Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

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Sabin
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Thank you! I knew I was forgetting somebody on Best Supporting Actress. Winslet is quite good but Katherine Waterston has the harder role and less screen time.
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flipp525
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by flipp525 »

anonymous1980 wrote:BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
I am honestly baffled that McAdams is in the conversation for this performance. She doesn't do anything in the film! The closest she gets (upon which I've expounded in the Spotlight thread) is the scene when the one priest admits that he molested several boys, but that it was out of love and not the rape that he'd experienced himself. But the movie backs away from really letting her character deep-dive into this and just quickly moves on. I would much rather Kristen Stewart find her way onto this slate than a very lazy nomination for McAdams. Or Jane Fonda. Or even Amber Heard. Or Katherine Waterston.
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Sabin
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Interesting. Why do you think Mad Max: Fury Road will miss out on Production Design and Costume Design? The bulk of the Production Design to my mind was all landscapes but it doesn't appear that anybody else feels that way?
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anonymous1980
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by anonymous1980 »

My pre-final Oscar predictions (I will probably only alter this a little bit post-BAFTA/Guilds):

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

The Big Short (Paramount Pictures) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Arnon Milchan and Brad Pitt (producers)

Bridge of Spies (Dreamworks) Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger (producers)

Brooklyn (Wildgaze Film) Finola Dwyner and Amanda Posey, (producers)

Carol (The Weinstein Company) Elizabeth Karlsen, Christine Vachon and Tessa Ross (producers)

Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.) George Miller, Doug Mitchell and PJ Voeten (producers)

The Martian (20th Century Fox) Ridley Scott, Simon Kinberg and Michael Schaefer (producers)

The Revenant (20th Century Fox) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, Steve Golin, James W. Skotchdupole and Mary Parent (producers)

Room (A24 Films) Ed Guiney and David Gross (producers)

Spotlight (Open Road Films) Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust, Steve Golin and Michael Sugar (producers)

Straight Outta Compton (Legendary/New Line Cinema) Ice Cube, F. Gary Gray and Dr. Dre (producers).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Todd Haynes, Carol
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies
written by Matt Charman, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Ex-Machina
written by Alex Garland

Inside Out
story by Pete Docter and Ronnie Del Carmen
screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LaFauve and Josh Cooley.

Spotlight
written by Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer.

Straight Outta Compton
screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff
story by S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short
screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
based on the book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis

Brooklyn
screenplay by Nick Hornby
based on the novel by Colm Toibin

Carol
screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
based on the novel The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith.

The Martian
screenplay by Drew Goddard
based on the novel by Andy Weir

Room
screenplay by Emma Donoghue
based on her novel

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Good Dinosaur (Disney/PIXAR) Peter Sohn and Denise Ream.
Inside Out (Disney/PIXAR) Pete Docter, Ronnie Del Carmen and Jonas Rivera
The Peanuts Movie (Blue Sky) Steve Martino, Craig Schulz and Bryan Schulz
Shaun the Sheep Movie (Aardman) Richard Starzak and Mark Burton.
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli) Hiromasa Yonebayashi, Yoshiaki Nishimura and Toshio Suzuki

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia) Ciro Guerra, director
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany) Giulio Ricciarelli, director
Mustang (France) Deniz Gamze Ergüven, director
Son of Saul (Hungary) Laszlo Nemes, director
Theeb (Jordan) Naji Abu Nowar, director

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy (A24 Films) Asif Kapdia and James Gay-Rees.
Cartel Land (Our Time Projects) Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
The Hunting Ground (E1 Films) Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering
The Look of Silence (Final Cut for Real) Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen.
Meru (Music Box Films) Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Edward Lachmann, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Hank Corwin, The Big Short
Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
Pietro Scalia, The Martian
Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
Tom McArdle, Spotlight

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Adam Stockhausen (production design) & Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich (set decoration), Bridge of Spies
Judy Becker (production design) & Heather Loeffler (set decoration), Carol
Dante Ferretti (production design) & Francesca LoSchiavo (set decoration), Cinderella
Thomas E. Sanders (production design) & Jeffrey A. Melvin and Shane Vieau (set decoration), Crimson Peak
Arthur Max (production design) & Celia Bobak and Zoltán Horváth, The Martian

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Odile Dicks-Mireaux, Brooklyn
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl
Daniel Orlandi, Trumbo

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Michael Giacchino, Inside Out
Johan Johansson, Sicario

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Better When I'm Dancin'", The Peanuts Movie
music & lyrics by Meghan Trainor and Thaddeus Dixon

"Flashlight", Pitch Perfect 2
music & lyrics by Sia Furler, Jason Moore and Christian Guzman

"See You Again", Furious 7
music & lyrics by Cameron Thomaz, Charlie Puth and Andrew Cedar

"Simple Song # 3", Youth
music & lyrics by David Lang.

"Till It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
music & lyrics by Stefani Germanotta and Diane Warren

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Damian Canelos, Creed
Gregg Rudloff, Peter Purcell, Steve Maslow and Chris Jenkins, Mad Max: Fury Road
Paul Massey, Mark Taylor, Chris Navarro and Mac Ruth, The Martian
Randy Thom, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, The Revenant
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Shannon Mills and Ren Klyce, Inside Out
Mark Mangini and Wayne Pashley, Mad Max: Fury Road
Oliver Tarney, The Martian
Randy Thom and Lon Bender, The Revenant
Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Tim Alexander, Glen McIntosh, John Rosengrant and Jacob Børsting, Jurassic World
David Nelson, Andrew Jackson, Katherine Rodtsbrooks and Dan Oliver, Mad Max: Fury Road
Richard Stammers, Neil Corbould, Dale Newton and Sara Bennett, The Martian
Allan Magled, Oclun Tan, Richard McBride and Cameron Waldbauer, The Revenant
Roger Guyett, Michael Mulholland, Ben Morris and Chris Corbould, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Damian Martin and Lesley Vanderwalt, Mad Max: Fury Road
Love Larson and Eva Von Bahr, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Adrien Morot and Sharon Toohey, The Revenant
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jefforey Smith
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Jefforey Smith »

Along these lines (& I don't know if anyone's thrown this in, I've not read this entire thread) the December 4th issue of ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY handicaps the Best Supporting Actress race on page 57. The headline "Supporting Role That Really Lead" is a tip-off. Contenders listed as "Sure Things" are Vikander (The Danish Girl), Rooney Mara (Carol), & Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs). "Serious Threats" are Jane Fonda (Youth), Joan Allen (Room) & Rachel McAdams (Spotlight). "Potential Spoilers" are Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Julie Walters (Brooklyn), Ellen Page (Freeheld), & Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria). That makes ten names in the mix vying for those five spots. Fun & exciting year. I recommend this article, it's a great resource.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Who knows? Spielberg is far from his best in Bridge of Spies but so were the Coens in True Grit. I think what Miller has going for him is he's old. He's an outsider but he's been around for a while. This is their first chance to honor him. The alternatives are a bunch of youngins like Lenny Abrahamson or directors like Russell and Tarantino who didn't get the response for their work that some were predicting.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by ITALIANO »

Sabin wrote:going with Spielberg over Miller for the same reason they went with The Coens over Nolan.

You know how much I'd love NOT to see Miller in the list... But there's no way they are going to nominate a far-from-his-best Steven Spielberg over him.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Last predictions of the year...

BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
NOTES: lose Brooklyn if it's eight. Still waiting on the Director's Guild to see Mad Max's power.

BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
NOTES: going with Spielberg over Miller for the same reason they went with The Coens over Nolan.

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
NOTES: going back and forth on Carell vs. Damon. I do not like The Big Short but he was just nominated last year and it's a more emotional performance than Damon's movie star turn. Right now, I'm going with Carell.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
NOTES: well, it's an interesting race, I'll give you that! Who knows if Mara and Vikander can prevail here over Lawrence and Rampling? Part of me thinks that Lawrence is going to get less enthusiasm here however Mara is more likely to get a higher vote total in the weaker Supporting Actress field so she'll likely end up there, same thing with Vikander.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylverster Stallone, Creed
NOTES: torn between Christian Bale, Paul Dano, Jacob Tremblay, and somebody we're just not thinking about right now. Not entirely sure about Shannon either. I'm going with Bale for now because he's in the club, and he has a showy role. After seeing Spotlight, I'm not convinced Michael Keaton or Mark Ruffalo have quite enough to do (Ruffalo has the big scene but Keaton has more emotional weight; would really prefer to see Liev Schreiber talked about more). Holding out for the BAFTAs to see what their left field choice is. Hoping it's Benicio Del Toro for Sicario or Oscar Isaac for Ex Machina.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
NOTES: if no Mara or Vikander, who is it going to be? Rachel McAdams doesn't have much to do. Jane Fonda has one scene. Mya Taylor? In my dreams.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Matt Charman and Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Pete Docter, et all, Inside Out
Laszlo Nemes and Clara Royer, Son of Saul
Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
NOTES: Ex Machina, 99 Homes, or Sicario could get in over Son of Saul. In fact, they do seem a bit more writerly...hm...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Emma Donoghue, Room
Drew Goddard, The Martian
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
NOTES: after much deliberation, I'm going with the previously nominated Nick Hornby over Phyllis Nagy because Carol might be seen more as a director's film...which is insane.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carter Burwell, Carol
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
NOTES: no Revenant score and after seeing Spotlight I'm not convinced it's prominent enough.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Love Me Like You Do”, Fifty Shades of Grey
“One Kind of Love”, Love & Mercy
“See You Again”, Furious 7
“Simple Song #3”, Youth
“Til It Happens to You”, The Hunting Ground
NOTES: bored...anyway, these are my predictions...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Inside Out
Shaun of the Sheep

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Robert Deakins, Sicario
Ed Lachman, Carol
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Cinderella
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star War: The Force Awakens

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight

BEST MAKEUP
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

BEST SOUND MIXING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
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Sabin
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Sabin »

I think the main thing holding Jennifer Jason Leigh back from winning is that The Hateful Eight seems like it's underperforming people's expectations a little. It doesn't appear that the Screen Actors Guild saw it in time to vote for her. Their vote will likely go to Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander. Leigh looks like a good bet to win the Golden Globe though. And if neither Mara or Vikander are nominated for Supporting, then between her work in The Hateful Eight and Anomalisa she's in a good position to win. Just like Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, you'll know her Oscar clip when you see it.
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The Original BJ
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by The Original BJ »

Having now seen The Hateful Eight (under review embargo on this one for a bit), I feel stronger about Jennifer Jason Leigh's nomination chances. In a year without the potential category fraud contenders, I'd say she'd be in for sure. But she has pretty solid credentials -- a year with multiple credits, the feeling that she's overdue, the only notable female role in an otherwise male ensemble, and a part that's pretty dominant in her movie's final reel.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Greg »

One thing I think could keep Vikander from being nominated in support is that many voters might compare her to Felicity Jones, who last year was nominated in lead.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Mister Tee »

flipp525 wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:OscarGuy, the point you suggest -- and which Okri alluded to previously -- regarding Vikander is one I've been thinking about now that I've seen her movie: because she fits so easily into the "wife in a biography" role, and because these roles often show up in support, her candidacy in the lower-tier category might be easier for people to stomach. (Whereas Mara is far more clearly the protagonist in Carol.) But a lot of actresses in similar roles were absent for significant chunks of their movies -- I'm thinking of Connelly in A Beautiful Mind, Harden in Pollock, Linney in Kinsey, Allen in Nixon. I could see why some might consider them leads, but don't think the supporting classification was outrageous. The Danish Girl, however, opens on Vikander, closes on Vikander, and gives the actress, if anything, the MORE dominant part -- when the title phrase is actually uttered in dialogue, it refers to her. Slotting her in support would be like demoting Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, or Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby, two other actresses who were absolutely on equal footing with their male co-stars.
I wonder how Valerine Perrine ended up in lead for Lenny the year that she did. Seems like equal footing for female co-leads back in the '70s happened more often (see also: Louise Fletcher in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest). Or, were these more instances of the lead actress line-ups were weak so more traditional "supporting wife" (or supporting psychotic nurse) roles were more easily recognized in the lead category?
It was largely because of the perceived shortage of lead female roles through that part of the 70s; even Talia Shire's clear supporting role in Rocky in '76 got bumped up to lead because the field was so thin. Shire, like Perrine, had won the supporting prize from both NY and NBR, bodies not given to category fraud, so it wasn't a scam -- the parts were viewed as clearly supporting (Fletcher, too -- though she didn't win, her votes in NY came in support). But Oscar voters wanted to beef up the lead categories so, for those three years, actresses who might well have won in support got pushed upward, with only Fletcher triumphing anyway.

Then came 1977, the year films with major women's roles in most of the best picture candidates, and the manipulation ceased -- to be replaced by its opposite in our current era.
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by flipp525 »

The Original BJ wrote:OscarGuy, the point you suggest -- and which Okri alluded to previously -- regarding Vikander is one I've been thinking about now that I've seen her movie: because she fits so easily into the "wife in a biography" role, and because these roles often show up in support, her candidacy in the lower-tier category might be easier for people to stomach. (Whereas Mara is far more clearly the protagonist in Carol.) But a lot of actresses in similar roles were absent for significant chunks of their movies -- I'm thinking of Connelly in A Beautiful Mind, Harden in Pollock, Linney in Kinsey, Allen in Nixon. I could see why some might consider them leads, but don't think the supporting classification was outrageous. The Danish Girl, however, opens on Vikander, closes on Vikander, and gives the actress, if anything, the MORE dominant part -- when the title phrase is actually uttered in dialogue, it refers to her. Slotting her in support would be like demoting Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, or Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby, two other actresses who were absolutely on equal footing with their male co-stars.
I wonder how Valerine Perrine ended up in lead for Lenny the year that she did. Seems like equal footing for female co-leads back in the '70s happened more often (see also: Louise Fletcher in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest). Or, were these more instances of the lead actress line-ups were weak so more traditional "supporting wife" (or supporting psychotic nurse) roles were more easily recognized in the lead category?
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by mlrg »

As I do every year, my pre-precursos final predictions for the top 6 categories:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Tod Haynes, Carol
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Michael Caine, Youth
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
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Re: Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

Post by Okri »

It will definitely be interesting. I just think things will line up more easily for Vikander than they will for Mara.
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