Ridiculously Early Nomination Predictions

[The Original BJ]

One thing to remember about SAG, though, is that they accept the studios' category placement 100%, which means voters only have the option to vote for Mara and Vikander as supporting actresses, or not at all. Given some of the names that have bizarrely shown up at SAG in support -- Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed, Dev Patel in Slumdog Millionaire -- it seems pretty clear those voters would rather endorse the fraud than ignore those candidates completely, so I think there's no way Mara and Vikander don't show up with that group. (And to be fair, I'm not sure if I were a SAG nominator, I would behave differently -- I think Mara rates a nomination this year, but if I couldn't vote for her as lead, I don't think I'd punish her by not voting for her at all.) So I won't really take the SAG outcome as any evidence about what groups who have a choice over categories might do (unless, somehow, one or both of these actresses miss at SAG completely.)

OscarGuy, the point you suggest -- and which Okri alluded to previously -- regarding Vikander is one I've been thinking about now that I've seen her movie: because she fits so easily into the "wife in a biography" role, and because these roles often show up in support, her candidacy in the lower-tier category might be easier for people to stomach. (Whereas Mara is far more clearly the protagonist in Carol.) But a lot of actresses in similar roles were absent for significant chunks of their movies -- I'm thinking of Connelly in A Beautiful Mind, Harden in Pollock, Linney in Kinsey, Allen in Nixon. I could see why some might consider them leads, but don't think the supporting classification was outrageous. The Danish Girl, however, opens on Vikander, closes on Vikander, and gives the actress, if anything, the MORE dominant part -- when the title phrase is actually uttered in dialogue, it refers to her. Slotting her in support would be like demoting Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, or Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby, two other actresses who were absolutely on equal footing with their male co-stars.

[CalWilliam]

I can see a scenario of Fonda winning her third for Youth,

I don't think she would win even in a TRUE Supporting race - if only because the movie she's in isn't a very Oscar-friendly one. The Ingrid Bergman comparison isn't completely wrong though.

Actually Bergman had more than one scene where she's fussing about. It was not just that one close-up scene where she talks about those "little brown babies".

[ITALIANO wrote]: True, but,like Fonda, she had been, after winning two Best Actress trophies, far from the Oscar radar for a certain time, and like Fonda - though for different reasons - she had been controversial in the past. She's in Orient Express more than Fonda is in Youth - yet even Fonda has two more scenes in the movie (at least in the Italian version), including one in an airplane which is also rather over-the-top. But then today a performance like Bergman's wouldn't even be nominated, and the same could happen to Fonda's.[/quote]


I've rewatched Murder on the Orient Express last week, and Ingrid's substantial performance IS her scene with Albert Finney. It's true she has more appearances, which are her first hilarious entrance; one line (''The law of God has been disobeyed'' and so on), and only physical presence scenes where she has noting to do but looking distressed: when she's eating with Lauren Bacall and Vanessa Redgrave or her reaction shots when Finney speaks to her in his final speech. And of course, her 5 seconds close-up when she toasts with Bisset and Bacall. That's all.
So, in terms of performance and character arc, both are equivalent to me. Even Brenda Morel's character is mentioned often throughout the film in order to let the audience know there's going to be a big showy scene. Youth would not be the same movie without Jane Fonda's character. Remove Bergman's in Lumet's film and the result is the same.

[ITALIANO]

I can see a scenario of Fonda winning her third for Youth,

I don't think she would win even in a TRUE Supporting race - if only because the movie she's in isn't a very Oscar-friendly one. The Ingrid Bergman comparison isn't completely wrong though.

Actually Bergman had more than one scene where she's fussing about. It was not just that one close-up scene where she talks about those "little brown babies".

True, but,like Fonda, she had been, after winning two Best Actress trophies, far from the Oscar radar for a certain time, and like Fonda - though for different reasons - she had been controversial in the past. She's in Orient Express more than Fonda is in Youth - yet even Fonda has two more scenes in the movie (at least in the Italian version), including one in an airplane which is also rather over-the-top. But then today a performance like Bergman's wouldn't even be nominated, and the same could happen to Fonda's.

[Reza]

I can see a scenario of Fonda winning her third for Youth,

I don't think she would win even in a TRUE Supporting race - if only because the movie she's in isn't a very Oscar-friendly one. The Ingrid Bergman comparison isn't completely wrong though.

Actually Bergman had more than one scene where she's fussing about. It was not just that one close-up scene where she talks about those "little brown babies".

[OscarGuy]

Fonda was brilliant in Grace & Frankie. The Emmys love movie stars in showy TV roles. She had a fantastic series of episodes for submission including a funny, but heart warming cancer-related episode. Her co-star Lily Tomlin was nominated and she was not. If Emmy voters can't even go for Fonda when she's doing career-best work, will Oscar voters really give a Paolo Sorrentino film enough attention to get her a nostalgic Oscar nomination? Count me as unimpressed with those chances.

That said, the Supporting Actress line-up is incredibly weak, which is why Mara is picking up so much traction there, but even the Spirit Awards ignored Harvey's wishes and voted Mara a Best Actress nominee. We'll know more when SAG announces in two weeks whether she'll be pushed to lead or support by a majority of voters. If even SAG sticks Mara in lead alongside Blanchett, I can then see a scenario where Harvey changes tacks and starts pushing her in lead. If SAG goes support, it won't matter what Globe voters do, she'll be seen as a threat for support and that will be the end of it.

As for other supporting contenders, I admit that the category is very difficult to find many viable candidates this year. It's surprising that a film that's been largely dismissed by now, Suffragette, might afford Streep another pointless nomination.

Worth noting for all those people pushing Vikander in lead (which I've seen in a few places) for The Danish Girl, Focus is putting her down as Supporting Actress. I can see that as a more appropriate category placement for a film like The Danish Girl than I can Mara for support for Carol.

If Spotlight really is as strong a contender as people say, look for a Rachel McAdams push in support. Virginia Madsen could get in for Joy, making it the third time Russell has gotten four acting category nominations (if he can get both Cooper and De Niro nominated again). If Mr. Holmes can get a sufficient push, Laura Linney could be a contender. Amy Ryan might get a surprise nomination for Bridge of Spies. Joan Allen, Kate Winslet and Helen Mirren should all be considered threats. Mirren has done similar to Streep in recent years getting nominated even when she probably shouldn't have been, so that's possible as well. And there are probably some other scenarios I'm not thinking of.

I'm wondering if Jennifer Jason Leigh could pull off a win for The Hateful Eight. In all his Oscar contention, Pulp Fiction was the first and only film he's made where an actress was nominated for acting. This is surprising considering how strong female characters are in his films. If Mara gets a lead nomination, Leigh has to be considered one of the key contenders to win in support.

[ITALIANO]

I can see a scenario of Fonda winning her third for Youth,

I don't think she would win even in a TRUE Supporting race - if only because the movie she's in isn't a very Oscar-friendly one. The Ingrid Bergman comparison isn't completely wrong though.

[CalWilliam]

Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are both definitely in....unless they get Kate Winslet'ed into Lead.. The next two spots are tricky. It could go to Jane Fonda for her small but very showy role in Youth but personally, I'd prefer it to be Rachel Weisz. However, I do think the Academy will go for Fonda.

I know that this is what will probably happen - but it will still be absurd. How can one compare what is essentially a cameo to what - I've heard - are actually leading roles? It may be even more unfair than Tatum O'Neal vs Madeline Kahn (though they were admittedly from the same movie). And at least Kahn's role - while short - had an arc and a number of scenes. Fonda gets into the movie, has this big ONE scene (all in close-up), and then more or less vanishes from sight. (

t's true that Rachel Weisz has a more developed supporting role, and she also has a strong scene, a monologue in fact, which she delivers quite well. And she's nominated for Best Actress - they don't have Best Supporting Actress - at the European Film Awards where Fonda, being American, wasn't eligible. But Fonda's bit is, of course, much showier. It's the kind of performance which in the 70s used to be nominated rather often. They all talk about Beatrice Straight because she won, but there were also Sylvia Miles in Farewell My Lovely, Jane Alexander in All the President's Men, Barbara Harris in Who is Harry Kellerman... It honestly happens less frequently today, and one of the reasons is that they often have to make room for roles which don't actually belong to the category. But Fonda is such a big name, they would obviously adore to have her back, and after so many years.

I have some faith in the Academy - but not too much. They will probably nominate just one between Mara and Vikander in Supporting - and, if so, it will probably be Vikander. The other will either be in the Leading race or - partly because of the confusing promotion - won't be nominated. But still, there's something wrong in a race where a few-minutes part is up against someone who appears in the majority of the scenes of the movie.

I share your thoughts, Marco. Let's assume for a moment that Mara is nominated in Lead and Vikander is left out. That would conform a category with true supporting performances, probably with Jason Leigh (given the lenght of The Hateful Eight and the men's predominance, though that's pure conjecture), Winslet, Allen, Fonda and Walters or Ladd. My point is that if Ingrid Bergman won her third one thanks to virtually one close-up single scene, I can see a scenario of Fonda winning her third for Youth, which won't bother me, actually. But yes, her nominated along with Vikander and Mara won't make any sense, and we'll be witnesses of one of the most embarrassing and preposterous categories ever.

[ITALIANO]

Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are both definitely in....unless they get Kate Winslet'ed into Lead.. The next two spots are tricky. It could go to Jane Fonda for her small but very showy role in Youth but personally, I'd prefer it to be Rachel Weisz. However, I do think the Academy will go for Fonda.

I know that this is what will probably happen - but it will still be absurd. How can one compare what is essentially a cameo to what - I've heard - are actually leading roles? It may be even more unfair than Tatum O'Neal vs Madeline Kahn (though they were admittedly from the same movie). And at least Kahn's role - while short - had an arc and a number of scenes. Fonda gets into the movie, has this big ONE scene (all in close-up), and then more or less vanishes from sight. (

t's true that Rachel Weisz has a more developed supporting role, and she also has a strong scene, a monologue in fact, which she delivers quite well. And she's nominated for Best Actress - they don't have Best Supporting Actress - at the European Film Awards where Fonda, being American, wasn't eligible. But Fonda's bit is, of course, much showier. It's the kind of performance which in the 70s used to be nominated rather often. They all talk about Beatrice Straight because she won, but there were also Sylvia Miles in Farewell My Lovely, Jane Alexander in All the President's Men, Barbara Harris in Who is Harry Kellerman... It honestly happens less frequently today, and one of the reasons is that they often have to make room for roles which don't actually belong to the category. But Fonda is such a big name, they would obviously adore to have her back, and after so many years.

I have some faith in the Academy - but not too much. They will probably nominate just one between Mara and Vikander in Supporting - and, if so, it will probably be Vikander. The other will either be in the Leading race or - partly because of the confusing promotion - won't be nominated. But still, there's something wrong in a race where a few-minutes part is up against someone who appears in the majority of the scenes of the movie.

[Reza]

My assessment of this year's Oscar contenders, pre-precursor awards:

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The only lock in this category is Mark Ruffalo. I can't see him missing out. The other four spots could easily be any conceivable combo of any of the following names *deep breath*: Paul Dano, Benicio Del Toro (who would be a stronger contender if Sicario was a stronger Best Picture contender), Robert De Niro (Joy), Bruce Dern (or any of the Hateful Eight guys), Joel Edgerton (I don't get it but whatever), Idris Elba, Tom Hardy, Michael Keaton, Harvey Keitel (Youth), Mark Rylance, Jason Segel and Jacob Tremblay. People are touting Sylvester Stallone for Creed but personally I don't see it happening. I can see Creed getting in Picture and Actor ahead of Stallone getting another Oscar nomination.

I'm surprised you have Mark Rylance so far down on your radar.

I've said this before here and I will repeat it. Mark Rylance will win the Oscar in this category.

[anonymous1980]

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The remaining spots could go to a veteran: Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, Charlotte Rampling, Blythe Danner or Meryl Streep.

For what, Ricki and the Flash?

Yes for simply being Meryl Streep but I doubt it will happen.

[flipp525]

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The remaining spots could go to a veteran: Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, Charlotte Rampling, Blythe Danner or Meryl Streep.

For what, Ricki and the Flash?

[anonymous1980]

My assessment of this year's Oscar contenders, pre-precursor awards:

BEST PICTURE/DIRECTOR:

The only two absolute locks I see are The Martian and Spotlight (....and I think the Oscar race will eventually be between these two), followed by Steve Jobs, Carol and Room in that order. Beyond that it gets murky. Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and The Danish Girl will most likely appeal to the more traditional Academy members. Inside Out and Mad Max: Fury Road will try and go for the well-received summer genre blockbuster slot (which arguably The Martian has stolen some of their thunder). Big question marks are The Revenant, The Hateful Eight and Joy. I think they will get in if they are well-received enough. The two well-received crime dramas Sicario and Black Mass and the two well-received music biopics Love & Mercy and Straight Outta Compton and the Netflix's Oscar contender Beasts of No Nation all desperately need for critics and guild groups to give them a boost AND for one or more of the aforementioned films to stumble. Son of Saul and Youth will probably try to fight for the high-brow cinephile vote among the Academy. Creed is getting good reviews and could make a play for the major categories but somehow, I doubt it will happen. Even more doubtful is the other franchise from the 70's, Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens. It has to be at the very least get an OMMMMGGGGGGGG!!!!! THAT'S AMAAAAZZZZIINNNNNG!!!!....from NON-Star Wars fans to even have a shot. For director, pretty much same thing. But I will say I think Spielberg, Inarittu and Tarantino are probably ahead of Lenny Abrahamson (if he gets in, I think Brie Larson has the Oscar). I also think if any director can be a lone director, it's George Miller. I think there are enough directors in the Director's Branch who will appreciate and respect what he did in Mad Max: Fury Road to give him a nomination even if the film doesn't get in Best Picture. I have a feeling the critics might help make it happen.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I think Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne and Leonardo DiCaprio are definitely in. I think Matt Damon is in too but I can also see him missing. The fifth spot is a free-for-all. I can see it going to Michael Caine, Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes), Tom Hanks, Tom Hardy (Legend), Geza Rohring (Son of Saul), Michael B. Jordan (Creed), Johnny Depp, Bryan Cranston, Will Smith or they might even pull a Keisha Castle-Hughes on Jacob Tremblay.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan are all definitely in. Two spots could have EASILY been filled by Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander if they are being campaigned in the right category. I think it's a definite possibility that one or even both of them could Kate Winslet their way in there somehow. Joy only needs to be decent and not a complete and total disaster for Jennifer Lawrence to get in and I think she will. Months ago I would say Carey Mulligan was in for Suffragette but due to the film's tepid reviews, I think she would have a better shot with Far from the Madding Crowd. The remaining spots could go to a veteran: Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, Charlotte Rampling, Blythe Danner or Meryl Streep. Or it could go to Emily Blunt (Sicario), who needs one or more aforementioned contenders to fumble AND critics and guilds support to get in. Possible crazy long shots include Bel Powley (Diary of a Teenage Girl), Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) and Melissa McCarthy (Spy).

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The only lock in this category is Mark Ruffalo. I can't see him missing out. The other four spots could easily be any conceivable combo of any of the following names *deep breath*: Paul Dano, Benicio Del Toro (who would be a stronger contender if Sicario was a stronger Best Picture contender), Robert De Niro (Joy), Bruce Dern (or any of the Hateful Eight guys), Joel Edgerton (I don't get it but whatever), Idris Elba, Tom Hardy, Michael Keaton, Harvey Keitel (Youth), Mark Rylance, Jason Segel and Jacob Tremblay. People are touting Sylvester Stallone for Creed but personally I don't see it happening. I can see Creed getting in Picture and Actor ahead of Stallone getting another Oscar nomination.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are both definitely in....unless they get Kate Winslet'ed into Lead. Speaking of which, I think Kate Winslet is also somewhat safe. The next two spots are tricky. It could go to Jane Fonda for her small but very showy role in Youth but personally, I'd prefer it to be Rachel Weisz. However, I do think the Academy will go for Fonda. Rachel McAdams and Jennifer Jason Leigh will have the benefit of being the only significant female character in their respective Oscar movies that will work in their advantage for scoring nominations. Can Elizabeth Banks and Kristen Stewart score nominations even if their films don't score anywhere else? Not sure. They will be needing critics awards. Joan Allen could score if the Academy goes gaga for Room. Other possibilities that could also score: Phylicia Rashad (Creed), Cynthia Nixon (James White), Diane Ladd (Joy) and Helen Mirren (Trumbo).

[Reza]

Does Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) have any chance for a nod this year or is she too left field to make the cut? I'm sure she will make the BAFTA list though.

I'm still heartbroken that Alicia Vikander's Testament performance has been forgotten.

[Precious Doll]

Anonymous,

I posted a comment on your predictions on imdb. Can you guess what my user name is?

(I think you will straight away).

I'll just add two more here: FYC Emory Cohen for Supporting Actor in Brooklyn (he is wonderful and in some ways the heart of the film). I loved that you selected Rams (even though I felt let down by the ending of the film) and hope it comes to fruition.

[anonymous1980]

My pre-Precursors Oscar Predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Michael Caine, Youth
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Matt Charman, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Pete Docter, Meg LaFauve, Josh Cooley and Ronnie del Carmen, Inside Out
Laszlo Nemes and Clara Royer, Son of Saul
Thomas McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Phyllis Nagy, Carol
Drew Goddard, The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu and Mark L. Smith, The Revenant
Emma Donoghue, Room
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was Here

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Assassin, Taiwan
Labyrinth of Lies, Germany
Mustang, France
Rams, Iceland
Son of Saul, Hungary

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Best of Enemies
The Look of Silence
Sherpa: Trouble in Everest
The Wolfpack

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mark Ping Lee-Bing, The Assassin
Edward Lachmann, Carol
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Assassin
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Crimson Peak
The Martian

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Michael Giacchino, Inside Out
Johan Johansson, Sicario

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Cold One", Ricki and the Flash
"Flashlight", Pitch Perfect 2
"See You Again", Furious 7
"Simple Song # 3", Youth
"Till It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
The Assassin
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Ant-Man
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIR STYLING
Black Mass
The Danish Girl
The Revenant