Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

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Mister Tee wrote:I'm beginning to be sorry we ever started this 3-points-for-correct-with-no-runner-up system. We all discovered pretty early that whatever you gain in having a back-up choice is washed away by what you lose in getting only 2 points rather than 3 for your good picks, and people are predicting accordingly. But simply listing winners with no indication of how certain/uncertain we are gives no real window into how people are thinking about the races.

Well, I for one, base my runner-up selections on probability of upset of which I see just the one for supporting actress being particularly strong and maybe best picture-drama, actress-drama and animated feature, three categories in which I didn't select a runner-up. However, the concern over contest points can easily be solved making it 3 points for a correct 1st place prediction, 2 for a correct 1st runner-up prediction and 1 point for a 2nd runner-up prediction with no penalty. Supporting actress is also the only category in which I would have a second runner-up this year.

I'm beginning to be sorry we ever started this 3-points-for-correct-with-no-runner-up system. We all discovered pretty early that whatever you gain in having a back-up choice is washed away by what you lose in getting only 2 points rather than 3 for your good picks, and people are predicting accordingly. But simply listing winners with no indication of how certain/uncertain we are gives no real window into how people are thinking about the races.

So, I'll briefly share mine: No one is unaware of the favorites-template out there, which leaves only the Manchester/Moonlight face-off in Dramatic Film as anything like a coin flip. The question is, will the HFPA go lazily with that template -- as the Broadcasters did (with the exception of Portman, where they had to make a choice the Globers don't) -- or will they take a what-the-hell attitude and offer some surprises? (As they have at times in recent years -- Lawrence in Hustle, Grand Budapest over Birdman.) I think lead drama actress (where even Amy Adams isn't totally impossible) and supporting actress (where Viola, never a favorite with this group, might face resistance from a group allegedly sour on Fences) offer the best chance for such upsets. And song or animated feature are areas where the Globes have frequently dissented from the over-riding choice.

Best Drama: Manchester by the Sea
(ru: Moonlight)
Best Comedy/Musical: La La Land
Best Film Drama Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Best Film Drama Actress: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
(ru: Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor: Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Best Film Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
(ru: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Best Film Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)
(ru: Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Best Film Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
(ru: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Best Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Best Animated Film: Kubo and the Two Strings
Best Foreign Language Film: Elle
Best Film Score: La La Land
Best Film Song: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”

Standing ovations: 4

Picture (Drama): Moonlight
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actress (Drama): Amy Adams
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Emma Stone
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: "City of Stars", La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Foreign Language Film: Elle

Standing Ovations: 5

Picture Drama: Moonlight
Picture Comedy: La La Land
Actress (Drama): Isabelle Huppert
Actor (Drama): Denzel Washington
Actress (Comedy): Emma Stone
Actor (Comedy): Ryan Gosling
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Director: Mel Gibson
Screenplay: Moonlight
Animated: Moana
Foreign Film: Elle
Score: La La Land
Song: La La Land

Standing Ovations: 4

Picture (Drama): Moonlight
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle

Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Emma Stone
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis

Screenplay: Moonlight
Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: "City of Stars", La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Foreign Language Film: Elle

Standing Ovations: 3

Picture Drama: Lion
Picture Comedy: La La Land
Actress (Drama): Isabelle Huppert
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actress (Comedy): Emma Stone
Actor (Comedy): Ryan Gosling
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Director: Damien Chazelle
Screenplay: La La Land (Manchester By The Sea)
Animated: Kubo and the Two Strings
Foreign Film: Elle
Score: La La Land
Song: Moana (La La Land)

Standing Ovations: 2

Greg wrote
And two of those were in now-defunct acting debut categories.

Sure. If you want to exclude defunct categories, then Midnight Express would've won four and Gandhi would've won three -- although I feel as though its win for Best Foreign Film would've translated over to a Best Dramatic Picture win. Also, One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest, the only other film I can think of that won six Golden Globes wouldn't have won an award for Brad Dourif for Acting Debut Male. Unless he would end up winning the Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe, that film's total would go down to five as well. So if La La Land wins six Golden Globes, you could make the argument that it would be the biggest winner in the history of the Golden Globes.

Sabin wrote:The last time a movie won six was Midnight Express.

And two of those were in now-defunct acting debut categories.

I'm not sure if this is something worth considering but if La La Land wins more than four Golden Globes (as most are predicting) it will be the first film to do so in twenty-four years, I think, since Gandhi. The last time a movie won six was Midnight in Express. For the most part, films tends to cap off at three or four wins.

If there's a movie to buck that trend, I think it could be La La Land. With the exception of Best Screenplay, it certainly seems in the running for six of its seven nominations. But winning five or six would be a fairly historic night.

Picture Drama: Moonlight
Picture Comedy: La La Land
Actress (Drama): Isabelle Huppert
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actress (Comedy): Emma Stone
Actor (Comedy): Ryan Gosling
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Director: Damien Chazelle
Screenplay: Manchester By The Sea (Moonlight)
Animated: Zootopia
Foreign Film: Toni Erdmann
Score: La La Land
Song: La La Land

Standing Ovations: 3

Picture (Drama): Manchester by the Sea
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actor ((Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling
Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Emma Stone
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann
Animated Feature: Zootopia (ru: Kubo and the Two Strings)
Original Song: "City of Stars," La La Land
Original Score: La La Land

Standing Ovations: 3

Picture (Drama): Moonlight
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Foreign Language Film: Elle
Animated Feature: Zootopia (Moana)
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land (Gibson)
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman, Jackie
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Emma Stone, La La Land
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Original Song: “How Far I'll Go"
Original Score: La La Land

Standing ovation: 4

Picture (Drama): Moonlight
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling
Actress (Drama): Isabelle Huppert
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Emma Stone
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Screenplay: Moonlight
Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann
Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings
Original Song: “City of Stars”, La La Land
Original Score: La La Land

Standing Ovation 3: 1 for Meryl Streep plus 2 more

Picture (Drama): Manchester by the Sea
Picture (Comedy/Musical): La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle
Actor (Drama): Casey Affleck
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Ryan Gosling
Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams
Screenplay: Moonlight
Foreign Language Film: Elle
Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings
Original Song: “City of Stars”, La La Land
Original Score: La La Land

Standing Ovations: 4