Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

[flipp525]

I doubt Theron will even get as far as Uma Thurman did for either Kill Bill installment, or Jamie Lee Curtis for True Lies.

BJ, I find the scenario as implausible as you do (especially considering what's shaping up to be a surfeit of contenders in Best Actress this year), but I thought I'd throw it into the mix. That's kind of what I love about this time of year since there's not much else to talk about.

Just for fun: my college buddy - whose first feature film as a producer just won the jury prize at film festival, btw - told me that he hung out with Charlize once and she spoke quite affectionately of her performance in Young Adult which is definitely one of my favorites and for which she very much should have been nominated.

[The Original BJ]

Charlize Theron has also officially entered the Best Actress conversation for possible Aliens-esque recognition for Mad Max: Fury Road. I would expect an uphill battle for that though given the genre bias of the Academy.

You aren't the first person I've seen mention this as a possibility, but I have to say, despite acknowledging my own personal anathema to Mad Max, I think this is about as likely as a Best Picture nomination (maybe even less so). Even if the Best Actress field ends up being appallingly thin, I just can't come up with a reason why this performance (which, for me, barely even qualified as one), would be singled out when films of this type have virtually never produced acting nominees.

I doubt Theron will even get as far as Uma Thurman did for either Kill Bill installment, or Jamie Lee Curtis for True Lies. (And it's worth noting that both Curtis and Thurman for Vol. 1 were competing in really weak years for Best Actress. Oscar voters still found non-action options.)

[flipp525]

I've heard phenomenal things about Jane Fonda's brief turn in Youth, so pencil her in for a possible "welcome back" style nod in support.

Charlize Theron has also officially entered the Best Actress conversation for possible Aliens-esque recognition for Mad Max: Fury Road. I would expect an uphill battle for that though given the genre bias of the Academy.

[Big Magilla]

The Lady in the Van looks as underwhelming as last year's Maggie Smith movie, My Old Lady.

I've already replaced Lily Tomlin, the weakest of my Best Actress predictions, with Rooney Mara, based on the reviews of Carol coming out of Cannes.

Julie Walters is the strongest bet amongst this year's crop of old ladies. I do expect her to make the final cut at this point. I'm on the fence about Judi Dench as the Abbess of St. Ursula in Tulip Fever. It's probably one of her throwaway roles, but with a weak group of supporting actresses to pick from she makes my early list. Helen Mirren, though, could knock them all out of contention if her Hedda Hopper is more than just a cameo in Trumbo. She was his evil nemesis during the Hollywood witch hunts so it's potentially a very juicy role for her.

It's too early to predict actual winners except maybe Cate Blanchett in lead actress if they're inclined to give her a third one so soon. She's never won one of my awards so this may be her year I finally give in.

[OscarGuy]

Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van?

[flipp525]

So, is an action movie the critics go for but BJ doesn't the new Big Magilla and his hopeful old lady performance prediction? (he says affectionately)

Speaking of, is Julie Walters' "sharp-tongued landlady in Brooklyn" your official entry this year, Big Magilla? It certainly sounded like it!

[The Original BJ]

So, is an action movie the critics go for but BJ doesn't the new Big Magilla and his hopeful old lady performance prediction? (he says affectionately)

Hahahaha, I love it!

[Okri]

So, is an action movie the critics go for but BJ doesn't the new Big Magilla and his hopeful old lady performance prediction? (he says affectionately)

[The Original BJ]

I agree that Mad Max will likely snap up a lot of those tech nominations, but I promise to eat my shoe if that gets a Best Picture nomination. The Academy hasn't shown any willingness to create a blockbuster "spot" in its Best Picture lineup, and I can't believe they would suddenly expand their ideas about what constitutes a Best Picture type to ever include something like this.

Frankly, I can't believe the critics have gone so wild for this -- the action scenes are technically astounding, but the story is all but nonexistent, and like every other Mad Max movie, I found it a thoroughly unpleasant experience.

[Mister Tee]

If Cannes tooketh away yesterday (Sea of Trees got embarrassingly bad reactions), today it seems to giveth, as the response to Haynes' Carol is near-rhapsodic. One caution: the trade reviews are not yet up, and Variety's critic Debruge has been one of the few less-than-thrilled tweeters. But overall response suggests Haynes could get his Oscar breakthrough this year the way Linklater and Anderson did last year.

And it's another case of "the film year comes at last to life" -- and we mere audiences need only wait another 6 months to see the film.

[anonymous1980]

I think Mad Max: Fury Road will be getting a slew of technical nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Cinematography and Film Editing seem assured. It can make a strong play for Original Score, Visual Effects and Costume Design as well. I won't be surprised this would talked up to take the "blockbuster" spot in the Best Picture lineup.

[flipp525]

McConaughey's really not picking them post-Oscar, is he?

[Big Magilla]

It was booed.

Here's a review:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes ... e-20150515

[FilmFan720]

I'm curious to hear about what the reviews for Sea of Trees are like at Cannes in the next few weeks. I see others predicting it full throttle, but I am weary of Gus Van Sant and the Oscars. When his films are conventional (but not too conventional) then he can pick up a lot of nominations, but his other films are completely persona non gratae. I can see this film going either way, so I want to hear what people think of it.

I'd say anyone who was predicting it can scratch it off their lists. Its reviews at Cannes are so far ranging from negative to hostile.

Negative to hostile because they see it as conventional and manipulative...one person told me today AMPAS may "eat it up"

[dws1982]

I'm curious to hear about what the reviews for Sea of Trees are like at Cannes in the next few weeks. I see others predicting it full throttle, but I am weary of Gus Van Sant and the Oscars. When his films are conventional (but not too conventional) then he can pick up a lot of nominations, but his other films are completely persona non gratae. I can see this film going either way, so I want to hear what people think of it.

I'd say anyone who was predicting it can scratch it off their lists. Its reviews at Cannes are so far ranging from negative to hostile.