Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Sonic Youth wrote:Oh, and if The Big Short wins, I predict people in future generations will call Steve Carroll's omission one of the biggest snubs in recent Oscar history, and wonder how Carroll - whose character and performance is the soul of the film - could have been left off. Today, it's easily explainable, and we can say that at the time it didn't feel like a snub, and a nomination wasn't expected. But in time, history will vindicate him.

I completely agree. Carrell gives the film's best performance and completely nails the role, bringing the audience into the rage without ever alienating them. And to make way in the Best Actor race for something like Bryan Cranston in Trumbo? That was just a very weak movie all around and Cranston gave a performance that I thought bordered on caricature, playing to the absolute last seat in the back of the theater (and perhaps beyond to the refreshments stand out in the lobby).

Sonic Youth wrote:For now, I'll all say is if The Big Short wins, it'll be the angriest film to win since... well, since 12 Years a Slave, which isn't a long time at all. But I can't think of too many explicitly political movies that have gone on to win Best PIcture.

Interesting that you say this (and I agree) because my dad--whose politics I would say definitely tend to fall right-of-center--liked both of those films a great deal. I think with The Big Short it may be the fact that he ended up on the bad end of a real-estate investment last year--it was supposed to be a retirement project to give him financial stabilty; now he's living month-to-month for the first time in almost forty years. (For what it's worth, he didn't actually get screwed by a bank or mortgage--WORSE, it was his own son-in-law.) He loved Room most of all, though, probably his favorite thing of the past few years that isn't Downton Abbey.

Worth noting that if The Big Short wins Best Picture, it would be Pitt's third film to win Best Picture. (He was listed as a producer on The Departed but Graham King got the solo Oscar credit.) Put that with Best Picture nominees like Moneyball, The Tree of Life and Selma (which he exec-produced), and I think you could make a case for him as one of the most important producers in mainstream Hollywood.

ETA: And yes, Carrell's snub will really stick out if The BIg Short goes on to become the Best Picture winner.

Um... I was shocked. I'll own up to it. I literally jumped when I saw the news, and I was getting ready for bed. Not because I was unaware of the possibilities of The Big Short asserting itself, or that I didn't agree with such a scenario. I did! But thinking something could win and thinking something will win are two entirely different things.

"So much on my mind, so little time to express it" has been the story of my life. Now I need to post a review for Spotlight AND The Big Short. For now, I'll all say is if The Big Short wins, it'll be the angriest film to win since... well, since 12 Years a Slave, which isn't a long time at all. But I can't think of too many explicitly political movies that have gone on to win Best PIcture. I don't mean movies that recreate an historical event through a political, contemporary filter, I don't mean movies that have a subtle political viewpoint obscured by nuance and "objectivity". I mean a movie whose director says "I'm not just gonna show you. I'm gonna tell you how I personally feel about it. I'm a proud leftist. I'm fucking enraged. That may put some of you off. I don't care." 12 Years a Slave was one and - in a very different way - so is The Big Short. If it were to win Best Picture, and then one or two others like it in the next few years, the '10s will have been a more interesting decade for Oscar winning films than anyone could have guessed.

Oh, and if The Big Short wins, I predict people in future generations will call Steve Carrell's omission one of the biggest snubs in recent Oscar history, and wonder how Carrell - whose character and performance is the soul of the film - could have been left off. Today, it's easily explainable, and we can say that at the time it didn't feel like a snub, and a nomination wasn't expected. But in time, history will vindicate him.

The Original BJ wrote:The Big Short.

Interesting that most of the Internet seems shocked by this

Maybe not exactly shocked - but I must admit that I am surprised. I really didn't expect this - from this group especially. I'm not disappointed - The Big Short, while probably not the movie I'd vote for, is at least an example of not-stupid and quite dynamic filmmaking; and this makes an already interesting Oscar race even more interesting.

Mister Tee wrote:

The Original BJ wrote:

Mister Tee wrote:And can we please remember PGA's many unfulfilled long-shots in the years prior: Moulin Rouge!, Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine?

It was actually The Aviator, not Sideways...though the point remains the same.

D'oh! -- I actually was ready to type The Aviator, but corrected myself, obviously suddenly thinking I was talking about SAG, It's called "fact-check yourself when you post at 2AM".

Don't beat yourself up. I do it all the time when I post in the middle of the night as you and a few others know only too well.

The Original BJ wrote:

Mister Tee wrote:And can we please remember PGA's many unfulfilled long-shots in the years prior: Moulin Rouge!, Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine?

It was actually The Aviator, not Sideways...though the point remains the same.

D'oh! -- I actually was ready to type The Aviator, but corrected myself, obviously suddenly thinking I was talking about SAG, It's called "fact-check yourself when you post at 2AM".

Mister Tee wrote:And can we please remember PGA's many unfulfilled long-shots in the years prior: Moulin Rouge!, Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine?

It was actually The Aviator, not Sideways...though the point remains the same.

I was just coming here to post the same -- not just the fact, but the commentary you offered.

The always-ready-to-jump-to-a-conclusion gang at Awards Daily is moaning "that's it/it's over", but, like BJ, I'll wait for more evidence. Sasha Stone has been promoting the idea that the PGA is infallible because "ever since the bump to ten, it's picked the winner" -- something she attributes to its using the same preferential vote as AMPAS. What she doesn't seem to notice is, the DGA has matched all but one of those picks, and the only one it "got wrong" was 2013 -- the year PGA upped its odds considerably by posting a tie. I don't view that half-point advantage over DGA a terribly significant one. And can we please remember PGA's many unfulfilled long-shots in the years prior: Moulin Rouge!, Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine?

It's possible The Big Short will sweep the Guilds a la Birdman -- though, as BJ says, Spotlight remains a good possibility at SAG, and DGA could go to any of the five (yes, even Ridley Scott, if sufficient sympathy for his Oscar omission can be evoked). I'll never understand the desire at AW to close the bidding after each round.

The Big Short.

Interesting that most of the Internet seems shocked by this, when a lot of us had been thinking a stealth attack from this movie was very possibly waiting in the wings.

The Big Short seems like the kind of movie that COULD sweep the major Guilds, which would clearly position it as the likely Oscar winner. But it seems more likely that it falls short in some places, and that's the outcome I'd root for, with Spotlight very possibly taking SAG, and, even more likely, something else winning the DGA. (Even though I dislike Mad Max, there'd be some kick to George Miller winning there, if it meant both Globes, PGA, DGA, and SAG all went to 5 different movies, wreaking sizable havoc on everyone's Oscar predictions.)