SAG Nomination Predictions

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criddic3
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby criddic3 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:53 pm

Ensemble

20th Century Women
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Lead Actor

Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"
Joel Edgerton, "Loving"
Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Ryan Gosling, "La La Land"
Denzel Washington, "Fences"

Lead Actress

Annette Bening, "20th Century Women"
Ruth Negga, "Loving"
Natalie Portman, "Jackie"
Emma Stone, "La La Land"
Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"
Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"
Hugh Grant, "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Lucas Hedges, "Manchester by the Sea"
Dev Patel, "Lion"

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, "Fences"
Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman, "Lion"
Molly Shannon, "Other People"
Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"

Best Stunt Ensemble

Captain America: Civil War
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Hacksaw Ridge
Jason Bourne
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:51 pm

The Original BJ wrote:SAG voters have no choice regarding category placement. Viola Davis was submitted as supporting actress, and that's the only place she can be nominated. (Del Toro, as well as Connelly/A Beautiful Mind were actually submitted as leads at SAG.)


good to know. I'll adjust.
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Greg » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:41 pm

It seems to me that with the proliferation of all these precursors that many people in the film/TV profession attend in addition to the Oscars and Emmys, that attending/campaigning would take away a lot of time from filming. So, I'm curious, if anyone here who works in the film/TV industry sees a production-rate decline this time of the year.
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:34 pm

SAG voters have no choice regarding category placement. Viola Davis was submitted as supporting actress, and that's the only place she can be nominated. (Del Toro, as well as Connelly/A Beautiful Mind were actually submitted as leads at SAG.)

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Bog » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:05 pm

Sabin wrote: I think SAG voters have to vote for performers in the correct categories


Benicio won the Best Actor SAG didn't he?...pretty much slamming any potential open door in the Supporting Oscar race? Winslet as well I believe? I wouldn't put FilmFan's prediction out of the realm of possibility and if SAG history continues I would bet Davis to win the category and close any question about the Supporting Oscar yet again. Maybe I'm wrong and misremembering but the "correct" category seems to be confusing with SAG

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:56 am

FilmFan720 wrote
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Viola Davis, Fences
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

It's interesting you bring this up. I think SAG voters have to vote for performers in the correct categories, but I was thinking the other day that were Viola Davis to make it into the Best Actress lineup, we'd probably be talking about the single most competitive Best Actress category in ages.

Were the lineup to look something like this, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting any amount of money:
Viola Davis, Fences
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
...and Amy Adams, Arrival or Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:12 am

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Laura Linney, Sully
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ENSEMBLE
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:09 am

anonymous1980 wrote
Sunny Pawar as Young Saroo, Lion

You don't think they'll nominate Dev Patel but you think they'll nominate the kid?
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:18 am

I'm pretty sure Rogue One wasn't screened for SAG voters.
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:52 am

I intentionally included some wacky nominees because SAG usually has one or two of those every year....at least.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MOTION PICTURE CAST

Jovan Adepo, Viola Davis, Stephen Henderson, Russell Hornsby, Saniyya Sidney, Denzel Washington and Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Mahershala Ali, Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Taraji P. Henson, Janelle Monae, Jim Parsons, Glenn Powell and Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Rosemary DeWitt, Ryan Gosling, John Legend, JK Simmons and Emma Stone, La La Land

Casey Affleck, Matthew Broderick, Kyle Chandler, Tate Donovan, Lucas Hedges, Gretchen Mol and Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Alex Hibbert, Andre Holland, Janelle Monae, Travante Rhodes and Ashton Sanders, Moonlight

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck as Lee Chandler, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield as Desmond Doss, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling as Sebastian Wilder, La La Land
Tom Hanks as Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger, Sully
Denzel Washington as Troy, Fences

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Amy Adams as Louise Banks, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert as Michele, Elle
Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy, Jackie
Emma Stone as Mia Dolan, La La Land
Meryl Streep as Florence Foster Jenkins, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali as Juan, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges as Marcus Hamilton, Hell or High Water
Aaron Eckhart as Jeff Skiles, Sully
Lucas Hedges as Patrick Chandler, Manchester by the Sea
Sunny Pawar as Young Saroo, Lion

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis as Rose, Fences
Naomie Harris as Theresa, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman as Sue Brierly, Lion
Helen Mirren as Col. Katherine Powell, Eye in the Sky
Michelle Williams as Randi, Manchester by the Sea

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Captain America: Civil War
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:35 am

Just got back from La La Land. I'll write up some thoughts on it in a bit. But I think you guys have a point and I'm going to change my prediction...to include it for Stunt Ensemble as well.

I honestly just don't see a reason to take the film off the ensemble list. No, it shouldn't get anywhere near a nomination for Ensemble. The Revenant didn't. Gravity didn't. Lots of eventual Best Picture nominees didn't. But La La Land isn't going to be a Best Picture nominee. It's going to win. And the last Best Picture winner to miss out on a nomination was...Braveheart. First ceremony.

Right now I'm predicting Fences, Hell or High Water, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight as nominees. If La La Land were to miss out, what else is in the race that could replace it? The biggest contenders for Best Picture don't seem like good fits. By that I mean, Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Sully, Silence, Arrival, Jackie, and Loving. So what's left? Hidden Figures? Florence Foster Jenkins? 20th Century Women? It just doesn't seem smart to bet on those movies when I know that the SAG voting bloc maybe hasn't loved a movie like La La Land in years. Then again, what do I know? Show of hands: who predicted Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton, and Trumbo last year?
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:11 pm

And, to tack onto Anonymou's comment, there were only two people cited for the ensemble in that nomination, Key and Peele.

As to La La Land, according to the Lionsgate awards website, they list Gosling, Stone, Simmons, Legend, and DeWitt for nomination consideration, so I'm guessing that list will be the ensemble set, which will be more than enough for SAG (and they did hold SAG screenings, so I'm pretty sure it's going to get nominated). That said, it all depends on the opening credits. Any name that appears alone and not paired or listed with others can typically be considered part of the eligible ensemble.
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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:39 pm

Mister Tee wrote:I'm just back from La La Land -- will try to write about it later today -- but I'd say it really tests the premise that the best picture favorite has to get a SAG Ensemble nomination. Yeah, Rosemarie deWitt has a scene, and John Legend has a sort of part...but this movie is 90% just Emma & Ryan, and such films have never been cited here before (usually it's The More the Merrier). If George Clooney had hung around for all of Gravity, would that have constituted an ensemble?


This wasn't in the film but in the TV category: Last year, the sketch show Key & Peele got a Comedy Series Ensemble nomination but there are only two principal actors on that show, the aforementioned Key and Peele...and that's it. Yes, other actors do show up and participate in sketches but the main primary performers are just those two.

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:37 pm

The Original BJ wrote:I agree that an Ensemble nomination for La La Land would REALLY be pushing the definition of the category. But...can't you still imagine it placing? All my actor friends who finally saw the movie this weekend flat adored it, and I can imagine that general enthusiasm for the movie pushing it into contention here. I'd also point out that, unlike Gravity, it doesn't FEEL underpopulated -- recognizable faces keep popping up (J.K. Simmons, Finn Wittrock), and there are numerous dance numbers with lots of featured extras. (I know, those people won't actually get the nomination, but I don't think voters are thinking much about that.) And not that the movie needs to keep being compared to The Artist, but that was also pretty much a two-hander, and it still scored in this category. But...obviously we'll see what happens on Wednesday.

I'm not even faintly arguing it won't happen, merely that it shouldn't.

I think SAG members -- especially the hangers-on who work irregularly -- will hear Emma's 11 o'clock number as their manifesto...they'll want to shout out, yes, Mom and Dad, that's why I do what I do! It's an enormous wet kiss to all artists, would-be or otherwise, and they're going to gobble it up.

I also agree with you precisely on Huppert: there's a possibility of her missing at SAG -- but that would have little effect on her Oscar nomination likelihood.

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Re: SAG Nomination Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:23 pm

I agree that an Ensemble nomination for La La Land would REALLY be pushing the definition of the category. But...can't you still imagine it placing? All my actor friends who finally saw the movie this weekend flat adored it, and I can imagine that general enthusiasm for the movie pushing it into contention here. I'd also point out that, unlike Gravity, it doesn't FEEL underpopulated -- recognizable faces keep popping up (J.K. Simmons, Finn Wittrock), and there are numerous dance numbers with lots of featured extras. (I know, those people won't actually get the nomination, but I don't think voters are thinking much about that.) And not that the movie needs to keep being compared to The Artist, but that was also pretty much a two-hander, and it still scored in this category. But...obviously we'll see what happens on Wednesday.

If Huppert got a nomination here, she'd be in Cruz/Volver and Cotillard/La Vie en Rose territory, among the few foreign language performances to hit all the major precursors before the Oscar nominations. I guess my feeling at the moment is that a movie as prickly as Elle is more likely than not going to have a bump somewhere along the way, and SAG has always seemed the trickiest get. (And not just on subject matter -- I think the movie will have a disadvantage at not being as widely seen with this group as some other options). Given the overall competitive field, I wouldn't be surprised to see her left off. But if she DOES get this nomination, it's hard to see her being excluded come Oscar time, given the overall friendlier environment for a Huppert-type nominee.
Last edited by The Original BJ on Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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