SAG Nominations

Mister Tee
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

Since I highlighted La La's lack of qualification for the Cast category, I can hardly call myself shocked by its omission, but I did think it was so beloved it would overcome the hurdle and get in anyway. Obviously we'll hear a lot about "not since Braveheart", but that's about as relevant here as Birdman not getting an Editing nod at the Oscar: specific cases change rules.

By the way, stupidest response to this is from Scott Feinberg (whose headline actually implies SAG is "denying the reality of the awards season narrative" -- a narrative he and his cohorts desperately try to create): he says SAG has nominated essentially two-hander films in the past, citing Dallas Buyers' Club, The Theory of Everything and Black Swan -- making one wonder if he's ever seen those films (he's certainly forgotten, among others, Jennifer Garner, Emily Watson and/or Mila Kunis/Barbara Hershey).

Fences and even Hidden Figures are SAG Ensemble type nominees which might or might not eke out best picture nominations from this boost. And Holy Diversity, Batman -- along with Moonlight, this makes three of the five nominees African-American-dominated (along with six non-Caucasian individual nominees). I was perversely happy to see Hell or High Water omitted -- I'd begun to worry it was one of those fairly good movies that were wildly inflated by awards bodies (people have even been suggesting it for best director). This puts a bit of cold water on the idea.

The best actor slate could repeat at AMPAS, though only Affleck/Washington/Gosling seem certain. Hanks seems weaker, having failed on his more natural turf. Something to recall: Denzel Washington has never won at SAG (Glory & Malcolm X preceded the start of the awards, and Hurricane and Training Day failed to repeat the trophies from HFPA and AMPAS). It might give him an edge here that has no carry-over to the Oscars.

Amy Adams' last two Oscar nods were not matched at SAG, so this makes her stronger -- indeed, probably third after Portman/Stone in this tough derby. I said yesterday, I had no expectation Huppert would get cited here, and I view her as no less strong for an Oscar mention. Blunt seems a classic SAG-only, and Streep is 50/50 -- she could repeat, or fall to Bening/Negga. Though the latter's film you would have thought catnip to the generally sentimental SAG crowd; that they resisted entirely may be bad news for the film.

Again glad to see hammy Ben Foster left off. Also happy to see Lucas Hedges here, though he faces the hurdle of AMPAS' odd aversion to adolescent performances (though I believe he's actually 20, his character could cause him the same fate as Shailene Woodley/Andrew Garfield). Hugh Grant's category fraud may work for him in a year when no one much cares about the category beyond Ali.

Supporting actress could replicate at AMPAS, though it's worth noting that nominations are late-ish this year -- January 24th, a week or so later than last year. I point this out because it strikes me that when AMPAS takes more time -- as it did in '12 and '13 -- it tends to go more interesting directions, not quite follow the template. Some of those late-breaking efforts may still have a chance.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Snick's Guy »

Streep is showing surprising strength - I think she is going to land the 5th spot.

My predictions for Best Actress:

Stone
Portman
Huppert
Adams
Streep
Big Magilla
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

I must have gotten my dates mixed up. I thought these were going to be announced tomorrow.

What I'm not surprised about:

No Isabelle Huppert, Greta Gerwig; La La Land in ensemble (there ain't one); Rogue One in Stunts (not screened for SAG)

What I'm most surprised about:

Lack of love for Annette Bening, Ruth Neggga, Joel Edgerton, Michael Shannon
Sabin
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Sabin, that was, like, my first post on the subject of Best Actress this season!
But that's how thoughtful you are! Even when it's your first post, it's just too much. I was paying you a compliment, dawg. :)


Other scattered observations...

IT WAS A GOOD DAY FOR...

Holy cow, it was a good day for Captain Fantastic. Who on Earth saw that coming? A nomination for Viggo looks likely, and while a Best Picture nomination probably isn't coming, who knows? Maybe a Best Original Screenplay nomination.I'm starting to think that if you want to launch your career far and fast, just write an indie drama for a leading male who hasn't won an Oscar yet.

Emma Stone. It's hard to imagine La La Land going home empty-handed from the Screen Actor's Guild Awards and she's their one chance to honor the film.

Diversity. Once again, I ask: is Best Supporting Actress going to be the first category where there are more women of color than white?

Hidden Figures. Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Song seem within grasp. Also, big shout out to my bud Glen who plays Glenn!

Fences. This film really need a good day and it did about as well as it could've. While the race is most likely between Manchester and Moonlight...who knows?

Emily Blunt. I mean, a good day is a good day.

Florence Foster Jenkins. While it didn't get an Ensemble nomination, Meryl Streep's nomination over Annette Bening and Isabelle Huppert puts her strongly in the race. Even better news for Hugh Grant, who didn't have a chance for Best Actor but could easily get his first nomination for category fraud.


IT WAS A BAD DAY FOR...

Loving. If I had to pick the biggest loser, it's probably this one. Edgerton and Negga are probably still in the race, but remember when there was talk of a Best Picture nomination?

Beyond that, a tie between Nocturnal Animals (which probably had a shot for Supporting Actor), Tom Hanks for Sully, Annette Bening or anyone for 20th Century Women, Isabelle Huppert for Elle (although Emmanuel Riva and Charlotte Rampling didn't make it in either), and gracious co-stars Ben Foster, Simon Helberg, and Janelle Monae.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

Sabin, that was, like, my first post on the subject of Best Actress this season!
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by ITALIANO »

The Original BJ wrote:Have you guys SEEN Elle?

Because I cannot fathom how anyone who has seen that performance in that movie could think it was the frontrunner for the Academy Award for Best Actress, no matter if she wins every critics' prize from here to Timbuktu.

Yeah, well - I didn't even think she would be nominated (though now, and despite this snub, I have to change my mind - too many precursors, really)... So no, I don't see her as the frontrunner, not at all. For many reasons - foreign language certainly, but also type of movie, content, and even type of performance (I mean, I LOVE Huppert and even liked her subtle acting in this one, but what will the Oscar clip be?!).

Still, to be honest - and I admit that I haven't seen either movie - both the two so-called frontrunners, Natalie Portman and Emma Stone, seem to lack something at this point. Of course, I'd predict Stone if only because she hasn't won before and she's in the more popular and beloved movie, but is hers an Oscar-caliber performance? I mean, she's good I'm sure - but will it be perceived as a showy, profound turn?
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Will Brie Larson's win from last year hurt Huppert's chances? I'm thinking that the Academy will have a difficult time justifying two rape-centric Best Actress performances two years in a row.

BJ, conversely, I can see a winner narrative starting to coalesce around Huppert based on a number of factors. But there's also an element of "THIS is what they're choosing to honor her for after all these years!?"
I know I'm saying this on an Oscar Prediction Message Board, but you're putting too much thought into this. Nobody is having this thought. It wouldn't surprise me if most Academy voters don't remember who they voted for last year.

Also, the Academy has proven that it has limited interest in honoring legendary women when there are performances they like more. The only time we've seen an actress win for a foreign-language performance is when she beat Julie Christie, a legend in a film they clearly didn't appreciate as much as we did. They will honor Jennifer Lawrence over Emmanuel Riva. They will honor Brie Larson over Charlotte Rampling. And they will honor Emma Stone or Natalie Portman of (if she's nominated for lead) Viola Davis over Isabelle Huppert for one reason: we understand why these women are legends but they don't. They don't work with Isabelle Huppert. The closest thing she's made to a mainstream Hollywood production in ages is 'I Heart Huckabees'. Critics will honor her because they see everything she does and they recognize her importance and talent. Academy voters know her as the foreign actress that shows up in foreign films that once in a while they have to see.
"How's the despair?"
flipp525
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

Also, not a great day for Greta Gerwig.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
flipp525
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

Will Brie Larson's win from last year hurt Huppert's chances? I'm thinking that the Academy will have a difficult time justifying two rape-centric Best Actress performances two years in a row.

BJ, conversely, I can see a winner narrative starting to coalesce around Huppert based on a number of factors. But there's also an element of "THIS is what they're choosing to honor her for after all these years!?"
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
mojoe92
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by mojoe92 »

The Original BJ wrote:Have you guys SEEN Elle?

Because I cannot fathom how anyone who has seen that performance in that movie could think it was the frontrunner for the Academy Award for Best Actress, no matter if she wins every critics' prize from here to Timbuktu.

I have seen Elle.

I love Huppert in the film, she's by far my pick for best actress.
I'll be voting for her at the Spirit awards and planned on voting for her for the SAG awards but that isn't happening now....

I hope she gets the gold at the oscars
The Original BJ
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by The Original BJ »

Have you guys SEEN Elle?

Because I cannot fathom how anyone who has seen that performance in that movie could think it was the frontrunner for the Academy Award for Best Actress, no matter if she wins every critics' prize from here to Timbuktu.
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SAG Nominations

Post by nightwingnova »

Where my predictions and the actual nominations diverged, I found no trend.

In some cases, SAG was thinking outside the box based on principle and quality. In others, it was falling back upon well-known productions and name-actors.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by mojoe92 »

Where the hell did Blunt come from?


Also, Huppert is the Oscar front runner according to many sources like Hollywood Reporter

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/s ... k_20161214

So, to be snubbed at the SAG awards it's a shock
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Reza »

I still don't understand how all of you knew Huppert would not be nominated. Do the SAGs avoid foreign film performances?
The Original BJ
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by The Original BJ »

After last year's wildly all over the place nominations, this year was almost abnormally predictable. (I only missed Blunt, Mortensen, and Captain Fantastic's ensemble nomination, excluding the stunt category, which I didn't predict.)

I wouldn't be at all surprised for this to be Oscar's Best Actor slate, especially given the ensemble nomination propping up Mortensen's nod.

Emily Blunt feels like a classic SAG/no Oscar nominee, and she's the one nominee in any category I see as having virtually zero chance at crossover. (I actually thought the actress, as always, really brought it in Girl on the Train, but the movie is just so hopelessly stupid, it's impossible to take anyone in it seriously.) As many of us thought, this group wasn't a natural fit for Huppert, so the big losers were Bening & Negga. Are people still clinging to the idea that somehow these two are locked in for Oscar?

SAG didn't elevate any fringe Supporting Actor candidates, the way they might have. Not-a-supporting-actor Hugh Grant seems most vulnerable to falling off, though Florence Foster Jenkins certainly has had a good week, so perhaps it's stronger than many of us thought.

Supporting Actress seems to have settled pretty quickly down to these five, right?

Good on voters for recognizing that La La Land wasn't much of an ensemble. I don't think any of us were expecting Captain Fantastic in its place, but that actually IS a movie with a pretty sizable cast all doing solid work, so kudos to voters for thinking outside the box there.
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