriting achievement will be seen as writing a part for Casey (or Matt).
3. LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA
Hard to feel too bad for the guy.
4. HACKSAW RIDGE, HELL OR HIGH WATER, LION, & 20TH CENTURY WOMEN
They just tied with Deadpool at the Golden Globes.
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
MAHERSHALA ALI & MOONLIGHT
La La Land is most likely going to win the Oscar but it's pretty clear Moonlight is next in line, not by virtue of over-performing at the Golden Globes but by virtue of Manchester by the Sea under-performing. Even its producer seemed surprised to be up there. And the one thing Aaron Taylor-Johnson's win really did isn't knocking Mahershala Ali out of the front-runner position but just denying Moonlight a chance to win for a long time.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver