The Original BJ wrote:I think the biggest reason the air went out of the balloon is simply the dreariness of so many of the frontrunners.
Yes, this is the point. I don't know if American cinema has really been so bad in 2015, or if it's just the Academy's choices - but being an Oscar completist this year is tough. Very tough. I still have to see Spotlight and Brooklyn, but I'm not sure that I will find a truly good movie among the main nominees - the only exception being, of course, Carol. (I will also admit that there are good things in 45 Years, The Hateful Eight and The Big Short, but all these also have major flaws).
Also, I was never an especially daring predictor - I mean, I never saw Binoche over Bacall. But I have always been very personal, trusting my feelings and my insight, and I was often proven right. In the past.
In the last four or five year, EVERY TIME I have bet against the mass - and by mass I mean the mantras from the internet world - I have failed. So in a way I understand those who lazily predict Di Caprio-Larson-Stallone-Vikander. It may turn out this way - and, sadly, the main reason will be because people predict that it will turn out this way. It's like a circle.
I have recently seen The Hateful Eight. Only a few years ago, one could have even predicted a "surprise" win from Jennifer Jason Leigh as Best Supporting Actress - you know, a showy turn from a once-respected actress making a "big" come-back (and in an all-male cast). Today, it would be foolish to think it could remotely happen. And, of course, it WON'T happen.