Kicking Off the Fall Season

[Precious Doll]

Forget Toni Erdmann. It's one of the very best films of the year but it so far removed from the Academy's orbit.

I hope Germany submit it as their Foreign Language candidate but it's going to need the Committees help to make the short-list and it will be a struggle to make the final five.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Just this morning, though, they announced the premiere of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – one of my few golden hopes for this year. Andrew Sarris once called John Huston “The mad adapter”, and I think you’d have to say Ang Lee rates that title present day, given the batch of prominent novels he’s brought to the screen: Sense and Sensibility, The Ice Storm, Life of Pi and now Billy Lynn (plus Brokeback, from a short story). I loved the novel Billy Lynn so much I can’t help worrying it won’t play as well on screen. But I guess if anyone can preserve its special qualities, it’s Ang Lee.

Apparently Kent Jones is quite taken by it, saying:

"Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk astonished me, and it moved me deeply — in the grandest way, as a story of America in the years after the invasion of Iraq, and on the most intimate person-to-person wavelength. Ang Lee has always gone deep into the nuances of the emotions between his characters, and that’s exactly what drove him to push cinema technology to new levels. It’s all about the faces, the smallest emotional shifts. In every way, Billy Lynn is the work of a master.”

[Mister Tee]

I know I’ve always posted a pre-festivals thread, to get the season started, but this year I find myself at a loss at to how to begin. How does one write about a year that in most ways hasn’t begun, and where the path up ahead is utterly opaque? I honestly had to take a look back at some recent years’ entries, to remind myself of how I usually approach this.

Because here’s the situation: while you can’t rule out an obligatory Meryl Streep best actress nod (which wouldn’t be totally undeserved) -- and while I’ll hold out (likely fruitless) hope of critics boosting Tracy Letts or Linda Emond in supporting categories -- it’s entirely possible not a single film released so far this year will yield an above-the-line (film/directing/acting/writing) nomination. Which would be pretty unprecedented -- last year we had Mad Max, and the Inside Out/Ex Machina/Straight Outta Compton screenplays; the year prior, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel; the year before that, Blue Jasmine, at least (and ultimately-failed-but-in-the mix candidate The Butler, especially Oprah).

We’ve also normally had some already-screened (at Sundance or Cannes) heavy-hitters, films we were reasonably sure, when they were released, would make some kind of Oscar noise (last year, Brooklyn and Carol; Whiplash and Foxcatcher the year before). We could do better in this category, with two Sundance titles poised for potential impact – Birth of a Nation and Manchester by the Sea – though the former is now so clouded by that controversy it’s hard to guess how it’ll do, and Manchester may turn out too small or dour a thing to make many big categories (though it’s hard to see how a performance as highly praised as Casey Affleck’s can fail to get into the best actor discussion). The Cannes group is iffier. Some titles MIGHT break through if given the chance – my distributor friend thinks I, Daniel Blake has potential for big-time career recognition for Loach. So far, though, it’s not even officially scheduled for release. Perhaps a rousing reception in Toronto could make it a more solid reality. Elle, Toni Erdman, Loving and American Honey also have potential to push into the race…or they could just as easily sink without a trace. This is part of what I mean in calling the field opaque.

All of this means the festivals (Venice, Telluride, Toronto & NY) this year could have even more impact than usual, giving second-stage propulsion to early year hopefuls (as they did Brooklyn last year, or Nebraska two years earlier); highlighting the most deserving from the blue chip group (the way they selected movies like Birdman and 12 Years a Slave in recent years); and, hopefully, boosting surprises from the pack (as with Spotlight, Room and The Martian in last year’s bountiful crop). This last feels more important this year because, as I’ve noted before, the year’s blue chip field is, on paper, a bit thin.

Venice, to my mind, has drawn the hot hand this year -- premiering several of the (based on murmurs) strongest titles of the upcoming season. The Light Between Oceans might be too much a romance for serious consideration, but it has the golden couple Fassbender and Vikander toplining, so it may go further than you’d expect. La La Land, Chazelle’s follow-up to Whiplash, is said to be lighter than air but smashing, and offers the Crazy Stupid Love reunion teaming of Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone. There’s a new Terence Malick film, Voyage of Time, with Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett; we can hope Malick’s recent cold streak is snapped here. And there are two hotly-touted films starring Amy Adams -- Nocturnal Animals from Tom Ford, and Arrival, from festival favorite Denis Villeneuve. These would seem likely to put overdue Adams into the thick of the year’s best actress race (which makes the Awards Watch folk furious: they’d already decided Viola Davis is winning this year). This continues Adams’ string of work with distinctive directors – in recent years: O. Russell, Burton, Jonze, P.T. Anderson, now these two. People rightly praise Matt Damon for making auteurist selections in his career; you’d think a woman (given her choices probably aren’t as wide) would get more credit for doing this.

No one’ll know for sure till a few days out what’s on tap at Telluride, so, for purposes of this thread, post-Venice, it’ll be on to Toronto. Toronto in recent years has been rather short on high-profile premieres – they’ve been more apt to re-emphasize early year premieres, or to unearth sleepers. Of the former, Loving, Birth of a Nation, Elle, Manchester by the Sea, American Honey, Toni Erdman and I, Daniel Blake will all be screened, so we’ll get a more solid idea of just how weak or strong each is when American critics weigh in.

As for those films making their debuts: it’s a long list of films, few of which, to be honest, I’ve even heard about. If someone can alert me to something major I’m overlooking, feel free. I’ll of course root, as always, for something extraordinary to emerge from the anonymous pack. But, for the moment, there’s only this small group of which I’m at least semi-aware:

Moonlight seems to be generating advance buzz, though that may be partly for the political buttons it pushes (being both a black and gay movie). Notably, though, it’s received high praise from Ta-Nehisi Coates, so count me intrigued.

Deepwater Horizon is a Peter Berg/Mark Wahlberg project, so maybe it’s just a sound/sound effects candidate. Or maybe it’s something more.

A Monster Calls is based on a children’s book held in apparently high regard; could be nothing, but worth keeping an eye on.

The Secret Scripture gets my attention because it’s Rooney Mara in a mental hospital, and because I have everlasting hope of a Neil Jordan career resurrection.

Snowden – Oliver Stone’s period of Oscar favor seems from another lifetime, so who knows how this will turn out? The film will have the handicap of covering ground already dealt with in a prominent documentary – projects with that profile last year (The Walk, Our Brand is Crisis, Freeheld) did quite poorly.

Lion is more Rooney Mara – also Nicole Kidman and Dev Patel – about a young boy separated from his family who uses GPS to try and make his way home 20 years later.

American Pastoral is the year’s second Philip Roth adaptation. A fine novel, but not one that seems easily suited to dramatization, and this is Ewan McGregor’s directing debut.

If you’d asked me yesterday, I’d have said New York, which follows shortly after, didn’t seem to be making a heavy Oscar play this year – it was programmed more like the festival in its early, 1960s/70s incarnation, with a roster largely filled with films that already played Cannes. Plus the opening film is a documentary (albeit one directed by Ava Duvernay). The centerpiece and closing films were the only ones that seemed might make some Academy noise: Mike Mills’ 20th Century Women (which is getting attention for Annette Bening), and James Gray’s The Lost City of Z. The latter doesn’t have a release date set as yet, but a successful NY premiere could change that.

Just this morning, though, they announced the premiere of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – one of my few golden hopes for this year. Andrew Sarris once called John Huston “The mad adapter”, and I think you’d have to say Ang Lee rates that title present day, given the batch of prominent novels he’s brought to the screen: Sense and Sensibility, The Ice Storm, Life of Pi and now Billy Lynn (plus Brokeback, from a short story). I loved the novel Billy Lynn so much I can’t help worrying it won’t play as well on screen. But I guess if anyone can preserve its special qualities, it’s Ang Lee.

In many recent years, festival rosters have accounted for almost the entire Oscar race – with as few as 3-5 major films left unscreened post-October, and of course even fewer of those turning into contenders. This year could be different, though: a slew of prominent titles are bypassing the festivals entirely. My take on the most prominent of those remaining efforts, in rough chronological order:

Sully – Eastwood directing Hanks. With Eastwood, you just never know these days: he’s missed more than he’s hit in the past decade, but when he hits, he can hit big.

The Girl on the Train is of course a potboiler – if a hugely successful one – and having Tate Taylor at the helm doesn’t suggest anything but a commercial play (if Fincher/Gone Girl couldn’t do much at the Oscars, why would you bet on this combo?). But Emily Blunt is always worth keeping an eye on.

The Accountant also seems to fall into potboiler territory, though Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick give it some topline potential.

Moana is of interest because 1) it’s one of the year’s prominent/likely-contending animated features, and 2) it’s got all-awards-conquerer Lin-Manuel Miranda providing songs.

Allied is a Zemeckis wartime romance/thriller. It feels like Zemeckis’ Oscar time is mostly past, but here he’s got Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard as his central characters, so maybe it’ll turn out to be something.

Rules Don’t Apply is Warren Beatty’s Howard Hughes movie. Beatty’s been absent for so long that it’s hard to know whether to take this seriously – it may be he’s simply over the hill – but he’s been talking about making a movie on this subject for so much of my lifetime, I can’t help being a bit interested in how it’s turned out.

Miss Sloane is a Jessica Chastain vehicle centered on an attempt to pass gun control legislation – which doesn’t sound like the makings of a hit, but, you know, strange things happen.

The Founder is Michael Keaton trying to continue his hot streak, playing McDonald’s head man Ray Kroc. John Hancock in the director’s chair of course doesn’t inspire confidence.

Fences seems like awards catnip, given the pedigree and cast, especially in the wake of last year’s racial brouhaha. I’ve mentioned before I’m in the deep minority on the play – I think it’s stale, 40s-like dramaturgy, with less distinctive dialogue than in some of Wilson’s other plays. But even granting that gulf between me and the critical mass…shouldn’t one be wary of Washington in the director’s chair? I thought Antwone Fisher was flat awful, and never even bothered to see The Great Debaters – to me, his work reeks of banality, which would only underline my issues with the play. I’ll be interested in how this turns out – whether this is one of those films where predictors over-estimated a property, or one whose award success I need to struggle through.

Gold could be just an adventure movie – McConaughey playing the kind of lead he specialized in prior to Dallas Buyers’ Club – but this is Stephen Gaghan, who’s shown higher ambitions in the past, so maybe there’s more here than meets the eye.

Passengers is Morten Tyldum directing Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt as astronauts coming out of suspended animation. Thought to be more likely an audience movie than an awards effort, but so was The Martian.

Silence, Scorsese’s latest, seems to be set for a December opening. It feels like it has a lot of strikes against it: a 17th century setting, esoteric subject matter (Jesuit priests on a mission in Japan), an apparent three-hour running time. This could be Kundun on steroids. But it’s Scorsese, so we’ll hope for something special.

Live By Night, a Ben Affleck written/directed adaptation of a Dennis Lehane novel, is apparently being given a December qualifying run. I’ve read the novel, and am not especially crazy about it (I preferred its predecessor, The Given Day, and I think that book, set all in Boston, would have been a more natural fit for Affleck). But I wasn’t wild about Mystic River on the page, either, and it turned out a better movie than I’d imagined.

To wrap up, let me say that, while I‘ve found the year-to-date beyond dismal, to some degree I’m energized by the absolute blank slate we face going into Fall. Often we have half the Oscar race in view by now, and many of the vague outlines apparent immediately after Toronto. This time around, we might take a longer while to put all the pieces in place. That could make for a fun season.