BAFTA Nominations

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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by CalWilliam »

flipp525 wrote:
I think the call from several posters that Spotlight is a "soft" frontrunner is very on point. I finally saw The Big Short last night and could very well see it taking home Best Picture. It just felt more "important" than Spotlight did (and actually more emotional).
I think exactly the opposite. Spotlight was way more emotional to me, and I don't consider anything in The Big Short remotely award-worthy (I think Carell is the standout, not Bale, who is getting as tiresome and gimmicky as it gets in his late performances), and its screenplay is just that kind of writing that has to be nominated because of the complexity of its subject matter rather than its actual quality. I mean, it's the typical movie that feels itself important and cool. Spotlight is not great, but is much better than The Big Short in my opinion, in every way. I'd really like to see Keaton nominated. Likewise, McCarthy would be a more deserving candidate in directing than McKay.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

So by this time last year, the five major guilds (minus DGA, not out til Tuesday) and BAFTA had coalesced around four films, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Birdman and Boyhood. The first two appeared on each of the groups' lists and the last two appeared on 5 out of 6. All four were eventual Best Picture nominees and all four were Oscar winners.

This year, there is only a single film to appear on 5 out of 6 lists, The Big Short.

I think the call from several posters that Spotlight is a "soft" frontrunner is very on point. I finally saw The Big Short last night and could very well see it taking home Best Picture. It just felt more "important" than Spotlight did (and actually more emotional).

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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

I was actually still awake early this morning when these were streamed. Afterward, I looked in at the Awards Watch gang -- and they seemed furious that BAFTA chose not to "clarify" (i.e., stultify) the race. Basically, everything that makes this year so much fun for most of us annoys them, because they live to "know" ahead of time what's going to happen. (Why being able to predict correctly because of someone else's selections should be any source of pride is beyond me.)

Anyway, from my point of view, this is great -- another set of nominees proving consensus is exceedingly hard to come by this year. Carol goes from a total snub by PGA and ADG to leading the field at BAFTA. We get the first inkling that my instinct about Fury Road isn't completely off the wall. Spotlight shows up but, again, with less than hoped. The Big Short gets everything it needs. New names turns up, and some that had been running the table (like Helen Mirren) are missing. Next Thursday morning is must-watch, for all the possibilities still open.

There are things here I don't like: way too much Bridge of Spies; Cranston over someone more deserving; Danish Girl showing up at all; Room getting the bare minimum. But there's plenty I do: the aforementioned Carol (a haul it really needed); Steve Jobs in its three key categories; Benicio his first big mention (in a set where Sicario otherwise did little). This batch would play better for me than most other slates I've seen so far, were Oscar to mostly repeat it.

Carell not scoring here where Big Short otherwise performed at high level isn't great news for him, but I still see the best actor category as soft around the edges ("edges" still meaning all save DiCaprio, though -- knock wood -- I'm feeling better about Fassbender as time goes on).

It seems weird for Vikander to (correctly) get cited as lead while Mara doesn't. Two possible reasons: 1) they already had Vikander in support for Ex Macina, and wanted to share the wealth; 2) Vikander was the sole and clear female lead in her film; voters may be conditioned to think "one-performance-per-gender", and that sealed Mara's placement. It's still up in the air whether undirected AMPAS voters will play it differently. (And who's more likely to win here? Vikander on the Teresa Wright/Fay Bainter precedent? Or Mara as representative of a 9-nominations films?)

Rampling's omission is no doubt hurtful, but her LA/National Society wins could still push her onto the AMPAS slate. For sure Maggie Smith won't carry over.

And yet another random five from the supporting actor game of musical chairs. I'd say Bale -- by virtue of showing up so often, and his film's prominence -- is actually second most likely to repeat, after Rylance. (I don't think the Globe lead placement will cause confusion any more than Catherine Zeta-Jones' did.) After that, chaos.

Best remark I saw at Awards Watch today: "Julie Walters does pretty much her whole performance sitting down. My dream role".

Odd that Ridley Scott would be a lone director; normally The Martian would be the opposite sort of film. But BJ is correct: Spotlight is a weakish best director candidate, and the omission could be repeated at AMPAS. Hugely happy to see Haynes here, but DGA, especially post-PGA, is a potential pitfall for him.

The screenplay categories could repeat at the Oscars and I wouldn't complain much.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by mlrg »

FilmFan720 wrote:
Also, because of all the category confusion this year, you have Christian Bale, Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara having picked up all three, but in different categories. That confusion could lead one or more of them to get left behind.
Of the three you mention Bale is the most vulnerable.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by FilmFan720 »

If Best Actor becomes a real cluster next week, Eddie Redmayne could possibly be pushed out too.

Also, because of all the category confusion this year, you have Christian Bale, Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara having picked up all three, but in different categories. That confusion could lead one or more of them to get left behind.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by mlrg »

FilmFan720 wrote:
mlrg wrote:Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson missed the nomination after having SAG-Globe-Bafta two years ago
Every year there's at least one who gets the triumvirate and misses a nod: Jake Gyllenhaal did last year, Hanks/Thompson/Bruhl the year before, Mirren/Swinton the year before that.
Bryan Cranston and Idris Elba are the only ones who seem to fit in this category this year.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

OscarGuy wrote:The Oscars don't have an Old Lady slot. At least not anymore.
They never did. I was being facetious.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by FilmFan720 »

mlrg wrote:Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson missed the nomination after having SAG-Globe-Bafta two years ago
Every year there's at least one who gets the triumvirate and misses a nod: Jake Gyllenhaal did last year, Hanks/Thompson/Bruhl the year before, Mirren/Swinton the year before that.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by mlrg »

Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson missed the nomination after having SAG-Globe-Bafta two years ago
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

FilmFan720 wrote:Remember that every year there is at least one Oscar acting nominee with no major precursor nomination (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)...last year there were 3!

Rampling seems to fit that bill pretty easily (as could Tom Hardy or Michael Keaton)
I have this odd feeling that it could be Charlize Theron for Mad Max: Fury Road in Best Actress.

But I'm hoping for Sarah Paulson (Carol).

Vikander is pretty much the only thing that works in The Danish Girl. But I don't think she needs a spot this year in that very crowded Best Actress field.

And where's Jacob Tremblay? Ruffalo, without a doubt, turns in the worst performance in Spotlight. So, of course, he's going to be the nominee.

I suppose that this Bryan Cranson Trumbo thing is definitely happening now? Who was the last person to get SAG-Globes-BAFTA only to miss out on an Oscar nomination? Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin?
Last edited by flipp525 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by FilmFan720 »

Remember that every year there is at least one Oscar acting nominee with no major precursor nomination (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)...last year there were 3!

Rampling seems to fit that bill pretty easily (as could Tom Hardy or Michael Keaton)
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by Uri »

This is England (or the UK, if we must). They love, Love, LOVE Maggie Smith. Not so much ex-patriot Rampling - there's not an animosity, but if they have to choose between these two (why, btw?) they'd go with Smith. In a heart beat.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by OscarGuy »

Here's where the Academy's rules may hurt Mara. I wrote about it in my last predictions article http://www.cinemasight.com/88th-oscars- ... ld-part-2/. Mara's probably getting in Best Supporting Actress and it's not entirely because of category fraud, but because of how tight the Best Actress competition is.

I think Italiano makes a fine point about Rampling. I'll go a step further and suggest that Riva's "comeback" was sudden and she was part of a major awards player. 45 Years, other than its Best British Film nomination, isn't. Rampling's popularity in England notwithstanding, she IS British and 45 Years has so much more dramatic weight than The Lady in the Van that if Rampling wasn't going to score with BAFTA, she has even less of a shot at the Oscars.

The Oscars don't have an Old Lady slot. At least not anymore. Maybe Smith will be replaced with Mara? That's wishful thinking on my part, but I hope it's true. If Rampling misses out so that Mara doesn't have to suffer at the hands of homosexism in support, I'll be just fine with that. Though, I really hope it's Vikander who misses out entirely.
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by ITALIANO »

Big Magilla wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
Despite my disdain for Mad Max, I am not celebrating its lack of nominations for either Best Picture or Best Director.
I am.
When you go through a bad experience you don't celebrate that it's over, you're just relieved. That was my point.
Oh ok :)
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Re: BAFTA Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

ITALIANO wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
Despite my disdain for Mad Max, I am not celebrating its lack of nominations for either Best Picture or Best Director.
I am.
When you go through a bad experience you don't celebrate that it's over, you're just relieved. That was my point.
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