Mister Tee wrote
Mostly down-the-middle choices (I believe Sabin went 4 for 4 in the acting categories, for which, kudos).
Thanks! I went 8/12. Probably my best showing at a critic's group, missing Best Film, Best Foreign-Language Film, Best First Film, and not predicting Best Animated Film. I'll cite Precious for predicting that Isabelle Huppert would win for both Elle and Things to Come.
The big winner of the day is probably Isabelle Huppert. Every year or so, there's talk of a grande dame getting recognition for a legendary career. Sometimes it connects, like Charlotte Rampling last year, but sometimes it's just talk that's quickly forgotten. With a NYFCC and a Critic's Choice nomination to the already young season, she seems to have at least some footing in a very competitive race.
If I had to pick a runner up for big winner, I might say La La Land. I've thought of it as the presumptive front-runner since its release, but the past couple of weeks has been more dominated by talk of Fences and Silence, and the past couple of days it seemed to be dwarfed in the critic's communities by Manchester and Moonlight.
But the more I think about it, I think my runner up for best day would have to be Mel Gibson. Sure, Hacksaw Ridge didn't factor into New York voting (I mean, until we see the runners up, but not likely) but it was honored by the National Board of Review and it pulled in seven nominations from the Critic's Choice Awards. That's more than any film besides Arrival, La La Land, and Moonlight. These aren't the most meaningful awards in the world, but come January, Mel Gibson is going to be sitting in the audience and applauded for his talents. That's a huge step towards rehabilitation for a career that I think many of us thought was beyond rehabilitation.
If there's a loser, I think it's ABC. Anyone But Casey. We're new into this race, but Best Actor looks increasingly like Casey Affleck and four other people who aren't going to win. Every association, circle, and society that goes with Casey Affleck, is a massive missed opportunity for anyone else to probably lock a nomination down. If Viggo Mortensen wins in Los Angeles, the headline will read "Someone Besides Casey Affleck Actually Wins."
If there's another loser, it's Silence. They saw it in New York and then gave it nothing.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver