89th Oscars: Best Picture

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby inky » Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:59 am

OscarGuy wrote:You never read ours, Inky. On Cinema Sight, all four of us had Moonlight down as the runner-up prediction.


I did read yours but I was talking about an overall impression (after reading the rest of the prediction articles). Of course I didn't do a scientific statistical analysis to confirm this.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:03 pm

You never read ours, Inky. On Cinema Sight, all four of us had Moonlight down as the runner-up prediction.
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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby inky » Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:42 pm

anonymous1980 wrote:
inky wrote:Ok ... before the ceremony night, I suppose more than 95% of speculations would be that IF an upset in this category were happened, the winner must be MANCHESTER BY THE SEA. I bet very few people would consider MOONLIGHT the alternative - at most at a distant third place.


Seriously? In the circles I hang out in, the alternative Best Picture was, in fact, Moonlight with a few people saying Hidden Figures because it's a huge hit and a more "traditional" film than Moonlight (black but without the gay). Nobody was bringing up Manchester by the Sea as a possible Best Picture upset.


That was my impression when reading prediction articles in American media.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby anonymous1980 » Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:28 pm

inky wrote:Ok ... before the ceremony night, I suppose more than 95% of speculations would be that IF an upset in this category were happened, the winner must be MANCHESTER BY THE SEA. I bet very few people would consider MOONLIGHT the alternative - at most at a distant third place.


Seriously? In the circles I hang out in, the alternative Best Picture was, in fact, Moonlight with a few people saying Hidden Figures because it's a huge hit and a more "traditional" film than Moonlight (black but without the gay). Nobody was bringing up Manchester by the Sea as a possible Best Picture upset.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby inky » Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:14 pm

Ok ... before the ceremony night, I suppose more than 95% of speculations would be that IF an upset in this category were happened, the winner must be MANCHESTER BY THE SEA. I bet very few people would consider MOONLIGHT the alternative - at most at a distant third place.

in mid-February, I was invited (in the capacity of film reviewer) along with 5 other local journalists, filmmaker and reviewer by a Singapore newspaper to predict the winners of seven categories (Picture, Director, acting awards, Animated Feature). Eventually, a film director and I tied in correctly predicting 5 categories (the rest made only 3-4 correct predictions). I missed out in Picture and Best Actor - and you can easily guess whom I had predicted. The film director was the only interviewee who predicted MOONLIGHT to be the Best Picture winner (the rest of us all predicted LLL). The only rationale he raised was that the Academy members have the tradition of naming 'serious' Best Picture winners.

I appreciate the more in-depth analysis on the MOONLIGHT upset on this board. I personally think that the above-stated rationale of the film director is lame. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA is also a serious film - except that it's more about personal turmoil while MOONLIGHT carries stronger social message. MOONLIGHT's explicit gay element might have been regarded as a crucial factor that would have prevented it to be the film that could upset LLL, prior to the ceremony. Even for a moment when I imagined the black-friendly tide would hit the Best Picture category, I was thinking of HIDDEN FIGURES (also carrying a more serious theme as compared to LLL ... but executed in a relatively comedic manner) instead.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby Okri » Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:39 am

Sonic Youth wrote:So, I would like to know if anyone here saw La La Land win Best Picture, and then immediately turned the set off.


I wasn't actually watching the show, but I did stop paying attention after La La was announced.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:57 am

Ah, so. He was presenting Best Adapted Score and they gave him the envelope for Best Original Score, which he opened, announcing the winner for the wrong award - John Addison for Tom Jones instead of André Previn for Irma La Douce.
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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby Heksagon » Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:18 am

For reference, here's the link to when Sammy Davis Jr. was given then wrong envelope in 1963

https://www.oscars.org/vef/load/8e395e1ab37e588a9372f001971b08aa?width=640&height=365&iframe=true

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby nightwingnova » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:04 am

Just rechecked the Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots that I digested rigorously...4 Moonlight, 1 La La Land, 1 Hell and High Water....

This I should have listened to, instead of going with the overwhelming sense of a La La victory. Moonlight got heavier applause all night too.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:57 am

One of the most incredible things I've ever seen in an Oscar telecast, I must say.

I loved both La La Land and Moonlight so this is the best possible Oscar outcome.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby inky » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:50 am

Bog wrote:4 out of 5 Picture/Director split now...I'm sure it goes without saying...there has never been any kind of 80% streak before in history, correct?

That was some crazy crazy shit...my brother texted me immediately and his main comment was how happily and proudly Warren threw Faye hard and intently under the bus.


And Independent Spirit Awards' Best Picture category has become a decent precursor for Oscar Best Picture ... even more accurate than PGA for 4 consecutive years in predicting Oscar BP winners.
Last edited by inky on Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby inky » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:48 am

Big Magilla wrote:
Sonic Youth wrote:So, I would like to know if anyone here saw La La Land win Best Picture, and then immediately turned the set off.

I almost did, but decided to leave it on while I went to the bathroom first.


I wanted to switch off TV and take a short nap (it was 1pm Singapore time), and then wake up to write my column article for local newspaper (on my Oscar reaction), which is due in 2 hours' time. Just left it on a bit longer and then got too excited with the twist ... now I'm skipping my nap and go ahead with my writing assignment.
Last edited by inky on Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby Bog » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:48 am

4 out of 5 Picture/Director split now...I'm sure it goes without saying...there has never been any kind of 80% streak before in history, correct?

That was some crazy crazy shit...my brother texted me immediately and his main comment was how happily and proudly Warren threw Faye hard and intently under the bus.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby danfrank » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:45 am

I'm thrilled.

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Re: 89th Oscars: Best Picture

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:45 am

OscarGuy wrote:Other than this, how many other times has the wrong envelope been given. Someone said Sammy Davis Jr. got the wrong envelope sometime back in the 1960s.

I remember somebody getting the wrong envelope but recognizing that before it was opened. I can't remember if I saw it happen or in clips after the fact.

This was a first, though.
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