Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Despite the love for La La Land, I wonder if voters think its story is thin. All the other components flesh it out beautifully. In the Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots (which I understand could be a unique niche of opinion), voters dismiss La La Land and instead gravitate towards Manchester and Hell and High Water.

Hell is beloved but even its supporters admit it's just top entertainment. On the other hand, the weighty Manchester seems to have institutional support even while some have problems with it.

I'll go with Manchester.

Musicals tend not to do too well in the Screenplay categories through the years -- remember that even Chicago, a film that got a lot of attention for the success of its screenplay, lost at the Oscars -- so even if La La Land goes on a strong sweep this is one place where it could easily still lose.

Yes, true -- but Chicago was in Adapted while La La Land is in Original. I don't know if that makes a difference in your reasoning.

This one should go to Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea easily. Beyond the fact that it's the best of the nominees, I just don't see them giving both the screenplay and directing Oscars to Damien Chazelle for La La Land. Anything else would be a shock.

Nominees:
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Here is a quietly competitive category, and another one where the precursors won't tell us everything we need to know. It is also a category where I have seen all 5 nominees.

By all accounts, this should be between Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. Musicals tend not to do too well in the Screenplay categories through the years -- remember that even Chicago, a film that got a lot of attention for the success of its screenplay, lost at the Oscars -- so even if La La Land goes on a strong sweep this is one place where it could easily still lose.

Manchester by the Sea has been the frontrunner in this category for over a year now, ever since its dynamic Sundance debut, which could be a good and a bad thing. Will voters mark it in automatically, or are they getting sick of it yet? If Casey Affleck loses Best Actor, this is the best chance to still honor the film.

Again, our best precursor won't help too much because of the Moonlight factor. I'm guessing Moonlight takes the WGA award here, where it isn't eligible at the Oscars, and we go into Oscar night with a neck and neck race. If one of these nominees wins at WGA, then the category is probably a done deal.